Annexe1-Tableau 10
Vector Error Correction Estimates
Date: 08/08/12 Time: 13:21
Sample (adjusted): 1973 2010
Included observations: 38 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
Cointegrating Eq: CointEq1
CYCLE_GOU(-1) 1.000000
CYCLE_CO(-1) -1.285549
(0.13797)
[-9.31791]
C 1.96E+08
Error Correction: D(CYCLE_GOU) D(CYCLE_CO)
CointEq1 -0.999762 0.030172
(0.35867) (0.50111)
UNIVERSITE PEDAGOGIQUE NATIONALE : Analyse
économétrique de l'efficacité des politiques
budgétaires. Cas du Brésil, du Congo et de la RD Congo
(1970-2010) Par N'SUNDI ZALA Hugo
Page 94 sur 123
[-2.78743] [ 0.06021]
D(CYCLE_GOU(-1)) 0.842987 0.656825
(0.31495) (0.44003)
[ 2.67656] [ 1.49268]
D(CYCLE_GOU(-2)) 0.402906 0.191983
(0.29187) (0.40779)
[ 1.38042] [ 0.47079]
D(CYCLE_CO(-1)) -1.261100 -1.062594
(0.41117) (0.57446)
[-3.06710] [-1.84972]
D(CYCLE_CO(-2)) -0.565413 -0.648328
(0.47372) (0.66186)
[-1.19355] [-0.97956]
C 9.92E+08 1.15E+09
(2.8E+09) (3.9E+09)
[ 0.35182] [ 0.29300]
R-squared 0.356140 0.459750
Adj. R-squared 0.255537 0.375336
Sum sq. resids 9.36E+21 1.83E+22
S.E. equation 1.71E+10 2.39E+10
F-statistic 3.540049 5.446366
Log likelihood -946.0332 -958.7414
Akaike AIC 50.10701 50.77586
Schwarz SC 50.36558 51.03443
Mean dependent 1.74E+09 1.28E+09
S.D. dependent 1.98E+10 3.02E+10
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 7.35E+40
Determinant resid covariance 5.21E+40
Log likelihood -1889.170
Akaike information criterion 100.1668
Schwarz criterion 100.7702
Annexe1-Tableau 11
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 07/14/12 Time: 19:34
Sample (adjusted): 1973 2010
Included observations: 38 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
CYCLE_GOUV CYCLE_COM CYCLE_INVEST
CYCLE_GOUV(-1) 0.606797 0.641558 0.394950
(0.26172) (0.39345) (0.42943)
[ 2.31847] [ 1.63058] [ 0.91970]
CYCLE_GOUV(-2) -0.227188 -0.195635 -0.079544
UNIVERSITE PEDAGOGIQUE NATIONALE : Analyse
économétrique de l'efficacité des politiques
budgétaires. Cas du Brésil, du Congo et de la RD Congo
(1970-2010) Par N'SUNDI ZALA Hugo
Page 95 sur 123
|
CYCLE_COM(-1)
|
(0.25479)
[-0.89167]
-0.583705
(0.23233)
[-2.51236]
|
(0.38303)
[-0.51076]
-1.172036
(0.34927)
[-3.35567]
|
(0.41806)
[-0.19027]
-0.868405
(0.38121)
[-2.27802]
|
|
CYCLE_COM(-2)
|
0.288857
|
0.127789
|
0.517506
|
|
(0.21762)
|
(0.32716)
|
(0.35708)
|
|
[ 1.32732]
|
[ 0.39060]
|
[ 1.44929]
|
|
CYCLE_INVEST(-1)
|
0.528668
|
-0.035889
|
0.781425
|
|
(0.25604)
|
(0.38492)
|
(0.42012)
|
|
[ 2.06475]
|
[-0.09324]
|
[ 1.86002]
|
|
CYCLE_INVEST(-2)
|
-0.390812
|
-0.828807
|
-0.673802
|
|
(0.29689)
|
(0.44631)
|
(0.48713)
|
|
[-1.31637]
|
[-1.85700]
|
[-1.38321]
|
|
C
|
-2.41E+08
|
-6.40E+08
|
-8.52E+08
|
|
(2.4E+09)
|
(3.6E+09)
|
(4.0E+09)
|
|
[-0.10010]
|
[-0.17666]
|
[-0.21575]
|
|
R-squared
|
0.591791
|
0.564036
|
0.410641
|
|
Adj. R-squared
|
0.512783
|
0.479655
|
0.296572
|
|
Sum sq. resids
|
6.53E+21
|
1.47E+22
|
1.76E+22
|
|
S.E. equation
|
1.45E+10
|
2.18E+10
|
2.38E+10
|
|
F-statistic
|
7.490252
|
6.684454
|
3.599923
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-939.1748
|
-954.6665
|
-957.9917
|
|
Akaike AIC
|
49.79867
|
50.61402
|
50.78903
|
|
Schwarz SC
|
50.10033
|
50.91568
|
51.09070
|
|
Mean dependent
|
56060238
|
1.28E+09
|
1.72E+08
|
|
S.D. dependent
|
2.08E+10
|
3.02E+10
|
2.84E+10
|
|
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
|
|
5.52E+60
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance
|
|
3.00E+60
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
|
-2807.567
|
|
|
Akaike information criterion
|
|
148.8719
|
|
|
Schwarz criterion
|
|
149.7769
|
|
ANNEXE 2. CONGO
F. BASE DE DONNES DE L'ETUDE
| 
