IV.2.3- Selection of developmental indicators for the
informal sector
Within the framework of our research, indicators of informal
sector development related to performance (social and financial) is illustrated
by the number of deposits and the number of gross loans granted by microfinance
institutions, all things being equal (Ceteris Paribus). Table 6 resulting from
table 3 of section III.1.2 on the evolution of the activity of microfinance in
Cameroun from 2002 to 2010 illustrates this situation clearly.
53
Analysis of microfinances' performance and
development of informal institutions in Cameroon
By Djamaman Brice Gaétan
Table 6: evolution of fixed deposits and gross loan
from 2002 to 2010
|
Years
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2010
|
|
Fixed deposits
|
66727
|
55769
|
98743
|
116840
|
162427
|
194830
|
258220
|
373872
|
|
Gross loan
|
44748
|
56077
|
65402
|
70795
|
104173
|
117233
|
138523
|
221378
|
Source COBAC
Under to this table, we obtained the following figure:
Figure2: Evolution of fixed deposits and gross loan
from 2002 to 2010
|
400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000
50000
0
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed deposits and goss loan
|
|
Years
Fixed deposit* Gross loan*
|
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Years
*in Million FCFA
The observation of the figure shows that deposits and gross
loans change in the same direction, but the increase in gross loans is less
proportional than bank deposits. In the first year, there was a slight increase
in savings from the credit to this sector. In year 2, the amount of deposits is
substantially equal to the credits, but with a slight decrease with respect to
savings. Then the situation changes proportionally to year 5 where we observe
that the volume of savings has significantly increased (in reference to the
year 1), and this is due to the proliferation of small and medium enterprises
which promotes the mobilization of a large volume of informal savings.
Subsequently, the position of deposits and loans is growing exponentially until
reaching in 2010 the respective amounts of 373,872 million and 221,378
million.
54
Analysis of microfinances' performance and
development of informal institutions in Cameroon
By Djamaman Brice Gaétan
IV.2.4- Selection of the control variables
For reasons of robustness, three control variables are used in
the regression explaining the performance (both social and financial) of MFIs,
namely: Total Asset, Coefficient of Activity and Hedge Loans by Available
Resources.
Those indicators have been chosen with reference to the
research environment. In fact, and in spite of scarcity of data, the control
variables reflect perfectly and respectively the capital structure, a day to
day activities and available resources of the MFIs environment
IV.3- The research hypothesis and research model
In this section, we are going to
give guidelines about the formulation of research hypothesis.
Firstly, the research concentrates on the financial
performance of MFIs. The general assumption under this hypothesis (H1) is that:
social performance influences financial performance of MFIs. This
hypothesis can be subdivided into two categories as follows:
? Positive link, H1a: «influence of social
performance on financial performance implies a good management of
MFI»;
? Negative link, H1b: «influence of social
performance on financial performance implies arbitration». This
hypothesis means that any socially responsible initiative moves away the
leaders from their objective for profit maximization (this hypothesis lead to
the occurrence of mission drift by MFIs)
Secondly the research focuses on hypothesis two (H2) which
assumes that: «financial performance influences social
performance». As we have undertaken in the first hypothesis, the
second can also be subdivided into two categories such as positive and negative
links
? Positive link, H2a: «good financial performance
enables the firm to allocate some margin to social issues» this
hypothesis implies the availability of fund by the microfinance institution.
Thus, an allowance resulting from good economic figures brings in an
improvement of SP
? Negative link, H2b: «financially powerful companies
are the worse in terms of SP because of their leaders' greed, who do not share
the margin»
55
Analysis of microfinances' performance and
development of informal institutions in Cameroon
By Djamaman Brice Gaétan
Apart from the above hypothesis, it is important to remember
that our study takes into consideration not only social and financial aspects,
but also the relationship between these aspects and development of informal
institutions in Cameroon. Indeed we have included some variables in our
research which are correlated to the development of the informal sector. The
aforesaid variables are Fixed Deposit and Gross Loan.
Consequently, in a bid to reach one of our objectives (which
is to show the relationship between microfinance performance and the
development of non-formal institutions) we have stated another hypothesis as
follows:
? 113: «financial performance influences the
development of informal sector»
The idea behind this hypothesis is that the improvement of
financial performance indicators could contribute to increase the fixed deposit
and gross loan of MFIs. The latter allowing the measurement of the growth of
small and medium size enterprises, ceteris paribus.
? 114: «social performance influences the development
of the informal sector»
This hypothesis implies that more contact of MFIs with the
poorest population (those who cannot access to the classical bank system) will
contribute to improve the amount of fixed deposits and gross loan.
Figure 3: Summary of research
hypothesis
SOCIAL
PERFORMANCE
FINAACIAL
PERFORMANCE
H1
H2
H4 H3
DEVELOPMENT OF
INFORMAL SECTOR
| 
