The Union for the Mediterranean: a rescue plan for Europe an opportunity or an opportunity for the Maghreb

3- Factors urging the Union for the Mediterranean:

A/ European Reasons to join the UfM:

Several factors are urging the European Union to get onto effective partnership with its southern neighbors. In fact, the world is no longer that of a hegemonic G7, The European continent should face new realities and cope with new emerging powers (i.e. BRIC states^12(*)). Therefore, analysts foreshadow emerging powers to overtake actual superpowers in the next couple of decades. Thus, Europe should handle the situation since it would clearly endanger its position as a world influential power especially in a world of drastic rapid changes.

a- European Demographic Difficulties:

The European continent faces a considerable demographic challenge namely aging society. In terms of demography, the European Union encompasses the world's third largest population after China and India. In fact, the EU makes up only 7% of the world's population.^13(*) Today, most of the EU's total population growth is due to migration which somehow is considered as a blessing for Europe, since it tends to recover the up coming demographic crisis. Indeed, this phenomenon is due to, the decrease in birth rates and the rise in life expectancy. The situation in some states in Europe is crucial. Indeed, these trends would generate important implications in the near future, namely an aged society which implies economically dependent and unproductive community. Consequently, immigration imposes itself as a way out from this situation, since it brings much-needed young people into the EU workforce.

b- Safeguarding a Strong Europe:

Since the post Second World War era, states of the European
Union (EU) place economy at the top of their agenda. Therefore, the EU's main aim is economic development. In fact, over the last fifty years, and especially during the 1980s and 1990s, much has been done to break down the boundaries that hamper the development of the Euro-zone. Consequently, a coherent single market took shape and provided further space wherein goods, people and capital were able to move freely. Moreover, the EU's Gross Domestic Product^14(*) (GDP) sustainably grew from the first enlargement, up to the fifth in 2004, in a way that it came to surpass the United States' GDP.^15(*) Today, Europe gathers 27 members which make the old continent a major economic power in the world. However, Europe should face the economic conjuncture of the 21^st. Indeed, new emerging powers are today achieving a fast economic development and GDP improvement, in a way that it would surpass those of the actual superpowers by the year 2040-2050. In fact, Goldman Sachs argues that «the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India, and China is such that they may become among the four most dominant economies by the year 2050.»^16(*) Moreover, Goldman Sachs predicts China and India, respectively, to be the dominant global suppliers of manufactured goods and services while Brazil and Russia would become similarly dominant as suppliers of raw materials. Moreover, other factors come to challenge the EU. In fact, in addition to the internal socio-economic situation and the shadow of BRIC states, the United States aims to establish a free trade zone with the Mediterranean region. This new challenger would represent an additional threat to face for Europe. Thus, establishing a sold partnership with the Mediterranean states starting with Maghreb area would be the only way to counter the emerging powers and the aspiration of other superpowers to dominate the area. Accordingly, «the future of Europe seems to be in the South». Thus, the UfM would enable Europe to limit its alienation in world economy.

B/ Reasons Urging Maghreb States to Join the UfM:

Unlike the European economy, The Maghreb economy is vulnerable and likely in need for a back up in order to sustain its economic development. Nevertheless, different attempts were undertaken in order to pull out the region from critical situations. However, some states showed inability to face up difficulties partly because of the lack of natural resources. Hence, economic fragility led some states of the Maghreb to be dependent on foreign aids.

a- The Socio-Economic Situation in the Maghreb:

The socio-economic situation in the Maghreb represents a significant impediment to the economic fulfillment in the region. According to the political science Professor Gregory white^17(*); «The Political economy in the Maghreb experienced sharp asymmetry and imbalance as early as the area decolonized». In fact, the different countries of the Maghreb adopted different approaches and ways in redefining the national economic path. Unlike Europe, the Maghreb states did not adopt a consensual vision in rebuilding the region. Therefore, the lack of coherence in economic orientation drove the region to experience a relative stagnation in comparison with the European neighbor. Nonetheless, it is worthy to mention that the Maghreb political economy had changed significantly from the early years of independence. Despite the difficulties faced during the 1970s and the 1980s, namely because of the oil crisis and other natural disasters such as drought and locust, some Maghreb states knew how to cope with the difficulties and got out of the situation thanks to international organization's support namely those of the World Bank and the IMF.

Despite incoherence in economic orientations and political visions, the Maghreb states managed to act as a single body in the framework of a supranational institution on the image of the European Union. Accordingly, in 1989 the Maghreb countries decided to shape the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) which aims thoroughly to concentrate the regional states' efforts, in a way to out pace economic hazards. However, despite several meetings and concluded accords benefits took much time to overwhelm the states of the region with concrete outcomes. So far, there were seemingly numerous predicaments to instate an effective integration of Maghreb states. For instance, political issues such the tension between Algeria and Morocco over the Western Sahara added difficulty to achieve integrity in the whole region. Meanwhile, the Tunisian state as well as the Moroccan kept with their tradition of openness to Europe. Unlike the Algerian heavy industry orientation, a small and middle size industry based on export took shape in these countries and made out of Morocco and Tunisia a model of development to follow in the region. Furthermore, a strong cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) provided these states with plans for development that significantly helped them to consolidate their economy.

In the realm of the political economy, many states of the Maghreb embraced a policy of economic openness to Europe in the late 20^thC. However, there might be a considerable work to implement, in order to overcome the issue of unemployment. Despite a more diversified economy than at the outset of independence, there are no obvious changes on the level of employment. Hence, the increasing rate of unemployment is becoming difficult to manage especially that the number of population is not ceasing to increase since the 1960's. Although Maghreb states' implemented efforts (i.e. adjustment programs), the problem of unemployment is likely persisting. For instance in Tunisia, where the service sector (construction, communications, banking and tourism) represents the first employer in the state, the average level of unemployment is around 14% which is tremendous for a population that accounts around 10 million people largely young and educated.

Socially speaking, Maghreb countries are facing more or less the same social problems. In fact, the number of population is important. In fact, Morocco encompasses the bulk of the population (26 million). The region also has a high demographic growth rate, although measures have been taken to reduce this phenomenon. Indeed, the greater part of the population is under 25, with 50% being under the age of 15. Consequently, it presents a serious economic impediment for the region and its development since it fuels unemployment. Moreover, this situation engendered other serious problems such as illegal immigration and late marriage which is responsible for the sharp fall in fertility rates.

* 12

BRIC: Brazil Russia India China.

* 13

CIA the world fact book.

* 14

GDP: Gross Domestic Product; the economy's output of goods and services.

* 15

IMF, Eurostat, 2005. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu

* 16

Goldman Sachs: a bank holding company that engages in investment banking, securities services, and investment management.

* 17

Gregory White: professor of political science in the Department of Government at Smith College, Northampton, Massachusetts.