2 - Cas de la
République Dominicaine
Table 28 : Résultats de la
régression 6 (EQ.6)
|
Dependent Variable: D(LY)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 09/15/05 Time: 20:38
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1971 2000
|
|
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
-0.891005
|
0.550326
|
-1.619047
|
0.1185
|
|
TCPUB
|
0.329969
|
0.083168
|
3.967480
|
0.0006
|
|
D(LTINV)
|
-0.539977
|
0.114288
|
-4.724684
|
0.0001
|
|
TE
|
0.217931
|
0.121573
|
1.792591
|
0.0857
|
|
FIXE
|
-0.143640
|
0.066670
|
-2.154503
|
0.0415
|
|
DUM
|
0.004192
|
0.042119
|
0.099534
|
0.9215
|
|
R-squared
|
0.684648
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.179430
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.618950
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.095180
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.058754
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-2.654065
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.082848
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-2.373825
|
|
Log likelihood
|
45.81097
|
F-statistic
|
10.42109
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.036119
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000021
|
Sources : Simulation
de l'auteur à partir des données des statistiques
financières internationales, et du manuel statistique des
Nations-Unies
Table 29 : Résultats de la régression 7 (EQ.7)
|
Dependent Variable: D(LY)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 09/15/05 Time: 20:47
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1971 2000
|
|
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
-1.034644
|
0.612055
|
-1.690444
|
0.1039
|
|
TCPUB
|
0.329969
|
0.083168
|
3.967480
|
0.0006
|
|
D(LTINV)
|
-0.539977
|
0.114288
|
-4.724684
|
0.0001
|
|
TE
|
0.217931
|
0.121573
|
1.792591
|
0.0857
|
|
FLEX
|
0.143640
|
0.066670
|
2.154503
|
0.0415
|
|
DUM
|
0.004192
|
0.042119
|
0.099534
|
0.9215
|
|
R-squared
|
0.684648
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.179430
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.618950
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.095180
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.058754
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-2.654065
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.082848
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-2.373825
|
|
Log likelihood
|
45.81097
|
F-statistic
|
10.42109
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.036119
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000021
|
Sources : Simulation de l'auteur à partir
des données des statistiques financières
internationales, et du manuel statistique des Nations-Unies
Table 30: Résultats de la
régression 8 (EQ .8)
|
Dependent Variable: D(LY)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 09/15/05 Time: 21:19
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1971 2000
|
|
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
-1.024655
|
0.540034
|
-1.897388
|
0.0704
|
|
TCPUB
|
0.241872
|
0.097756
|
2.474249
|
0.0212
|
|
D(LTINV)
|
-0.555481
|
0.111217
|
-4.994583
|
0.0000
|
|
TCOME
|
0.079400
|
0.049825
|
1.593577
|
0.1247
|
|
TE
|
0.246737
|
0.119230
|
2.069415
|
0.0499
|
|
FIXE
|
-0.161068
|
0.065548
|
-2.457262
|
0.0220
|
|
DUM
|
-0.002332
|
0.041034
|
-0.056820
|
0.9552
|
|
R-squared
|
0.716005
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.179430
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.641919
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.095180
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.056955
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-2.692130
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.074610
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-2.365184
|
|
Log likelihood
|
47.38195
|
F-statistic
|
9.664543
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.999053
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000024
|
Sources : Simulation de l'auteur à partir
des données des statistiques financières
internationales, et du manuel statistique des Nations-Unies
Table 31 : Résultats de
la régression 9 (EQ. 9)
|
Dependent Variable: D(LY)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 09/15/05 Time: 21:37
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1971 2000
|
|
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
-1.185723
|
0.600848
|
-1.973417
|
0.0606
|
|
TCPUB
|
0.241872
|
0.097756
|
2.474249
|
0.0212
|
|
D(LTINV)
|
-0.555481
|
0.111217
|
-4.994583
|
0.0000
|
|
TCOME
|
0.079400
|
0.049825
|
1.593577
|
0.1247
|
|
TE
|
0.246737
|
0.119230
|
2.069415
|
0.0499
|
|
FLEX
|
0.161068
|
0.065548
|
2.457262
|
0.0220
|
|
DUM
|
-0.002332
|
0.041034
|
-0.056820
|
0.9552
|
|
R-squared
|
0.716005
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.179430
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.641919
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.095180
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.056955
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-2.692130
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.074610
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-2.365184
|
|
Log likelihood
|
47.38195
|
F-statistic
|
9.664543
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.999053
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000024
|
Sources : Simulation de l'auteur à partir
des données des statistiques financières
internationales, et du manuel statistique des Nations-Unies
Table 32 : Résultats de
la régression 10.1 (EQ.10.1)
|
Dependent Variable: D(LY)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 09/22/05 Time: 23:27
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1973 2000
|
|
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
-0.831486
|
0.300311
|
-2.768755
|
0.0115
|
|
TCPUB
|
0.274441
|
0.085494
|
3.210079
|
0.0042
|
|
D(LTINV)
|
-0.586642
|
0.112109
|
-5.232775
|
0.0000
|
|
D(LTINV(-2))
|
0.127650
|
0.101604
|
1.256354
|
0.2228
|
|
TCOME
|
0.082313
|
0.045389
|
1.813512
|
0.0841
|
|
TE
|
0.202996
|
0.065193
|
3.113755
|
0.0053
|
|
FIXE
|
-0.139137
|
0.043105
|
-3.227870
|
0.0040
|
|
R-squared
|
0.785844
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.181870
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.724656
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.097824
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.051331
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-2.888715
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.055333
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-2.555664
|
|
Log likelihood
|
47.44201
|
F-statistic
|
12.84320
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.617217
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000004
|
Sources : Simulation
de l'auteur à partir des données des statistiques
financières internationales, et du manuel statistique des
Nations-Unies
Table 33 : Résultats de la régression 10.2
(EQ.10.2)
|
Dependent Variable: D(LY)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 09/22/05 Time: 23:30
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1973 2000
|
|
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
-0.970623
|
0.337286
|
-2.877746
|
0.0090
|
|
TCPUB
|
0.274441
|
0.085494
|
3.210079
|
0.0042
|
|
D(LTINV)
|
-0.586642
|
0.112109
|
-5.232775
|
0.0000
|
|
D(LTINV(-2))
|
0.127650
|
0.101604
|
1.256354
|
0.2228
|
|
TCOME
|
0.082313
|
0.045389
|
1.813512
|
0.0841
|
|
TE
|
0.202996
|
0.065193
|
3.113755
|
0.0053
|
|
FLEX
|
0.139137
|
0.043105
|
3.227870
|
0.0040
|
|
R-squared
|
0.785844
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.181870
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.724656
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.097824
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.051331
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-2.888715
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.055333
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-2.555664
|
|
Log likelihood
|
47.44201
|
F-statistic
|
12.84320
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.617217
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000004
|
Sources : Simulation de l'auteur à partir
des données des statistiques financières
internationales, et du manuel statistique des Nations-Unies
| 
