BIBLIOGRAPHIE
Ouvrage
1. BOURBONNAIS, R., Econométrie, 9e
édition, duo, 2015, paris.
2. BIKAI, J. et KENKOUO G. Analyse et évaluation de
canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire dans la CEMAC :
une approche SVAR, 2015.
3. CLERG D., l'inflation, paris, syros, 1994.
4. STOCK J.H. et M.W. WATSON, Forecasting Inflaction,
Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 44, 1999.
5. M. Freedman, le recours aux indicateurs et à
l'indice de condition monétaire at Canada, banque du Canada, 1996.s
6. DIARISSO et SAMBA, les conditions monétaires
dans l'UEMOA : confection d'un indice communautaire, BCAO, note
information et statistique N°501
7. AGENOR P. R. (2008), «
ciblage d?inflation et définition d?objectifs monétaires : quels
critères de choix pour les pays en développement ? »,
Quatrième colloque BCEAO - Universités - centres de recherche :
politique monétaire et stabilité des prix dans l?UEMOA :
contraintes et défis, volume II - intervention orale,
août.
8. ALLEGRET J. et GOUX J. (2003),
« Trois essais sur les anticipations d?inflation »,
in Documents de travail - Working Papers n°03-01, GATE, Mai.
Note de cours
9. BOLITO, R., cours de la macroéconomique,
FSEG, UNIKIS, L1 économie, 20162017,
10. LUBANZA, N. cours d'informatique, FSEG, UNIKIS, L1
économie, 20162017,
Mémoire et article
11. Caleb MUKADI « RDC : l'inflation n'est
que monétaire ? », article, 2010
12. LIOTO GANDI,l'analyse de quelques aspects de la
politique monétaire de la banque centrale du Congo et ses effets sur
l'économie nationale, FSEG, UPLG, 2010
13. Henry N. MUGANZA Les indicateurs avances de
l'inflation en RDC, article, 2014
14. NGANDU LISIMO, la politique de l'autorité face
à la dépréciation du CDF : enjeux et
conséquences, FSEG, UNIKIN, 2014
Webographie
Besoin de financement
http://www.fao.org/tiews/french/basedocs/DRCen,
STM. Consulté en Août 2018, 15h18,
Annexes
Analyses de la stationnarité des variables
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Null Hypothesis: D(LINF) has a unit root
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Exogenous: None
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Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=9)
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t-Statistic
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Prob.*
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Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
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-6.846802
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0.0000
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Test critical values:
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1% level
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-2.632688
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5% level
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-1.950687
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10% level
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-1.611059
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Null Hypothesis: D(LIMP) has a unit root
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Exogenous: None
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Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=9)
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t-Statistic
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Prob.*
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Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
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-4.893660
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0.0000
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Test critical values:
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1% level
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-2.632688
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5% level
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-1.950687
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10% level
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-1.611059
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Null Hypothesis: D(TCH) has a unit root
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Exogenous: None
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Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=9)
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t-Statistic
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Prob.*
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Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
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-3.116378
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0.0028
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Test critical values:
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1% level
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-2.632688
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5% level
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-1.950687
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10% level
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-1.611059
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Null Hypothesis: D(TC) has a unit root
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Exogenous: None
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Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=9)
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t-Statistic
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Prob.*
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Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
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-5.622891
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0.0000
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Test critical values:
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1% level
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-2.632688
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5% level
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-1.950687
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10% level
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-1.611059
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Null Hypothesis: D(LMM) has a unit root
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Exogenous: Constant
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Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=9)
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t-Statistic
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Prob.*
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Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
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-4.304575
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0.0017
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Test critical values:
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1% level
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-3.632900
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5% level
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-2.948404
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10% level
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-2.612874
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
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Dependent Variable: D(LMM,2)
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Method: Least Squares
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Date: 08/05/19 Time: 22:42
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Sample (adjusted): 1982 2016
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Included observations: 35 after adjustments
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Variable
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Coefficient
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Std. Error
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t-Statistic
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Prob.
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D(LMM(-1))
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-0.721380
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0.167584
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-4.304575
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0.0001
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C
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0.686993
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0.279786
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2.455425
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0.0195
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Null Hypothesis: DB has a unit root
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Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
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Lag Length: 9 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=9)
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t-Statistic
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Prob.*
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Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
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-7.202242
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0.0000
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Test critical values:
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1% level
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-4.339330
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5% level
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-3.587527
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10% level
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-3.229230
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
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Dependent Variable: D(DB)
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Method: Least Squares
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Date: 08/05/19 Time: 22:44
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Sample (adjusted): 1990 2016
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Included observations: 27 after adjustments
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Variable
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Coefficient
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Std. Error
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t-Statistic
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Prob.
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DB(-1)
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-1.973067
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0.273952
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-7.202242
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0.0000
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D(DB(-1))
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1.432773
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0.243098
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5.893806
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0.0000
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D(DB(-2))
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1.091097
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0.207194
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5.266068
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0.0001
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D(DB(-3))
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0.963881
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0.192016
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5.019807
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0.0002
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D(DB(-4))
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0.466411
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0.173752
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2.684351
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0.0170
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D(DB(-5))
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0.663322
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0.158320
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4.189760
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0.0008
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D(DB(-6))
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0.347596
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0.130985
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2.653713
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0.0181
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D(DB(-7))
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0.338270
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0.120890
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2.798154
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0.0135
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D(DB(-8))
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0.199186
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0.113300
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1.758039
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0.0991
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D(DB(-9))
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0.254166
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0.100655
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2.525112
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0.0233
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C
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-18.38841
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2.469483
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-7.446258
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0.0000
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@TREND("1980")
|
0.566357
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0.078976
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7.171217
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0.0000
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Estimation du VECM
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Vector Error Correction Estimates
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Date: 08/05/19 Time: 22:50
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Sample (adjusted): 1982 2016
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Included observations: 35 after adjustments
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Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
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Cointegrating Eq:
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CointEq1
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CointEq2
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LINF(-1)
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1.000000
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0.000000
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LIMP(-1)
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0.000000
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1.000000
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LMM(-1)
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0.318820
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1.284899
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(0.10672)
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(0.38209)
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[ 2.98731]
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[ 3.36278]
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TCH(-1)
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-0.003897
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-0.021216
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(0.00554)
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(0.01982)
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[-0.70389]
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[-1.07044]
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TC(-1)
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-0.283792
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-2.629368
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(0.36508)
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(1.30706)
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[-0.77734]
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[-2.01166]
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DB(-1)
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-2.185389
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-7.330622
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(0.33504)
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(1.19950)
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[-6.52282]
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[-6.11140]
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Error Correction:
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D(LINF)
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D(LIMP)
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D(LMM)
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D(TCH)
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D(TC)
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D(DB)
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CointEq1
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-0.435236
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-0.093057
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-0.153170
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-12.61859
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0.277037
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1.493157
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(0.19453)
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(0.05160)
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(0.14986)
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(10.5378)
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(0.55417)
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(0.65492)
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[-2.23732]
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[-1.80355]
|
[-1.02209]
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[-1.19746]
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[ 0.49991]
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[ 2.27991]
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CointEq2
|
0.119401
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0.022104
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0.072730
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3.705481
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-0.106624
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-0.368716
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(0.05181)
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(0.01374)
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(0.03991)
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(2.80629)
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(0.14758)
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(0.17441)
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[ 2.30477]
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[ 1.60865]
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[ 1.82240]
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[ 1.32042]
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[-0.72249]
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[-2.11408]
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D(LINF(-1))
|
-0.034012
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-0.007593
|
0.215557
|
3.528189
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-0.507492
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-0.537826
|
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(0.16978)
|
(0.04503)
|
(0.13079)
|
(9.19706)
|
(0.48366)
|
(0.57160)
|
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[-0.20032]
|
[-0.16861]
|
[ 1.64808]
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[ 0.38362]
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[-1.04927]
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[-0.94092]
|
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D(LIMP(-1))
|
-0.911977
|
-0.047692
|
-1.014450
|
-18.27883
|
-0.656052
|
0.313726
|
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(0.73558)
|
(0.19510)
|
(0.56665)
|
(39.8457)
|
(2.09544)
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(2.47640)
|
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[-1.23981]
|
[-0.24445]
|
[-1.79025]
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[-0.45874]
|
[-0.31309]
|
[ 0.12669]
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D(LMM(-1))
|
-0.205367
|
0.087210
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-0.584333
|
-7.364135
|
1.796277
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-0.236775
|
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(0.21516)
|
(0.05707)
|
(0.16575)
|
(11.6549)
|
(0.61292)
|
(0.72435)
|
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[-0.95449]
|
[ 1.52821]
|
[-3.52546]
|
[-0.63185]
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[ 2.93070]
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[-0.32688]
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D(TCH(-1))
|
-0.006934
|
0.000861
|
-0.004662
|
0.329762
|
0.021207
|
0.008050
|
|
(0.00366)
|
(0.00097)
|
(0.00282)
|
(0.19849)
|
(0.01044)
|
(0.01234)
|
|
[-1.89236]
|
[ 0.88602]
|
[-1.65158]
|
[ 1.66134]
|
[ 2.03158]
|
[ 0.65259]
|
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D(TC(-1))
|
0.026633
|
0.045647
|
-0.001082
|
2.112184
|
-0.179168
|
-0.159208
|
|
(0.08816)
|
(0.02338)
|
(0.06791)
|
(4.77558)
|
(0.25114)
|
(0.29680)
|
|
[ 0.30209]
|
[ 1.95214]
|
[-0.01593]
|
[ 0.44229]
|
[-0.71341]
|
[-0.53641]
|
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D(DB(-1))
|
-0.173019
|
-0.011904
|
0.051192
|
2.233979
|
0.024549
|
-0.066002
|
|
(0.05991)
|
(0.01589)
|
(0.04615)
|
(3.24547)
|
(0.17068)
|
(0.20171)
|
|
[-2.88781]
|
[-0.74910]
|
[ 1.10915]
|
[ 0.68834]
|
[ 0.14384]
|
[-0.32722]
|
|
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|
|
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|
R-squared
|
0.527301
|
0.356940
|
0.717608
|
0.220793
|
0.388093
|
0.309929
|
|
Adj. R-squared
|
0.404749
|
0.190221
|
0.644395
|
0.018776
|
0.229450
|
0.131022
|
|
Sum sq. resids
|
31.17491
|
2.193088
|
18.50040
|
91476.30
|
252.9856
|
353.3359
|
|
S.E. equation
|
1.074535
|
0.285001
|
0.827768
|
58.20662
|
3.061019
|
3.617529
|
|
F-statistic
|
4.302684
|
2.140968
|
9.801659
|
1.092942
|
2.446335
|
1.732346
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-47.63750
|
-1.187196
|
-38.50562
|
-187.3614
|
-84.27757
|
-90.12409
|
|
Akaike AIC
|
3.179285
|
0.524983
|
2.657464
|
11.16351
|
5.273004
|
5.607091
|
|
Schwarz SC
|
3.534794
|
0.880491
|
3.012972
|
11.51902
|
5.628512
|
5.962599
|
|
Mean dependent
|
-0.071632
|
0.069858
|
0.954778
|
28.86579
|
0.001414
|
0.174857
|
|
S.D. dependent
|
1.392742
|
0.316711
|
1.388112
|
58.76088
|
3.487110
|
3.880678
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
|
7427.043
|
|
|
|
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|
Determinant resid covariance
|
1565.274
|
|
|
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-426.7039
|
|
|
|
|
|
Akaike information criterion
|
27.81165
|
|
|
|
|
|
Schwarz criterion
|
30.47796
|
|
|
|
|
|
Number of coefficients
|
60
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
ESTIMATION DU VECM PARTIEL
|
Vector Error Correction Estimates
|
|
|
|
|
|
Date: 08/05/19 Time: 22:53
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1982 2016
|
|
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 35 after adjustments
|
|
|
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Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
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Cointegration Restrictions:
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A(5,1)=0, A(5,2)=0, A(4,1)=0,
A(4,2)=0
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Convergence achieved after 13 iterations.
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Not all cointegrating vectors are identified
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LR test for binding restrictions (rank = 2):
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Chi-square(4)
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7.408943
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Probability
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0.115792
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Cointegrating Eq:
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CointEq1
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CointEq2
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LINF(-1)
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0.135154
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1.080568
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LIMP(-1)
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-0.065817
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-0.284635
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LMM(-1)
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-0.036364
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-0.002718
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TCH(-1)
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0.000582
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0.001162
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TC(-1)
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0.159596
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0.477164
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DB(-1)
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0.185231
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-0.297400
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Error Correction:
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D(LINF)
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D(LIMP)
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D(LMM)
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D(TCH)
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D(TC)
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D(DB)
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CointEq1
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-0.307701
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0.044611
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-1.145553
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0.000000
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0.000000
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-1.257164
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(0.17083)
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(0.04689)
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(0.12549)
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(0.00000)
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(0.00000)
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(0.48083)
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[-1.80122]
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[ 0.95131]
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[-9.12897]
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[NA]
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[NA]
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[-2.61457]
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CointEq2
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-0.477418
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-0.099468
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-0.084522
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0.000000
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0.000000
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1.577814
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(0.16964)
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(0.04657)
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(0.12461)
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(0.00000)
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(0.00000)
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(0.47747)
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[-2.81436]
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[-2.13603]
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[-0.67830]
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[NA]
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[NA]
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[ 3.30452]
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D(LINF(-1))
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-0.008570
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-0.010442
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0.228379
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1.948111
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-0.463815
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-0.541302
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(0.16473)
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(0.04519)
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(0.12771)
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(9.35011)
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(0.48850)
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(0.57017)
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[-0.05203]
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[-0.23108]
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[ 1.78831]
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[ 0.20835]
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[-0.94946]
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[-0.94938]
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D(LIMP(-1))
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-0.880694
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-0.024345
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-0.903234
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-8.395955
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-1.009086
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0.061399
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(0.69271)
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(0.19003)
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(0.53703)
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(39.3189)
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(2.05424)
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(2.39765)
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[-1.27138]
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[-0.12811]
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[-1.68191]
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[-0.21353]
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[-0.49122]
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[ 0.02561]
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D(LMM(-1))
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-0.245998
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0.089470
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-0.615863
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-6.289098
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1.749578
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-0.210394
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(0.21168)
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(0.05807)
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(0.16411)
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(12.0153)
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(0.62774)
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(0.73269)
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[-1.16212]
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[ 1.54069]
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[-3.75281]
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[-0.52343]
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[ 2.78709]
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[-0.28716]
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D(TCH(-1))
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-0.007312
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0.000959
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-0.004735
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0.372707
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0.019770
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0.007569
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(0.00351)
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(0.00096)
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(0.00272)
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(0.19937)
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(0.01042)
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(0.01216)
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[-2.08167]
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[ 0.99567]
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[-1.73896]
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[ 1.86943]
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[ 1.89804]
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[ 0.62254]
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D(TC(-1))
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0.057861
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0.044894
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0.020566
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1.261324
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-0.157738
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-0.189693
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(0.08875)
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(0.02435)
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(0.06880)
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(5.03733)
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(0.26318)
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(0.30717)
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[ 0.65199]
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[ 1.84398]
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[ 0.29892]
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[ 0.25040]
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[-0.59936]
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[-0.61754]
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D(DB(-1))
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-0.173808
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-0.011641
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0.051149
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2.391184
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0.023341
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-0.067600
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(0.05808)
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(0.01593)
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(0.04502)
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(3.29650)
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(0.17223)
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(0.20102)
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[-2.99275]
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[-0.73068]
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[ 1.13602]
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[ 0.72537]
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[ 0.13552]
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[-0.33629]
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R-squared
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0.554601
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0.351772
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0.730513
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0.193841
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0.375165
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0.312692
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Adj. R-squared
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0.439128
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0.183713
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0.660646
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-0.015164
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0.213171
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0.134501
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Sum sq. resids
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29.37443
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2.210715
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17.65493
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94640.36
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258.3304
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351.9213
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S.E. equation
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1.043044
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0.286144
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0.808632
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59.20472
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3.093185
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3.610280
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F-statistic
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4.802835
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2.093143
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10.45576
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0.927449
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2.315917
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1.754813
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Log likelihood
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-46.59644
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-1.327288
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-37.68702
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-187.9564
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-84.64345
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-90.05389
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Akaike AIC
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3.119796
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0.532988
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2.610687
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11.19751
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5.293911
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5.603080
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Schwarz SC
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3.475304
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0.888496
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2.966195
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11.55302
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5.649419
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5.958588
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Mean dependent
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-0.071632
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0.069858
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0.954778
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28.86579
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0.001414
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0.174857
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S.D. dependent
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1.392742
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0.316711
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1.388112
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58.76088
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3.487110
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3.880678
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Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
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7605.360
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Determinant resid covariance
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1602.854
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Log likelihood
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-430.4083
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Akaike information criterion
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28.02333
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Schwarz criterion
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30.68964
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Number of coefficients
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60
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TEST DE BRUITS BLANCS
RESIDUS DE LA PREMIERE EQUATION
RESIDUS DE LA DEUXIEME EQUATION
RESIDUS DE LA TROISIEME EQUATION
RESIDUS DE LA QUATRIEME EQUATION
RESIDUS DE LA CINQUIEME EQUATION
RESIDUS DE LA SIXIEME EQUATION
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