Dedication
To
The Living God Almighty
who by his grace has seen and guided me in my entire life and
through my academic course of study to this level, the glory be to him.
To
My father Kissi Kodjo, my uncle Houngbedji Clement and my aunt
Houngbedji Clotilde, brothers and sisters
Thank you for inspiring me always to look higher
May the Lord reward you
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to start by thanking to WASCAL ( West African
Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) for offering me
a scholarship, which made it possible for me to participate in the Master
Programme in Climate Change and Human Security (MRP CCHS) at University of
Lomé.
My special thanks go to my committee chair, Dr. Georges Abbevi
ABBEY, and my committee members, Prof Amadou Thierno GAYE, and Dr. Komi AGBOKA,
for his patience, unceasing and tireless efforts, his guidance and mentorship,
and for his encouragement, constructive comments, remarks, suggestions and
support during the writing process of this thesis.
I would like to thank our former Director Professor Adote Blim
Blivi for his constructive comments and advices to give us the will and
strength to be best.
I would also like to express my gratitude to my lecturers and
colleagues who helped me and kept me during the two years of this Master.
I would like to sincerely thank our current Director Professor
Kokou Kouami and our coordinator Dr Aklesso Egbendewe-Mondzodzo for their
encouragement and support.
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Togo Red Cross
Society, Mr André Akpadja , to the team of research assistants for their
effort during the process of collecting data for this study and to all the
communities and households where the questionnaires were administered without
whom this research would not have been possible.
I am grateful to all those who have helped directly or
indirectly in the production of this thesis . I render my special thanks to my
entire family especially, to my young sister, Ms Kissi Esther, to all my
friends, especially, Mr Batadjaga Magloire, Mr Adjaho Iréné, Mr
Kpotor Edguard, Mr Wilson-Bahun Noah, Mr Bruce Michel, Mr Etoh Kudzo Sena who
listened to my complains, gave me advice and the will to go on, and made me
laugh when I needed to. To you, all I owe my gratitude.
May the Almighty Bless You.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT
III
RESUME
IV
DEDICATION
V
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
VI
TABLE OF CONTENTS
VII
LIST OF FIGURES
X
LIST OF TABLES
XI
LIST OF MAPS
XII
LIST OF PHOTO
XII
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION
1
1.1. PROBLEM STATEMENT
1
1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
4
1.3. RESEARCH QUESTIONS
4
1.4. RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
5
1.5. THESIS STRUCTURE
5
CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW
6
2.1. HAZARDS, DISASTERS, AND VULNERABILITY
6
2.2. FLOOD VULNERABILITY FACTORS
8
2.3. METHODOLOGY FOR MEASUREMENT OF VULNERABILITY
TO NATURAL HAZARDS
10
2.3.1. Theoretical and Conceptual Frameworks of
Vulnerability
10
2.3.2 Indicators for Measuring
Vulnerability
11
2.4. THE INDEX APPROACH TO STUDY VULNERABILITY
15
2.4.1.Existing Flood Vulnerability Index
16
CHAPTER III: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
18
3.1 THE AREA OF STUDY
18
3.1.1 Localisation
18
3.1.2. Landscape, soil and vegetation
18
3.1.3. Climate and Hydrology
21
3.1.4. Population and Economic Activities
21
3.2. METHODS
21
3.2.1. Study Population and sampling
22
3.2.2. Selected Vulnerability Conceptual
Frameworks
22
3.2.3. Flood Vulnerability Indicator
Development
23
3.3. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS
25
3.3.1. Primary Data Collection
25
3.3.2. Secondary Data
25
3.3.3. Data Analysis
26
3.3.3.1. Trend Analysis of Rainfall And River
Discharge to Assess Climate Change.
26
3.3.3.2. Analysis of the determinants of
communities' vulnerability to flood
27
3.3.3.3 Analysis of human-environmental
condition
29
3.3.3.4 Computation of Flood Vulnerability Index
(FVI)
29
CHAPTER IV: PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION OF
RESULTS
33
4.1. EMPIRICAL FINDING ON TREND AND VARIABILITY
ANALYSIS
33
4.1.1. Precipitation Time Series Analysis
33
4.1.2. Discharge Time Series Analysis
35
4.2. DETERMINANTS OF COMMUNITIES' VULNERABILITY TO
FLOODS
38
4.2.1. Flood Frequency and Magnitude
Analysis
38
4.2.4. Assessment of communities'
vulnerability : Human-environmental conditions
42
4.2.4.1. Socio-Demographic Characteristics of
Households
42
4.2.4.2 Location of settlement and type of
construction
43
4.2.4.3. Livelihood patterns of respondents
44
4.2.4.4. Awareness and impacts of flood
44
4.2.4.5 Environmental conditions
45
4.2.4.6. Household coping mechanisms
46
4.2.4.7. Anticipative measures of flood
occurrence
46
4.2.4.8. Training on flood hazard management
47
4.2.4.9. Household recovery time and positive
effects of flood on household
47
4.2.5 Household adaptation options
48
4.2.5.1 Household's perception of Government and
NGOs role in flood management
48
4.2.5.2. Household `s perception of communities
role in flood management
48
4.3 COMPUTATION OF FLOOD VULNERABILITY INDEX
49
4.3.1 Identifying key indicators of developed
FVI
49
4.3.2. Normalised Scores and Weight Values of
Indicators
49
4.3.4. Composite vulnerability index of
vulnerability factors
50
4.3.4.1. Exposure factor
50
4.3.4.2 Susceptibility Factor
51
4.3.4.3 Resilience Factor
53
CHAPTER V: CONCLUSION AND POLICY
RECOMMENDATION
56
REFERENCES
58
ANNEXE 1 : Statistical summary of annual
and monthly precipitation for Tabligbo
- 1 -
ANNEXE 2: Mann-Kendall test results of
annual, monthly and seasonal precipitation
- 2 -
ANNEXE 3 : Statistical summary of annual
and monthly flow for Athieme
- 3 -
ANNEXE 4: Mann-Kendall results of annual ,
monthly and seasonal flow for the study area
- 5 -
ANNEXE 5: Calculation for return period of
2010 flood, Mono river
- 6 -
ANNEXE 6:Normalised scores of flood
vulnerability indicators of each village
- 7 -
ANNEXE 7: Calculated weights of flood
vulnerability indicators
8
ANNEXE 8: Questionnaire for household
interview
9
ANNEXE 9: Key informants interview
guide.
15
VITA .
16
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