ANNEXES
Annexe 1
Tableau 2: Récapitulatif des
variables
|
Variables
|
Libellés
|
Source
|
Relations attendues*
|
|
txfisc
|
Part des taxes dans le PIB
|
World Bank, 2008 et INS
|
/
|
|
txagri
|
Part de la valeur ajoutée agricole dans le PIB
|
World Bank, 2008
|
+/-
|
|
txindus
|
Part de la valeur ajoutée industrielle dans le PIB
|
World Bank, 2008
|
+
|
|
txcom
|
Part du commerce extérieur dans le PIB
|
World Bank, 2008
|
+
|
|
txfin
|
Part du financement public provenant de l'extérieur
dans le PIB
|
World Bank, 2008
|
-
|
|
txm2
|
Part de la monnaie et quasi-monnaie dans le PIB
|
World Bank, 2008
|
+/-
|
|
txpib
|
Logarithme du PIB par tête
|
World Bank, 2008
|
+
|
Source : Construction de
l'auteur
Note : *La relation
ici mise en exergue n'est pas une relation de signe au sens mathématique
du terme, car le VAR/VECM n'a pas pour objectif fondamental d'étudier
les signes entre les variables d'un modèle, mais plutôt d'examiner
la dynamique de court, moyen et de long terme entre les différentes
variables. Notre variable d'intérêt étant le taux de
pression fiscale, les relations désignent donc ici l'importance de la
contribution de chaque variable dans la mobilisation fiscale.
Annexe2
OBJECTIFS DU MILLENAIRE POUR
LE DEVELOPPEMENT
Objectif 1 : Réduire
l'extrême pauvreté et la faim ;
Objectif 2 : Assurer
l'éducation primaire pour tous ;
Objectif 3 : Promouvoir
l'égalité des sexes et l'autonomisation des femmes ;
Objectif 4: Réduire la
mortalité infantile ;
Objectif 5 : Améliorer la
santé maternelle ;
Objectif 6 : Combattre le
VIH/SIDA, le paludisme et d'autres maladies ;
Objectif 7 : Assurer un
environnement durable ;
Objectif 8 : Mettre en place un
partenariat mondial pour le développement.
Annexe3
Statistiques et
économétrie
A3.1. Résultats des Tests de causalité
de Granger
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|
Null Hypothesis:
|
Obs
|
F-Statistic
|
Probability
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TXAGRI does not Granger Cause TXFISC
|
25
|
0.91680
|
0.41596
|
|
TXFISC does not Granger Cause TXAGRI
|
6.49525
|
0.00671
|
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Null Hypothesis:
|
Obs
|
F-Statistic
|
Probability
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TXINDUS does not Granger Cause TXFISC
|
25
|
2.50666
|
0.10680
|
|
TXFISC does not Granger Cause TXINDUS
|
4.95336
|
0.01789
|
|
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Null Hypothesis:
|
Obs
|
F-Statistic
|
Probability
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TXCOM does not Granger Cause TXFISC
|
25
|
0.43275
|
0.65466
|
|
TXFISC does not Granger Cause TXCOM
|
0.37607
|
0.69130
|
|
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|
Null Hypothesis:
|
Obs
|
F-Statistic
|
Probability
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
TXFIN does not Granger Cause TXFISC
|
25
|
0.24045
|
0.78851
|
|
TXFISC does not Granger Cause TXFIN
|
1.90231
|
0.17526
|
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|
Null Hypothesis:
|
Obs
|
F-Statistic
|
Probability
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TXM2 does not Granger Cause TXFISC
|
25
|
0.68787
|
0.51415
|
|
TXFISC does not Granger Cause TXM2
|
0.67931
|
0.51828
|
|
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|
Null Hypothesis:
|
Obs
|
F-Statistic
|
Probability
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
TXPIB does not Granger Cause TXFISC
|
24
|
0.27887
|
0.75968
|
|
TXFISC does not Granger Cause TXPIB
|
1.96503
|
0.16761
|
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|
A3.2. Résultats des Tests ADF
|
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t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-6.596382
|
0.0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.660720
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.955020
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.609070
|
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Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
D(TXAGRI(-1))
|
-1.273358
|
0.193039
|
-6.596382
|
0.0000
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.644382
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.062968
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.644382
|
S.D. dependent var
|
3.405278
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
2.030693
|
Akaike info criterion
|
4.293809
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
98.96913
|
Schwarz criterion
|
4.342564
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-52.67261
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.976588
|
|
|
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|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-4.737326
|
0.0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.660720
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.955020
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.609070
|
|
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|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(TXCOM(-1))
|
-0.963432
|
0.203370
|
-4.737326
|
0.0001
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.482362
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.352371
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.482362
|
S.D. dependent var
|
8.778282
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
6.315717
|
Akaike info criterion
|
6.563138
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
957.3187
|
Schwarz criterion
|
6.611893
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-81.03922
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.714968
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-3.367461
|
0.0017
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.660720
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.955020
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.609070
|
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Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
D(TXFIN(-1))
|
-0.702747
|
0.208687
|
-3.367461
|
0.0026
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.319548
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.757936
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.319548
|
S.D. dependent var
|
17.47636
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
14.41616
|
Akaike info criterion
|
8.213755
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
4987.816
|
Schwarz criterion
|
8.262510
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-101.6719
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.953469
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-4.446322
|
0.0001
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.660720
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.955020
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.609070
|
|
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Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
D(TXFISC(-1))
|
-0.899894
|
0.202391
|
-4.446322
|
0.0002
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.450550
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.097839
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.450550
|
S.D. dependent var
|
2.202999
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
1.632971
|
Akaike info criterion
|
3.857857
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
63.99823
|
Schwarz criterion
|
3.906612
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-47.22321
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.652030
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-4.988205
|
0.0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.660720
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.955020
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.609070
|
|
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|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
D(TXINDUS(-1))
|
-0.968025
|
0.194063
|
-4.988205
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.508605
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.099801
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.508605
|
S.D. dependent var
|
3.486452
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
2.443989
|
Akaike info criterion
|
4.664318
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
143.3540
|
Schwarz criterion
|
4.713073
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-57.30398
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.071044
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-3.258952
|
0.0022
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.660720
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.955020
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.609070
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(TXM2(-1))
|
-0.612147
|
0.187836
|
-3.258952
|
0.0033
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.306711
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.013352
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.306711
|
S.D. dependent var
|
1.421997
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
1.184011
|
Akaike info criterion
|
3.214871
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
33.64517
|
Schwarz criterion
|
3.263626
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-39.18588
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.919912
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prob .*
|
t-Statistic
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-5.380627
|
0.0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.664853
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.955681
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.608793
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(TXPIB(-1))
|
-0.981277
|
0.182372
|
-5.380627
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.553438
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.004269
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.553438
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.046835
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.031298
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-4.049757
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.022530
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-4.000671
|
|
Log likelihood
|
49.59708
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.015762
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Graphique 5 : Le paradoxe de
l'évolution du taux de pression fiscale du Cameroun à l'horizon
2020
Source : Construction de l'auteur
à partir des données du MINEPAT (DSCE, 2009)
Tableau 3 : Estimation du VAR
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(TXFISC)
|
D(TXFIN)
|
D(TXCOM)
|
D(TXAGRI)
|
D(TXINDUS)
|
D(TXM2)
|
D(TXPIB)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(TXFISC(-1))
|
-0.456024
|
0.226309
|
-1.426759
|
-0.515061
|
0.224240
|
0.130651
|
-0.008023
|
|
(0.20890)
|
(3.05640)
|
(0.88119)
|
(0.51070)
|
(0.67344)
|
(0.30848)
|
(0.00720)
|
|
[-2.18293]
|
[ 0.07404]
|
[-1.61912]
|
[-1.00854]
|
[ 0.33298]
|
[ 0.42353]
|
[-1.11382]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(TXFIN(-1))
|
-0.028176
|
0.540803
|
-0.102095
|
-0.001272
|
-0.017518
|
-0.015987
|
0.000435
|
|
(0.01465)
|
(0.21429)
|
(0.06178)
|
(0.03581)
|
(0.04722)
|
(0.02163)
|
(0.00051)
|
|
[-1.92367]
|
[ 2.52365]
|
[-1.65248]
|
[-0.03552]
|
[-0.37100]
|
[-0.73916]
|
[ 0.86163]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(TXCOM(-1))
|
0.076371
|
-0.871447
|
0.058137
|
-0.094860
|
0.114518
|
-0.062884
|
0.003264
|
|
(0.05589)
|
(0.81766)
|
(0.23574)
|
(0.13663)
|
(0.18016)
|
(0.08253)
|
(0.00193)
|
|
[ 1.36653]
|
[-1.06578]
|
[ 0.24661]
|
[-0.69431]
|
[ 0.63564]
|
[-0.76198]
|
[ 1.69395]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(TXAGRI(-1))
|
0.290945
|
1.093234
|
0.750592
|
-0.250933
|
-0.116130
|
0.053725
|
-0.004702
|
|
(0.15112)
|
(2.21091)
|
(0.63743)
|
(0.36943)
|
(0.48715)
|
(0.22315)
|
(0.00521)
|
|
[ 1.92532]
|
[ 0.49447]
|
[ 1.17753]
|
[-0.67925]
|
[-0.23839]
|
[ 0.24076]
|
[-0.90241]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(TXINDUS(-1))
|
0.210166
|
3.930728
|
1.377860
|
0.025937
|
-0.299915
|
0.284170
|
-0.001739
|
|
(0.12043)
|
(1.76197)
|
(0.50799)
|
(0.29441)
|
(0.38823)
|
(0.17784)
|
(0.00415)
|
|
[ 1.74512]
|
[ 2.23087]
|
[ 2.71236]
|
[ 0.08810]
|
[-0.77253]
|
[ 1.59793]
|
[-0.41888]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(TXM2(-1))
|
0.146213
|
-4.100995
|
0.178539
|
-0.117783
|
-0.316412
|
0.566241
|
-0.001881
|
|
(0.13768)
|
(2.01428)
|
(0.58074)
|
(0.33657)
|
(0.44382)
|
(0.20330)
|
(0.00475)
|
|
[ 1.06201]
|
[-2.03597]
|
[ 0.30744]
|
[-0.34995]
|
[-0.71293]
|
[ 2.78523]
|
[-0.39621]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(TXPIB(-1))
|
8.261149
|
-14.16274
|
19.92438
|
15.35824
|
-13.08870
|
-7.438686
|
-0.020281
|
|
(4.81529)
|
(70.4506)
|
(20.3116)
|
(11.7717)
|
(15.5229)
|
(7.11061)
|
(0.16603)
|
|
[ 1.71561]
|
[-0.20103]
|
[ 0.98094]
|
[ 1.30467]
|
[-0.84319]
|
[-1.04614]
|
[-0.12215]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D1
|
2.084646
|
-8.126766
|
5.321979
|
-0.369975
|
1.117409
|
-0.077641
|
0.020123
|
|
(0.53606)
|
(7.84291)
|
(2.26119)
|
(1.31049)
|
(1.72809)
|
(0.79159)
|
(0.01848)
|
|
[ 3.88881]
|
[-1.03619]
|
[ 2.35362]
|
[-0.28232]
|
[ 0.64662]
|
[-0.09808]
|
[ 1.08869]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D2
|
-3.618139
|
-1.488235
|
-13.60360
|
-0.669233
|
-2.096360
|
-0.389497
|
-0.047844
|
|
(0.70150)
|
(10.2634)
|
(2.95903)
|
(1.71492)
|
(2.26140)
|
(1.03589)
|
(0.02419)
|
|
[-5.15773]
|
[-0.14500]
|
[-4.59733]
|
[-0.39024]
|
[-0.92702]
|
[-0.37600]
|
[-1.97806]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.829212
|
0.636259
|
0.800242
|
0.471798
|
0.313709
|
0.486333
|
0.516950
|
|
Adj. R-squared
|
0.738125
|
0.442264
|
0.693704
|
0.190091
|
-0.052314
|
0.212378
|
0.259324
|
|
Sum sq. resids
|
9.145632
|
1957.664
|
162.7261
|
54.65751
|
95.04171
|
19.94265
|
0.010873
|
|
S.E. equation
|
0.780839
|
11.42414
|
3.293692
|
1.908883
|
2.517164
|
1.153044
|
0.026923
|
|
F-statistic
|
9.103506
|
3.279772
|
7.511338
|
1.674780
|
0.857075
|
1.775227
|
2.006590
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-22.47720
|
-86.87197
|
-57.02270
|
-43.93092
|
-50.56967
|
-31.83221
|
58.34008
|
|
Akaike AIC
|
2.623100
|
7.989331
|
5.501891
|
4.410910
|
4.964139
|
3.402684
|
-4.111673
|
|
Schwarz SC
|
3.064870
|
8.431101
|
5.943662
|
4.852680
|
5.405909
|
3.844454
|
-3.669903
|
|
Mean dependent
|
-0.109146
|
-0.965024
|
-0.393096
|
-0.366068
|
0.044993
|
-0.165281
|
-0.001148
|
Graphique 5 : Autocorrélogrammes
résiduels du VAR
| 
