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la gestion des risques de crédit en microfinance par le crédit scoring

( Télécharger le fichier original )
par MERIAM BELGHITH
IHEC Carthage - mastère en finance 2008
  

précédent sommaire suivant

Bitcoin is a swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growing ever smarter, faster, and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy

Annexes

Annexe 1

Le conseil d'administration d'Enda Inter-Arabe

Mohsen Boujbel   Homme d'affaires.
   Ancien Secrétaire d'Etat à l'Agriculture. Jameleddine Chichti   Professeur d'économie à l'Université de Tunis.
   Ancien Conseiller du Président de la République. Nebiha Gueddana   Directrice générale de l'Office National de la Famille et de la Population.
   Ancienne Secrétaire d'Etat aux Affaires Sociales. Moncef Zaafrane   Banquier.
   Ancien Ministre. Chedli Ounis   Consultant auprès de différentes sociétés tunisiennes.
   Ancien Banquier (Arab Tunisian Bank et Banque Centrale de Tunisie). Selma Bellagha   Directeur général de Alternative Capital Partners, société tunisienne de gestion de fonds.



   

 
 

Annexe 2

Descriptive Statistics

 

N

Minimum

Maximum

Mean

Std. Deviation

age du client

16019

14

79

38,00

10,648

montant du pret

16021

100

5000

542,04

408,043

nombre de mensualité

16021

1

36

8,41

2,904

taille du menage (excepte le client)

15995

0

90

4,16

2,655

nombre de prets reçus

16021

1

35

3,40

3,087

montant precedent

16021

,00

5000,00

387,0358

432,35573

passage en montant

16021

-4500,00

5000,00

155,0091

344,41011

dummy du retard (retard=1)

16021

0

1

,18

,387

annee d'octroi du pret

16021

2005

2008

2006,90

1,028

annee de cloture du pret

11410

2005,00

2008,00

2007,0700

,92259

dummy du groupe solidaire

16021

,00

1,00

,4432

,49678

dummy du produit individuel

16021

,00

1,00

,4201

,49360

dummy du produit solfa

16021

,00

1,00

,0600

,23746

dummy du produit forsa

16021

,00

1,00

,0039

,06259

dummy du produit taalim

16021

,00

1,00

,0544

,22675

dummy du produit elevage

16021

,00

1,00

,0760

,26505

dummy genre (homme=1)

16021

,00

1,00

,1875

,39033

dummy marie

16021

,00

1,00

,7461

,43526

dummy veuf

16021

,00

1,00

,0248

,15546

dummy_divorce

16021

,00

1,00

,0361

,18649

dummy sait lire (client)

16021

,00

1,00

,0805

,27201

dummy études primaires

16021

,00

1,00

,6630

,47270

dummy études secondaires

16021

,00

1,00

,0840

,27742

dummy études supérieures

16021

,00

1,00

,0086

,09208

dummy activite commerce

16021

,00

1,00

,6103

,48771

dummy activite production

16021

,00

1,00

,1476

,35467

dummy activite service

16021

,00

1,00

,1197

,32457

dummy agent de credit homme (=1)

16021

,00

1,00

,5940

,49109

experience de l'agent de credit (negatif si passation)

16021

-19,00

123,00

22,9120

24,49068

Valid N (listwise)

11387

 
 
 
 

montant du pret * dummy du retard (retard=1) Crosstabulation

 
 
 

dummy du retard (retard=1)

Total

 
 
 

pas de retard

retard

montant du pret

100

Count

61

9

70

% within montant du pret

87,1%

12,9%

100,0%

150

Count

448

50

498

% within montant du pret

90,0%

10,0%

100,0%

200

Count

2445

368

2813

% within montant du pret

86,9%

13,1%

100,0%

300

Count

2231

389

2620

% within montant du pret

85,2%

14,8%

100,0%

400

Count

1799

425

2224

% within montant du pret

80,9%

19,1%

100,0%

500

Count

1809

485

2294

% within montant du pret

78,9%

21,1%

100,0%

600

Count

925

232

1157

% within montant du pret

79,9%

20,1%

100,0%

700

Count

675

215

890

% within montant du pret

75,8%

24,2%

100,0%

800

Count

869

266

1135

% within montant du pret

76,6%

23,4%

100,0%

1000

Count

915

254

1169

% within montant du pret

78,3%

21,7%

100,0%

1200

Count

416

129

545

% within montant du pret

76,3%

23,7%

100,0%

1500

Count

236

64

300

% within montant du pret

78,7%

21,3%

100,0%

1700

Count

65

16

81

% within montant du pret

80,2%

19,8%

100,0%

2000

Count

81

25

106

% within montant du pret

76,4%

23,6%

100,0%

2200

Count

7

1

8

% within montant du pret

87,5%

12,5%

100,0%

2500

Count

36

5

41

% within montant du pret

87,8%

12,2%

100,0%

2700

Count

1

0

1

% within montant du pret

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

3000

Count

30

7

37

% within montant du pret

81,1%

18,9%

100,0%

3500

Count

6

1

7

% within montant du pret

85,7%

14,3%

100,0%

4000

Count

9

3

12

% within montant du pret

75,0%

25,0%

100,0%

4500

Count

2

2

4

% within montant du pret

50,0%

50,0%

100,0%

5000

Count

8

1

9

% within montant du pret

88,9%

11,1%

100,0%

Total

Count

13074

2947

16021

% within montant du pret

81,6%

18,4%

100,0%

nombre de mensualité * dummy du retard (retard=1) Crosstabulation

 
 
 

dummy du retard

Total

 
 
 

pas de retard

retard

nombre de mensualité

1

Count

18

0

18

% within nombre de mensualité

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

2

Count

250

35

285

% within nombre de mensualité

87,7%

12,3%

100,0%

3

Count

569

104

673

% within nombre de mensualité

84,5%

15,5%

100,0%

4

Count

185

10

195

% within nombre de mensualité

94,9%

5,1%

100,0%

5

Count

5

1

6

% within nombre de mensualité

83,3%

16,7%

100,0%

6

Count

3832

601

4433

% within nombre de mensualité

86,4%

13,6%

100,0%

7

Count

1

0

1

% within nombre de mensualité

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

8

Count

2958

617

3575

% within nombre de mensualité

82,7%

17,3%

100,0%

9

Count

3

1

4

% within nombre de mensualité

75,0%

25,0%

100,0%

10

Count

2798

798

3596

% within nombre de mensualité

77,8%

22,2%

100,0%

12

Count

2323

745

3068

% within nombre de mensualité

75,7%

24,3%

100,0%

14

Count

1

0

1

% within nombre de mensualité

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

15

Count

9

0

9

% within nombre de mensualité

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

16

Count

6

1

7

% within nombre de mensualité

85,7%

14,3%

100,0%

18

Count

81

24

105

% within nombre de mensualité

77,1%

22,9%

100,0%

20

Count

1

0

1

% within nombre de mensualité

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

22

Count

1

0

1

% within nombre de mensualité

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

24

Count

32

6

38

% within nombre de mensualité

84,2%

15,8%

100,0%

36

Count

1

4

5

% within nombre de mensualité

20,0%

80,0%

100,0%

Total

Count

13074

2947

16021

% within nombre de mensualité

81,6%

18,4%

100,0%

age du client * dummy du retard (retard=1) Crosstabulation

 
 
 

dummy du retard (retard=1)

Total

 
 
 

pas de retard

retard

age du client

14

Count

3

2

5

% within age du client

60,0%

40,0%

100,0%

15

Count

6

2

8

% within age du client

75,0%

25,0%

100,0%

16

Count

28

8

36

% within age du client

77,8%

22,2%

100,0%

17

Count

44

16

60

% within age du client

73,3%

26,7%

100,0%

18

Count

97

15

112

% within age du client

86,6%

13,4%

100,0%

19

Count

132

28

160

% within age du client

82,5%

17,5%

100,0%

20

Count

143

45

188

% within age du client

76,1%

23,9%

100,0%

21

Count

224

59

283

% within age du client

79,2%

20,8%

100,0%

22

Count

240

45

285

% within age du client

84,2%

15,8%

100,0%

23

Count

267

76

343

% within age du client

77,8%

22,2%

100,0%

24

Count

242

102

344

% within age du client

70,3%

29,7%

100,0%

25

Count

301

89

390

% within age du client

77,2%

22,8%

100,0%

26

Count

308

80

388

% within age du client

79,4%

20,6%

100,0%

27

Count

338

97

435

% within age du client

77,7%

22,3%

100,0%

28

Count

362

85

447

% within age du client

81,0%

19,0%

100,0%

29

Count

335

111

446

% within age du client

75,1%

24,9%

100,0%

30

Count

391

59

450

% within age du client

86,9%

13,1%

100,0%

31

Count

409

88

497

% within age du client

82,3%

17,7%

100,0%

32

Count

388

85

473

% within age du client

82,0%

18,0%

100,0%

33

Count

355

87

442

% within age du client

80,3%

19,7%

100,0%

34

Count

373

95

468

% within age du client

79,7%

20,3%

100,0%

35

Count

398

81

479

% within age du client

83,1%

16,9%

100,0%

36

Count

417

85

502

% within age du client

83,1%

16,9%

100,0%

37

Count

390

111

501

% within age du client

77,8%

22,2%

100,0%

38

Count

489

88

577

% within age du client

84,7%

15,3%

100,0%

39

Count

454

93

547

% within age du client

83,0%

17,0%

100,0%

40

Count

459

84

543

% within age du client

84,5%

15,5%

100,0%

41

Count

465

92

557

% within age du client

83,5%

16,5%

100,0%

42

Count

431

76

507

% within age du client

85,0%

15,0%

100,0%

43

Count

433

103

536

% within age du client

80,8%

19,2%

100,0%

44

Count

398

83

481

% within age du client

82,7%

17,3%

100,0%

45

Count

416

75

491

% within age du client

84,7%

15,3%

100,0%

46

Count

353

68

421

% within age du client

83,8%

16,2%

100,0%

47

Count

367

77

444

% within age du client

82,7%

17,3%

100,0%

48

Count

319

78

397

% within age du client

80,4%

19,6%

100,0%

49

Count

320

76

396

% within age du client

80,8%

19,2%

100,0%

50

Count

290

57

347

% within age du client

83,6%

16,4%

100,0%

51

Count

263

51

314

% within age du client

83,8%

16,2%

100,0%

52

Count

211

35

246

% within age du client

85,8%

14,2%

100,0%

53

Count

231

38

269

% within age du client

85,9%

14,1%

100,0%

54

Count

154

31

185

% within age du client

83,2%

16,8%

100,0%

55

Count

122

25

147

% within age du client

83,0%

17,0%

100,0%

56

Count

140

32

172

% within age du client

81,4%

18,6%

100,0%

57

Count

104

18

122

% within age du client

85,2%

14,8%

100,0%

58

Count

96

25

121

% within age du client

79,3%

20,7%

100,0%

59

Count

79

24

103

% within age du client

76,7%

23,3%

100,0%

60

Count

63

12

75

% within age du client

84,0%

16,0%

100,0%

61

Count

39

12

51

% within age du client

76,5%

23,5%

100,0%

62

Count

48

5

53

% within age du client

90,6%

9,4%

100,0%

63

Count

32

5

37

% within age du client

86,5%

13,5%

100,0%

64

Count

28

9

37

% within age du client

75,7%

24,3%

100,0%

65

Count

22

6

28

% within age du client

78,6%

21,4%

100,0%

66

Count

6

3

9

% within age du client

66,7%

33,3%

100,0%

67

Count

10

5

15

% within age du client

66,7%

33,3%

100,0%

68

Count

17

3

20

% within age du client

85,0%

15,0%

100,0%

69

Count

4

2

6

% within age du client

66,7%

33,3%

100,0%

71

Count

3

0

3

% within age du client

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

72

Count

5

1

6

% within age du client

83,3%

16,7%

100,0%

73

Count

4

1

5

% within age du client

80,0%

20,0%

100,0%

74

Count

2

0

2

% within age du client

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

75

Count

1

0

1

% within age du client

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

76

Count

2

1

3

% within age du client

66,7%

33,3%

100,0%

77

Count

1

1

2

% within age du client

50,0%

50,0%

100,0%

79

Count

0

1

1

% within age du client

,0%

100,0%

100,0%

Total

Count

13072

2947

16019

% within age du client

81,6%

18,4%

100,0%

nombre de prets reçus * dummy du retard (retard=1) Crosstabulation

 
 
 

dummy du retard (retard=1)

Total

 
 
 

pas de retard

retard

nombre de prets reçus

1

Count

4443

684

5127

% within nombre de prets reçus

86,7%

13,3%

100,0%

2

Count

2802

578

3380

% within nombre de prets reçus

82,9%

17,1%

100,0%

3

Count

1721

444

2165

% within nombre de prets reçus

79,5%

20,5%

100,0%

4

Count

1152

339

1491

% within nombre de prets reçus

77,3%

22,7%

100,0%

5

Count

743

222

965

% within nombre de prets reçus

77,0%

23,0%

100,0%

6

Count

561

193

754

% within nombre de prets reçus

74,4%

25,6%

100,0%

7

Count

449

123

572

% within nombre de prets reçus

78,5%

21,5%

100,0%

8

Count

343

100

443

% within nombre de prets reçus

77,4%

22,6%

100,0%

9

Count

231

72

303

% within nombre de prets reçus

76,2%

23,8%

100,0%

10

Count

174

57

231

% within nombre de prets reçus

75,3%

24,7%

100,0%

11

Count

124

31

155

% within nombre de prets reçus

80,0%

20,0%

100,0%

12

Count

93

30

123

% within nombre de prets reçus

75,6%

24,4%

100,0%

13

Count

59

18

77

% within nombre de prets reçus

76,6%

23,4%

100,0%

14

Count

45

15

60

% within nombre de prets reçus

75,0%

25,0%

100,0%

15

Count

27

14

41

% within nombre de prets reçus

65,9%

34,1%

100,0%

16

Count

31

4

35

% within nombre de prets reçus

88,6%

11,4%

100,0%

17

Count

23

7

30

% within nombre de prets reçus

76,7%

23,3%

100,0%

18

Count

13

6

19

% within nombre de prets reçus

68,4%

31,6%

100,0%

19

Count

13

2

15

% within nombre de prets reçus

86,7%

13,3%

100,0%

20

Count

3

3

6

% within nombre de prets reçus

50,0%

50,0%

100,0%

21

Count

3

1

4

% within nombre de prets reçus

75,0%

25,0%

100,0%

22

Count

5

0

5

% within nombre de prets reçus

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

23

Count

3

1

4

% within nombre de prets reçus

75,0%

25,0%

100,0%

24

Count

1

0

1

% within nombre de prets reçus

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

25

Count

3

1

4

% within nombre de prets reçus

75,0%

25,0%

100,0%

26

Count

1

0

1

% within nombre de prets reçus

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

27

Count

5

0

5

% within nombre de prets reçus

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

28

Count

1

1

2

% within nombre de prets reçus

50,0%

50,0%

100,0%

30

Count

1

0

1

% within nombre de prets reçus

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

33

Count

0

1

1

% within nombre de prets reçus

,0%

100,0%

100,0%

35

Count

1

0

1

% within nombre de prets reçus

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

Total

Count

13074

2947

16021

% within nombre de prets reçus

81,6%

18,4%

100,0%

montant precedent * dummy du retard (retard=1) Crosstabulation

 
 
 

dummy du retard (retard=1)

Total

 
 
 

pas de retard

retard

montant precedent

,00

Count

4443

684

5127

% within montant precedent

86,7%

13,3%

100,0%

100,00

Count

32

2

34

% within montant precedent

94,1%

5,9%

100,0%

150,00

Count

379

59

438

% within montant precedent

86,5%

13,5%

100,0%

200,00

Count

1500

306

1806

% within montant precedent

83,1%

16,9%

100,0%

300,00

Count

1141

304

1445

% within montant precedent

79,0%

21,0%

100,0%

400,00

Count

1153

301

1454

% within montant precedent

79,3%

20,7%

100,0%

500,00

Count

991

343

1334

% within montant precedent

74,3%

25,7%

100,0%

600,00

Count

750

226

976

% within montant precedent

76,8%

23,2%

100,0%

700,00

Count

571

143

714

% within montant precedent

80,0%

20,0%

100,0%

800,00

Count

699

178

877

% within montant precedent

79,7%

20,3%

100,0%

1000,00

Count

722

202

924

% within montant precedent

78,1%

21,9%

100,0%

1200,00

Count

351

105

456

% within montant precedent

77,0%

23,0%

100,0%

1500,00

Count

175

53

228

% within montant precedent

76,8%

23,2%

100,0%

1700,00

Count

37

10

47

% within montant precedent

78,7%

21,3%

100,0%

2000,00

Count

64

15

79

% within montant precedent

81,0%

19,0%

100,0%

2200,00

Count

7

3

10

% within montant precedent

70,0%

30,0%

100,0%

2500,00

Count

20

3

23

% within montant precedent

87,0%

13,0%

100,0%

2700,00

Count

1

0

1

% within montant precedent

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

3000,00

Count

19

6

25

% within montant precedent

76,0%

24,0%

100,0%

3500,00

Count

9

0

9

% within montant precedent

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

4000,00

Count

7

1

8

% within montant precedent

87,5%

12,5%

100,0%

4500,00

Count

1

0

1

% within montant precedent

100,0%

,0%

100,0%

5000,00

Count

2

3

5

% within montant precedent

40,0%

60,0%

100,0%

Total

Count

13074

2947

16021

% within montant precedent

81,6%

18,4%

100,0%

dummy genre (homme=1) * dummy du retard (retard=1) Crosstabulation

 
 
 

dummy du retard (retard=1)

Total

 
 
 

pas de retard

retard

dummy genre (homme=1)

,00

Count

10728

2289

13017

% within dummy genre (homme=1)

82,4%

17,6%

100,0%

1,00

Count

2346

658

3004

% within dummy genre (homme=1)

78,1%

21,9%

100,0%

Total

Count

13074

2947

16021

% within dummy genre (homme=1)

81,6%

18,4%

100,0%

dummy agent de credit homme (=1) * dummy du retard (retard=1) Crosstabulation

 
 
 

dummy du retard (retard=1)

Total

 
 
 

pas de retard

retard

dummy agent de credit homme (=1)

,00

Count

5353

1151

6504

% within dummy agent de credit homme (=1)

82,3%

17,7%

100,0%

1,00

Count

7721

1796

9517

% within dummy agent de credit homme (=1)

81,1%

18,9%

100,0%

Total

Count

13074

2947

16021

% within dummy agent de credit homme (=1)

81,6%

18,4%

100,0%

Annexe 3

PREMIER MODELE

Variables dans l'équation

 

B

E.S.

Wald

ddl

Signif.

Exp(B)

Etape 1(a)

DUMMY_FA

,750

,041

328,855

1

,000

2,117

Constante

-1,848

,030

3726,543

1

,000

,158

Etape 2(b)

NUMBEROF

,059

,007

65,324

1

,000

1,061

DUMMY_FA

,653

,043

231,226

1

,000

1,922

Constante

-2,314

,066

1217,880

1

,000

,099

Etape 3(c)

NUMBEROF

,082

,008

110,552

1

,000

1,085

PASSAGEM

-,001

,000

85,992

1

,000

,999

DUMMY_FA

,700

,044

255,382

1

,000

2,015

Constante

-2,446

,068

1281,270

1

,000

,087

Etape 4(d)

NUMBEROF

,087

,008

121,798

1

,000

1,090

PASSAGEM

-,001

,000

93,163

1

,000

,999

DUMMY_FA

,683

,044

241,264

1

,000

1,979

DUMMY_MA

-,317

,046

47,260

1

,000

,728

Constante

-2,241

,074

917,829

1

,000

,106

Etape 5(e)

NUMBEROF

,085

,008

117,533

1

,000

1,089

PASSAGEM

-,001

,000

69,778

1

,000

,999

DUMMY_FA

,632

,045

198,255

1

,000

1,881

DUMMY_MA

-,323

,046

49,102

1

,000

,724

EXPERIEN

,005

,001

32,385

1

,000

1,005

Constante

-2,323

,075

951,761

1

,000

,098

Etape 6(f)

NUMBEROF

,090

,008

128,755

1

,000

1,094

AGE

-,010

,002

23,577

1

,000

,990

PASSAGEM

-,001

,000

78,860

1

,000

,999

DUMMY_FA

,632

,045

197,876

1

,000

1,881

DUMMY_MA

-,244

,049

24,851

1

,000

,783

EXPERIEN

,005

,001

36,259

1

,000

1,005

Constante

-2,037

,095

459,955

1

,000

,130

Etape 7(g)

NUMBEROF

,092

,008

135,976

1

,000

1,097

AGE

-,010

,002

21,354

1

,000

,990

PASSAGEM

-,001

,000

86,821

1

,000

,999

DUMMY_FA

,611

,045

182,648

1

,000

1,842

DUMMY_HO

,238

,052

21,008

1

,000

1,269

DUMMY_MA

-,229

,049

21,635

1

,000

,795

EXPERIEN

,005

,001

39,392

1

,000

1,005

Constante

-2,127

,097

479,426

1

,000

,119

Etape 8(h)

AMOUNT

,000

,000

18,492

1

,000

1,000

NUMBEROF

,120

,010

138,062

1

,000

1,127

AGE

-,009

,002

18,619

1

,000

,991

PASSAGEM

-,001

,000

74,684

1

,000

,999

DUMMY_FA

,648

,046

198,546

1

,000

1,912

DUMMY_HO

,252

,052

23,375

1

,000

1,287

DUMMY_MA

-,234

,049

22,452

1

,000

,792

EXPERIEN

,006

,001

47,369

1

,000

1,006

Constante

-2,246

,102

489,472

1

,000

,106

Etape 9(i)

AMOUNT

-,001

,000

28,286

1

,000

,999

NUMBEROF

,119

,010

135,638

1

,000

1,126

AGE

-,010

,002

21,582

1

,000

,990

CYCLE

,038

,012

10,787

1

,001

1,039

PASSAGEM

,000

,000

12,200

1

,000

1,000

DUMMY_FA

,643

,046

195,017

1

,000

1,902

DUMMY_HO

,272

,053

26,903

1

,000

1,313

DUMMY_MA

-,232

,049

22,145

1

,000

,793

EXPERIEN

,005

,001

39,331

1

,000

1,005

Constante

-2,255

,101

494,098

1

,000

,105

Etape 10(j)

AMOUNT

-,001

,000

31,989

1

,000

,999

NUMBEROF

,132

,012

125,016

1

,000

1,141

AGE

-,010

,002

21,522

1

,000

,990

CYCLE

,036

,012

9,583

1

,002

1,037

PASSAGEM

,000

,000

7,523

1

,006

1,000

DUMMY_FA

,661

,047

199,282

1

,000

1,937

DUMMY_SO

,293

,132

4,884

1

,027

1,340

DUMMY_HO

,269

,053

26,247

1

,000

1,309

DUMMY_MA

-,231

,049

21,798

1

,000

,794

EXPERIEN

,005

,001

39,130

1

,000

1,005

Constante

-2,361

,112

440,884

1

,000

,094

Etape 11(k)

AMOUNT

1,25E+12

322,625

1,51E+19

1

,000

,

NUMBEROF

,131

,011

131,752

1

,000

1,140

AGE

-,010

,002

21,831

1

,000

,990

CYCLE

,042

,011

13,411

1

,000

1,043

PREVAMOU

-1,25E+12

322,625

1,51E+19

1

,000

,000

PASSAGEM

-1,25E+12

322,625

1,51E+19

1

,000

,000

DUMMY_FA

,671

,046

212,722

1

,000

1,956

DUMMY_SO

,299

,130

5,280

1

,022

1,348

DUMMY_HO

,265

,052

26,260

1

,000

1,304

DUMMY_MA

-,233

,049

22,990

1

,000

,792

EXPERIEN

,005

,001

40,447

1

,000

1,005

Constante

-2,377

,110

464,541

1

,000

,093

a Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 1: DUMMY_FA.

b Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 2: NUMBEROF.

c Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 3: PASSAGEM.

d Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 4: DUMMY_MA.

e Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 5: EXPERIEN.

f Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 6: AGE.

g Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 7: DUMMY_HO.

h Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 8: AMOUNT.

i Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 9: CYCLE.

j Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 10: DUMMY_SO.

k Variable(s) entrées à l'étape 11: PREVAMOU.

Variables hors de l'équation

Score

ddl

Signif.

Etape 1

Variables

AMOUNT

2,692

1

,101

NUMBEROF

65,973

1

,000

AGE

18,164

1

,000

NOOFDEPE

,007

1

,935

CYCLE

53,898

1

,000

PREVAMOU

38,441

1

,000

PASSAGEM

39,522

1

,000

DUMMY_GS

35,349

1

,000

DUMMY_SO

,889

1

,346

DUMMY_FO

,045

1

,832

DUMMY_TA

33,340

1

,000

DUMMY_EL

,000

1

,984

DUMMY_HO

11,137

1

,001

DUMMY_MA

33,526

1

,000

DUMMY_VE

,088

1

,767

DUMMY_DI

1,300

1

,254

DUMMY_LI

,001

1

,976

DUMMY_PR

1,512

1

,219

DUMMY_SE

1,080

1

,299

DUMMY_SU

1,604

1

,205

DUMMY_CO

,027

1

,871

V28_A

,063

1

,802

V29_A

,769

1

,381

DUMMY_AC

2,403

1

,121

EXPERIEN

50,187

1

,000

Etape 2

Variables

AMOUNT

20,682

1

,000

AGE

26,007

1

,000

NOOFDEPE

,153

1

,696

CYCLE

28,522

1

,000

PREVAMOU

12,796

1

,000

PASSAGEM

88,061

1

,000

DUMMY_GS

39,194

1

,000

DUMMY_SO

23,229

1

,000

DUMMY_FO

,025

1

,874

DUMMY_TA

16,714

1

,000

DUMMY_EL

,065

1

,798

DUMMY_HO

14,100

1

,000

DUMMY_MA

40,169

1

,000

DUMMY_VE

,198

1

,656

DUMMY_DI

1,191

1

,275

DUMMY_LI

,208

1

,648

DUMMY_PR

1,565

1

,211

DUMMY_SE

,552

1

,457

DUMMY_SU

1,586

1

,208

DUMMY_CO

,032

1

,858

V28_A

,010

1

,922

V29_A

,713

1

,398

DUMMY_AC

1,975

1

,160

EXPERIEN

52,293

1

,000

Etape 3

Variables

AMOUNT

12,187

1

,000

AGE

41,479

1

,000

NOOFDEPE

1,514

1

,219

CYCLE

,072

1

,788

PREVAMOU

12,187

1

,000

DUMMY_GS

5,805

1

,016

DUMMY_SO

1,360

1

,244

DUMMY_FO

1,300

1

,254

DUMMY_TA

,633

1

,426

DUMMY_EL

,348

1

,555

DUMMY_HO

25,421

1

,000

DUMMY_MA

47,495

1

,000

DUMMY_VE

,073

1

,787

DUMMY_DI

,531

1

,466

DUMMY_LI

1,157

1

,282

DUMMY_PR

,946

1

,331

DUMMY_SE

,000

1

,999

DUMMY_SU

,771

1

,380

DUMMY_CO

,305

1

,581

V28_A

,092

1

,762

V29_A

2,173

1

,140

DUMMY_AC

2,656

1

,103

EXPERIEN

30,655

1

,000

Etape 4

Variables

AMOUNT

12,053

1

,001

AGE

19,892

1

,000

NOOFDEPE

1,249

1

,264

CYCLE

,002

1

,964

PREVAMOU

12,053

1

,001

DUMMY_GS

6,748

1

,009

DUMMY_SO

1,123

1

,289

DUMMY_FO

1,322

1

,250

DUMMY_TA

1,437

1

,231

DUMMY_EL

,518

1

,472

DUMMY_HO

20,073

1

,000

DUMMY_VE

4,370

1

,037

DUMMY_DI

2,589

1

,108

DUMMY_LI

2,290

1

,130

DUMMY_PR

,469

1

,494

DUMMY_SE

,516

1

,472

DUMMY_SU

1,373

1

,241

DUMMY_CO

,103

1

,749

V28_A

,008

1

,930

V29_A

,693

1

,405

DUMMY_AC

2,952

1

,086

EXPERIEN

32,499

1

,000

Etape 5

Variables

AMOUNT

18,846

1

,000

AGE

23,624

1

,000

NOOFDEPE

1,728

1

,189

CYCLE

1,875

1

,171

PREVAMOU

18,846

1

,000

DUMMY_GS

5,468

1

,019

DUMMY_SO

,370

1

,543

DUMMY_FO

1,429

1

,232

DUMMY_TA

1,700

1

,192

DUMMY_EL

1,071

1

,301

DUMMY_HO

23,429

1

,000

DUMMY_VE

4,037

1

,045

DUMMY_DI

3,030

1

,082

DUMMY_LI

1,818

1

,177

DUMMY_PR

,514

1

,473

DUMMY_SE

,249

1

,618

DUMMY_SU

1,563

1

,211

DUMMY_CO

,244

1

,622

V28_A

,050

1

,823

V29_A

,707

1

,400

DUMMY_AC

6,217

1

,013

Etape 6

Variables

AMOUNT

16,385

1

,000

NOOFDEPE

,832

1

,362

CYCLE

,557

1

,455

PREVAMOU

16,385

1

,000

DUMMY_GS

5,170

1

,023

DUMMY_SO

,572

1

,450

DUMMY_FO

1,335

1

,248

DUMMY_TA

1,278

1

,258

DUMMY_EL

,669

1

,413

DUMMY_HO

21,068

1

,000

DUMMY_VE

1,599

1

,206

DUMMY_DI

,013

1

,909

DUMMY_LI

2,063

1

,151

DUMMY_PR

,085

1

,771

DUMMY_SE

1,433

1

,231

DUMMY_SU

2,141

1

,143

DUMMY_CO

,001

1

,977

V28_A

,073

1

,788

V29_A

,137

1

,711

DUMMY_AC

5,528

1

,019

Etape 7

Variables

AMOUNT

18,511

1

,000

NOOFDEPE

,545

1

,460

CYCLE

,268

1

,604

PREVAMOU

18,511

1

,000

DUMMY_GS

3,059

1

,080

DUMMY_SO

,344

1

,557

DUMMY_FO

1,721

1

,190

DUMMY_TA

,559

1

,455

DUMMY_EL

,456

1

,499

DUMMY_VE

,803

1

,370

DUMMY_DI

,388

1

,533

DUMMY_LI

2,318

1

,128

DUMMY_PR

,255

1

,613

DUMMY_SE

2,235

1

,135

DUMMY_SU

2,352

1

,125

DUMMY_CO

,018

1

,894

V28_A

,002

1

,963

V29_A

,022

1

,882

DUMMY_AC

5,213

1

,022

Etape 8

Variables

NOOFDEPE

,430

1

,512

CYCLE

10,839

1

,001

PREVAMOU

,000

1

1,000

DUMMY_GS

4,972

1

,026

DUMMY_SO

6,116

1

,013

DUMMY_FO

,314

1

,575

DUMMY_TA

,295

1

,587

DUMMY_EL

,173

1

,677

DUMMY_VE

,736

1

,391

DUMMY_DI

,241

1

,623

DUMMY_LI

1,065

1

,302

DUMMY_PR

,035

1

,851

DUMMY_SE

1,971

1

,160

DUMMY_SU

2,179

1

,140

DUMMY_CO

,257

1

,612

V28_A

,056

1

,813

V29_A

,024

1

,877

DUMMY_AC

4,557

1

,033

Etape 9

Variables

NOOFDEPE

,658

1

,417

PREVAMOU

,000

1

1,000

DUMMY_GS

4,116

1

,042

DUMMY_SO

4,895

1

,027

DUMMY_FO

,460

1

,498

DUMMY_TA

,299

1

,584

DUMMY_EL

,252

1

,615

DUMMY_VE

,715

1

,398

DUMMY_DI

,331

1

,565

DUMMY_LI

1,680

1

,195

DUMMY_PR

,107

1

,744

DUMMY_SE

1,559

1

,212

DUMMY_SU

1,919

1

,166

DUMMY_CO

,198

1

,657

V28_A

,112

1

,738

V29_A

,000

1

,989

DUMMY_AC

4,758

1

,029

Etape 10

Variables

NOOFDEPE

,632

1

,426

PREVAMOU

12693,622

1

,000

DUMMY_GS

1,144

1

,285

DUMMY_FO

,034

1

,854

DUMMY_TA

,067

1

,796

DUMMY_EL

,235

1

,628

DUMMY_VE

,677

1

,411

DUMMY_DI

,329

1

,566

DUMMY_LI

1,662

1

,197

DUMMY_PR

,096

1

,756

DUMMY_SE

1,649

1

,199

DUMMY_SU

1,978

1

,160

DUMMY_CO

,219

1

,640

V28_A

,083

1

,773

V29_A

,007

1

,932

DUMMY_AC

4,512

1

,034

Etape 11

Variables

NOOFDEPE

30,767

1

,000

DUMMY_GS

12,337

1

,000

DUMMY_FO

,854

1

,356

DUMMY_TA

,494

1

,482

DUMMY_EL

,009

1

,923

DUMMY_VE

1,756

1

,185

DUMMY_DI

,009

1

,925

DUMMY_LI

,338

1

,561

DUMMY_PR

24,087

1

,000

DUMMY_SE

5,101

1

,024

DUMMY_SU

3,015

1

,083

DUMMY_CO

13,302

1

,000

V28_A

2,049

1

,152

V29_A

1,888

1

,169

DUMMY_AC

2,410

1

,121

Statistiques globales

1173,406

15

,000

a Les khi-deux résiduels ne sont pas calculés du fait de la présence de redondances.

Matrice de corrélation

 

Constante

DUMMY_FA

NUMOF

PASGM

DUM_MA

EXPERIEN

AGE

DUM_HO

AMOU

CYC

DUM_SO

PREVA

11

Constante

1,000

-,150

-,653

,000

-,072

-,134

-,533

-,188

,000

,007

-,432

,000

AMOUNT

,000

,000

,000

-1,000

,000

,000

,000

,000

1,000

,000

,000

-1,000

NUMBEROF

-,653

,047

1,000

,000

-,033

,069

-,044

,069

,000

-,056

,497

,000

AGE

-,533

,006

-,044

,000

-,334

-,040

1,000

,035

,000

-,114

,002

,000

CYCLE

,007

-,048

-,056

,000

,008

-,157

-,114

,119

,000

1,000

-,082

,000

PREVAMOU

,000

,000

,000

1,000

,000

,000

,000

,000

-1,000

,000

,000

1,000

PASSAGEM

,000

,000

,000

1,000

,000

,000

,000

,000

-1,000

,000

,000

1,000

DUMMY_FA

-,150

1,000

,047

,000

,048

-,161

,006

-,094

,000

-,048

,183

,000

DUMMY_SO

-,432

,183

,497

,000

,016

-,007

,002

-,026

,000

-,082

1,000

,000

DUMMY_HO

-,188

-,094

,069

,000

,065

,052

,035

1,000

,000

,119

-,026

,000

DUMMY_MA

-,072

,048

-,033

,000

1,000

-,005

-,334

,065

,000

,008

,016

,000

EXPERIEN

-,134

-,161

,069

,000

-,005

1,000

-,040

,052

,000

-,157

-,007

,000

Annexe 4

Second modèle

Case Processing Summary

Unweighted Casesa

N

Percent

Selected Cases

Included in Analysis

16019

100,0

Missing Cases

2

,0

Total

16021

100,0

Unselected Cases

0

,0

Total

16021

100,0

a. If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total number of cases.

Model Summary

Step

-2 Log likelihood

Cox & Snell R Square

Nagelkerke R Square

1

14960,255a

,021

,033

2

14895,033b

,025

,040

3

14812,557b

,030

,048

4

14766,137b

,032

,053

5

14733,965b

,034

,056

6

14709,173b

,036

,058

7

14687,839b

,037

,060

8

14668,434b

,038

,062

9

14657,570b

,039

,063

10

14652,793b

,039

,064

a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 4 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001.

b. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001.

Dependent Variable Encoding

Original Value

Internal Value

pas de retard

0

retard

1

Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients

 
 

Chi-square

df

Sig.

Step 1

Step

333,368

1

,000

Block

333,368

1

,000

Model

333,368

1

,000

Step 2

Step

65,222

1

,000

Block

398,590

2

,000

Model

398,590

2

,000

Step 3

Step

82,477

1

,000

Block

481,067

3

,000

Model

481,067

3

,000

Step 4

Step

46,420

1

,000

Block

527,486

4

,000

Model

527,486

4

,000

Step 5

Step

32,172

1

,000

Block

559,658

5

,000

Model

559,658

5

,000

Step 6

Step

24,792

1

,000

Block

584,450

6

,000

Model

584,450

6

,000

Step 7

Step

21,334

1

,000

Block

605,784

7

,000

Model

605,784

7

,000

Step 8

Step

19,406

1

,000

Block

625,189

8

,000

Model

625,189

8

,000

Step 9

Step

10,864

1

,001

Block

636,054

9

,000

Model

636,054

9

,000

Step 10

Step

4,776

1

,029

Block

640,830

10

,000

Model

640,830

10

,000

Variables in the Equation

 

 

B

S.E.

Wald

df

Sig.

Exp(B)

Step 1a

dummy_fardi

0,74974133

0,0413

329,098

1

,000

2,116

Constant

-1,84815554

0,0303

3729,863

1

,000

,158

Step 2b

NumberOfpayments

0,05954020

0,0073

66,298

1

,000

1,061

dummy_fardi

0,65237986

0,0429

230,987

1

,000

1,920

Constant

-2,31679752

0,0663

1222,528

1

,000

,099

Step 3c

NumberOfpayments

0,08236610

0,0078

111,630

1

,000

1,086

PassageMontant

-0,00058155

0,0001

85,575

1

,000

,999

dummy_fardi

0,69926444

0,0438

254,991

1

,000

2,012

Constant

-2,44833660

0,0683

1285,761

1

,000

,086

Step 4d

NumberOfpayments

0,08687065

0,0078

122,979

1

,000

1,091

PassageMontant

-0,00060840

0,0001

92,747

1

,000

,999

dummy_fardi

0,68136423

0,0439

240,800

1

,000

1,977

dummy_marie

-0,31723971

0,0460

47,517

1

,000

,728

Constant

-2,24374804

0,0739

921,644

1

,000

,106

Step 5e

NumberOfpayments

0,08528113

0,0078

118,716

1

,000

1,089

PassageMontant

-0,00053588

0,0001

69,353

1

,000

,999

dummy_fardi

0,63018406

0,0449

197,365

1

,000

1,878

dummy_marie

-0,32367827

0,0461

49,322

1

,000

,723

experience_AC

0,00468083

0,0008

32,752

1

,000

1,005

Constant

-2,32632895

0,0752

955,943

1

,000

,098

Step 6f

NumberOfpayments

0,09013788

0,0079

130,245

1

,000

1,094

Age

-0,01041402

0,0021

24,496

1

,000

,990

PassageMontant

-0,00057512

0,0001

78,661

1

,000

,999

dummy_fardi

0,63024244

0,0449

197,097

1

,000

1,878

dummy_marie

-0,24355634

0,0489

24,765

1

,000

,784

experience_AC

0,00497225

0,0008

36,741

1

,000

1,005

Constant

-2,03536476

0,0949

459,902

1

,000

,131

Step 7g

NumberOfpayments

0,09284481

0,0079

137,631

1

,000

1,097

Age

-0,00994222

0,0021

22,154

1

,000

,990

PassageMontant

-0,00060431

0,0001

86,804

1

,000

,999

dummy_fardi

0,60865830

0,0452

181,682

1

,000

1,838

dummy_homme

0,24272651

0,0519

21,831

1

,000

1,275

dummy_marie

-0,22834331

0,0492

21,516

1

,000

,796

experience_AC

0,00520013

0,0008

39,942

1

,000

1,005

Constant

-2,12711975

0,0971

480,103

1

,000

,119

Step 8h

Amount

-0,00031848

0,0001

18,333

1

,000

1,000

NumberOfpayments

0,12028480

0,0102

139,074

1

,000

1,128

Age

-0,00930794

0,0021

19,356

1

,000

,991

PassageMontant

-0,00057385

0,0001

74,688

1

,000

,999

dummy_fardi

0,64570782

0,0460

197,434

1

,000

1,907

dummy_homme

0,25621527

0,0521

24,211

1

,000

1,292

dummy_marie

-0,23283146

0,0493

22,338

1

,000

,792

experience_AC

0,00575861

0,0008

47,896

1

,000

1,006

Constant

-2,24515195

0,1014

489,894

1

,000

,106

Step 9i

Amount

-0,00053258

0,0001

28,371

1

,000

,999

NumberOfpayments

0,11943081

0,0102

136,592

1

,000

1,127

Age

-0,01008881

0,0021

22,420

1

,000

,990

Cycle

0,03879033

0,0117

11,017

1

,001

1,040

PassageMontant

-0,00033950

0,0001

12,032

1

,001

1,000

dummy_fardi

0,64055755

0,0460

193,867

1

,000

1,898

dummy_homme

0,27656309

0,0524

27,822

1

,000

1,319

dummy_marie

-0,23133905

0,0493

22,025

1

,000

,793

experience_AC

0,00531894

0,0008

39,737

1

,000

1,005

Constant

-2,25446560

0,1014

494,522

1

,000

,105

Step 10j

Amount

-0,00058950

0,0001

32,058

1

,000

,999

NumberOfpayments

0,13209881

0,0118

125,750

1

,000

1,141

Age

-0,01007606

0,0021

22,352

1

,000

,990

Cycle

0,03672781

0,0117

9,801

1

,002

1,037

PassageMontant

-0,00027807

0,0001

7,412

1

,006

1,000

dummy_fardi

0,65894468

0,0468

198,097

1

,000

1,933

dummy_solfa

0,29147199

0,1323

4,853

1

,028

1,338

dummy_homme

0,27335096

0,0525

27,151

1

,000

1,314

dummy_marie

-0,22959808

0,0493

21,684

1

,000

,795

experience_AC

0,00530517

0,0008

39,519

1

,000

1,005

Constant

-2,35967705

0,1123

441,124

1

,000

,094

Correlation Matrix

 

 

Constant

NumberOfpayments

dummy_fardi

PassageMontant

dummy_marie

experience_AC

Age

dummy_homme

Amount

Cycle

dummy_solfa

Step 10

Constant

1,000

-,657

-,154

-,125

-,070

-,134

-,531

-,187

,303

,006

-,439

Amount

,303

-,516

-,165

-,566

,009

-,010

,023

-,107

1,000

-,614

-,261

NumberOfpayments

-,657

1,000

,060

,016

-,034

,069

-,043

,068

-,516

-,051

,505

Age

-,531

-,043

,005

,004

-,334

-,040

1,000

,035

,023

-,113

,002

Cycle

,006

-,051

-,044

,678

,007

-,156

-,113

,119

-,614

1,000

-,081

PassageMontant

-,125

,016

-,060

1,000

,015

,014

,004

,009

-,566

,678

,280

dummy_fardi

-,154

,060

1,000

-,060

,049

-,162

,005

-,093

-,165

-,044

,187

dummy_solfa

-,439

,505

,187

,280

,015

-,006

,002

-,028

-,261

-,081

1,000

dummy_homme

-,187

,068

-,093

,009

,065

,053

,035

1,000

-,107

,119

-,028

dummy_marie

-,070

-,034

,049

,015

1,000

-,004

-,334

,065

,009

,007

,015

experience_AC

-,134

,069

-,162

,014

-,004

1,000

-,040

,053

-,010

-,156

-,006

Classification Tablea

 

Observed

Predicted

 

dummy du retard

Percentage Correct

 

pas de retard

retard

Step 1

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13072

0

100,0

retard

2947

0

,0

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 2

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13072

0

100,0

retard

2947

0

,0

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 3

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13068

4

100,0

retard

2945

2

,1

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 4

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13068

4

100,0

retard

2943

4

,1

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 5

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13068

4

100,0

retard

2943

4

,1

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 6

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13065

7

99,9

retard

2943

4

,1

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 7

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13062

10

99,9

retard

2942

5

,2

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 8

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13065

7

99,9

retard

2941

6

,2

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 9

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13066

6

100,0

retard

2940

7

,2

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 10

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13068

4

100,0

retard

2940

7

,2

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

a. The cut value is ,500

Classification Table

 

Observed

Predicted

 

dummy du retard

Percentage Correct

 

pas retard

retard

Step 1

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13072

0

100,0

retard

2947

0

,0

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 2

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13072

0

100,0

retard

2947

0

,0

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 3

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13068

4

100,0

retard

2945

2

,1

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 4

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13068

4

100,0

retard

2944

3

,1

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 5

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13069

3

100,0

retard

2943

4

,1

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 6

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13067

5

100,0

retard

2943

4

,1

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 7

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13064

8

99,9

retard

2942

5

,2

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 8

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13065

7

99,9

retard

2943

4

,1

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 9

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13067

5

100,0

retard

2942

5

,2

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 10

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13068

4

100,0

retard

2941

6

,2

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

a. The cut value is ,510

Classification Tablea

 

Observed

Predicted

 

dummy du retard

Percentage Correct

 
 

retard

2943

4

,1

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 6

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13063

9

99,9

retard

2942

5

,2

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 7

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13061

11

99,9

retard

2942

5

,2

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 8

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13063

9

99,9

retard

2941

6

,2

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 9

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13064

8

99,9

retard

2939

8

,3

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

Step 10

dummy du retard

pas de retard

13065

7

99,9

retard

2940

7

,2

Overall Percentage

 
 

81,6

a. The cut value is ,490

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