Annexe1-Tableau 7
Vector Error Correction Estimates
Date: 08/08/12 Time: 13:49
Sample (adjusted): 1973 2010
Included observations: 38 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
Cointegrating Eq: CointEq1
CYCLE_GOU(-1) 1.000000
CYCLE_BA(-1) 2.146769
(0.41413)
[ 5.18380]
C 5.65E+08
Error Correction: D(CYCLE_GOU) D(CYCLE_BA)
CointEq1 -0.148650 -0.201283
(0.28458) (0.07998)
[-0.52234] [-2.51670]
D(CYCLE_GOU(-1)) 0.246665 0.111681
(0.31063) (0.08730)
[ 0.79408] [ 1.27928]
D(CYCLE_GOU(-2)) 0.421526 -0.001181
(0.31748) (0.08922)
[ 1.32773] [-0.01324]
D(CYCLE_BA(-1)) 0.806170 0.249061
(0.82275) (0.23123)
[ 0.97985] [ 1.07714]
D(CYCLE_BA(-2)) 0.501978 -0.174917
(0.84537) (0.23758)
[ 0.59380] [-0.73624]
UNIVERSITE PEDAGOGIQUE NATIONALE : Analyse
économétrique de l'efficacité des politiques
budgétaires. Cas du Brésil, du Congo et de la RD Congo
(1970-2010) Par N'SUNDI ZALA Hugo
Page 91 sur 123
C 1.61E+09 -6.60E+08
(3.3E+09) (9.3E+08)
[ 0.48548] [-0.70914]
R-squared 0.086514 0.291555
Adj. R-squared -0.056219 0.180860
Sum sq. resids 1.33E+22 1.05E+21
S.E. equation 2.04E+10 5.73E+09
F-statistic 0.606125 2.633868
Log likelihood -952.6791 -904.4474
Akaike AIC 50.45680 47.91829
Schwarz SC 50.71536 48.17685
Mean dependent 1.74E+09 -6.58E+08
S.D. dependent 1.98E+10 6.33E+09
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 4.25E+39
Determinant resid covariance 3.01E+39
Log likelihood -1835.005
Akaike information criterion 97.31606
Schwarz criterion 97.91938
Annexe1-Tableau 8
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 07/14/12 Time: 19:25
Sample (adjusted): 1973 2010
Included observations: 38 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
CYCLE_GOUV CYCLE_BAL CYCLE_CONS
CYCLE_GOUV(-1) -0.477235 0.380215 -3.224577
(0.48848) (0.19816) (1.62680)
[-0.97699] [ 1.91868] [-1.98216]
CYCLE_GOUV(-2) -0.863887 0.132409 -2.309381
(0.53555) (0.21726) (1.78358)
[-1.61307] [ 0.60944] [-1.29480]
CYCLE_BAL(-1) 0.416652 0.275892 0.748439
(0.65831) (0.26706) (2.19241)
[ 0.63291] [ 1.03306] [ 0.34138]
CYCLE_BAL(-2) -0.317822 -0.125089 -2.225116
(0.57985) (0.23523) (1.93112)
[-0.54811] [-0.53176] [-1.15224]
CYCLE_CONS(-1) 0.368153 -0.106107 1.756443
(0.15983) (0.06484) (0.53228)
[ 2.30344] [-1.63648] [ 3.29983]
CYCLE_CONS(-2) 0.153967 -0.034123 0.290832
(0.16594) (0.06732) (0.55262)
[ 0.92787] [-0.50690] [ 0.52627]
UNIVERSITE PEDAGOGIQUE NATIONALE : Analyse
économétrique de l'efficacité des politiques
budgétaires. Cas du Brésil, du Congo et de la RD Congo
(1970-2010) Par N'SUNDI ZALA Hugo
Page 92 sur 123
|
C 1.25E+09
(2.5E+09)
[ 0.50659]
|
-7.59E+08
(1.0E+09)
[-0.76027]
|
3.91E+09
(8.2E+09)
[ 0.47734]
|
|
R-squared 0.564661
|
0.226607
|
0.654461
|
|
Adj. R-squared 0.480402
|
0.076918
|
0.587582
|
|
Sum sq. resids 6.96E+21
|
1.15E+21
|
7.72E+22
|
|
S.E. equation 1.50E+10
|
6.08E+09
|
4.99E+10
|
|
F-statistic 6.701482
|
1.513855
|
9.785811
|
|
Log likelihood -940.3974
|
-906.1140
|
-986.1144
|
|
Akaike AIC 49.86302
|
48.05863
|
52.26918
|
|
Schwarz SC 50.16468
|
48.36029
|
52.57084
|
|
Mean dependent 56060238
|
-6.58E+08
|
2.13E+08
|
|
S.D. dependent 2.08E+10
|
6.33E+09
|
7.77E+10
|
|
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
|
9.40E+59
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance
|
5.11E+59
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-2773.934
|
|
|
Akaike information criterion
|
147.1018
|
|
|
Schwarz criterion
|
148.0068
|
|
|
Annexe1-Tableau 9
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Vector Autoregression Estimates
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Date: 07/14/12 Time: 19:26
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Sample (adjusted): 1973 2010
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Included observations: 38 after adjustments
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Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
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CYCLE_GOUV
|
CYCLE_BAL
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CYCLE_INVEST
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CYCLE_GOUV(-1) 0.613932 0.077316 0.319612
(0.31681) (0.11889) (0.51102)
[ 1.93785] [ 0.65030] [ 0.62543]
CYCLE_GOUV(-2) -0.522781 0.085757 -0.426524
(0.29623) (0.11117) (0.47783)
[-1.76476] [ 0.77141] [-0.89262]
CYCLE_BAL(-1) 0.060907 0.365101 -0.751333
(0.75666) (0.28396) (1.22050)
[ 0.08050] [ 1.28577] [-0.61559]
CYCLE_BAL(-2) -0.248126 -0.189374 -0.291726
(0.71668) (0.26895) (1.15602)
[-0.34622] [-0.70412] [-0.25235]
CYCLE_INVEST(-1) 0.030982 -0.013479 -0.052610
UNIVERSITE PEDAGOGIQUE NATIONALE : Analyse
économétrique de l'efficacité des politiques
budgétaires. Cas du Brésil, du Congo et de la RD Congo
(1970-2010) Par N'SUNDI ZALA Hugo
Page 93 sur 123
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(0.21036)
[ 0.14728]
|
(0.07894)
[-0.17074]
|
(0.33932)
[-0.15504]
|
|
CYCLE_INVEST(-2)
|
0.368291
|
-0.132610
|
0.466724
|
|
(0.23384)
|
(0.08776)
|
(0.37719)
|
|
[ 1.57495]
|
[-1.51112]
|
[ 1.23736]
|
|
C
|
5.87E+08
|
-6.05E+08
|
2.47E+08
|
|
(2.8E+09)
|
(1.0E+09)
|
(4.5E+09)
|
|
[ 0.21189]
|
[-0.58177]
|
[ 0.05530]
|
|
R-squared
|
0.445959
|
0.157717
|
0.226939
|
|
Adj. R-squared
|
0.338725
|
-0.005306
|
0.077315
|
|
Sum sq. resids
|
8.86E+21
|
1.25E+21
|
2.30E+22
|
|
S.E. equation
|
1.69E+10
|
6.34E+09
|
2.73E+10
|
|
F-statistic
|
4.158749
|
0.967455
|
1.516726
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-944.9785
|
-907.7352
|
-963.1468
|
|
Akaike AIC
|
50.10413
|
48.14396
|
51.06036
|
|
Schwarz SC
|
50.40579
|
48.44562
|
51.36202
|
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Mean dependent
|
56060238
|
-6.58E+08
|
1.72E+08
|
|
S.D. dependent
|
2.08E+10
|
6.33E+09
|
2.84E+10
|
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Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
|
|
1.05E+60
|
|
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Determinant resid covariance
|
|
5.68E+59
|
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Log likelihood
|
|
-2775.955
|
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Akaike information criterion
|
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147.2081
|
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Schwarz criterion
|
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148.1131
|
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