Public debt of Togo: an attempt to identify the explanatory factors

• Acknowledgement
  
• 1 Abstract
  
• 2 Methodology and research question & brief presentation of Togo
  
  • 2.1 Methodology and research question
    
  • 2.2 Brief presentation of Togo
    
• 3 PUBLIC DEBIT: FROM LITERATURE TO THE SITUATION IN TOGO
  
  • 3.1 PUBLIC DEBT AND ITS EFFECTS IN LITERATURE
    
• 4 Introduction to public debt, sustainability or debt viability
  
  • 4.1.1.1 Notions of debt and debt sustainability
    
    • 4.1.1.1.1 Notions of debt
      
    • 4.1.1.1.2 Concept of debt sustainability or viability
      
  • 4.1.1.2 The different concepts of public debt
    
    • 4.1.1.2.1 Classical and Keynesian views
      
    • 4.1.1.2.2 The other conceptions
      
      • 4.1.1.2.2.1 Alternative approaches to Keynesian theory
        
      • 4.1.1.2.2.2 The concept of the school of rational expectations
        
  • 4.1.2 CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES AND MOTIVES OF PUBLIC DEBT
    
    • 4.1.2.1 Causes of public debt
      
      • 4.1.2.1.1 Exogenous causes
        
      • 4.1.2.1.2 Endogenous causes
        
    • 4.1.2.2 Consequences, motives and effectiveness of public debt
      
      • 4.1.2.2.1 Consequences of public debt
        
        • 4.1.2.2.1.1 Economic consequences
          
        • 4.1.2.2.1.1.1 Economic effectiveness problems
          
        • 4.1.2.2.1.2 Social and political consequences
          
      • 4.1.2.2.2 Reasons for debt
        
        • 4.1.2.2.2.1 The reasons for debt
          
      • 4.1.2.2.3 Effectiveness of external debt
        
  • 4.2 DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE LEVEL OF PUBLIC DEBT IN TOGO
    
    • 4.2.1 STRUCTURE OF THE DEBT AND DESCRIPTIVE STUDY OF THE EXTERNAL DEBT OF TOGO
      
      • 4.2.1.1 Structure of the public debt, external debt structure and its evolution
        
        • 4.2.1.1.1 Structure of public / government debt
          
        • 4.2.1.1.2 Structure and evolution of the external debt
          
          • 4.2.1.1.2.1 Structure of the external public debt
            
          • 4.2.1.1.2.2 Evolution of Togo's external debt between 1980 and 2008
            
        • 4.2.1.1.3 Evolution of some weighty indicators of the external debt from 1980 to 2008
          
          • 4.2.1.1.3.1 Evolution of the outstanding external debt / GDP
            
          • 4.2.1.1.3.2 2. Evolution of the ratio of external debt service /exports
            
          • 4.2.1.1.3.3 Evolution of the external debt / exports ratio
            
          • 4.2.1.1.3.4 Evolution of external public debt to GDP
            
          • 4.2.1.1.3.5 Evolution of the degree of openness
            
          • 4.2.1.1.3.6 Evolution of export in relation to GDP
            
    • 4.2.2 Domestic debt
      
      • 4.2.2.1 STRUCTURE AND EVOLUTION OF DOMESTIC DEBT
        
        • 4.2.2.1.1 Structure of the domestic public debt
          
        • 4.2.2.1.2 Comparative evolution of Togo's domestic debt and budget deficit between 1990 and 2008
          
      • 4.2.2.2 Evolution of some ratios of domestic debt and domestic debt causes
        
        • 4.2.2.2.1 Evolution of some ratios domestic debt
          
          • 4.2.2.2.1.1 Trend of the domestic debt / GDP ratio
            
          • 4.2.2.2.1.2 Trend of the domestic debt/ Revenue ratio
            
        • 4.2.2.2.2 CAUSES OF DOMESTIC DEBT
          
          • 4.2.2.2.2.1 Structural causes
            
          • 4.2.2.2.2.2 Cyclical causes
            
• 5 ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE DEBT
  
  • 5.1 EMPIRICAL AND ECONOMETRIC ANALYSES
    
    • 5.1.1 RESULTS OF EMPIRICAL ANALYSES AND SPECIFICATION OF MODEL
      
      • 5.1.1.1 EMPIRICAL ANALYSES RESULTS
        
      • 5.1.1.2 Mode specification and series study
        
        • 5.1.1.2.1 Model specification
          
          • 5.1.1.2.1.1 The model variables
            
          • 5.1.1.2.1.2 Mathematical forms of the model
            
          • 5.1.1.2.1.3 Estimate of the function of Togo's external debt
            
          • 5.1.1.2.1.4 Source of study data
            
        • 5.1.1.2.2 Studies of series
          
          • 5.1.1.2.2.1 Study of the Stationarity of the series
            
          • 5.1.1.2.2.2 Johansen co-integration test
            
          • 5.1.1.2.2.3 Choice of technique
            
    • 5.1.2 Estimation and model validation
      
      • 5.1.2.1 Model estimation
        
      • 5.1.2.2 Model validation
        
        • 5.1.2.2.1 Statistical validity
          
          • 5.1.2.2.1.1 Interpretation of the coefficient of determination
            
          • 5.1.2.2.1.1.1 Test of significance
            
        • 5.1.2.2.2 Econometric validity
          
          • 5.1.2.2.2.1 Test of multicollinearity
            
          • 5.1.2.2.2.2 Test of errors homoscedasticity
            
          • 5.1.2.2.2.2.1 White testing
            
          • 5.1.2.2.2.2.2 ARCH Test
            
          • 5.1.2.2.2.2.3 Breusch - Godfirey Correlation test of errors
            
          • 5.1.2.2.2.2.4 Ramsey specification test
            
          • 5.1.2.2.2.2.5 Jarque - Bera test
            
          • 5.1.2.2.2.2.6 Analysis of the Model's stability
            
          • 5.1.2.2.2.2.6.1 Cusum stability test (Brown, Durbin, Ewans)
            
          • 5.1.2.2.2.2.6.2 Cusum square test
            
          • 5.1.2.2.2.2.7 Evaluation of model predictive power
            
  • 5.2 INTERPRETATION OF FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF ECONOMIC POLICIES
    
    • 5.2.1 Interpretation of results
      
      • 5.2.1.1 Results of estimations and interpretation of error correction coefficient
        
        • 5.2.1.1.1 Estimation results
          
        • 5.2.1.1.2 Interpretation of the Error correction model
          
      • 5.2.1.2 Interpretation of elasticity
        
        • 5.2.1.2.1 Interpretation of long-term elasticity or semi-elasticity
          
        • 5.2.1.2.2 Interpretation of short-term elasticity
          
    • 5.2.2 ECONOMIC POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
      
      • 5.2.2.1 Framework of debt
        
        • 5.2.2.1.1 Terms of debt management strategy
          
          • 5.2.2.1.1.1 Regarding the choice of creditors
            
      • 5.2.2.2 Economic development framework
        
        • 5.2.2.2.1 In the field of economic growth
          
        • 5.2.2.2.2 In business