Annexe3-Tableau 5
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 07/15/12 Time: 01:32
Sample (adjusted): 1972 2009
Included observations: 38 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
CYCLE_GOUV CYCLE_CONS CYCLE_INVEST
CYCLE_GOUV(-1) 0.737373 2.238958 -0.273908
(0.19761) (0.80850) (0.30945)
[ 3.73145] [ 2.76929] [-0.88514]
CYCLE_GOUV(-2) -0.685134 -1.524494 0.022570
(0.21738) (0.88937) (0.34041)
[-3.15183] [-1.71414] [ 0.06630]
CYCLE_CONS(-1) -0.043546 -0.010679 0.067987
(0.05712) (0.23372) (0.08946)
[-0.76229] [-0.04569] [ 0.76000]
CYCLE_CONS(-2) 0.128778 0.394014 -0.067749
(0.04926) (0.20153) (0.07714)
[ 2.61434] [ 1.95507] [-0.87829]
CYCLE_INVEST(-1) 0.004516 0.552120 0.256819
(0.11808) (0.48310) (0.18491)
[ 0.03825] [ 1.14286] [ 1.38890]
CYCLE_INVEST(-2) 0.168650 0.843269 0.004479
(0.13116) (0.53664) (0.20540)
[ 1.28581] [ 1.57140] [ 0.02181]
C 2215897. 35336053 12420844
(3.9E+07) (1.6E+08) (6.1E+07)
[ 0.05677] [ 0.22127] [ 0.20321]
UNIVERSITE PEDAGOGIQUE NATIONALE : Analyse
économétrique de l'efficacité des politiques
budgétaires. Cas du Brésil, du Congo et de la RD Congo
(1970-2010) Par N'SUNDI ZALA Hugo
Page 112 sur 123
R-squared 0.457043 0.453942 0.113829
Adj. R-squared 0.351954 0.348254 -0.057688
Sum sq. resids 1.76E+18 2.94E+19 4.31E+18
S.E. equation 2.38E+08 9.74E+08 3.73E+08
F-statistic 4.349124 4.295092 0.663659
Log likelihood -782.9998 -836.5372 -800.0432
Akaike AIC 41.57894 44.39670 42.47596
Schwarz SC 41.88060 44.69836 42.77762
Mean dependent 2760128. 24825965 12092391
S.D. dependent 2.96E+08 1.21E+09 3.63E+08
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 5.03E+51
Determinant resid covariance 2.73E+51
Log likelihood -2412.038
Akaike information criterion 128.0546
Schwarz criterion 128.9596
Annexe3-Tableau 6
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 07/15/12 Time: 01:34
Sample (adjusted): 1973 2009
Included observations: 37 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
CYCLE_GOUV CYCLE_PIB CYCLE_CONS
CYCLE_GOUV(-1) 0.884130 1.939326 2.192781
(0.23046) (1.16188) (1.02049)
[ 3.83644] [ 1.66912] [ 2.14875]
CYCLE_GOUV(-2) -0.943999 -2.578227 -2.087649
(0.24085) (1.21427) (1.06650)
[-3.91951] [-2.12328] [-1.95747]
CYCLE_PIB(-1) -0.101291 -0.069113 0.090568
(0.08915) (0.44945) (0.39475)
[-1.13624] [-0.15377] [ 0.22943]
CYCLE_PIB(-2) 0.063346 0.100959 0.201302
(0.03166) (0.15961) (0.14018)
[ 2.00096] [ 0.63254] [ 1.43597]
CYCLE_CONS(-1) 0.065954 -0.747628 0.043799
(0.08897) (0.44854) (0.39395)
[ 0.74135] [-1.66682] [ 0.11118]
CYCLE_CONS(-2) 0.013032 0.296209 0.393407
(0.09457) (0.47680) (0.41877)
[ 0.13780] [ 0.62125] [ 0.93942]
UNIVERSITE PEDAGOGIQUE NATIONALE : Analyse
économétrique de l'efficacité des politiques
budgétaires. Cas du Brésil, du Congo et de la RD Congo
(1970-2010) Par N'SUNDI ZALA Hugo
Page 113 sur 123
|
C -3587656.
(3.8E+07)
[-0.09470]
|
52576159
(1.9E+08)
[ 0.27528]
|
10459229
(1.7E+08)
[ 0.06235]
|
|
R-squared 0.507136
|
0.436529
|
0.412764
|
|
Adj. R-squared 0.408563
|
0.323835
|
0.295317
|
|
Sum sq. resids 1.58E+18
|
4.02E+19
|
3.10E+19
|
|
S.E. equation 2.29E+08
|
1.16E+09
|
1.02E+09
|
|
F-statistic 5.144781
|
3.873576
|
3.514468
|
|
Log likelihood -760.9228
|
-820.7791
|
-815.9780
|
|
Akaike AIC 41.50934
|
44.74481
|
44.48530
|
|
Schwarz SC 41.81411
|
45.04958
|
44.79007
|
|
Mean dependent 7407791.
|
33282245
|
52858963
|
|
S.D. dependent 2.98E+08
|
1.41E+09
|
1.21E+09
|
|
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
|
1.00E+52
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance
|
5.33E+51
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-2360.951
|
|
|
Akaike information criterion
|
128.7541
|
|
|
Schwarz criterion
|
129.6684
|
|
Annexe3-Tableau 7
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 07/15/12 Time: 01:36
Sample (adjusted): 1972 2009
Included observations: 38 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
CYCLE_GOUV CYCLE_BAL
CYCLE_GOUV(-1) 0.621522 -0.007601
(0.16952) (0.18821)
[ 3.66641] [-0.04038]
CYCLE_GOUV(-2) -0.363016 -0.005473
(0.16819) (0.18674)
[-2.15836] [-0.02931]
CYCLE_BAL(-1) -0.147732 0.111847
(0.15290) (0.16976)
[-0.96621] [ 0.65886]
CYCLE_BAL(-2) -0.041811 -0.256898
(0.16188) (0.17973)
[-0.25828] [-1.42933]
UNIVERSITE PEDAGOGIQUE NATIONALE : Analyse
économétrique de l'efficacité des politiques
budgétaires. Cas du Brésil, du Congo et de la RD Congo
(1970-2010) Par N'SUNDI ZALA Hugo
Page 114 sur 123
C -3015578. -859674.2
(4.1E+07) (4.6E+07)
[-0.07305] [-0.01876]
R-squared 0.342458 0.068552
Adj. R-squared 0.262756 -0.044351
Sum sq. resids 2.13E+18 2.62E+18
S.E. equation 2.54E+08 2.82E+08
F-statistic 4.296723 0.607176
Log likelihood -786.6379 -790.6127
Akaike AIC 41.66515 41.87435
Schwarz SC 41.88063 42.08982
Mean dependent 2760128. -4089443.
S.D. dependent 2.96E+08 2.76E+08
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 5.02E+33
Determinant resid covariance 3.79E+33
Log likelihood -1576.869
Akaike information criterion 83.51944
Schwarz criterion 83.95038
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