Impact du déficit budgétaire sur l'inflation en RDC

TABLE DES MATIERES

EPIGRAPHE I

REMERCIEMENTS III

RESUME IV

SIGLES ET ABREVIATIONS V

INTRODUCTION GENERALE 1

0.1. CONTEXTE DE L'ÉTUDE 1

O.2. PROBLÉMATIQUE 2

0.3. HYPOTHÈSES 4

0.4. CHOIX ET INTÉRÊT DU SUJET 4

0.6. MÉTHODOLOGIE DU TRAVAIL 5

0.7. SUBDIVISION DU TRAVAIL 5

CHAPITRE PREMIER: CONSIDERATIONS THEORIQUES 6

I.1. NOTION SUR L'INFLATION 6

I.1.1. Définitions 6

I.1.2. Les différents types d'inflation 7

I.1.3. La monnaie, les prix et l'inflation 9

I.1.4. Approche Keynésienne face à la demande de monnaie 14

I. 2. NOTION SUR LE DÉFICIT BUDGÉTAIRE 15

I.2.1. LES DÉFICITS PUBLICS 16

I.3. LES CAUSES DE L'INFLATION 18

I.3.1. l'inflation induite par la demande 21

I.3.2. Les causes monétaires de l'inflation 23

CHAPITRE DEUXIÈME: LES DETERMINANTS DE L'INFLATION EN RDC 30

II. 1. PRÉSENTATION DES VARIABLES 30

II.1.1. Evolution de taux d'inflation en RDC 30

II.1.2. Evolution du Déficit Budgétaire en RDC 32

II.1.3. Evolution de la Masse monétaire en RDC 35

II.1.4. Le produit intérieur brut 37

II.1.5. Evolution du taux de change 41

CHAPITRE TROISIÈME: ESTIMATION EMPIRIQUE DE LA RELATION ENTRE L'INFLATION ET LE DEFICIT BUDGETAIRE 45

III.1. APPROCHE MÉTHODOLOGIQUE D'ANALYSE 45

III.2. APPROCHE ÉCONOMÉTRIQUE 46

III.2.1. Définition 46

III.2.2. Méthodologie 46

III.2.3. Etape de l'application de l'économétrie 47

III.2.4. Présentation du modèle d'étude 48

III.3. ESTIMATION DU MODÈLE D'ANALYSE 50

A. Méthode d'estimation 50

B. Test d'hypothèses classiques de modèles de régressions linéaires 51

III.3.1. Stationnarité des variables 51

A. Procédure et application du test de stationnarité 52

III.4. NOTION SUR LA CO-INTÉGRATION 56

III.4.1. ESTIMATION DU MODÈLE À LT 56

III.4.2. ESTIMATION DU MODÈLE À CORRECTION D'ERREUR À CT 60

III.5. IMPACT MACROÉCONOMIQUE DE L'AJUSTEMENT BUDGÉTAIRE 62

CONCLUSION GENERALE 69

BIBLIOGRAPHIE 73

TABLE DES MATIERES 75

ANNEXES

I. Recherche de la stationnarité des variables

- Vérification de la variable taux d'inflation

1. A niveau (modèle 3)

Null Hypothesis: LINF has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-1.983833	0.5890
Test critical values:	1% level		-4.252879
	5% level		-3.548490
	10% level		-3.207094
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LINF(-1)	-0.260013	0.131066	-1.983833	0.0565
D(LINF(-1))	0.028168	0.189743	0.148456	0.8830
C	1.383105	0.624354	2.215259	0.0345
@TREND(1970)	-0.008205	0.025055	-0.327471	0.7456

Modèle 2

Null Hypothesis: LINF has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-2.355318	0.1615
Test critical values:	1% level		-3.639407
	5% level		-2.951125
	10% level		-2.614300
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LINF(-1)	-0.277579	0.117852	-2.355318	0.0250
D(LINF(-1))	0.051755	0.172994	0.299174	0.7668
C	1.310180	0.574829	2.279252	0.0297

Modèle 1

Null Hypothesis: LINF has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
						t-Statistic		Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic						-0.605369		0.4477
Test critical values:		1% level				-2.634731
		5% level				-1.951000
		10% level				-1.610907
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
LINF(-1)		-0.028187		0.046562		-0.605369		0.5492
D(LINF(-1))		-0.047646		0.178042		-0.267612		0.7907

En différence 1^ère (modèle 3)

Null Hypothesis: D(LINF) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-3.649999	0.0406
Test critical values:	1% level		-4.262735
	5% level		-3.552973
	10% level		-3.209642
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LINF(-1))	-1.048597	0.287287	-3.649999	0.0010
D(LINF(-1),2)	-0.065005	0.190508	-0.341219	0.7354
C	0.467381	0.565600	0.826346	0.4154
@TREND(1970)	-0.023293	0.026862	-0.867123	0.3930

Modèle 2

Null Hypothesis: D(LINF) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-3.602888	0.0111
Test critical values:	1% level		-3.646342
	5% level		-2.954021
	10% level		-2.615817
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LINF(-1))	-0.954630	0.264962	-3.602888	0.0011
D(LINF(-1),2)	-0.114599	0.180967	-0.633258	0.5314
C	0.022051	0.235970	0.093447	0.9262

Modèle 1

Null Hypothesis: D(LINF) has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-3.660754	0.0006
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.636901
	5% level		-1.951332
	10% level		-1.610747
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LINF(-1))	-0.953829	0.260555	-3.660754	0.0009
D(LINF(-1),2)	-0.115129	0.177962	-0.646928	0.5224

La variable inflation est stationnaire en différence première avec un retard sans tendance ni constante.

- Vérification de la variable déficit budgétaire

A niveau (modèle 3)

Null Hypothesis: LDFB has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-1.434262	0.8321
Test critical values:	1% level		-4.252879
	5% level		-3.548490
	10% level		-3.207094
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LDFB(-1)	-0.167864	0.117039	-1.434262	0.1618
D(LDFB(-1))	-0.034833	0.188654	-0.184640	0.8548
C	4.446362	2.849062	1.560641	0.1291
@TREND(1970)	-0.103451	0.055508	-1.863710	0.0722

Modèle 2

Null Hypothesis: LDFB has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-0.377322	0.9021
Test critical values:	1% level		-3.639407
	5% level		-2.951125
	10% level		-2.614300
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LDFB(-1)	-0.036659	0.097157	-0.377322	0.7085
D(LDFB(-1))	-0.055434	0.195699	-0.283261	0.7789
C	0.221410	1.793227	0.123470	0.9025
Durbin-Watson stat	1.998045	Prob(F-statistic)		0.830226

Modèle 1

Null Hypothesis: LDFB has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-1.050762	0.2588
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.634731
	5% level		-1.951000
	10% level		-1.610907
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LDFB(-1)	-0.025042	0.023832	-1.050762	0.3012
D(LDFB(-1))	-0.065928	0.173546	-0.379887	0.7065

En différence 1^ère (modèle 3)

Null Hypothesis: D(LDFB) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-4.177125	0.0123
Test critical values:	1% level		-4.262735
	5% level		-3.552973
	10% level		-3.209642
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LDFB(-1))	-1.180660	0.282649	-4.177125	0.0002
D(LDFB(-1),2)	0.041309	0.187434	0.220390	0.8271
C	0.654341	1.030410	0.635030	0.5304
@TREND(1970)	-0.060213	0.050361	-1.195623	0.2415

Modèle 2

Null Hypothesis: D(LDFB) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-3.978315	0.0043
Test critical values:	1% level		-3.646342
	5% level		-2.954021
	10% level		-2.615817
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LDFB(-1))	-1.069690	0.268880	-3.978315	0.0004
D(LDFB(-1),2)	-0.017003	0.182269	-0.093287	0.9263
C	-0.444657	0.468987	-0.948123	0.3506

Modèle 1

Null Hypothesis: D(LDFB) has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-3.870062	0.0003
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.636901
	5% level		-1.951332
	10% level		-1.610747
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LDFB(-1))	-1.010326	0.261062	-3.870062	0.0005
D(LDFB(-1),2)	-0.046327	0.179332	-0.258331	0.7979

Le déficit budgétaire est stationnaire en différence 1^ère avec un retard sans tendance ni constante

- Vérification de la variable masse monétaire

A niveau (modèle 3)

			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-1.586993	0.7772
Test critical values:	1% level		-4.252879
	5% level		-3.548490
	10% level		-3.207094
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LMM(-1)	-0.260528	0.164164	-1.586993	0.1230
D(LMM(-1))	-0.264415	0.182331	-1.450191	0.1574
C	2.008562	1.012706	1.983362	0.0565
@TREND(1970)	0.088215	0.066299	1.330563	0.1934

Modèle 2

Null Hypothesis: LMM has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-0.973322	0.7515
Test critical values:	1% level		-3.639407
	5% level		-2.951125
	10% level		-2.614300
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LMM(-1)	-0.055217	0.056730	-0.973322	0.3379
D(LMM(-1))	-0.372864	0.165113	-2.258234	0.0311
C	1.082411	0.744662	1.453561	0.1561

Modèle 1

Null Hypothesis: LMM has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			1.304296	0.9484
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.634731
	5% level		-1.951000
	10% level		-1.610907
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LMM(-1)	0.023222	0.017804	1.304296	0.2014
D(LMM(-1))	-0.392014	0.167424	-2.341440	0.0256

En différence 1^ère (Modèle 3)

Null Hypothesis: D(LMM) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-2.793227	0.2095
Test critical values:	1% level		-4.262735
	5% level		-3.552973
	10% level		-3.209642
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LMM(-1))	-0.932512	0.333847	-2.793227	0.0091
D(LMM(-1),2)	-0.326884	0.203106	-1.609420	0.1184
C	0.540627	0.517574	1.044541	0.3049
@TREND(1970)	-0.016337	0.024091	-0.678139	0.5031

Modèle 2

Null Hypothesis: D(LMM) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-2.866819	0.0602
Test critical values:	1% level		-3.646342
	5% level		-2.954021
	10% level		-2.615817
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LMM(-1))	-0.946590	0.330188	-2.866819	0.0075
D(LMM(-1),2)	-0.314150	0.200408	-1.567554	0.1275
C	0.235577	0.253677	0.928651	0.3605

Modèle 1

Null Hypothesis: D(LMM) has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-2.749119	0.0075
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.636901
	5% level		-1.951332
	10% level		-1.610747
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LMM(-1))	-0.808162	0.293971	-2.749119	0.0099
D(LMM(-1),2)	-0.390534	0.182344	-2.141740	0.0402

La masse monétaire est stationnaire en différence 1^ère avec un retard sans tendance ni constante

- Vérification de la variable PIB

A niveau (modèle3)

			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-2.028793	0.5652
Test critical values:	1% level		-4.252879
	5% level		-3.548490
	10% level		-3.207094
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LPIB(-1)	-0.077073	0.037990	-2.028793	0.0514
D(LPIB(-1))	0.583907	0.143547	4.067723	0.0003
C	-0.870035	0.626415	-1.388912	0.1751
@TREND(1970)	0.102017	0.048244	2.114619	0.0429

En différence première

Modèle 3

			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-1.670420	0.7417
Test critical values:	1% level		-4.262735
	5% level		-3.552973
	10% level		-3.209642
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LPIB(-1))	-0.291739	0.174650	-1.670420	0.1056
D(LPIB(-1),2)	-0.244087	0.187700	-1.300410	0.2037
C	0.260886	0.376777	0.692414	0.4942
@TREND(1970)	0.001978	0.019931	0.099235	0.9216

Modèle 2

			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-1.856887	0.3477
Test critical values:	1% level		-3.646342
	5% level		-2.954021
	10% level		-2.615817
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LPIB(-1))	-0.283837	0.152857	-1.856887	0.0732
D(LPIB(-1),2)	-0.249558	0.176433	-1.414462	0.1675
C	0.290494	0.226262	1.283880	0.2090

Modèle 1.

			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-1.327927	0.1668
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.636901
	5% level		-1.951332
	10% level		-1.610747
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LPIB(-1))	-0.150022	0.112974	-1.327927	0.1939
D(LPIB(-1),2)	-0.315961	0.170437	-1.853829	0.0733

En deuxième différence (modèle 3)

			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-4.568501	0.0049
Test critical values:	1% level		-4.273277
	5% level		-3.557759
	10% level		-3.212361
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LPIB(-1),2)	-1.446271	0.316575	-4.568501	0.0001
D(LPIB(-1),3)	0.031720	0.189012	0.167823	0.8679
C	0.276889	0.430159	0.643690	0.5250
@TREND(1970)	-0.014188	0.019981	-0.710065	0.4835

Modèle 2

			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-4.552230	0.0010
Test critical values:	1% level		-3.653730
	5% level		-2.957110
	10% level		-2.617434
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LPIB(-1),2)	-1.409457	0.309619	-4.552230	0.0001
D(LPIB(-1),3)	0.013354	0.185626	0.071940	0.9431
C	0.000135	0.180439	0.000747	0.9994

Modèle 1

			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-4.630085	0.0000
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.639210
	5% level		-1.951687
	10% level		-1.610579
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LPIB(-1),2)	-1.409456	0.304412	-4.630085	0.0001
D(LPIB(-1),3)	0.013354	0.182506	0.073168	0.9422

Explication : Le PIB devient stationnaire en deuxième différence avec un retard sans tendance ni constante

- Vérification du Taux de change

A niveau (modèle 3)

Null Hypothesis: LTC has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-1.496153	0.8113
Test critical values:	1% level		-4.252879
	5% level		-3.548490
	10% level		-3.207094
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LTC(-1)	-0.189047	0.126355	-1.496153	0.1451
D(LTC(-1))	0.040997	0.192696	0.212752	0.8330
C	-0.246742	0.480222	-0.513807	0.6112
@TREND(1970)	0.034242	0.024570	1.393667	0.1737

Modèle 2

Null Hypothesis: LTC has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-1.077309	0.7133
Test critical values:	1% level		-3.639407
	5% level		-2.951125
	10% level		-2.614300
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LTC(-1)	-0.130246	0.120900	-1.077309	0.2897
D(LTC(-1))	0.042903	0.195598	0.219345	0.8278
C	0.314337	0.265738	1.182885	0.2458

Modèle 1

Null Hypothesis: LTC has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-0.551512	0.4708
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.634731
	5% level		-1.951000
	10% level		-1.610907
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LTC(-1)	-0.057864	0.104919	-0.551512	0.5851
D(LTC(-1))	0.014218	0.195295	0.072802	0.9424

En différence 1^ère (modèle 3)

			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-4.458156	0.0062
Test critical values:	1% level		-4.262735
	5% level		-3.552973
	10% level		-3.209642
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LTC(-1))	-1.212889	0.272061	-4.458156	0.0001
D(LTC(-1),2)	0.125316	0.185167	0.676773	0.5039
C	-0.300052	0.536623	-0.559148	0.5804
@TREND(1970)	0.026417	0.025815	1.023319	0.3146

Modèle 2

			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-4.337037	0.0017
Test critical values:	1% level		-3.646342
	5% level		-2.954021
	10% level		-2.615817
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LTC(-1))	-1.142505	0.263430	-4.337037	0.0002
D(LTC(-1),2)	0.088865	0.181851	0.488670	0.6286
C	0.190174	0.241998	0.785849	0.4381

Modèle 1

			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-4.291802	0.0001
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.636901
	5% level		-1.951332
	10% level		-1.610747
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LTC(-1))	-1.105039	0.257477	-4.291802	0.0002
D(LTC(-1),2)	0.070115	0.179164	0.391346	0.6982

Explication : Le taux de change est stationnaire en différence 1^ère avec un retard sans tendance ni constante

Vérification de la stationnarité de résidu

A niveau modèle 3

Null Hypothesis: RES has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-2.867407	0.1850
Test critical values:	1% level		-4.252879
	5% level		-3.548490
	10% level		-3.207094
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
RES(-1)	-0.446572	0.155741	-2.867407	0.0075
D(RES(-1))	0.101143	0.180587	0.560082	0.5796
C	0.199855	0.484249	0.412711	0.6828
@TREND(1970)	-0.007126	0.023336	-0.305366	0.7622

Modèle 2

Null Hypothesis: RES has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-3.039671	0.0412
Test critical values:	1% level		-3.639407
	5% level		-2.951125
	10% level		-2.614300
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
RES(-1)	-0.456387	0.150143	-3.039671	0.0048
D(RES(-1))	0.115370	0.171903	0.671133	0.5071
C	0.068127	0.216784	0.314263	0.7554

Modèle 1

Null Hypothesis: RES has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-3.075090	0.0031
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.634731
	5% level		-1.951000
	10% level		-1.610907
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
RES(-1)	-0.454943	0.147945	-3.075090	0.0043
D(RES(-1))	0.115926	0.169456	0.684108	0.4988
R-squared	0.233608	Mean dependent var		0.044892
Adjusted R-squared	0.209658	S.D. dependent var		1.400628
S.E. of regression	1.245175	Akaike info criterion		3.333451
Sum squared resid	49.61471	Schwarz criterion		3.423237
Log likelihood	-54.66867	Durbin-Watson stat		2.106007

Le terme d'erreur est stationnaire à niveau sans tendance ni constante avec un retard

Modèle à correction d'erreur

Le modèle à correction d'erreur à LT linf1 ldfb1 lpibv1

Dependent Variable: LINF1
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/12/08 Time: 17:03
Sample (adjusted): 1971 2005
Included observations: 35 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LDFB1	0.196176	0.034283	5.722264	0.0000
LPIBV1	0.082396	0.031754	2.594830	0.0140
R-squared	0.009729	Mean dependent var		1.773796
Adjusted R-squared	-0.020279	S.D. dependent var		1.216960
S.E. of regression	1.229238	Akaike info criterion		3.306111
Sum squared resid	49.86383	Schwarz criterion		3.394988
Log likelihood	-55.85694	Durbin-Watson stat		1.888629

Le modèle à CT

Linf1=C+d(ldfb,1)+d(ldfb,(-1),1)+d(lpib,2)+d(lpib(-1),2)+d(linf(-1),1)+res(-1)

Dependent Variable: D(LINF,1)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/12/08 Time: 12:41
Sample (adjusted): 1973 2005
Included observations: 33 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
C	0.104674	0.164448	0.636516	0.5300
D(LDFB,1)	0.068457	0.068682	0.996729	0.3281
D(LDFB(-1),1)	0.008329	0.068145	0.122227	0.9037
D(LPIB,2)	1.121372	0.240880	4.655306	0.0001
D(LPIB(-1),2)	0.593423	0.317619	1.868352	0.0730
D(LINF(-1),1)	-0.416173	0.227404	-1.830107	0.0787
RES(-1)	-0.335244	0.125692	-2.667187	0.0130
R-squared	0.613566	Mean dependent var		0.025352
Adjusted R-squared	0.524389	S.D. dependent var		1.324347
S.E. of regression	0.913329	Akaike info criterion		2.842391
Sum squared resid	21.68843	Schwarz criterion		3.159832
Log likelihood	-39.89945	F-statistic		6.880321
Durbin-Watson stat	2.180885	Prob(F-statistic)		0.000185

On enlève d'abord le déficit budgétaire avec un retard  et l'équation devient :

Linf1=C+d(ldfb,1)+d(lpib,2)+d(lpib(-1),2)+d(linf(-1),1)+res(-1)

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
C	0.101808	0.159771	0.637211	0.5294
D(LDFB,1)	0.068249	0.067397	1.012646	0.3202
D(LPIB,2)	1.125236	0.234400	4.800501	0.0001
D(LPIB(-1),2)	0.596919	0.310504	1.922417	0.0652
D(LINF(-1),1)	-0.416225	0.223217	-1.864667	0.0731
RES(-1)	-0.340242	0.116666	-2.916361	0.0070
R-squared	0.613344	Mean dependent var		0.025352
Adjusted R-squared	0.541741	S.D. dependent var		1.324347
S.E. of regression	0.896514	Akaike info criterion		2.782359
Sum squared resid	21.70090	Schwarz criterion		3.054452
Log likelihood	-39.90893	F-statistic		8.565914
Durbin-Watson stat	2.173124	Prob(F-statistic)		0.000059

Nous enlevons maintenant la C: Linf1=d(ldfb,1)+d(lpib,2)+d(lpib(-1),2)+d(linf(-1),1)+res(-1)

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LDFB,1)	0.059989	0.065433	0.916796	0.3671
D(LPIB,2)	1.116534	0.231506	4.822909	0.0000
D(LPIB(-1),2)	0.578286	0.305828	1.890884	0.0690
D(LINF(-1),1)	-0.410550	0.220661	-1.860549	0.0733
RES(-1)	-0.331251	0.114575	-2.891123	0.0073
R-squared	0.607530	Mean dependent var		0.025352
Adjusted R-squared	0.551462	S.D. dependent var		1.324347
S.E. of regression	0.886954	Akaike info criterion		2.736680
Sum squared resid	22.02724	Schwarz criterion		2.963423
Log likelihood	-40.15522	Durbin-Watson stat		2.146056

Nous enlèvons maintenant la d(ldfb,1): Linf1=d(ldfb,1)+d(lpib,2)+d(lpib(-1),2)+d(linf(-1),1)+res(-1)

Dependent Variable: D(LINF,1)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/12/08 Time: 12:44
Sample (adjusted): 1973 2005
Included observations: 33 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LPIB,2)	1.061878	0.223083	4.760019	0.0000
D(LPIB(-1),2)	0.483249	0.286932	1.684195	0.1029
D(LINF(-1),1)	-0.375117	0.216651	-1.731432	0.0940
RES(-1)	-0.317104	0.113219	-2.800808	0.0090
R-squared	0.595748	Mean dependent var		0.025352
Adjusted R-squared	0.553929	S.D. dependent var		1.324347
S.E. of regression	0.884512	Akaike info criterion		2.705650
Sum squared resid	22.68847	Schwarz criterion		2.887045
Log likelihood	-40.64323	Durbin-Watson stat		2.126368

Puis maintenant suivit de D(LPIB(-1),2)

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LPIB,2)	0.787873	0.157333	5.007692	0.0000
D(LINF(-1),1)	-0.080020	0.133645	-0.598752	0.5537
RES(-1)	-0.296963	0.106715	-2.782762	0.0091
R-squared	0.560293	Mean dependent var		0.050480
Adjusted R-squared	0.531925	S.D. dependent var		1.312332
S.E. of regression	0.897845	Akaike info criterion		2.706460
Sum squared resid	24.98992	Schwarz criterion		2.841138
Log likelihood	-43.00981	Durbin-Watson stat		2.116502

En fin nous avons le modèle final avec une force de rappel négatif situant entre -1 et 0 c'est-à-dire de ñ=-0,32

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LPIB,2)	0.761034	0.149293	5.097593	0.0000
RES(-1)	-0.321895	0.097266	-3.309451	0.0023
R-squared	0.555208	Mean dependent var		0.050480
Adjusted R-squared	0.541308	S.D. dependent var		1.312332
S.E. of regression	0.888800	Akaike info criterion		2.659134
Sum squared resid	25.27892	Schwarz criterion		2.748920
Log likelihood	-43.20528	Durbin-Watson stat		2.304354

Les évolutions de différentes variables

Années	Taux d'inflation	Déficit budgétaire en $	Masse monétaire en $	Taux de change	PIB en $
1970	1,7	2,74	1187	1,6701	7222373858
1971	3,9	10,8	1320	1,6701	7656078713
1972	9,4	54	1556	1,6701	7667649767
1973	24,5	152	1907	1,6701	8291587582
1974	43	420	2524	1,6701	8551162852
1975	45,4	320	3260	1,6701	8125175472
1976	71,2	593,43	4541	2,641	7693809737
1977	63,1	372,53	8618	2,8551	7752343750
1978	67,1	681,82	12695	2,7871	7337958376
1979	99	323,89	8986	5,7611	7369518074
1980	36,8	121,43	24415	9,331	7531272578
1981	40,9	388,13	33179	1,4608	7708296953
1982	35,3	574,91	52108	1,9162	7673017804
1983	100,8	201,71	97398	4,2955	7781338080
1984	33,7	99,64	139718	1,2041	8212507782
1985	26,5	38,08	170524	1,6621	8250930078
1986	32,8	177,52	112534	1,9871	8640143748
1987	99,5	233,1	121627	3,7459	8871323102
1988	121,5	62	130720	6,2343	8913052150
1989	95,8	89,46	139813	1,2712	8800208397
1990	264,9	712,5	148905	2,3947	8222183368
1991	4228,5	1458,27	157998	5,1946	7529789072
1992	2989,6	1089,73	167091	2,1514	6739160575
1993	4651,7	1546,33	14711	2,5144	5831459631
1994	9796,9	127,31	857742	0,0119	5604032892
1995	370,3	67,61	4388893	0,0702	5643261056
1996	572,9	70,63	24388738	0,5018	5585520626
1997	13,7	43,66	49630440	1,3134	5271779429
1998	134,8	174,29	141812038	1,6067	5186157447
1999	483,7	642,53	769406423	4,0183	4958038232
2000	511,2	239,72	75894258	21,8183	257869502300
2001	135,1	241,21	587111212	206,6201	365396422000
2002	15,8	276,03	35987987	346,4903	252896400000
2003	6,3	351,25	445789541	405,3401	328000000000
2004	7,07	378,16	25897369	401,0402	998629900000
2005	21,7	362,26	15857935	406,0901	518240200000

Source : Rapport du FMI et Banque Mondiale

REPUBLIQUE DEMOCRATIQUE DU CONGO

UNIVERSITE LIBRE DES PAYS DES GRANDS LACS

ULPGL-GOMA

B.P. 368 GOMA

FACULTE DES SCIENCES ECONOMIQUES ET DE GESTION

IMPACT DE DEFICIT BUDGETAIRE SUR L'INFLATION EN REPUBLIQUE DEMOCRATIQUE DU CONGO.

De 1970-2005 

Par :

Nielsen WITANENE MUSOMBWA

Mémoire présenté et défendu en vue de l'obtention de titre de licence en Sciences économiques et de Gestion

Option : Gestion des entreprises

Directeur : Prof. Gaston KIMBUANI MABELA.

Encadreur : CT. Jean-Pierre KISONIA MUSUBAO

Avril 2008

Nielsen WITANENE MUSOMBWA

ULPGL / GOMA

Gestion des entreprises

Année académique 2006-2007