Annexes
Annexe 1
Le conseil d'administration d'Enda
Inter-Arabe
Mohsen Boujbel Homme
d'affaires. Ancien Secrétaire d'Etat à
l'Agriculture. Jameleddine Chichti Professeur
d'économie à l'Université de Tunis.
Ancien Conseiller du Président de la
République. Nebiha Gueddana Directrice
générale de l'Office National de la Famille et de la Population.
Ancienne Secrétaire d'Etat aux Affaires Sociales.
Moncef
Zaafrane Banquier. Ancien
Ministre. Chedli Ounis Consultant
auprès de différentes sociétés tunisiennes.
Ancien Banquier (Arab Tunisian Bank et Banque Centrale de
Tunisie). Selma Bellagha Directeur
général de Alternative Capital Partners, société
tunisienne de gestion de fonds.
|
|
|
Annexe 2
Descriptive Statistics
|
|
N
|
Minimum
|
Maximum
|
Mean
|
Std. Deviation
|
age du client
|
16019
|
14
|
79
|
38,00
|
10,648
|
montant du pret
|
16021
|
100
|
5000
|
542,04
|
408,043
|
nombre de mensualité
|
16021
|
1
|
36
|
8,41
|
2,904
|
taille du menage (excepte le client)
|
15995
|
0
|
90
|
4,16
|
2,655
|
nombre de prets reçus
|
16021
|
1
|
35
|
3,40
|
3,087
|
montant precedent
|
16021
|
,00
|
5000,00
|
387,0358
|
432,35573
|
passage en montant
|
16021
|
-4500,00
|
5000,00
|
155,0091
|
344,41011
|
dummy du retard (retard=1)
|
16021
|
0
|
1
|
,18
|
,387
|
annee d'octroi du pret
|
16021
|
2005
|
2008
|
2006,90
|
1,028
|
annee de cloture du pret
|
11410
|
2005,00
|
2008,00
|
2007,0700
|
,92259
|
dummy du groupe solidaire
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,4432
|
,49678
|
dummy du produit individuel
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,4201
|
,49360
|
dummy du produit solfa
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,0600
|
,23746
|
dummy du produit forsa
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,0039
|
,06259
|
dummy du produit taalim
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,0544
|
,22675
|
dummy du produit elevage
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,0760
|
,26505
|
dummy genre (homme=1)
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,1875
|
,39033
|
dummy marie
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,7461
|
,43526
|
dummy veuf
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,0248
|
,15546
|
dummy_divorce
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,0361
|
,18649
|
dummy sait lire (client)
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,0805
|
,27201
|
dummy études primaires
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,6630
|
,47270
|
dummy études secondaires
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,0840
|
,27742
|
dummy études supérieures
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,0086
|
,09208
|
dummy activite commerce
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,6103
|
,48771
|
dummy activite production
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,1476
|
,35467
|
dummy activite service
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,1197
|
,32457
|
dummy agent de credit homme (=1)
|
16021
|
,00
|
1,00
|
,5940
|
,49109
|
experience de l'agent de credit (negatif si passation)
|
16021
|
-19,00
|
123,00
|
22,9120
|
24,49068
|
Valid N (listwise)
|
11387
|
|
|
|
|
montant du pret * dummy du retard (retard=1)
Crosstabulation
|
|
|
|
dummy du retard (retard=1)
|
Total
|
|
|
|
pas de retard
|
retard
|
montant du pret
|
100
|
Count
|
61
|
9
|
70
|
% within montant du pret
|
87,1%
|
12,9%
|
100,0%
|
150
|
Count
|
448
|
50
|
498
|
% within montant du pret
|
90,0%
|
10,0%
|
100,0%
|
200
|
Count
|
2445
|
368
|
2813
|
% within montant du pret
|
86,9%
|
13,1%
|
100,0%
|
300
|
Count
|
2231
|
389
|
2620
|
% within montant du pret
|
85,2%
|
14,8%
|
100,0%
|
400
|
Count
|
1799
|
425
|
2224
|
% within montant du pret
|
80,9%
|
19,1%
|
100,0%
|
500
|
Count
|
1809
|
485
|
2294
|
% within montant du pret
|
78,9%
|
21,1%
|
100,0%
|
600
|
Count
|
925
|
232
|
1157
|
% within montant du pret
|
79,9%
|
20,1%
|
100,0%
|
700
|
Count
|
675
|
215
|
890
|
% within montant du pret
|
75,8%
|
24,2%
|
100,0%
|
800
|
Count
|
869
|
266
|
1135
|
% within montant du pret
|
76,6%
|
23,4%
|
100,0%
|
1000
|
Count
|
915
|
254
|
1169
|
% within montant du pret
|
78,3%
|
21,7%
|
100,0%
|
1200
|
Count
|
416
|
129
|
545
|
% within montant du pret
|
76,3%
|
23,7%
|
100,0%
|
1500
|
Count
|
236
|
64
|
300
|
% within montant du pret
|
78,7%
|
21,3%
|
100,0%
|
1700
|
Count
|
65
|
16
|
81
|
% within montant du pret
|
80,2%
|
19,8%
|
100,0%
|
2000
|
Count
|
81
|
25
|
106
|
% within montant du pret
|
76,4%
|
23,6%
|
100,0%
|
2200
|
Count
|
7
|
1
|
8
|
% within montant du pret
|
87,5%
|
12,5%
|
100,0%
|
2500
|
Count
|
36
|
5
|
41
|
% within montant du pret
|
87,8%
|
12,2%
|
100,0%
|
2700
|
Count
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
% within montant du pret
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
3000
|
Count
|
30
|
7
|
37
|
% within montant du pret
|
81,1%
|
18,9%
|
100,0%
|
3500
|
Count
|
6
|
1
|
7
|
% within montant du pret
|
85,7%
|
14,3%
|
100,0%
|
4000
|
Count
|
9
|
3
|
12
|
% within montant du pret
|
75,0%
|
25,0%
|
100,0%
|
4500
|
Count
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
% within montant du pret
|
50,0%
|
50,0%
|
100,0%
|
5000
|
Count
|
8
|
1
|
9
|
% within montant du pret
|
88,9%
|
11,1%
|
100,0%
|
Total
|
Count
|
13074
|
2947
|
16021
|
% within montant du pret
|
81,6%
|
18,4%
|
100,0%
|
nombre de mensualité * dummy du retard (retard=1)
Crosstabulation
|
|
|
|
dummy du retard
|
Total
|
|
|
|
pas de retard
|
retard
|
nombre de mensualité
|
1
|
Count
|
18
|
0
|
18
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
2
|
Count
|
250
|
35
|
285
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
87,7%
|
12,3%
|
100,0%
|
3
|
Count
|
569
|
104
|
673
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
84,5%
|
15,5%
|
100,0%
|
4
|
Count
|
185
|
10
|
195
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
94,9%
|
5,1%
|
100,0%
|
5
|
Count
|
5
|
1
|
6
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
83,3%
|
16,7%
|
100,0%
|
6
|
Count
|
3832
|
601
|
4433
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
86,4%
|
13,6%
|
100,0%
|
7
|
Count
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
8
|
Count
|
2958
|
617
|
3575
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
82,7%
|
17,3%
|
100,0%
|
9
|
Count
|
3
|
1
|
4
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
75,0%
|
25,0%
|
100,0%
|
10
|
Count
|
2798
|
798
|
3596
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
77,8%
|
22,2%
|
100,0%
|
12
|
Count
|
2323
|
745
|
3068
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
75,7%
|
24,3%
|
100,0%
|
14
|
Count
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
15
|
Count
|
9
|
0
|
9
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
16
|
Count
|
6
|
1
|
7
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
85,7%
|
14,3%
|
100,0%
|
18
|
Count
|
81
|
24
|
105
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
77,1%
|
22,9%
|
100,0%
|
20
|
Count
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
22
|
Count
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
24
|
Count
|
32
|
6
|
38
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
84,2%
|
15,8%
|
100,0%
|
36
|
Count
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
20,0%
|
80,0%
|
100,0%
|
Total
|
Count
|
13074
|
2947
|
16021
|
% within nombre de mensualité
|
81,6%
|
18,4%
|
100,0%
|
age du client * dummy du retard (retard=1)
Crosstabulation
|
|
|
|
dummy du retard (retard=1)
|
Total
|
|
|
|
pas de retard
|
retard
|
age du client
|
14
|
Count
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
% within age du client
|
60,0%
|
40,0%
|
100,0%
|
15
|
Count
|
6
|
2
|
8
|
% within age du client
|
75,0%
|
25,0%
|
100,0%
|
16
|
Count
|
28
|
8
|
36
|
% within age du client
|
77,8%
|
22,2%
|
100,0%
|
17
|
Count
|
44
|
16
|
60
|
% within age du client
|
73,3%
|
26,7%
|
100,0%
|
18
|
Count
|
97
|
15
|
112
|
% within age du client
|
86,6%
|
13,4%
|
100,0%
|
19
|
Count
|
132
|
28
|
160
|
% within age du client
|
82,5%
|
17,5%
|
100,0%
|
20
|
Count
|
143
|
45
|
188
|
% within age du client
|
76,1%
|
23,9%
|
100,0%
|
21
|
Count
|
224
|
59
|
283
|
% within age du client
|
79,2%
|
20,8%
|
100,0%
|
22
|
Count
|
240
|
45
|
285
|
% within age du client
|
84,2%
|
15,8%
|
100,0%
|
23
|
Count
|
267
|
76
|
343
|
% within age du client
|
77,8%
|
22,2%
|
100,0%
|
24
|
Count
|
242
|
102
|
344
|
% within age du client
|
70,3%
|
29,7%
|
100,0%
|
25
|
Count
|
301
|
89
|
390
|
% within age du client
|
77,2%
|
22,8%
|
100,0%
|
26
|
Count
|
308
|
80
|
388
|
% within age du client
|
79,4%
|
20,6%
|
100,0%
|
27
|
Count
|
338
|
97
|
435
|
% within age du client
|
77,7%
|
22,3%
|
100,0%
|
28
|
Count
|
362
|
85
|
447
|
% within age du client
|
81,0%
|
19,0%
|
100,0%
|
29
|
Count
|
335
|
111
|
446
|
% within age du client
|
75,1%
|
24,9%
|
100,0%
|
30
|
Count
|
391
|
59
|
450
|
% within age du client
|
86,9%
|
13,1%
|
100,0%
|
31
|
Count
|
409
|
88
|
497
|
% within age du client
|
82,3%
|
17,7%
|
100,0%
|
32
|
Count
|
388
|
85
|
473
|
% within age du client
|
82,0%
|
18,0%
|
100,0%
|
33
|
Count
|
355
|
87
|
442
|
% within age du client
|
80,3%
|
19,7%
|
100,0%
|
34
|
Count
|
373
|
95
|
468
|
% within age du client
|
79,7%
|
20,3%
|
100,0%
|
35
|
Count
|
398
|
81
|
479
|
% within age du client
|
83,1%
|
16,9%
|
100,0%
|
36
|
Count
|
417
|
85
|
502
|
% within age du client
|
83,1%
|
16,9%
|
100,0%
|
37
|
Count
|
390
|
111
|
501
|
% within age du client
|
77,8%
|
22,2%
|
100,0%
|
38
|
Count
|
489
|
88
|
577
|
% within age du client
|
84,7%
|
15,3%
|
100,0%
|
39
|
Count
|
454
|
93
|
547
|
% within age du client
|
83,0%
|
17,0%
|
100,0%
|
40
|
Count
|
459
|
84
|
543
|
% within age du client
|
84,5%
|
15,5%
|
100,0%
|
41
|
Count
|
465
|
92
|
557
|
% within age du client
|
83,5%
|
16,5%
|
100,0%
|
42
|
Count
|
431
|
76
|
507
|
% within age du client
|
85,0%
|
15,0%
|
100,0%
|
43
|
Count
|
433
|
103
|
536
|
% within age du client
|
80,8%
|
19,2%
|
100,0%
|
44
|
Count
|
398
|
83
|
481
|
% within age du client
|
82,7%
|
17,3%
|
100,0%
|
45
|
Count
|
416
|
75
|
491
|
% within age du client
|
84,7%
|
15,3%
|
100,0%
|
46
|
Count
|
353
|
68
|
421
|
% within age du client
|
83,8%
|
16,2%
|
100,0%
|
47
|
Count
|
367
|
77
|
444
|
% within age du client
|
82,7%
|
17,3%
|
100,0%
|
48
|
Count
|
319
|
78
|
397
|
% within age du client
|
80,4%
|
19,6%
|
100,0%
|
49
|
Count
|
320
|
76
|
396
|
% within age du client
|
80,8%
|
19,2%
|
100,0%
|
50
|
Count
|
290
|
57
|
347
|
% within age du client
|
83,6%
|
16,4%
|
100,0%
|
51
|
Count
|
263
|
51
|
314
|
% within age du client
|
83,8%
|
16,2%
|
100,0%
|
52
|
Count
|
211
|
35
|
246
|
% within age du client
|
85,8%
|
14,2%
|
100,0%
|
53
|
Count
|
231
|
38
|
269
|
% within age du client
|
85,9%
|
14,1%
|
100,0%
|
54
|
Count
|
154
|
31
|
185
|
% within age du client
|
83,2%
|
16,8%
|
100,0%
|
55
|
Count
|
122
|
25
|
147
|
% within age du client
|
83,0%
|
17,0%
|
100,0%
|
56
|
Count
|
140
|
32
|
172
|
% within age du client
|
81,4%
|
18,6%
|
100,0%
|
57
|
Count
|
104
|
18
|
122
|
% within age du client
|
85,2%
|
14,8%
|
100,0%
|
58
|
Count
|
96
|
25
|
121
|
% within age du client
|
79,3%
|
20,7%
|
100,0%
|
59
|
Count
|
79
|
24
|
103
|
% within age du client
|
76,7%
|
23,3%
|
100,0%
|
60
|
Count
|
63
|
12
|
75
|
% within age du client
|
84,0%
|
16,0%
|
100,0%
|
61
|
Count
|
39
|
12
|
51
|
% within age du client
|
76,5%
|
23,5%
|
100,0%
|
62
|
Count
|
48
|
5
|
53
|
% within age du client
|
90,6%
|
9,4%
|
100,0%
|
63
|
Count
|
32
|
5
|
37
|
% within age du client
|
86,5%
|
13,5%
|
100,0%
|
64
|
Count
|
28
|
9
|
37
|
% within age du client
|
75,7%
|
24,3%
|
100,0%
|
65
|
Count
|
22
|
6
|
28
|
% within age du client
|
78,6%
|
21,4%
|
100,0%
|
66
|
Count
|
6
|
3
|
9
|
% within age du client
|
66,7%
|
33,3%
|
100,0%
|
67
|
Count
|
10
|
5
|
15
|
% within age du client
|
66,7%
|
33,3%
|
100,0%
|
68
|
Count
|
17
|
3
|
20
|
% within age du client
|
85,0%
|
15,0%
|
100,0%
|
69
|
Count
|
4
|
2
|
6
|
% within age du client
|
66,7%
|
33,3%
|
100,0%
|
71
|
Count
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
% within age du client
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
72
|
Count
|
5
|
1
|
6
|
% within age du client
|
83,3%
|
16,7%
|
100,0%
|
73
|
Count
|
4
|
1
|
5
|
% within age du client
|
80,0%
|
20,0%
|
100,0%
|
74
|
Count
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
% within age du client
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
75
|
Count
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
% within age du client
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
76
|
Count
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
% within age du client
|
66,7%
|
33,3%
|
100,0%
|
77
|
Count
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
% within age du client
|
50,0%
|
50,0%
|
100,0%
|
79
|
Count
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
% within age du client
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
100,0%
|
Total
|
Count
|
13072
|
2947
|
16019
|
% within age du client
|
81,6%
|
18,4%
|
100,0%
|
nombre de prets reçus * dummy du retard
(retard=1) Crosstabulation
|
|
|
|
dummy du retard (retard=1)
|
Total
|
|
|
|
pas de retard
|
retard
|
nombre de prets reçus
|
1
|
Count
|
4443
|
684
|
5127
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
86,7%
|
13,3%
|
100,0%
|
2
|
Count
|
2802
|
578
|
3380
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
82,9%
|
17,1%
|
100,0%
|
3
|
Count
|
1721
|
444
|
2165
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
79,5%
|
20,5%
|
100,0%
|
4
|
Count
|
1152
|
339
|
1491
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
77,3%
|
22,7%
|
100,0%
|
5
|
Count
|
743
|
222
|
965
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
77,0%
|
23,0%
|
100,0%
|
6
|
Count
|
561
|
193
|
754
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
74,4%
|
25,6%
|
100,0%
|
7
|
Count
|
449
|
123
|
572
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
78,5%
|
21,5%
|
100,0%
|
8
|
Count
|
343
|
100
|
443
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
77,4%
|
22,6%
|
100,0%
|
9
|
Count
|
231
|
72
|
303
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
76,2%
|
23,8%
|
100,0%
|
10
|
Count
|
174
|
57
|
231
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
75,3%
|
24,7%
|
100,0%
|
11
|
Count
|
124
|
31
|
155
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
80,0%
|
20,0%
|
100,0%
|
12
|
Count
|
93
|
30
|
123
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
75,6%
|
24,4%
|
100,0%
|
13
|
Count
|
59
|
18
|
77
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
76,6%
|
23,4%
|
100,0%
|
14
|
Count
|
45
|
15
|
60
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
75,0%
|
25,0%
|
100,0%
|
15
|
Count
|
27
|
14
|
41
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
65,9%
|
34,1%
|
100,0%
|
16
|
Count
|
31
|
4
|
35
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
88,6%
|
11,4%
|
100,0%
|
17
|
Count
|
23
|
7
|
30
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
76,7%
|
23,3%
|
100,0%
|
18
|
Count
|
13
|
6
|
19
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
68,4%
|
31,6%
|
100,0%
|
19
|
Count
|
13
|
2
|
15
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
86,7%
|
13,3%
|
100,0%
|
20
|
Count
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
50,0%
|
50,0%
|
100,0%
|
21
|
Count
|
3
|
1
|
4
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
75,0%
|
25,0%
|
100,0%
|
22
|
Count
|
5
|
0
|
5
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
23
|
Count
|
3
|
1
|
4
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
75,0%
|
25,0%
|
100,0%
|
24
|
Count
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
25
|
Count
|
3
|
1
|
4
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
75,0%
|
25,0%
|
100,0%
|
26
|
Count
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
27
|
Count
|
5
|
0
|
5
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
28
|
Count
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
50,0%
|
50,0%
|
100,0%
|
30
|
Count
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
33
|
Count
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
100,0%
|
35
|
Count
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
Total
|
Count
|
13074
|
2947
|
16021
|
% within nombre de prets reçus
|
81,6%
|
18,4%
|
100,0%
|
montant precedent * dummy du retard (retard=1)
Crosstabulation
|
|
|
|
dummy du retard (retard=1)
|
Total
|
|
|
|
pas de retard
|
retard
|
montant precedent
|
,00
|
Count
|
4443
|
684
|
5127
|
% within montant precedent
|
86,7%
|
13,3%
|
100,0%
|
100,00
|
Count
|
32
|
2
|
34
|
% within montant precedent
|
94,1%
|
5,9%
|
100,0%
|
150,00
|
Count
|
379
|
59
|
438
|
% within montant precedent
|
86,5%
|
13,5%
|
100,0%
|
200,00
|
Count
|
1500
|
306
|
1806
|
% within montant precedent
|
83,1%
|
16,9%
|
100,0%
|
300,00
|
Count
|
1141
|
304
|
1445
|
% within montant precedent
|
79,0%
|
21,0%
|
100,0%
|
400,00
|
Count
|
1153
|
301
|
1454
|
% within montant precedent
|
79,3%
|
20,7%
|
100,0%
|
500,00
|
Count
|
991
|
343
|
1334
|
% within montant precedent
|
74,3%
|
25,7%
|
100,0%
|
600,00
|
Count
|
750
|
226
|
976
|
% within montant precedent
|
76,8%
|
23,2%
|
100,0%
|
700,00
|
Count
|
571
|
143
|
714
|
% within montant precedent
|
80,0%
|
20,0%
|
100,0%
|
800,00
|
Count
|
699
|
178
|
877
|
% within montant precedent
|
79,7%
|
20,3%
|
100,0%
|
1000,00
|
Count
|
722
|
202
|
924
|
% within montant precedent
|
78,1%
|
21,9%
|
100,0%
|
1200,00
|
Count
|
351
|
105
|
456
|
% within montant precedent
|
77,0%
|
23,0%
|
100,0%
|
1500,00
|
Count
|
175
|
53
|
228
|
% within montant precedent
|
76,8%
|
23,2%
|
100,0%
|
1700,00
|
Count
|
37
|
10
|
47
|
% within montant precedent
|
78,7%
|
21,3%
|
100,0%
|
2000,00
|
Count
|
64
|
15
|
79
|
% within montant precedent
|
81,0%
|
19,0%
|
100,0%
|
2200,00
|
Count
|
7
|
3
|
10
|
% within montant precedent
|
70,0%
|
30,0%
|
100,0%
|
2500,00
|
Count
|
20
|
3
|
23
|
% within montant precedent
|
87,0%
|
13,0%
|
100,0%
|
2700,00
|
Count
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
% within montant precedent
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
3000,00
|
Count
|
19
|
6
|
25
|
% within montant precedent
|
76,0%
|
24,0%
|
100,0%
|
3500,00
|
Count
|
9
|
0
|
9
|
% within montant precedent
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
4000,00
|
Count
|
7
|
1
|
8
|
% within montant precedent
|
87,5%
|
12,5%
|
100,0%
|
4500,00
|
Count
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
% within montant precedent
|
100,0%
|
,0%
|
100,0%
|
5000,00
|
Count
|
2
|
3
|
5
|
% within montant precedent
|
40,0%
|
60,0%
|
100,0%
|
Total
|
Count
|
13074
|
2947
|
16021
|
% within montant precedent
|
81,6%
|
18,4%
|
100,0%
|
dummy genre (homme=1) * dummy du retard (retard=1)
Crosstabulation
|
|
|
|
dummy du retard (retard=1)
|
Total
|
|
|
|
pas de retard
|
retard
|
dummy genre (homme=1)
|
,00
|
Count
|
10728
|
2289
|
13017
|
% within dummy genre (homme=1)
|
82,4%
|
17,6%
|
100,0%
|
1,00
|
Count
|
2346
|
658
|
3004
|
% within dummy genre (homme=1)
|
78,1%
|
21,9%
|
100,0%
|
Total
|
Count
|
13074
|
2947
|
16021
|
% within dummy genre (homme=1)
|
81,6%
|
18,4%
|
100,0%
|
dummy agent de credit homme (=1) * dummy du retard
(retard=1) Crosstabulation
|
|
|
|
dummy du retard (retard=1)
|
Total
|
|
|
|
pas de retard
|
retard
|
dummy agent de credit homme (=1)
|
,00
|
Count
|
5353
|
1151
|
6504
|
% within dummy agent de credit homme (=1)
|
82,3%
|
17,7%
|
100,0%
|
1,00
|
Count
|
7721
|
1796
|
9517
|
% within dummy agent de credit homme (=1)
|
81,1%
|
18,9%
|
100,0%
|
Total
|
Count
|
13074
|
2947
|
16021
|
% within dummy agent de credit homme (=1)
|
81,6%
|
18,4%
|
100,0%
|
Annexe 3
PREMIER MODELE
Variables dans l'équation
|
|
B
|
E.S.
|
Wald
|
ddl
|
Signif.
|
Exp(B)
|
Etape 1(a)
|
DUMMY_FA
|
,750
|
,041
|
328,855
|
1
|
,000
|
2,117
|
Constante
|
-1,848
|
,030
|
3726,543
|
1
|
,000
|
,158
|
Etape 2(b)
|
NUMBEROF
|
,059
|
,007
|
65,324
|
1
|
,000
|
1,061
|
DUMMY_FA
|
,653
|
,043
|
231,226
|
1
|
,000
|
1,922
|
Constante
|
-2,314
|
,066
|
1217,880
|
1
|
,000
|
,099
|
Etape 3(c)
|
NUMBEROF
|
,082
|
,008
|
110,552
|
1
|
,000
|
1,085
|
PASSAGEM
|
-,001
|
,000
|
85,992
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
DUMMY_FA
|
,700
|
,044
|
255,382
|
1
|
,000
|
2,015
|
Constante
|
-2,446
|
,068
|
1281,270
|
1
|
,000
|
,087
|
Etape 4(d)
|
NUMBEROF
|
,087
|
,008
|
121,798
|
1
|
,000
|
1,090
|
PASSAGEM
|
-,001
|
,000
|
93,163
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
DUMMY_FA
|
,683
|
,044
|
241,264
|
1
|
,000
|
1,979
|
DUMMY_MA
|
-,317
|
,046
|
47,260
|
1
|
,000
|
,728
|
Constante
|
-2,241
|
,074
|
917,829
|
1
|
,000
|
,106
|
Etape 5(e)
|
NUMBEROF
|
,085
|
,008
|
117,533
|
1
|
,000
|
1,089
|
PASSAGEM
|
-,001
|
,000
|
69,778
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
DUMMY_FA
|
,632
|
,045
|
198,255
|
1
|
,000
|
1,881
|
DUMMY_MA
|
-,323
|
,046
|
49,102
|
1
|
,000
|
,724
|
EXPERIEN
|
,005
|
,001
|
32,385
|
1
|
,000
|
1,005
|
Constante
|
-2,323
|
,075
|
951,761
|
1
|
,000
|
,098
|
Etape 6(f)
|
NUMBEROF
|
,090
|
,008
|
128,755
|
1
|
,000
|
1,094
|
AGE
|
-,010
|
,002
|
23,577
|
1
|
,000
|
,990
|
PASSAGEM
|
-,001
|
,000
|
78,860
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
DUMMY_FA
|
,632
|
,045
|
197,876
|
1
|
,000
|
1,881
|
DUMMY_MA
|
-,244
|
,049
|
24,851
|
1
|
,000
|
,783
|
EXPERIEN
|
,005
|
,001
|
36,259
|
1
|
,000
|
1,005
|
Constante
|
-2,037
|
,095
|
459,955
|
1
|
,000
|
,130
|
Etape 7(g)
|
NUMBEROF
|
,092
|
,008
|
135,976
|
1
|
,000
|
1,097
|
AGE
|
-,010
|
,002
|
21,354
|
1
|
,000
|
,990
|
PASSAGEM
|
-,001
|
,000
|
86,821
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
DUMMY_FA
|
,611
|
,045
|
182,648
|
1
|
,000
|
1,842
|
DUMMY_HO
|
,238
|
,052
|
21,008
|
1
|
,000
|
1,269
|
DUMMY_MA
|
-,229
|
,049
|
21,635
|
1
|
,000
|
,795
|
EXPERIEN
|
,005
|
,001
|
39,392
|
1
|
,000
|
1,005
|
Constante
|
-2,127
|
,097
|
479,426
|
1
|
,000
|
,119
|
Etape 8(h)
|
AMOUNT
|
,000
|
,000
|
18,492
|
1
|
,000
|
1,000
|
NUMBEROF
|
,120
|
,010
|
138,062
|
1
|
,000
|
1,127
|
AGE
|
-,009
|
,002
|
18,619
|
1
|
,000
|
,991
|
PASSAGEM
|
-,001
|
,000
|
74,684
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
DUMMY_FA
|
,648
|
,046
|
198,546
|
1
|
,000
|
1,912
|
DUMMY_HO
|
,252
|
,052
|
23,375
|
1
|
,000
|
1,287
|
DUMMY_MA
|
-,234
|
,049
|
22,452
|
1
|
,000
|
,792
|
EXPERIEN
|
,006
|
,001
|
47,369
|
1
|
,000
|
1,006
|
Constante
|
-2,246
|
,102
|
489,472
|
1
|
,000
|
,106
|
Etape 9(i)
|
AMOUNT
|
-,001
|
,000
|
28,286
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
NUMBEROF
|
,119
|
,010
|
135,638
|
1
|
,000
|
1,126
|
AGE
|
-,010
|
,002
|
21,582
|
1
|
,000
|
,990
|
CYCLE
|
,038
|
,012
|
10,787
|
1
|
,001
|
1,039
|
PASSAGEM
|
,000
|
,000
|
12,200
|
1
|
,000
|
1,000
|
DUMMY_FA
|
,643
|
,046
|
195,017
|
1
|
,000
|
1,902
|
DUMMY_HO
|
,272
|
,053
|
26,903
|
1
|
,000
|
1,313
|
DUMMY_MA
|
-,232
|
,049
|
22,145
|
1
|
,000
|
,793
|
EXPERIEN
|
,005
|
,001
|
39,331
|
1
|
,000
|
1,005
|
Constante
|
-2,255
|
,101
|
494,098
|
1
|
,000
|
,105
|
Etape 10(j)
|
AMOUNT
|
-,001
|
,000
|
31,989
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
NUMBEROF
|
,132
|
,012
|
125,016
|
1
|
,000
|
1,141
|
AGE
|
-,010
|
,002
|
21,522
|
1
|
,000
|
,990
|
CYCLE
|
,036
|
,012
|
9,583
|
1
|
,002
|
1,037
|
PASSAGEM
|
,000
|
,000
|
7,523
|
1
|
,006
|
1,000
|
DUMMY_FA
|
,661
|
,047
|
199,282
|
1
|
,000
|
1,937
|
DUMMY_SO
|
,293
|
,132
|
4,884
|
1
|
,027
|
1,340
|
DUMMY_HO
|
,269
|
,053
|
26,247
|
1
|
,000
|
1,309
|
DUMMY_MA
|
-,231
|
,049
|
21,798
|
1
|
,000
|
,794
|
EXPERIEN
|
,005
|
,001
|
39,130
|
1
|
,000
|
1,005
|
Constante
|
-2,361
|
,112
|
440,884
|
1
|
,000
|
,094
|
Etape 11(k)
|
AMOUNT
|
1,25E+12
|
322,625
|
1,51E+19
|
1
|
,000
|
,
|
NUMBEROF
|
,131
|
,011
|
131,752
|
1
|
,000
|
1,140
|
AGE
|
-,010
|
,002
|
21,831
|
1
|
,000
|
,990
|
CYCLE
|
,042
|
,011
|
13,411
|
1
|
,000
|
1,043
|
PREVAMOU
|
-1,25E+12
|
322,625
|
1,51E+19
|
1
|
,000
|
,000
|
PASSAGEM
|
-1,25E+12
|
322,625
|
1,51E+19
|
1
|
,000
|
,000
|
DUMMY_FA
|
,671
|
,046
|
212,722
|
1
|
,000
|
1,956
|
DUMMY_SO
|
,299
|
,130
|
5,280
|
1
|
,022
|
1,348
|
DUMMY_HO
|
,265
|
,052
|
26,260
|
1
|
,000
|
1,304
|
DUMMY_MA
|
-,233
|
,049
|
22,990
|
1
|
,000
|
,792
|
EXPERIEN
|
,005
|
,001
|
40,447
|
1
|
,000
|
1,005
|
Constante
|
-2,377
|
,110
|
464,541
|
1
|
,000
|
,093
|
a Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 1: DUMMY_FA.
|
b Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 2: NUMBEROF.
|
c Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 3: PASSAGEM.
|
d Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 4: DUMMY_MA.
|
e Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 5: EXPERIEN.
|
f Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 6: AGE.
|
g Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 7: DUMMY_HO.
|
h Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 8: AMOUNT.
|
i Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 9: CYCLE.
|
j Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 10:
DUMMY_SO.
|
k Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 11:
PREVAMOU.
|
Variables hors de l'équation
|
Score
|
ddl
|
Signif.
|
Etape 1
|
Variables
|
AMOUNT
|
2,692
|
1
|
,101
|
NUMBEROF
|
65,973
|
1
|
,000
|
AGE
|
18,164
|
1
|
,000
|
NOOFDEPE
|
,007
|
1
|
,935
|
CYCLE
|
53,898
|
1
|
,000
|
PREVAMOU
|
38,441
|
1
|
,000
|
PASSAGEM
|
39,522
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_GS
|
35,349
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_SO
|
,889
|
1
|
,346
|
DUMMY_FO
|
,045
|
1
|
,832
|
DUMMY_TA
|
33,340
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_EL
|
,000
|
1
|
,984
|
DUMMY_HO
|
11,137
|
1
|
,001
|
DUMMY_MA
|
33,526
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_VE
|
,088
|
1
|
,767
|
DUMMY_DI
|
1,300
|
1
|
,254
|
DUMMY_LI
|
,001
|
1
|
,976
|
DUMMY_PR
|
1,512
|
1
|
,219
|
DUMMY_SE
|
1,080
|
1
|
,299
|
DUMMY_SU
|
1,604
|
1
|
,205
|
DUMMY_CO
|
,027
|
1
|
,871
|
V28_A
|
,063
|
1
|
,802
|
V29_A
|
,769
|
1
|
,381
|
DUMMY_AC
|
2,403
|
1
|
,121
|
EXPERIEN
|
50,187
|
1
|
,000
|
Etape 2
|
Variables
|
AMOUNT
|
20,682
|
1
|
,000
|
AGE
|
26,007
|
1
|
,000
|
NOOFDEPE
|
,153
|
1
|
,696
|
CYCLE
|
28,522
|
1
|
,000
|
PREVAMOU
|
12,796
|
1
|
,000
|
PASSAGEM
|
88,061
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_GS
|
39,194
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_SO
|
23,229
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_FO
|
,025
|
1
|
,874
|
DUMMY_TA
|
16,714
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_EL
|
,065
|
1
|
,798
|
DUMMY_HO
|
14,100
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_MA
|
40,169
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_VE
|
,198
|
1
|
,656
|
DUMMY_DI
|
1,191
|
1
|
,275
|
DUMMY_LI
|
,208
|
1
|
,648
|
DUMMY_PR
|
1,565
|
1
|
,211
|
DUMMY_SE
|
,552
|
1
|
,457
|
DUMMY_SU
|
1,586
|
1
|
,208
|
DUMMY_CO
|
,032
|
1
|
,858
|
V28_A
|
,010
|
1
|
,922
|
V29_A
|
,713
|
1
|
,398
|
DUMMY_AC
|
1,975
|
1
|
,160
|
EXPERIEN
|
52,293
|
1
|
,000
|
Etape 3
|
Variables
|
AMOUNT
|
12,187
|
1
|
,000
|
AGE
|
41,479
|
1
|
,000
|
NOOFDEPE
|
1,514
|
1
|
,219
|
CYCLE
|
,072
|
1
|
,788
|
PREVAMOU
|
12,187
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_GS
|
5,805
|
1
|
,016
|
DUMMY_SO
|
1,360
|
1
|
,244
|
DUMMY_FO
|
1,300
|
1
|
,254
|
DUMMY_TA
|
,633
|
1
|
,426
|
DUMMY_EL
|
,348
|
1
|
,555
|
DUMMY_HO
|
25,421
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_MA
|
47,495
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_VE
|
,073
|
1
|
,787
|
DUMMY_DI
|
,531
|
1
|
,466
|
DUMMY_LI
|
1,157
|
1
|
,282
|
DUMMY_PR
|
,946
|
1
|
,331
|
DUMMY_SE
|
,000
|
1
|
,999
|
DUMMY_SU
|
,771
|
1
|
,380
|
DUMMY_CO
|
,305
|
1
|
,581
|
V28_A
|
,092
|
1
|
,762
|
V29_A
|
2,173
|
1
|
,140
|
DUMMY_AC
|
2,656
|
1
|
,103
|
EXPERIEN
|
30,655
|
1
|
,000
|
Etape 4
|
Variables
|
AMOUNT
|
12,053
|
1
|
,001
|
AGE
|
19,892
|
1
|
,000
|
NOOFDEPE
|
1,249
|
1
|
,264
|
CYCLE
|
,002
|
1
|
,964
|
PREVAMOU
|
12,053
|
1
|
,001
|
DUMMY_GS
|
6,748
|
1
|
,009
|
DUMMY_SO
|
1,123
|
1
|
,289
|
DUMMY_FO
|
1,322
|
1
|
,250
|
DUMMY_TA
|
1,437
|
1
|
,231
|
DUMMY_EL
|
,518
|
1
|
,472
|
DUMMY_HO
|
20,073
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_VE
|
4,370
|
1
|
,037
|
DUMMY_DI
|
2,589
|
1
|
,108
|
DUMMY_LI
|
2,290
|
1
|
,130
|
DUMMY_PR
|
,469
|
1
|
,494
|
DUMMY_SE
|
,516
|
1
|
,472
|
DUMMY_SU
|
1,373
|
1
|
,241
|
DUMMY_CO
|
,103
|
1
|
,749
|
V28_A
|
,008
|
1
|
,930
|
V29_A
|
,693
|
1
|
,405
|
DUMMY_AC
|
2,952
|
1
|
,086
|
EXPERIEN
|
32,499
|
1
|
,000
|
Etape 5
|
Variables
|
AMOUNT
|
18,846
|
1
|
,000
|
AGE
|
23,624
|
1
|
,000
|
NOOFDEPE
|
1,728
|
1
|
,189
|
CYCLE
|
1,875
|
1
|
,171
|
PREVAMOU
|
18,846
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_GS
|
5,468
|
1
|
,019
|
DUMMY_SO
|
,370
|
1
|
,543
|
DUMMY_FO
|
1,429
|
1
|
,232
|
DUMMY_TA
|
1,700
|
1
|
,192
|
DUMMY_EL
|
1,071
|
1
|
,301
|
DUMMY_HO
|
23,429
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_VE
|
4,037
|
1
|
,045
|
DUMMY_DI
|
3,030
|
1
|
,082
|
DUMMY_LI
|
1,818
|
1
|
,177
|
DUMMY_PR
|
,514
|
1
|
,473
|
DUMMY_SE
|
,249
|
1
|
,618
|
DUMMY_SU
|
1,563
|
1
|
,211
|
DUMMY_CO
|
,244
|
1
|
,622
|
V28_A
|
,050
|
1
|
,823
|
V29_A
|
,707
|
1
|
,400
|
DUMMY_AC
|
6,217
|
1
|
,013
|
Etape 6
|
Variables
|
AMOUNT
|
16,385
|
1
|
,000
|
NOOFDEPE
|
,832
|
1
|
,362
|
CYCLE
|
,557
|
1
|
,455
|
PREVAMOU
|
16,385
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_GS
|
5,170
|
1
|
,023
|
DUMMY_SO
|
,572
|
1
|
,450
|
DUMMY_FO
|
1,335
|
1
|
,248
|
DUMMY_TA
|
1,278
|
1
|
,258
|
DUMMY_EL
|
,669
|
1
|
,413
|
DUMMY_HO
|
21,068
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_VE
|
1,599
|
1
|
,206
|
DUMMY_DI
|
,013
|
1
|
,909
|
DUMMY_LI
|
2,063
|
1
|
,151
|
DUMMY_PR
|
,085
|
1
|
,771
|
DUMMY_SE
|
1,433
|
1
|
,231
|
DUMMY_SU
|
2,141
|
1
|
,143
|
DUMMY_CO
|
,001
|
1
|
,977
|
V28_A
|
,073
|
1
|
,788
|
V29_A
|
,137
|
1
|
,711
|
DUMMY_AC
|
5,528
|
1
|
,019
|
Etape 7
|
Variables
|
AMOUNT
|
18,511
|
1
|
,000
|
NOOFDEPE
|
,545
|
1
|
,460
|
CYCLE
|
,268
|
1
|
,604
|
PREVAMOU
|
18,511
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_GS
|
3,059
|
1
|
,080
|
DUMMY_SO
|
,344
|
1
|
,557
|
DUMMY_FO
|
1,721
|
1
|
,190
|
DUMMY_TA
|
,559
|
1
|
,455
|
DUMMY_EL
|
,456
|
1
|
,499
|
DUMMY_VE
|
,803
|
1
|
,370
|
DUMMY_DI
|
,388
|
1
|
,533
|
DUMMY_LI
|
2,318
|
1
|
,128
|
DUMMY_PR
|
,255
|
1
|
,613
|
DUMMY_SE
|
2,235
|
1
|
,135
|
DUMMY_SU
|
2,352
|
1
|
,125
|
DUMMY_CO
|
,018
|
1
|
,894
|
V28_A
|
,002
|
1
|
,963
|
V29_A
|
,022
|
1
|
,882
|
DUMMY_AC
|
5,213
|
1
|
,022
|
Etape 8
|
Variables
|
NOOFDEPE
|
,430
|
1
|
,512
|
CYCLE
|
10,839
|
1
|
,001
|
PREVAMOU
|
,000
|
1
|
1,000
|
DUMMY_GS
|
4,972
|
1
|
,026
|
DUMMY_SO
|
6,116
|
1
|
,013
|
DUMMY_FO
|
,314
|
1
|
,575
|
DUMMY_TA
|
,295
|
1
|
,587
|
DUMMY_EL
|
,173
|
1
|
,677
|
DUMMY_VE
|
,736
|
1
|
,391
|
DUMMY_DI
|
,241
|
1
|
,623
|
DUMMY_LI
|
1,065
|
1
|
,302
|
DUMMY_PR
|
,035
|
1
|
,851
|
DUMMY_SE
|
1,971
|
1
|
,160
|
DUMMY_SU
|
2,179
|
1
|
,140
|
DUMMY_CO
|
,257
|
1
|
,612
|
V28_A
|
,056
|
1
|
,813
|
V29_A
|
,024
|
1
|
,877
|
DUMMY_AC
|
4,557
|
1
|
,033
|
Etape 9
|
Variables
|
NOOFDEPE
|
,658
|
1
|
,417
|
PREVAMOU
|
,000
|
1
|
1,000
|
DUMMY_GS
|
4,116
|
1
|
,042
|
DUMMY_SO
|
4,895
|
1
|
,027
|
DUMMY_FO
|
,460
|
1
|
,498
|
DUMMY_TA
|
,299
|
1
|
,584
|
DUMMY_EL
|
,252
|
1
|
,615
|
DUMMY_VE
|
,715
|
1
|
,398
|
DUMMY_DI
|
,331
|
1
|
,565
|
DUMMY_LI
|
1,680
|
1
|
,195
|
DUMMY_PR
|
,107
|
1
|
,744
|
DUMMY_SE
|
1,559
|
1
|
,212
|
DUMMY_SU
|
1,919
|
1
|
,166
|
DUMMY_CO
|
,198
|
1
|
,657
|
V28_A
|
,112
|
1
|
,738
|
V29_A
|
,000
|
1
|
,989
|
DUMMY_AC
|
4,758
|
1
|
,029
|
Etape 10
|
Variables
|
NOOFDEPE
|
,632
|
1
|
,426
|
PREVAMOU
|
12693,622
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_GS
|
1,144
|
1
|
,285
|
DUMMY_FO
|
,034
|
1
|
,854
|
DUMMY_TA
|
,067
|
1
|
,796
|
DUMMY_EL
|
,235
|
1
|
,628
|
DUMMY_VE
|
,677
|
1
|
,411
|
DUMMY_DI
|
,329
|
1
|
,566
|
DUMMY_LI
|
1,662
|
1
|
,197
|
DUMMY_PR
|
,096
|
1
|
,756
|
DUMMY_SE
|
1,649
|
1
|
,199
|
DUMMY_SU
|
1,978
|
1
|
,160
|
DUMMY_CO
|
,219
|
1
|
,640
|
V28_A
|
,083
|
1
|
,773
|
V29_A
|
,007
|
1
|
,932
|
DUMMY_AC
|
4,512
|
1
|
,034
|
Etape 11
|
Variables
|
NOOFDEPE
|
30,767
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_GS
|
12,337
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_FO
|
,854
|
1
|
,356
|
DUMMY_TA
|
,494
|
1
|
,482
|
DUMMY_EL
|
,009
|
1
|
,923
|
DUMMY_VE
|
1,756
|
1
|
,185
|
DUMMY_DI
|
,009
|
1
|
,925
|
DUMMY_LI
|
,338
|
1
|
,561
|
DUMMY_PR
|
24,087
|
1
|
,000
|
DUMMY_SE
|
5,101
|
1
|
,024
|
DUMMY_SU
|
3,015
|
1
|
,083
|
DUMMY_CO
|
13,302
|
1
|
,000
|
V28_A
|
2,049
|
1
|
,152
|
V29_A
|
1,888
|
1
|
,169
|
DUMMY_AC
|
2,410
|
1
|
,121
|
Statistiques globales
|
1173,406
|
15
|
,000
|
a Les khi-deux résiduels ne sont pas calculés du
fait de la présence de redondances.
|
Matrice de corrélation
|
|
Constante
|
DUMMY_FA
|
NUMOF
|
PASGM
|
DUM_MA
|
EXPERIEN
|
AGE
|
DUM_HO
|
AMOU
|
CYC
|
DUM_SO
|
PREVA
|
11
|
Constante
|
1,000
|
-,150
|
-,653
|
,000
|
-,072
|
-,134
|
-,533
|
-,188
|
,000
|
,007
|
-,432
|
,000
|
AMOUNT
|
,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
-1,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
1,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
-1,000
|
NUMBEROF
|
-,653
|
,047
|
1,000
|
,000
|
-,033
|
,069
|
-,044
|
,069
|
,000
|
-,056
|
,497
|
,000
|
AGE
|
-,533
|
,006
|
-,044
|
,000
|
-,334
|
-,040
|
1,000
|
,035
|
,000
|
-,114
|
,002
|
,000
|
CYCLE
|
,007
|
-,048
|
-,056
|
,000
|
,008
|
-,157
|
-,114
|
,119
|
,000
|
1,000
|
-,082
|
,000
|
PREVAMOU
|
,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
1,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
-1,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
1,000
|
PASSAGEM
|
,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
1,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
-1,000
|
,000
|
,000
|
1,000
|
DUMMY_FA
|
-,150
|
1,000
|
,047
|
,000
|
,048
|
-,161
|
,006
|
-,094
|
,000
|
-,048
|
,183
|
,000
|
DUMMY_SO
|
-,432
|
,183
|
,497
|
,000
|
,016
|
-,007
|
,002
|
-,026
|
,000
|
-,082
|
1,000
|
,000
|
DUMMY_HO
|
-,188
|
-,094
|
,069
|
,000
|
,065
|
,052
|
,035
|
1,000
|
,000
|
,119
|
-,026
|
,000
|
DUMMY_MA
|
-,072
|
,048
|
-,033
|
,000
|
1,000
|
-,005
|
-,334
|
,065
|
,000
|
,008
|
,016
|
,000
|
EXPERIEN
|
-,134
|
-,161
|
,069
|
,000
|
-,005
|
1,000
|
-,040
|
,052
|
,000
|
-,157
|
-,007
|
,000
|
Annexe 4
Second modèle
Case Processing Summary
|
Unweighted Casesa
|
N
|
Percent
|
Selected Cases
|
Included in Analysis
|
16019
|
100,0
|
Missing Cases
|
2
|
,0
|
Total
|
16021
|
100,0
|
Unselected Cases
|
0
|
,0
|
Total
|
16021
|
100,0
|
a. If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total
number of cases.
|
Model Summary
|
Step
|
-2 Log likelihood
|
Cox & Snell R Square
|
Nagelkerke R Square
|
1
|
14960,255a
|
,021
|
,033
|
2
|
14895,033b
|
,025
|
,040
|
3
|
14812,557b
|
,030
|
,048
|
4
|
14766,137b
|
,032
|
,053
|
5
|
14733,965b
|
,034
|
,056
|
6
|
14709,173b
|
,036
|
,058
|
7
|
14687,839b
|
,037
|
,060
|
8
|
14668,434b
|
,038
|
,062
|
9
|
14657,570b
|
,039
|
,063
|
10
|
14652,793b
|
,039
|
,064
|
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 4 because parameter
estimates changed by less than ,001.
|
b. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter
estimates changed by less than ,001.
|
Dependent Variable Encoding
|
Original Value
|
Internal Value
|
pas de retard
|
0
|
retard
|
1
|
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
|
|
|
Chi-square
|
df
|
Sig.
|
Step 1
|
Step
|
333,368
|
1
|
,000
|
Block
|
333,368
|
1
|
,000
|
Model
|
333,368
|
1
|
,000
|
Step 2
|
Step
|
65,222
|
1
|
,000
|
Block
|
398,590
|
2
|
,000
|
Model
|
398,590
|
2
|
,000
|
Step 3
|
Step
|
82,477
|
1
|
,000
|
Block
|
481,067
|
3
|
,000
|
Model
|
481,067
|
3
|
,000
|
Step 4
|
Step
|
46,420
|
1
|
,000
|
Block
|
527,486
|
4
|
,000
|
Model
|
527,486
|
4
|
,000
|
Step 5
|
Step
|
32,172
|
1
|
,000
|
Block
|
559,658
|
5
|
,000
|
Model
|
559,658
|
5
|
,000
|
Step 6
|
Step
|
24,792
|
1
|
,000
|
Block
|
584,450
|
6
|
,000
|
Model
|
584,450
|
6
|
,000
|
Step 7
|
Step
|
21,334
|
1
|
,000
|
Block
|
605,784
|
7
|
,000
|
Model
|
605,784
|
7
|
,000
|
Step 8
|
Step
|
19,406
|
1
|
,000
|
Block
|
625,189
|
8
|
,000
|
Model
|
625,189
|
8
|
,000
|
Step 9
|
Step
|
10,864
|
1
|
,001
|
Block
|
636,054
|
9
|
,000
|
Model
|
636,054
|
9
|
,000
|
Step 10
|
Step
|
4,776
|
1
|
,029
|
Block
|
640,830
|
10
|
,000
|
Model
|
640,830
|
10
|
,000
|
Variables in the Equation
|
|
|
B
|
S.E.
|
Wald
|
df
|
Sig.
|
Exp(B)
|
Step 1a
|
dummy_fardi
|
0,74974133
|
0,0413
|
329,098
|
1
|
,000
|
2,116
|
Constant
|
-1,84815554
|
0,0303
|
3729,863
|
1
|
,000
|
,158
|
Step 2b
|
NumberOfpayments
|
0,05954020
|
0,0073
|
66,298
|
1
|
,000
|
1,061
|
dummy_fardi
|
0,65237986
|
0,0429
|
230,987
|
1
|
,000
|
1,920
|
Constant
|
-2,31679752
|
0,0663
|
1222,528
|
1
|
,000
|
,099
|
Step 3c
|
NumberOfpayments
|
0,08236610
|
0,0078
|
111,630
|
1
|
,000
|
1,086
|
PassageMontant
|
-0,00058155
|
0,0001
|
85,575
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
dummy_fardi
|
0,69926444
|
0,0438
|
254,991
|
1
|
,000
|
2,012
|
Constant
|
-2,44833660
|
0,0683
|
1285,761
|
1
|
,000
|
,086
|
Step 4d
|
NumberOfpayments
|
0,08687065
|
0,0078
|
122,979
|
1
|
,000
|
1,091
|
PassageMontant
|
-0,00060840
|
0,0001
|
92,747
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
dummy_fardi
|
0,68136423
|
0,0439
|
240,800
|
1
|
,000
|
1,977
|
dummy_marie
|
-0,31723971
|
0,0460
|
47,517
|
1
|
,000
|
,728
|
Constant
|
-2,24374804
|
0,0739
|
921,644
|
1
|
,000
|
,106
|
Step 5e
|
NumberOfpayments
|
0,08528113
|
0,0078
|
118,716
|
1
|
,000
|
1,089
|
PassageMontant
|
-0,00053588
|
0,0001
|
69,353
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
dummy_fardi
|
0,63018406
|
0,0449
|
197,365
|
1
|
,000
|
1,878
|
dummy_marie
|
-0,32367827
|
0,0461
|
49,322
|
1
|
,000
|
,723
|
experience_AC
|
0,00468083
|
0,0008
|
32,752
|
1
|
,000
|
1,005
|
Constant
|
-2,32632895
|
0,0752
|
955,943
|
1
|
,000
|
,098
|
Step 6f
|
NumberOfpayments
|
0,09013788
|
0,0079
|
130,245
|
1
|
,000
|
1,094
|
Age
|
-0,01041402
|
0,0021
|
24,496
|
1
|
,000
|
,990
|
PassageMontant
|
-0,00057512
|
0,0001
|
78,661
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
dummy_fardi
|
0,63024244
|
0,0449
|
197,097
|
1
|
,000
|
1,878
|
dummy_marie
|
-0,24355634
|
0,0489
|
24,765
|
1
|
,000
|
,784
|
experience_AC
|
0,00497225
|
0,0008
|
36,741
|
1
|
,000
|
1,005
|
Constant
|
-2,03536476
|
0,0949
|
459,902
|
1
|
,000
|
,131
|
Step 7g
|
NumberOfpayments
|
0,09284481
|
0,0079
|
137,631
|
1
|
,000
|
1,097
|
Age
|
-0,00994222
|
0,0021
|
22,154
|
1
|
,000
|
,990
|
PassageMontant
|
-0,00060431
|
0,0001
|
86,804
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
dummy_fardi
|
0,60865830
|
0,0452
|
181,682
|
1
|
,000
|
1,838
|
dummy_homme
|
0,24272651
|
0,0519
|
21,831
|
1
|
,000
|
1,275
|
dummy_marie
|
-0,22834331
|
0,0492
|
21,516
|
1
|
,000
|
,796
|
experience_AC
|
0,00520013
|
0,0008
|
39,942
|
1
|
,000
|
1,005
|
Constant
|
-2,12711975
|
0,0971
|
480,103
|
1
|
,000
|
,119
|
Step 8h
|
Amount
|
-0,00031848
|
0,0001
|
18,333
|
1
|
,000
|
1,000
|
NumberOfpayments
|
0,12028480
|
0,0102
|
139,074
|
1
|
,000
|
1,128
|
Age
|
-0,00930794
|
0,0021
|
19,356
|
1
|
,000
|
,991
|
PassageMontant
|
-0,00057385
|
0,0001
|
74,688
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
dummy_fardi
|
0,64570782
|
0,0460
|
197,434
|
1
|
,000
|
1,907
|
dummy_homme
|
0,25621527
|
0,0521
|
24,211
|
1
|
,000
|
1,292
|
dummy_marie
|
-0,23283146
|
0,0493
|
22,338
|
1
|
,000
|
,792
|
experience_AC
|
0,00575861
|
0,0008
|
47,896
|
1
|
,000
|
1,006
|
Constant
|
-2,24515195
|
0,1014
|
489,894
|
1
|
,000
|
,106
|
Step 9i
|
Amount
|
-0,00053258
|
0,0001
|
28,371
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
NumberOfpayments
|
0,11943081
|
0,0102
|
136,592
|
1
|
,000
|
1,127
|
Age
|
-0,01008881
|
0,0021
|
22,420
|
1
|
,000
|
,990
|
Cycle
|
0,03879033
|
0,0117
|
11,017
|
1
|
,001
|
1,040
|
PassageMontant
|
-0,00033950
|
0,0001
|
12,032
|
1
|
,001
|
1,000
|
dummy_fardi
|
0,64055755
|
0,0460
|
193,867
|
1
|
,000
|
1,898
|
dummy_homme
|
0,27656309
|
0,0524
|
27,822
|
1
|
,000
|
1,319
|
dummy_marie
|
-0,23133905
|
0,0493
|
22,025
|
1
|
,000
|
,793
|
experience_AC
|
0,00531894
|
0,0008
|
39,737
|
1
|
,000
|
1,005
|
Constant
|
-2,25446560
|
0,1014
|
494,522
|
1
|
,000
|
,105
|
Step 10j
|
Amount
|
-0,00058950
|
0,0001
|
32,058
|
1
|
,000
|
,999
|
NumberOfpayments
|
0,13209881
|
0,0118
|
125,750
|
1
|
,000
|
1,141
|
Age
|
-0,01007606
|
0,0021
|
22,352
|
1
|
,000
|
,990
|
Cycle
|
0,03672781
|
0,0117
|
9,801
|
1
|
,002
|
1,037
|
PassageMontant
|
-0,00027807
|
0,0001
|
7,412
|
1
|
,006
|
1,000
|
dummy_fardi
|
0,65894468
|
0,0468
|
198,097
|
1
|
,000
|
1,933
|
dummy_solfa
|
0,29147199
|
0,1323
|
4,853
|
1
|
,028
|
1,338
|
dummy_homme
|
0,27335096
|
0,0525
|
27,151
|
1
|
,000
|
1,314
|
dummy_marie
|
-0,22959808
|
0,0493
|
21,684
|
1
|
,000
|
,795
|
experience_AC
|
0,00530517
|
0,0008
|
39,519
|
1
|
,000
|
1,005
|
Constant
|
-2,35967705
|
0,1123
|
441,124
|
1
|
,000
|
,094
|
Correlation Matrix
|
|
|
Constant
|
NumberOfpayments
|
dummy_fardi
|
PassageMontant
|
dummy_marie
|
experience_AC
|
Age
|
dummy_homme
|
Amount
|
Cycle
|
dummy_solfa
|
Step 10
|
Constant
|
1,000
|
-,657
|
-,154
|
-,125
|
-,070
|
-,134
|
-,531
|
-,187
|
,303
|
,006
|
-,439
|
Amount
|
,303
|
-,516
|
-,165
|
-,566
|
,009
|
-,010
|
,023
|
-,107
|
1,000
|
-,614
|
-,261
|
NumberOfpayments
|
-,657
|
1,000
|
,060
|
,016
|
-,034
|
,069
|
-,043
|
,068
|
-,516
|
-,051
|
,505
|
Age
|
-,531
|
-,043
|
,005
|
,004
|
-,334
|
-,040
|
1,000
|
,035
|
,023
|
-,113
|
,002
|
Cycle
|
,006
|
-,051
|
-,044
|
,678
|
,007
|
-,156
|
-,113
|
,119
|
-,614
|
1,000
|
-,081
|
PassageMontant
|
-,125
|
,016
|
-,060
|
1,000
|
,015
|
,014
|
,004
|
,009
|
-,566
|
,678
|
,280
|
dummy_fardi
|
-,154
|
,060
|
1,000
|
-,060
|
,049
|
-,162
|
,005
|
-,093
|
-,165
|
-,044
|
,187
|
dummy_solfa
|
-,439
|
,505
|
,187
|
,280
|
,015
|
-,006
|
,002
|
-,028
|
-,261
|
-,081
|
1,000
|
dummy_homme
|
-,187
|
,068
|
-,093
|
,009
|
,065
|
,053
|
,035
|
1,000
|
-,107
|
,119
|
-,028
|
dummy_marie
|
-,070
|
-,034
|
,049
|
,015
|
1,000
|
-,004
|
-,334
|
,065
|
,009
|
,007
|
,015
|
experience_AC
|
-,134
|
,069
|
-,162
|
,014
|
-,004
|
1,000
|
-,040
|
,053
|
-,010
|
-,156
|
-,006
|
Classification Tablea
|
|
Observed
|
Predicted
|
|
dummy du retard
|
Percentage Correct
|
|
pas de retard
|
retard
|
Step 1
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13072
|
0
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2947
|
0
|
,0
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 2
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13072
|
0
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2947
|
0
|
,0
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 3
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13068
|
4
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2945
|
2
|
,1
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 4
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13068
|
4
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2943
|
4
|
,1
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 5
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13068
|
4
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2943
|
4
|
,1
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 6
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13065
|
7
|
99,9
|
retard
|
2943
|
4
|
,1
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 7
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13062
|
10
|
99,9
|
retard
|
2942
|
5
|
,2
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 8
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13065
|
7
|
99,9
|
retard
|
2941
|
6
|
,2
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 9
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13066
|
6
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2940
|
7
|
,2
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 10
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13068
|
4
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2940
|
7
|
,2
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
a. The cut value is ,500
|
Classification Table
|
|
Observed
|
Predicted
|
|
dummy du retard
|
Percentage Correct
|
|
pas retard
|
retard
|
Step 1
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13072
|
0
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2947
|
0
|
,0
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 2
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13072
|
0
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2947
|
0
|
,0
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 3
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13068
|
4
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2945
|
2
|
,1
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 4
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13068
|
4
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2944
|
3
|
,1
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 5
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13069
|
3
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2943
|
4
|
,1
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 6
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13067
|
5
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2943
|
4
|
,1
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 7
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13064
|
8
|
99,9
|
retard
|
2942
|
5
|
,2
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 8
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13065
|
7
|
99,9
|
retard
|
2943
|
4
|
,1
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 9
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13067
|
5
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2942
|
5
|
,2
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 10
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13068
|
4
|
100,0
|
retard
|
2941
|
6
|
,2
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
a. The cut value is ,510
|
Classification Tablea
|
|
Observed
|
Predicted
|
|
dummy du retard
|
Percentage Correct
|
|
|
retard
|
2943
|
4
|
,1
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 6
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13063
|
9
|
99,9
|
retard
|
2942
|
5
|
,2
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 7
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13061
|
11
|
99,9
|
retard
|
2942
|
5
|
,2
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 8
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13063
|
9
|
99,9
|
retard
|
2941
|
6
|
,2
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 9
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13064
|
8
|
99,9
|
retard
|
2939
|
8
|
,3
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
Step 10
|
dummy du retard
|
pas de retard
|
13065
|
7
|
99,9
|
retard
|
2940
|
7
|
,2
|
Overall Percentage
|
|
|
81,6
|
a. The cut value is ,490
|
|
|