The Union for the Mediterranean: a rescue plan for Europe an opportunity or an opportunity for the Maghreb

The Stakes of a Euro-Maghreb Partnership

III/ The Stakes of a Euro-Maghreb Partnership:

A/ The Socio-Economic Stake:

The Euro-Maghreb partnership deals mainly with issues of common interests, namely socio-economic problems. Therefore, the establishment of a solid partnership represents a way to contain problems and to draw benefits from the stakes that face both sides. Indeed, both entities suffer from socio-economic problems. In one hand, Maghreb countries witness a tremendous unemployment which represents for a certain extent an impediment for economic improvement. On the other hand, Europe endures demographic problems and foreign economic concurrence. In fact, an aging society and a growing international economic competition represent threats for a sustainable economic progress in the old continent. However, some analysts put the blame on the meager cooperation between Maghreb and Europe and the absence of effective implementation of the formerly established plans (i.e. Barcelona Process) to make out of the region a pole of influence on the international stage.

It is admitted that unemployment represents the main impediment to economic prosperity in the Maghreb. But, demographic problems also represent an additional burden. In fact, the population in the Maghreb quadrupled since 1950. Therefore, economic improvement did not succeed to keep up with the demographic change which led the region to witness economic backwardness. Furthermore, Maghreb governments failed to implement plans in a way to absorb the important number of unemployed people. In fact, some unemployment figures of the region are representative of the gravity of the situation. For instance, according to 2004/2005 «CIA fact book» estimations, unemployment stands at 25.4 per cent in Algeria. The figures for Morocco and Tunisia are 11.6 per cent and 13.8 per cent respectively. Nevertheless, some Maghreb states, especially Tunisia and Morocco opted for a policy of engagement with the EU, in order to minimize this phenomenon. So far, unemployment in the Maghreb indirectly affects at a certain extent the EU countries. Indeed, it is considered among the pushing factors for illegal immigration. Accordingly, helping Maghreb states to develop a solid economic infrastructure in a way to provide further jobs indirectly would be beneficial for Europe. In the light of this idea, the European Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighborhood Policy, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, stipulates; «the more we develop the southern region of the Mediterranean the less we will face illegal immigration». Obviously, the statement depicts the trend adopted by the European Union, in order to foster economy in the Maghreb. Thus, insuring welfare in the south (i.e Maghreb region) would indirectly outpace the issue of illegal immigration in EU.

As far as the Euro-Maghreb relations are concerned, an effective partnership would also help Europe to overcome its demographic challenge. Indeed, unlike Europe, the Maghreb region is filled with youth. For example, in both Algeria and Morocco, the median age is 23, in Tunisia it is 26. Roughly 30 per cent of the population in Algeria is under the age of 15. In Morocco it is 32 per cent and in Tunisia it is 25 per cent. However, «The EU is facing unprecedented demographic changes that will have a major impact on the whole of society. Figures in the Green Paper on Demographic Change launched by the Commission show that from now until 2030 the EU will lack 20.8 million (6.8 per cent) people of working age. In 2030 roughly two active people (15-65) will have to take care of one inactive person (65+).»^18(*) Furthermore, the ratio of dependent young and old people to people of working age will increase from 49 per cent in 2005 to 66 per cent in 2030. Hence, to offset the loss of working-age people, Europeans will need an employment rate of over 70 per cent. Therefore, the collaboration imposes itself as a crucial alternative to overcome respective socio-economic problems for Europe and the Maghreb as well. Thus, Maghreb states would be an important partner to sustain demography and economy in Europe.

* 18

The European Commission, «the Green Paper on Demographic Change». Brussels 17/03/2005.

Green papers are discussion papers published by the Commission on a specific policy area. Primarily they are documents addressed to interested parties - organizations and individuals - who are invited to participate in a process of consultation and debate. In some cases they provide an impetus for subsequent legislation.