Déterminants de long terme de dépenses publiques de l'Education en RDC de 1980 à 2009

TABLE DES MATIERES

REMERCIEMENTS ii

SIGLES ABBREVIATIONS iii

INTRODUCTION 4

0.1. ETAT DE LA QUESTION 4

0.2. PROBLEMATIQUE 5

0.3. HYPOTHESES 8

0.4. CHOIX ET INTERET DU SUJET 8

0.4.2. Sur le plan théorique 9

0.5. METHODOLOGIE 9

0.6. DELIMITATION DU TRAVAIL 10

0.7. DIVISION DU TRAVAIL 10

Chapitre I : REVUE DE LA LITTERATURE 11

I.1. THEORIE DU CAPITAL HUMAIN 11

I.2. LES THEORIES DE LA CROISSANCE ENDOGENE 13

I.3. ELEMENT DE THEORIE DE LA BUREAUCRATIE 16

I.3.1. Les caractéristiques et modèles de comportement bureaucratique 16

I.4. THEORIES DE LA CAPACITE FISCALE 17

I.5. LES DEPENSES PUBLIQUES 18

I.5.1 Définition. 18

I.5.2 Analyse des dépenses publiques selon le classement fonctionnel et catégoriel 19

I.5.3. Caractères généraux des dépenses publiques 20

I.5.4. Constitutifs des dépenses publiques 22

I.6. CROISSANCE DES DEPENSES PUBLIQUES 24

I.7. INDICATEUR DE DEVELOPPEMENT HUMAIN. 25

I.7. MESURE DU DEVELOPPEMENT HUMAIN. 25

I.7.1. Classification du PNUD 26

I.8. OBJECTIFS DU MILLENAIRE POUR LE DEVELOPPEMENT 28

I.9. DÉPENSES PUBLIQUES D'ÉDUCATION ET CROISSANCE UN MODÈLE DE CROISSANCE ENDOGÈNE AVEC ACCUMULATION DE CAPITAL HUMAIN DANS UN SECTEUR D'ÉDUCATION PUBLIQUE 29

I.10. DEPENSES PUBLIQUES EN CAPITAL ET CROISSANCE : UNE ETUDE DES PAYS EN DEVELOPPEMENT 31

Chapitre II : LE FINANCEMENT DU SECTEUR EDUCATIF CONGOLAIS 32

II.1. DEFINITION DE L'EDUCATION 32

II.1.1. Education sous l'optique économique 32

II.1.2. Les bienfaits de l'éducation 34

II.2. L'EFFICACITE EXTERNE MICRO ECONOMIQUE 35

II.2.1. La théorie du capital humain 35

II.2.2. La théorie du signal 36

II.2. 3. L'accroissement de la productivité de l'éducation 36

II.3. FINANCEMENT DU SECTEUR EDUCATIF CONGOLAIS 37

II.3.1. Caractères généraux de l'enseignement en R.D.C. 37

II.3.2. Politique de financement de structures éducatives en R.D.C. 38

II.3.2.3 Détermination de l'enseignement 45

Chapitre III. DETERMINANTS DES DEPENSES PUBLIQUES DE L'EDUCATION EN R.D.C 50

3.1. ANALYSE DE LA RELATION ENTRE LES DEPENSES PUBLIQUES DE L'EDUCATION ET SES DETERMINANTS EN R.D.C 50

3.1.1. Présentation du modèle 50

3.1.2. Spécification du modèle 50

3.1.3. Justification du choix du modèle et de la méthode d'estimation 52

3.1.4. Stationnarité des variables 53

3.1.5. Explications des variables du modèle 58

3.1.6. Présentation des résultats des différentes régressions suite au test de la stationnarité des séries entrant dans le modèle 65

Elles ont été soumises à l'analyse économétrique. 65

CONCLUSION GENERALE 68

BIBLIOGRAPHIE 70

1. OUVRAGES 70

3. DICTIONNAIRES ET ENCYCLOPEDIES 71

4. RAPPORTS ET REVUES 71

5. THESES ET MEMOIRES, TFS ET COURS 72

5. WEBOGRAPHIE 72

TABLE DES MATIERES 73

1. TEST DE STATIONNARITE DES DEPENSES PUBLIQUES DE L'EDUCATION

ADF Test Statistic		-4.513669		1% Critical Value*				-3.6852
				5% Critical Value				-2.9705
				10% Critical Value				-2.6242
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(DEPEDUC)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
DEPEDUC(-1)		-0.350123		0.077569		-4.513669		0.0001
D(DEPEDUC(-1))		-0.094389		0.151586		-0.622678		0.5391
C		0.336110		0.135407		2.482223		0.0201
R-squared		0.519447		Mean dependent var				-0.160714
Adjusted R-squared		0.481002		S.D. dependent var				0.691932
S.E. of regression		0.498478		Akaike info criterion				1.546443
Sum squared resid		6.212011		Schwarz criterion				1.689179
Log likelihood		-18.65020		F-statistic				13.51168
Durbin-Watson stat		1.708852		Prob(F-statistic)				0.000105
ADF Test Statistic		-5.355585		1% Critical Value*				-3.6959
				5% Critical Value				-2.9750
				10% Critical Value				-2.6265
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(DEPEDUC,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
D(DEPEDUC(-1))		-0.854280		0.159512		-5.355585		0.0000
D(DEPEDUC(-1),2)		-0.238090		0.130378		-1.826155		0.0803
C		-0.025749		0.101918		-0.252642		0.8027
R-squared		0.688062		Mean dependent var				0.114815
Adjusted R-squared		0.662067		S.D. dependent var				0.855167
S.E. of regression		0.497125		Akaike info criterion				1.544490
Sum squared resid		5.931207		Schwarz criterion				1.688472
Log likelihood		-17.85062		F-statistic				26.46922
Durbin-Watson stat		2.218740		Prob(F-statistic)				0.000001
ADF Test Statistic		-3.519050		1% Critical Value*				-2.6486
				5% Critical Value				-1.9535
				10% Critical Value				-1.6221
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(DEPEDUC)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
DEPEDUC(-1)		-0.219374		0.062339		-3.519050		0.0016
D(DEPEDUC(-1))		-0.012721		0.161995		-0.078526		0.9380
R-squared		0.401011		Mean dependent var				-0.160714
Adjusted R-squared		0.377973		S.D. dependent var				0.691932
S.E. of regression		0.545718		Akaike info criterion				1.695320
Sum squared resid		7.743006		Schwarz criterion				1.790477
Log likelihood		-21.73447		F-statistic				17.40646
Durbin-Watson stat		1.822962		Prob(F-statistic)				0.000298
ADF Test Statistic	-5.700875		1% Critical Value*				-2.6522
			5% Critical Value				-1.9540
			10% Critical Value				-1.6223
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(DEPEDUC,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
D(DEPEDUC(-1))	-0.840803		0.147487		-5.700875		0.0000
D(DEPEDUC(-1),2)	-0.245703		0.124450		-1.974309		0.0595
R-squared	0.687233		Mean dependent var				0.114815
Adjusted R-squared	0.674722		S.D. dependent var				0.855167
S.E. of regression	0.487729		Akaike info criterion				1.473072
Sum squared resid	5.946981		Schwarz criterion				1.569060
Log likelihood	-17.88647		F-statistic				54.93163
Durbin-Watson stat	2.230391		Prob(F-statistic)				0.000000
ADF Test Statistic		-3.319621		1% Critical Value*				-4.3226
				5% Critical Value				-3.5796
				10% Critical Value				-3.2239
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(DEPEDUC)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
DEPEDUC(-1)		-0.301906		0.090946		-3.319621		0.0029
D(DEPEDUC(-1))		-0.150238		0.161201		-0.931992		0.3606
C		-0.022110		0.378297		-0.058445		0.9539
@TREND(1980)		0.017539		0.017296		1.014033		0.3207
R-squared		0.539190		Mean dependent var				-0.160714
Adjusted R-squared		0.481588		S.D. dependent var				0.691932
S.E. of regression		0.498197		Akaike info criterion				1.575920
Sum squared resid		5.956796		Schwarz criterion				1.766234
Log likelihood		-18.06287		F-statistic				9.360723
Durbin-Watson stat		1.788321		Prob(F-statistic)				0.000280
ADF Test Statistic	-6.413394		1% Critical Value*				-4.3382
			5% Critical Value				-3.5867
			10% Critical Value				-3.2279
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(DEPEDUC,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
D(DEPEDUC(-1))	-1.284991		0.200361		-6.413394		0.0000
D(DEPEDUC(-1),2)	7.32E-05		0.138642		0.000528		0.9996
C	-0.867776		0.296600		-2.925748		0.0076
@TREND(1980)	0.046539		0.015647		2.974352		0.0068
R-squared	0.774716		Mean dependent var				0.114815
Adjusted R-squared	0.745331		S.D. dependent var				0.855167
S.E. of regression	0.431558		Akaike info criterion				1.293122
Sum squared resid	4.283567		Schwarz criterion				1.485098
Log likelihood	-13.45715		F-statistic				26.36445
Durbin-Watson stat	2.437269		Prob(F-statistic)				0.000000

2. TEST DE STATIONNARITE SUR TAUX D'ALPHABETISATION

ADF Test Statistic		-1.095485		1% Critical Value*				-3.6852
				5% Critical Value				-2.9705
				10% Critical Value				-2.6242
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(TA)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
TA(-1)		-0.062812		0.057337		-1.095485		0.2837
D(TA(-1))		-0.294545		0.194301		-1.515923		0.1421
C		1.929427		2.697965		0.715142		0.4811
R-squared		0.133157		Mean dependent var				-0.678571
Adjusted R-squared		0.063809		S.D. dependent var				3.059455
S.E. of regression		2.960236		Akaike info criterion				5.109372
Sum squared resid		219.0749		Schwarz criterion				5.252108
Log likelihood		-68.53120		F-statistic				1.920135
Durbin-Watson stat		1.927800		Prob(F-statistic)				0.167594
ADF Test Statistic		-3.879668		1% Critical Value*				-3.6959
				5% Critical Value				-2.9750
				10% Critical Value				-2.6265
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(TA,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
D(TA(-1))		-1.406747		0.362595		-3.879668		0.0007
D(TA(-1),2)		0.061353		0.220188		0.278638		0.7829
C		-0.980460		0.677316		-1.447567		0.1607
R-squared		0.643639		Mean dependent var				0.211111
Adjusted R-squared		0.613943		S.D. dependent var				4.938182
S.E. of regression		3.068266		Akaike info criterion				5.184542
Sum squared resid		225.9422		Schwarz criterion				5.328523
Log likelihood		-66.99131		F-statistic				21.67374
Durbin-Watson stat		1.830456		Prob(F-statistic)				0.000004
ADF Test Statistic	-1.057712		1% Critical Value*				-4.3226
			5% Critical Value				-3.5796
			10% Critical Value				-3.2239
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(TA)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
TA(-1)	-0.263592		0.249210		-1.057712		0.3007
D(TA(-1))	-0.178888		0.240284		-0.744486		0.4638
C	15.07340		16.10165		0.936140		0.3585
@TREND(1980)	-0.249994		0.301863		-0.828171		0.4157
R-squared	0.157241		Mean dependent var				-0.678571
Adjusted R-squared	0.051896		S.D. dependent var				3.059455
S.E. of regression	2.979011		Akaike info criterion				5.152623
Sum squared resid	212.9881		Schwarz criterion				5.342938
Log likelihood	-68.13673		F-statistic				1.492627
Durbin-Watson stat	1.846628		Prob(F-statistic)				0.241802
ADF Test Statistic		-3.875775		1% Critical Value*				-4.3382
				5% Critical Value				-3.5867
				10% Critical Value				-3.2279
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(TA,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
D(TA(-1))		-1.423111		0.367181		-3.875775		0.0008
D(TA(-1),2)		0.067623		0.222705		0.303644		0.7641
C		-1.862097		1.424656		-1.307050		0.2041
@TREND(1980)		0.054186		0.076791		0.705629		0.4875
R-squared		0.651190		Mean dependent var				0.211111
Adjusted R-squared		0.605694		S.D. dependent var				4.938182
S.E. of regression		3.100873		Akaike info criterion				5.237198
Sum squared resid		221.1546		Schwarz criterion				5.429174
Log likelihood		-66.70218		F-statistic				14.31285
Durbin-Watson stat		1.849528		Prob(F-statistic)				0.000018
ADF Test Statistic		-1.850377		1% Critical Value*				-2.6486
				5% Critical Value				-1.9535
				10% Critical Value				-1.6221
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(TA)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
TA(-1)		-0.022783		0.012313		-1.850377		0.0757
D(TA(-1))		-0.315913		0.190177		-1.661155		0.1087
R-squared		0.115423		Mean dependent var				-0.678571
Adjusted R-squared		0.081401		S.D. dependent var				3.059455
S.E. of regression		2.932290		Akaike info criterion				5.058194
Sum squared resid		223.5565		Schwarz criterion				5.153351
Log likelihood		-68.81471		F-statistic				3.392594
Durbin-Watson stat		1.923995		Prob(F-statistic)				0.076925
ADF Test Statistic		-3.559176		1% Critical Value*				-2.6522
				5% Critical Value				-1.9540
				10% Critical Value				-1.6223
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(TA,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
D(TA(-1))		-1.149997		0.323108		-3.559176		0.0015
D(TA(-1),2)		-0.072993		0.204001		-0.357808		0.7235
R-squared		0.612525		Mean dependent var				0.211111
Adjusted R-squared		0.597026		S.D. dependent var				4.938182
S.E. of regression		3.134768		Akaike info criterion				5.194175
Sum squared resid		245.6693		Schwarz criterion				5.290163
Log likelihood		-68.12136		F-statistic				39.52033
Durbin-Watson stat		1.919635		Prob(F-statistic)				0.000001

3. TEST DE STATIONNARITE SUR LA MASSE MONETAIRE

ADF Test Statistic			-0.068963			1% Critical Value*						-3.6852
						5% Critical Value						-2.9705
						10% Critical Value						-2.6242
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(MM)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable			Coefficient			Std. Error			t-Statistic			Prob.
MM(-1)			-0.010088			0.146280			-0.068963			0.9456
D(MM(-1))			-0.014951			0.245762			-0.060835			0.9520
C			0.190189			0.421691			0.451016			0.6559
R-squared			0.000811			Mean dependent var						0.159096
Adjusted R-squared			-0.079124			S.D. dependent var						0.832133
S.E. of regression			0.864428			Akaike info criterion						2.647459
Sum squared resid			18.68089			Schwarz criterion						2.790195
Log likelihood			-34.06443			F-statistic						0.010142
Durbin-Watson stat			1.998954			Prob(F-statistic)						0.989913
ADF Test Statistic			-3.419755			1% Critical Value*						-3.6959
						5% Critical Value						-2.9750
						10% Critical Value						-2.6265
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(MM,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable			Coefficient			Std. Error			t-Statistic			Prob.
D(MM(-1))			-0.999556			0.292289			-3.419755			0.0022
D(MM(-1),2)			-0.025129			0.204917			-0.122632			0.9034
C			0.158745			0.176206			0.900906			0.3766
R-squared			0.512601			Mean dependent var						-0.005982
Adjusted R-squared			0.471984			S.D. dependent var						1.213865
S.E. of regression			0.882051			Akaike info criterion						2.691305
Sum squared resid			18.67234			Schwarz criterion						2.835287
Log likelihood			-33.33262			F-statistic						12.62048
Durbin-Watson stat			1.975188			Prob(F-statistic)						0.000180
ADF Test Statistic	0.884471			1% Critical Value*						-2.6486
				5% Critical Value						-1.9535
				10% Critical Value						-1.6221
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(MM)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient			Std. Error			t-Statistic			Prob.
MM(-1)	0.050484			0.057078			0.884471			0.3845
D(MM(-1))	-0.066888			0.213761			-0.312912			0.7568
R-squared	-0.007319			Mean dependent var						0.159096
Adjusted R-squared	-0.046062			S.D. dependent var						0.832133
S.E. of regression	0.851083			Akaike info criterion						2.584134
Sum squared resid	18.83288			Schwarz criterion						2.679292
Log likelihood	-34.17788			Durbin-Watson stat						1.999707
ADF Test Statistic		-3.311495			1% Critical Value*						-2.6522
					5% Critical Value						-1.9540
					10% Critical Value						-1.6223
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(MM,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient			Std. Error			t-Statistic			Prob.
D(MM(-1))		-0.928944			0.280521			-3.311495			0.0028
D(MM(-1),2)		-0.059938			0.200482			-0.298969			0.7674
R-squared		0.496118			Mean dependent var						-0.005982
Adjusted R-squared		0.475963			S.D. dependent var						1.213865
S.E. of regression		0.878722			Akaike info criterion						2.650490
Sum squared resid		19.30380			Schwarz criterion						2.746478
Log likelihood		-33.78162			F-statistic						24.61480
Durbin-Watson stat		1.979791			Prob(F-statistic)						0.000041
ADF Test Statistic			-0.978481			1% Critical Value*						-4.3226
						5% Critical Value						-3.5796
						10% Critical Value						-3.2239
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(MM)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable			Coefficient			Std. Error			t-Statistic			Prob.
MM(-1)			-0.155562			0.158984			-0.978481			0.3376
D(MM(-1))			0.009746			0.234289			0.041598			0.9672
C			-0.075881			0.425217			-0.178453			0.8599
@TREND(1980)			0.043353			0.022870			1.895666			0.0701
R-squared			0.130937			Mean dependent var						0.159096
Adjusted R-squared			0.022304			S.D. dependent var						0.832133
S.E. of regression			0.822801			Akaike info criterion						2.579359
Sum squared resid			16.24805			Schwarz criterion						2.769674
Log likelihood			-32.11103			F-statistic						1.205312
Durbin-Watson stat			2.040684			Prob(F-statistic)						0.329119
ADF Test Statistic			-3.955722			1% Critical Value*						-4.3382
						5% Critical Value						-3.5867
						10% Critical Value						-3.2279
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(MM,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable			Coefficient			Std. Error			t-Statistic			Prob.
D(MM(-1))			-1.218054			0.307922			-3.955722			0.0006
D(MM(-1),2)			0.072540			0.204825			0.354156			0.7264
C			-0.442283			0.386362			-1.144736			0.2641
@TREND(1980)			0.039776			0.022984			1.730626			0.0969
R-squared			0.568757			Mean dependent var						-0.005982
Adjusted R-squared			0.512508			S.D. dependent var						1.213865
S.E. of regression			0.847528			Akaike info criterion						2.642967
Sum squared resid			16.52097			Schwarz criterion						2.834943
Log likelihood			-31.68005			F-statistic						10.11142
Durbin-Watson stat			1.994105			Prob(F-statistic)						0.000193

4. TEST DE STATIONNARITE SUR LE PIB PAR HABITANT

ADF Test Statistic		-0.909688		1% Critical Value*				-3.6852
				5% Critical Value				-2.9705
				10% Critical Value				-2.6242
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PIBHAB)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
PIBHAB(-1)		-0.088161		0.096913		-0.909688		0.3717
D(PIBHAB(-1))		0.204245		0.207278		0.985367		0.3339
C		22.79441		22.75838		1.001583		0.3261
R-squared		0.050966		Mean dependent var				4.185714
Adjusted R-squared		-0.024957		S.D. dependent var				45.00155
S.E. of regression		45.55965		Akaike info criterion				10.57688
Sum squared resid		51892.04		Schwarz criterion				10.71962
Log likelihood		-145.0763		F-statistic				0.671283
Durbin-Watson stat		2.072188		Prob(F-statistic)				0.520025
ADF Test Statistic		-2.862581		1% Critical Value*				-3.6959
				5% Critical Value				-2.9750
				10% Critical Value				-2.6265
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PIBHAB,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
D(PIBHAB(-1))		-0.759727		0.265399		-2.862581		0.0086
D(PIBHAB(-1),2)		-0.118404		0.202377		-0.585067		0.5640
C		3.707754		9.081999		0.408253		0.6867
R-squared		0.439607		Mean dependent var				0.600000
Adjusted R-squared		0.392907		S.D. dependent var				60.13422
S.E. of regression		46.85428		Akaike info criterion				10.63640
Sum squared resid		52687.76		Schwarz criterion				10.78038
Log likelihood		-140.5914		F-statistic				9.413525
Durbin-Watson stat		2.005876		Prob(F-statistic)				0.000959
ADF Test Statistic	-0.826392		1% Critical Value*				-4.3226
			5% Critical Value				-3.5796
			10% Critical Value				-3.2239
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PIBHAB)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
PIBHAB(-1)	-0.078475		0.094961		-0.826392		0.4167
D(PIBHAB(-1))	0.100553		0.214525		0.468724		0.6435
C	-4.119067		28.80294		-0.143009		0.8875
@TREND(1980)	1.624826		1.104513		1.471079		0.1543
R-squared	0.129462		Mean dependent var				4.185714
Adjusted R-squared	0.020645		S.D. dependent var				45.00155
S.E. of regression	44.53461		Akaike info criterion				10.56197
Sum squared resid	47599.96		Schwarz criterion				10.75229
Log likelihood	-143.8676		F-statistic				1.189717
Durbin-Watson stat	2.029557		Prob(F-statistic)				0.334666
ADF Test Statistic		-3.206669		1% Critical Value*				-4.3382
				5% Critical Value				-3.5867
				10% Critical Value				-3.2279
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PIBHAB,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
D(PIBHAB(-1))		-0.939718		0.293051		-3.206669		0.0039
D(PIBHAB(-1),2)		-0.025670		0.210518		-0.121935		0.9040
C		-23.17070		21.82107		-1.061850		0.2993
@TREND(1980)		1.725836		1.278402		1.349995		0.1902
R-squared		0.480751		Mean dependent var				0.600000
Adjusted R-squared		0.413023		S.D. dependent var				60.13422
S.E. of regression		46.07149		Akaike info criterion				10.63422
Sum squared resid		48819.38		Schwarz criterion				10.82619
Log likelihood		-139.5620		F-statistic				7.098248
Durbin-Watson stat		1.989783		Prob(F-statistic)				0.001521
ADF Test Statistic	0.044373		1% Critical Value*				-2.6486
			5% Critical Value				-1.9535
			10% Critical Value				-1.6221
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PIBHAB)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
PIBHAB(-1)	0.001633		0.036808		0.044373		0.9649
D(PIBHAB(-1))	0.145090		0.198697		0.730206		0.4718
R-squared	0.012884		Mean dependent var				4.185714
Adjusted R-squared	-0.025082		S.D. dependent var				45.00155
S.E. of regression	45.56242		Akaike info criterion				10.54479
Sum squared resid	53974.30		Schwarz criterion				10.63995
Log likelihood	-145.6271		F-statistic				0.339355
Durbin-Watson stat	2.033905		Prob(F-statistic)				0.565220
ADF Test Statistic	-2.882565		1% Critical Value*				-2.6522
			5% Critical Value				-1.9540
			10% Critical Value				-1.6223
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PIBHAB,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
D(PIBHAB(-1))	-0.746798		0.259074		-2.882565		0.0080
D(PIBHAB(-1),2)	-0.124857		0.198368		-0.629420		0.5348
R-squared	0.435715		Mean dependent var				0.600000
Adjusted R-squared	0.413143		S.D. dependent var				60.13422
S.E. of regression	46.06676		Akaike info criterion				10.56925
Sum squared resid	53053.66		Schwarz criterion				10.66524
Log likelihood	-140.6848		F-statistic				19.30384
Durbin-Watson stat	2.005185		Prob(F-statistic)				0.000179

6. TEST DE STATIONNARITE SUR L'INFLATION

ADF Test Statistic		-2.348890		1% Critical Value*				-3.6852
				5% Critical Value				-2.9705
				10% Critical Value				-2.6242
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(INFL)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
INFL(-1)		-0.490125		0.208662		-2.348890		0.0270
D(INFL(-1))		-0.109435		0.198848		-0.550347		0.5870
C		433.6236		416.4762		1.041173		0.3078
R-squared		0.283786		Mean dependent var				-0.921429
Adjusted R-squared		0.226488		S.D. dependent var				2244.557
S.E. of regression		1974.077		Akaike info criterion				18.11455
Sum squared resid		97424474		Schwarz criterion				18.25728
Log likelihood		-250.6036		F-statistic				4.952874
Durbin-Watson stat		2.011929		Prob(F-statistic)				0.015418
ADF Test Statistic		-5.074772		1% Critical Value*				-3.6959
				5% Critical Value				-2.9750
				10% Critical Value				-2.6265
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(INFL,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
D(INFL(-1))		-1.660856		0.327277		-5.074772		0.0000
D(INFL(-1),2)		0.226109		0.198838		1.137151		0.2667
C		-1.421173		417.3055		-0.003406		0.9973
R-squared		0.693786		Mean dependent var				0.322222
Adjusted R-squared		0.668268		S.D. dependent var				3764.803
S.E. of regression		2168.382		Akaike info criterion				18.30579
Sum squared resid		1.13E+08		Schwarz criterion				18.44977
Log likelihood		-244.1282		F-statistic				27.18828
Durbin-Watson stat		1.945416		Prob(F-statistic)				0.000001
ADF Test Statistic		-2.102135		1% Critical Value*				-2.6486
				5% Critical Value				-1.9535
				10% Critical Value				-1.6221
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(INFL)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
INFL(-1)		-0.393550		0.187215		-2.102135		0.0454
D(INFL(-1))		-0.157801		0.193658		-0.814845		0.4226
R-squared		0.252729		Mean dependent var				-0.921429
Adjusted R-squared		0.223988		S.D. dependent var				2244.557
S.E. of regression		1977.265		Akaike info criterion				18.08557
Sum squared resid		1.02E+08		Schwarz criterion				18.18072
Log likelihood		-251.1979		F-statistic				8.793284
Durbin-Watson stat		2.029853		Prob(F-statistic)				0.006401
ADF Test Statistic		-5.179415		1% Critical Value*				-2.6522
				5% Critical Value				-1.9540
				10% Critical Value				-1.6223
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(INFL,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
D(INFL(-1))		-1.660855		0.320665		-5.179415		0.0000
D(INFL(-1),2)		0.226108		0.194820		1.160598		0.2568
R-squared		0.693786		Mean dependent var				0.322222
Adjusted R-squared		0.681537		S.D. dependent var				3764.803
S.E. of regression		2124.572		Akaike info criterion				18.23172
Sum squared resid		1.13E+08		Schwarz criterion				18.32770
Log likelihood		-244.1282		F-statistic				56.64222
Durbin-Watson stat		1.945416		Prob(F-statistic)				0.000000
ADF Test Statistic		-2.334861		1% Critical Value*				-4.3226
				5% Critical Value				-3.5796
				10% Critical Value				-3.2239
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(INFL)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
Variable		Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
INFL(-1)		-0.495322		0.212142		-2.334861		0.0282
D(INFL(-1))		-0.110976		0.201941		-0.549547		0.5877
C		799.5090		850.5330		0.940009		0.3566
@TREND(1980)		-23.30827		47.00970		-0.495818		0.6245
R-squared		0.291047		Mean dependent var				-0.921429
Adjusted R-squared		0.202428		S.D. dependent var				2244.557
S.E. of regression		2004.543		Akaike info criterion				18.17578
Sum squared resid		96436658		Schwarz criterion				18.36610
Log likelihood		-250.4610		F-statistic				3.284254
Durbin-Watson stat		2.019323		Prob(F-statistic)				0.038095
ADF Test Statistic	-5.010071		1% Critical Value*				-4.3382
			5% Critical Value				-3.5867
			10% Critical Value				-3.2279
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(INFL,2)
Method: Least Squares
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient		Std. Error		t-Statistic		Prob.
D(INFL(-1))	-1.674402		0.334207		-5.010071		0.0000
D(INFL(-1),2)	0.232887		0.202784		1.148451		0.2626
C	392.8440		972.8175		0.403821		0.6901
@TREND(1980)	-24.64242		54.71159		-0.450406		0.6566
R-squared	0.696463		Mean dependent var				0.322222
Adjusted R-squared	0.656872		S.D. dependent var				3764.803
S.E. of regression	2205.315		Akaike info criterion				18.37108
Sum squared resid	1.12E+08		Schwarz criterion				18.56306
Log likelihood	-244.0096		F-statistic				17.59112
Durbin-Watson stat	1.947505		Prob(F-statistic)				0.000004

7. EQUATION 1

Dependent Variable: LOG(DEPEDUC)
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1980 2009
Included observations: 30
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
C	-18.24580	2.351001	-7.760865	0.0000
LOG(TA)	3.794513	0.727939	5.212677	0.0000
LOG(PIBHAB)	0.669700	0.408868	1.637938	0.1140
LOG(MM)	0.563233	0.434116	1.297425	0.2063
LOG(INFL)	-0.062544	0.073790	-0.847601	0.4047
R-squared	0.723476	Mean dependent var		0.020901
Adjusted R-squared	0.679233	S.D. dependent var		1.100813
S.E. of regression	0.623460	Akaike info criterion		2.043947
Sum squared resid	9.717553	Schwarz criterion		2.277480
Log likelihood	-25.65920	F-statistic		16.35205
Durbin-Watson stat	1.776407	Prob(F-statistic)		0.000001

8. EQUATION 2

Dependent Variable: LOG(DEPEDUC)
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1980 2009
Included observations: 30
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
C	-17.59611	2.391116	-7.358953	0.0000
LOG(TA)	4.524103	0.594089	7.615195	0.0000
LOG(MM)	1.046758	0.328433	3.187124	0.0037
LOG(INFL)	-0.134646	0.061108	-2.203406	0.0366
R-squared	0.693802	Mean dependent var		0.020901
Adjusted R-squared	0.658471	S.D. dependent var		1.100813
S.E. of regression	0.643320	Akaike info criterion		2.079217
Sum squared resid	10.76038	Schwarz criterion		2.266043
Log likelihood	-27.18826	F-statistic		19.63743
Durbin-Watson stat	1.981035	Prob(F-statistic)		0.000001

9. Tableau des données

ANNEE	TAUX D'INFLATION	MASSE MONETAIRE	TAUX D'ALPHABETISATION	PIB/Hab	EDUCATION
1980	36,8	2.084325995	60,2	279,9	9,1
1981	40,9	2.588977212	58,2	278,3	6,8
1982	35,3	2.7595998665	56,2	268,9	4,2
1983	100,8	3,304727429	57,8	264,4	3,8
1984	33,7	1,9988433719	58,5	270,5	3,6
1985	26,5	1,58069694	59,2	263,2	2,4
1986	32,8	2,249247289	57,9	266,8	3,5
1987	99,5	2,367542274	56,5	265,1	1,9
1988	121,5	1,792391689	55,2	257,6	1,6
1989	95,5	1,951628894	53,8	246	1,1
1990	264,99	2,852784869	52,5	222,2	1,3
1991	4228,5	3,163837941	51,1	196,8	0,9
1992	2989,6	3,037318907	49,7	170,2	0,8
1993	4651,7	3,189302182	48,2	142,4	0,9
1994	9796,9	2,104862518	46,8	132,2	1,2
1995	370,3	1,830010936	45,4	128,7	0,9
1996	570,3	1,848989206	44	123,4	0,8
1997	13,7	1,640083731	42,7	112,8	0,2
1998	134,8	2,24127247	41,3	112,7	0,4
1999	483,7	2,80789341	40	116,3	0,1
2000	511,2	2,379704269	28,6	114	0,3
2001	135,1	2,382071101	37,3	114,3	0,3
2002	15,8	2,440956285	35,9	115,6	0,4
2003	6,3	2,54616333	34,6	114,4	0,4
2004	7,07	2,577675589	33,2	339,5	0,4
2005	21,7	2,559020383	31,9	361,8	0,3
2006	18,2	6,36887306	32,8	385,4	0,3
2007	12	6,36887306	33,6	390,01	2,1
2008	12	7,034545381	35,5	388,7	1,8
2009	15,1	7,043651342	39,9	395,5	2,3