Annexe2-Tableau 8
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 07/15/12 Time: 00:58
Sample (adjusted): 1972 2010
Included observations: 39 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
CYCLE_GOUV CYCLE_CONS CYCLE_BAL
CYCLE_GOUV(-1) 0.876338 1.853499 0.368092
(0.13528) (0.54077) (0.64990)
[ 6.47783] [ 3.42754] [ 0.56638]
CYCLE_GOUV(-2) -0.710525 0.045140 0.203361
(0.16965) (0.67814) (0.81501)
[-4.18818] [ 0.06656] [ 0.24952]
CYCLE_CONS(-1) 0.025989 0.233612 -0.158338
(0.05364) (0.21442) (0.25770)
[ 0.48448] [ 1.08949] [-0.61443]
CYCLE_CONS(-2) -0.035972 -0.112391 0.219904
(0.04893) (0.19559) (0.23507)
[-0.73517] [-0.57462] [ 0.93549]
CYCLE_BAL(-1) -0.051514 -0.167681 -0.329416
(0.04334) (0.17324) (0.20820)
[-1.18863] [-0.96792] [-1.58221]
CYCLE_BAL(-2) 0.120391 0.048507 -0.365428
(0.04576) (0.18293) (0.21985)
[ 2.63068] [ 0.26516] [-1.66215]
C -459323.3 -9440635. -4797171.
(1.1E+07) (4.3E+07) (5.2E+07)
[-0.04278] [-0.21996] [-0.09300]
R-squared 0.636159 0.435877 0.196546
Adj. R-squared 0.567939 0.330103 0.045899
Sum sq. resids 1.41E+17 2.26E+18 3.26E+18
S.E. equation 66475758 2.66E+08 3.19E+08
F-statistic 9.325085 4.120863 1.304676
Log likelihood -753.9626 -808.0018 -815.1714
Akaike AIC 39.02372 41.79496 42.16264
Schwarz SC 39.32231 42.09355 42.46122
Mean dependent -539683.6 -1070918. -1023411.
S.D. dependent 1.01E+08 3.25E+08 3.27E+08
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 1.82E+49
UNIVERSITE PEDAGOGIQUE NATIONALE : Analyse
économétrique de l'efficacité des politiques
budgétaires. Cas du Brésil, du Congo et de la RD Congo
(1970-2010) Par N'SUNDI ZALA Hugo
Page 104 sur 123
Determinant resid covariance 1.00E+49
Log likelihood -2366.199
Akaike information criterion 122.4204
Schwarz criterion 123.3162
Annexe2-Tableau 9
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 07/15/12 Time: 01:01
Sample (adjusted): 1972 2010
Included observations: 39 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
CYCLE_GOUV CYCLE_INVEST CYCLE_BAL
CYCLE_GOUV(-1) 0.817517 -0.208708 -0.477796
(0.13341) (0.69794) (0.57560)
[ 6.12766] [-0.29903] [-0.83008]
CYCLE_GOUV(-2) -0.671480 -0.004743 0.336844
(0.12538) (0.65590) (0.54093)
[-5.35569] [-0.00723] [ 0.62271]
CYCLE_INVEST(-1) 0.075765 0.032016 -0.083391
(0.03586) (0.18761) (0.15472)
[ 2.11266] [ 0.17065] [-0.53897]
CYCLE_INVEST(-2) 0.027896 -0.167549 0.621651
(0.03912) (0.20466) (0.16878)
[ 0.71308] [-0.81868] [ 3.68311]
|
CYCLE_BAL(-1)
|
-0.007824
(0.03674)
[-0.21292]
|
0.110390
(0.19223)
[ 0.57428]
|
-0.365683
(0.15853)
[-2.30670]
|
|
CYCLE_BAL(-2)
|
0.111489
|
-0.113860
|
-0.032770
|
|
(0.04155)
|
(0.21739)
|
(0.17928)
|
|
[ 2.68298]
|
[-0.52377]
|
[-0.18279]
|
|
C
|
303396.2
|
2512705.
|
-11018977
|
|
(1.0E+07)
|
(5.3E+07)
|
(4.3E+07)
|
|
[ 0.03016]
|
[ 0.04775]
|
[-0.25389]
|
|
R-squared
|
0.677493
|
0.046806
|
0.425592
|
|
Adj. R-squared
|
0.617022
|
-0.131918
|
0.317891
|
|
Sum sq. resids
|
1.25E+17
|
3.43E+18
|
2.33E+18
|
|
S.E. equation
|
62586023
|
3.27E+08
|
2.70E+08
|
|
F-statistic
|
11.20375
|
0.261888
|
3.951592
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-751.6110
|
-816.1436
|
-808.6276
|
UNIVERSITE PEDAGOGIQUE NATIONALE : Analyse
économétrique de l'efficacité des politiques
budgétaires. Cas du Brésil, du Congo et de la RD Congo
(1970-2010) Par N'SUNDI ZALA Hugo
Page 105 sur 123
|
Akaike AIC
|
38.90313
|
42.21249
|
41.82706
|
|
Schwarz SC
|
39.20172
|
42.51108
|
42.12564
|
|
Mean dependent
|
-539683.6
|
-1426090.
|
-1023411.
|
|
S.D. dependent
|
1.01E+08
|
3.08E+08
|
3.27E+08
|
|
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
|
|
2.15E+49
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance
|
|
1.19E+49
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
|
-2369.523
|
|
|
Akaike information criterion
|
|
122.5909
|
|
|
Schwarz criterion
|
|
123.4867
|
|
| 
