Annexe3-Tableau 8
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 07/15/12 Time: 01:39
Sample (adjusted): 1972 2009
Included observations: 38 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
CYCLE_GOUV CYCLE_CONS CYCLE_BAL
CYCLE_GOUV(-1) 0.665520 2.164949 -0.049143
(0.20104) (0.87511) (0.24299)
[ 3.31034] [ 2.47391] [-0.20224]
CYCLE_GOUV(-2) -0.704047 -1.862969 -0.126536
(0.21294) (0.92692) (0.25738)
[-3.30625] [-2.00986] [-0.49163]
CYCLE_CONS(-1) -0.008980 0.142619 0.020865
(0.05245) (0.22830) (0.06339)
[-0.17122] [ 0.62470] [ 0.32915]
CYCLE_CONS(-2) 0.120782 0.357378 0.032307
(0.04851) (0.21114) (0.05863)
[ 2.49003] [ 1.69261] [ 0.55105]
UNIVERSITE PEDAGOGIQUE NATIONALE : Analyse
économétrique de l'efficacité des politiques
budgétaires. Cas du Brésil, du Congo et de la RD Congo
(1970-2010) Par N'SUNDI ZALA Hugo
Page 115 sur 123
|
CYCLE_BAL(-1)
|
-0.161206
(0.14406)
[-1.11901]
|
0.042547
(0.62708)
[ 0.06785]
|
0.104080
(0.17412)
[ 0.59774]
|
|
CYCLE_BAL(-2)
|
-0.076419
|
-0.385601
|
-0.270695
|
|
(0.15299)
|
(0.66592)
|
(0.18491)
|
|
[-0.49952]
|
[-0.57905]
|
[-1.46394]
|
|
C
|
-4443034.
|
1013675.
|
-2210808.
|
|
(3.9E+07)
|
(1.7E+08)
|
(4.7E+07)
|
|
[-0.11434]
|
[ 0.00599]
|
[-0.04707]
|
|
R-squared
|
0.454281
|
0.378768
|
0.083852
|
|
Adj. R-squared
|
0.348658
|
0.258530
|
-0.093467
|
|
Sum sq. resids
|
1.77E+18
|
3.35E+19
|
2.58E+18
|
|
S.E. equation
|
2.39E+08
|
1.04E+09
|
2.88E+08
|
|
F-statistic
|
4.300972
|
3.150144
|
0.472887
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-783.0962
|
-838.9879
|
-790.2980
|
|
Akaike AIC
|
41.58401
|
44.52568
|
41.96305
|
|
Schwarz SC
|
41.88567
|
44.82734
|
42.26471
|
|
Mean dependent
|
2760128.
|
24825965
|
-4089443.
|
|
S.D. dependent
|
2.96E+08
|
1.21E+09
|
2.76E+08
|
|
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
|
|
3.29E+51
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance
|
|
1.79E+51
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
|
-2403.997
|
|
|
Akaike information criterion
|
|
127.6314
|
|
|
Schwarz criterion
|
|
128.5364
|
|
Annexe3-Tableau 9
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 07/15/12 Time: 01:40
Sample (adjusted): 1972 2009
Included observations: 38 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
CYCLE_GOUV CYCLE_INVEST CYCLE_BAL
CYCLE_GOUV(-1) 0.584176 -0.195610 0.010036
(0.17555) (0.25316) (0.17954)
[ 3.32771] [-0.77269] [ 0.05590]
CYCLE_GOUV(-2) -0.348888 -0.059906 0.045478
(0.17418) (0.25118) (0.17813)
[-2.00307] [-0.23850] [ 0.25530]
CYCLE_INVEST(-1) -0.021530 0.188806 0.303424
(0.13389) (0.19308) (0.13693)
[-0.16080] [ 0.97785] [ 2.21584]
UNIVERSITE PEDAGOGIQUE NATIONALE : Analyse
économétrique de l'efficacité des politiques
budgétaires. Cas du Brésil, du Congo et de la RD Congo
(1970-2010) Par N'SUNDI ZALA Hugo
Page 116 sur 123
|
CYCLE_INVEST(-2) 0.160033
(0.14059)
[ 1.13834]
|
0.092265
(0.20273)
[ 0.45510]
|
-0.288224
(0.14378)
[-2.00463]
|
|
CYCLE_BAL(-1) -0.213540
|
-0.162731
|
0.314595
|
|
(0.17184)
|
(0.24781)
|
(0.17574)
|
|
[-1.24267]
|
[-0.65669]
|
[ 1.79008]
|
|
CYCLE_BAL(-2) 0.000834
|
-0.231984
|
-0.318770
|
|
(0.16778)
|
(0.24195)
|
(0.17159)
|
|
[ 0.00497]
|
[-0.95881]
|
[-1.85774]
|
|
C 1072117.
|
18213737
|
-5095721.
|
|
(4.2E+07)
|
(6.0E+07)
|
(4.3E+07)
|
|
[ 0.02560]
|
[ 0.30158]
|
[-0.11897]
|
|
R-squared 0.369239
|
0.126979
|
0.241842
|
|
Adj. R-squared 0.247156
|
-0.041993
|
0.095102
|
|
Sum sq. resids 2.04E+18
|
4.25E+18
|
2.14E+18
|
|
S.E. equation 2.57E+08
|
3.70E+08
|
2.62E+08
|
|
F-statistic 3.024495
|
0.751478
|
1.648099
|
|
Log likelihood -785.8479
|
-799.7592
|
-786.7015
|
|
Akaike AIC 41.72884
|
42.46101
|
41.77376
|
|
Schwarz SC 42.03050
|
42.76267
|
42.07543
|
|
Mean dependent 2760128.
|
12092391
|
-4089443.
|
|
S.D. dependent 2.96E+08
|
3.63E+08
|
2.76E+08
|
|
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
|
5.19E+50
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance
|
2.82E+50
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-2368.880
|
|
|
Akaike information criterion
|
125.7831
|
|
|
Schwarz criterion
|
126.6881
|
|
| 
