Impact du réchauffement climatique sur la distribution spatiale des ressources halieutiques le long du littoral français: observations et scénarios

2.2. Perspectives

Bien que durant la thèse, le modèle NPPEN ait été employé sur une multitude d'espèces de poissons mais également sur quelques invertébrés marins, il n'a pas encore été tenté de réaliser une approche multi-spécifique à proprement parlé. Une étude de l'évolution d'assemblages d'espèces, de même qu'une évaluation de la diversité ichtyologique en mer du Nord sont envisagées. Cette approche permettra d'évaluer les changements possibles qui attendent la structure et l'organisation des assemblages d'espèces et la biodiversité marine.

Originalement destiné à effectuer des simulations de distribution spatiale des espèces à macro-échelle, le modèle NPPEN est en phase de test à l'échelle plus locale, au sein du programme SURCOTE (LITEAU III) pour modéliser l'évolution spatiale des ressources marines (poissons, mollusques bivalves et gastéropodes, herbiers et biostromes ; Rombouts et al., en préparation)^4(*). Ce projet scientifique est destiné à analyser l'évolution des communautés benthiques le long des côtes françaises en Manche. Si les paramètres environnementaux utilisés jusqu'alors (température, bathymétrie, salinité, nature du sédiment) ne sont clairement pas suffisants pour rendre compte de la distribution fine des espèces étudiées le long d'une côte d'une centaine de kilomètres, les premiers résultats obtenus restent tout de même très intéressants. L'application de ce modèle nécessite d'être poursuivi par l'ajout de descripteurs environnementaux plus en rapport avec la distribution des organismes à cette échelle locale. D'un point de vue purement technique, cette démarche constitue un réel exercice permettant de mieux cerner les limites et les conditions d'applicabilité du modèle NPPEN.

Le modèle NPPEN a également été transposé aux données du Service d'Observation en Milieu LITtoral (SOMLIT). Ce programme d'observation du littoral français a pour mission de prélever, selon un protocole d'acquisition commun, un ensemble de paramètres physiques, chimiques et biologiques dans le but de déconvoluer l'influence des forçages anthropiques de la variabilité climatique naturelle. Dans ce contexte scientifique, le modèle NPPEN a permis l'élaboration d'états de référence relatifs des systèmes, rendant possible la détection et la quantification, en quasi temps réel, des perturbations consécutives des activités anthropogéniques (Goberville et al., 2010 ; Goberville et al., soumis-a, Goberville et al., soumis-b)

Dans le cadre du nouveau projet BIODIMAR, destiné au suivi et à l'anticipation de l'impact des changements globaux sur la biodiversité marine du Nord-Pas-de-Calais, le modèle NPPEN sera l'outil principal utilisé pour la réalisation d'un des objectifs majeurs de ce projet : l'établissement des projections sur l'évolution de la biodiversité marine en région Nord-Pas-Calais et en particulier sur les systèmes planctonique, nectonique, « forêt de laminaires » et macrofaune benthique.

Enfin, le modèle NPPEN est utilisé dans le cadre d'une étude visant à caractériser la variabilité temporelle et spatiale des provinces biogéochimiques de Longhurst. Les fluctuations qui touchent ces provinces sont envisagées aux échelles saisonnières, interannuelles et décennales, dans le but d'en évaluer et d'en quantifier la mobilité (Reygondeau et al., soumis)^5(*).

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Résumé

Cette thèse doctorale, réalisée dans le cadre d'un partenariat avec des professionnels de la pêche, a pour objet l'étude de l'impact du réchauffement climatique sur la distribution spatiale des poissons en Atlantique Nord, à l'aide de l'application d'un nouveau modèle d'habitat appelé le Non-Parametric Probabilistic Ecological Niche Model (NPPEN). Le modèle NPPEN est non-paramétrique et basé sur le concept de niche écologique (sensu Hutchinson). Le modèle ne requiert que des données de présence. Il est donc bien adapté à l'étude à macro-échelle de la biogéographie des espèces marines Le modèle NPPEN teste la distance généralisée de Mahalanobis par un test non-paramétrique de permutations afin de produire et de cartographier les probabilités de présence des espèces. L'application de ce nouveau modèle, sur plus de cinquante espèces marines en Atlantique Nord, a mis en évidence l'impact du réchauffement climatique sur la biogéographie des espèces et sur la structure et la trophodynamique de l'écosystème marin. Des bouleversements, déjà observés dans la distribution spatiale et l'abondance (probabilités de présence) d'espèces de poissons, tels la morue de l'Atlantique ou le lançon nordique, ont été retrouvés. En majorité, les espèces vont effectuer un déplacement dirigé vers le nord, pour rester dans un environnement conforme à leur niche écologique. L'intensité et la vitesse des mouvements biogéographiques attendus, de même que le bilan des gains ou pertes d'aires de répartition spatiale diffèrent selon les poissons ; régis par les capacités de déplacements des espèces, leur domaine de tolérance environnementale (largeur de leur niche) et l'intensité du réchauffement climatique. En mer du Nord, des espèces comme le lieu jaune, à la niche écologique étroite et aux exigences strictes, risquent de disparaitre suite à la contraction de leur aire de répartition. D'autres espèces, plus adaptées verront leur abondance augmentée ou/et leur limite supérieure de distribution repoussée au nord, tel l'entélure. Ces changements altérèrent le fonctionnement du réseau trophique en modifiant la disponibilité et la qualité des ressources en poissons pour les consommateurs supérieurs comme les oiseaux marins, participant ainsi à la réduction de leur succès de reproduction. Les poissons eux-mêmes, comme la morue de l'Atlantique, sont affectés par les modifications biogéographiques induites par le réchauffement climatique, de leurs proies zooplanctoniques Calanus finmarchicus. Ces bouleversements trophiques et biogéographiques sont d'autant plus prononcés que l'espèce concernée se trouve en limite de sa niché écologique.

L'utilisation du nouveau modèle d'habitat NPPEN fournit des informations essentielles, à considérer pour anticiper les changements des ressources marines, notamment dans le cadre de plans de gestion des stocks de poissons exploités.

Abstract

This aims to study the impact of climate warming on the spatial distribution of fish in the North Atlantic, using the new habitat model called the Non-Parametric Probabilistic Ecological Niche Model (NPPEN). The model NPPEN is nonparametric and requires only presence data. It is based on concept of the ecological niche sensu Hutchinson. The model NPPEN tests the Mahalanobis generalised distance by permutations to produce and map the probability of species occurrence. The model is therefore well suited to study expected changes in the biogeography of marine species at macro-scale. Applying this new model on more than fifty marine species in the North Atlantic, has highlighted the impact of global warming on the biogeography of species, structure and trophodynamic of the marine ecosystem. Disruption, already observed in spatial distribution and abundance (probability of occurrence) of fish species such as Atlantic cod and lesser sandeel were found again. The majority of species will move northward to stay in an environment consistent with their ecological niche. The intensity and rapidity of the biogeographic movements expected, as the balance of gains or losses in the spatial range differ among fish; governed by the ability of species movement, their range of environmental tolerance (niche breadth) and the intensity of global warming. In the North Sea, species such as pollack, with tight and strict requirements ecological niche, may disappear following the contraction of their niche. The abundance of more adapted species, as the snake pipefish, has increased and their upper limit of distribution extended northward. These changes alter the functioning of the food web by changing the availability and quality of fish resources to upper level consumers as seabirds, reducing their reproductive success. The fish themselves, such as Atlantic cod, are affected by biogeographic changes, induced by global warming, in their zooplanktonic prey, Calanus finmarchicus. These trophic and biogeographic changes are more pronounced when the species is at the limit of its ecological niche.

The new model NPPEN habitat provides essential information to consider in order anticipating changes in marine resources, particularly in the context of management plans for exploited fish stocks.

* 4 Rombouts, I., Beaugrand, G. Dauvin, J. C. Re-distributions of commercially exploited benthic fauna from the English Channel simulated under climate change scenarios. En préparation

* 5 Reygondeau G, Longhurst A, Beaugrand G, Martinez E, Antoine D and Maury O, (soumis) Toward a dynamic biogeography