ANNEXES
Annexe n°1 : Evolution de l'indicateur de
performance en termes d'investissement entrants (IPIE) en %
|
Pays Années
|
Bénin
|
Burkina
Faso
|
Côte
d'Ivoire
|
Guinée-
Bissau
|
Mali
|
Niger
|
Sénégal
|
Togo
|
|
1980
|
33,42
|
0,13
|
101,22
|
-
|
14,41
|
213,04
|
44,98
|
409,18
|
|
1981
|
39,69
|
33,58
|
95,23
|
-
|
60,41
|
-69,03
|
265,27
|
259,70
|
|
1982
|
-0,14
|
16,23
|
91,71
|
-
|
16,76
|
204,42
|
131,90
|
287,00
|
|
1983
|
1,47
|
189,90
|
841,73
|
-
|
373,14
|
103,36
|
-1918,11
|
289,11
|
|
1984
|
0,30
|
31,89
|
88,45
|
443,06
|
213,72
|
27,55
|
299,23
|
-385,12
|
|
1985
|
-6,04
|
-64,49
|
293,23
|
775,92
|
154,56
|
-456,99
|
-374,36
|
1498,03
|
|
1986
|
21,44
|
40,14
|
201,16
|
122,84
|
-129,93
|
240,66
|
-52,40
|
150,05
|
|
1987
|
1,56
|
13,69
|
211,46
|
17,79
|
-75,58
|
161,74
|
-19,15
|
139,54
|
|
1988
|
0,00
|
36,62
|
130,20
|
82,39
|
93,48
|
78,21
|
77,40
|
242,84
|
|
1989
|
782,32
|
41,06
|
35,87
|
36,46
|
59,99
|
6,61
|
103,25
|
128,27
|
|
1990
|
406,97
|
1,79
|
53,65
|
94,56
|
28,49
|
198,05
|
119,80
|
134,83
|
|
1991
|
1149,26
|
3,25
|
27,77
|
165,01
|
8,89
|
116,34
|
-24,02
|
72,26
|
|
1992
|
-5153,48
|
-149,95
|
2233,43
|
-2655,84
|
829,27
|
-2594,92
|
-384,27
|
-3973,58
|
|
1993
|
33,97
|
69,47
|
405,64
|
713,87
|
77,30
|
-1089,83
|
-7,29
|
-490,61
|
|
1994
|
92,36
|
98,18
|
95,02
|
17,15
|
100,08
|
-72,95
|
174,71
|
158,94
|
|
1995
|
42,27
|
26,29
|
122,49
|
0,94
|
287,88
|
24,35
|
41,36
|
127,34
|
|
1996
|
113,22
|
44,15
|
156,07
|
27,00
|
120,38
|
34,96
|
12,12
|
83,14
|
|
1997
|
45,64
|
14,54
|
129,08
|
202,58
|
92,72
|
35,87
|
137,26
|
51,04
|
|
1998
|
89,47
|
8,65
|
163,61
|
108,06
|
18,79
|
-2,71
|
76,83
|
104,57
|
|
1999
|
87,97
|
13,57
|
133,07
|
17,51
|
4,37
|
0,71
|
153,58
|
139,38
|
|
2000
|
132,56
|
44,50
|
112,74
|
17,65
|
170,28
|
23,47
|
67,12
|
157,82
|
|
2001
|
87,29
|
14,82
|
122,06
|
9,17
|
218,51
|
55,56
|
30,91
|
226,01
|
|
2002
|
23,48
|
22,29
|
90,32
|
36,56
|
355,85
|
5,41
|
71,40
|
177,54
|
|
2003
|
99,72
|
54,09
|
95,47
|
59,36
|
240,47
|
43,67
|
60,59
|
152,11
|
|
2004
|
108,85
|
19,38
|
126,14
|
20,17
|
143,00
|
62,71
|
66,11
|
191,94
|
|
2005
|
71,58
|
36,41
|
110,29
|
84,26
|
244,07
|
76,41
|
29,64
|
211,29
|
|
2006
|
65,28
|
33,82
|
106,67
|
149,02
|
82,59
|
80,54
|
136,49
|
202,57
|
|
2007
|
168,04
|
185,61
|
78,72
|
81,89
|
37,19
|
110,97
|
95,82
|
71,83
|
|
2008
|
72,07
|
68,34
|
68,98
|
71,95
|
58,44
|
110,19
|
215,07
|
94,16
|
|
IPIE moyen
|
-49,62
|
33,86
|
232,91
|
24,98
|
139,27
|
-81,13
|
-13,17
|
32,54
|
Source : Construit à partir des données de
la base de données de la Banque Mondiale, 2008
Annexe n°2: Résultats des
régressions sur Stata11
> Estimation du capital humain
KH = f(I DE, PI BH, URBAN)
|
xtivreg kh dpibh ddurban (ide = dcredit dpibh ddurban dtchang
didf
interet epargne), re
G2SLS random-effects IV regression Number of obs =
Group variable: pays Number of groups =
|
ouv export
189
7
|
|
R-sq: within
|
= 0.2347
|
|
Obs per group: min =
|
27
|
|
between
|
= 0.6916
|
|
avg =
|
27.0
|
|
overall
|
= 0.2117
|
|
max =
|
27
|
|
|
|
Wald chi2(3) =
|
50.87
|
|
corr(u_i, X)
|
= 0 (assumed)
|
|
Prob > chi2 =
|
0.0000
|
|
kh |
|
Coef. Std. Err.
|
z
|
P>|z| [95% Conf.
|
Interval]
|
|
+
ide |
|
8.60874 1.59084
|
5.41
|
0.000 5.490752
|
11.72673
|
|
dpibh |
|
.0375099 .0178667
|
2.10
|
0.036 .0024918
|
.0725281
|
|
ddurban |
|
67.8705 22.25656
|
3.05
|
0.002 24.24845
|
111.4926
|
|
_cons |
|
51.02991 6.862447
|
7.44
|
0.000 37.57976
|
64.48006
|
|
+
sigma_u |
sigma_e |
|
17.099575
13.859275
|
|
|
|
|
rho |
Instrumented:
|
.6035306 (fraction
ide
|
of variance due to u_i)
|
|
|
Instruments:
|
dpibh ddurban dcredit
|
dtchang
|
didf ouv export interet
|
epargne
|
> Estimation de l'investissement
domestique
I D = f(I DE,CREDI T,Cr,I NTERET,EPARGNE~
xtivreg id dcredit interet epargne (ide cr = dcredit dpibh
ddurban dtchang didf ouv export interet epargne), fe
Fixed-effects (within) IV regression Number of obs = 189
Group variable: pays Number of groups = 7
R-sq: within = 0.1173 Obs per group: min = 27
between = 0.7841 avg = 27.0
overall = 0.1742 max = 27
Wald chi2(5) = 2334.54
corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.1056 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
id | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z|
+
ide | 2.573801 .6635843 3.88 0.000
cr | .4660022 .1980088 2.35 0.019
dcredit | .508779 .1219032 4.17 0.000
interet | .0457301 .0431112 1.06 0.289
epargne | .2545418 .0924325 2.75 0.006
cons | 11.60154 1.053501 11.01 0.000
_
[95% Conf.
|
Interval]
|
|
1.273199
|
3.874402
|
|
.0779122
|
.8540923
|
|
.2698531
|
.7477048
|
|
-.0387664
|
.1302266
|
|
.0733775
|
.4357061
|
|
9.536716
|
13.66637
|
sigma u | 3.8619021
sigma_e | 4.801331
rho | .3928217 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
F test that all u_i=0: F(6,177) = 7.09 Prob > F = 0.0000
Instrumented: ide cr
Instruments: dcredit interet epargne dpibh ddurban dtchang didf
ouv export
> Estimation des déterminants de
l'investissement direct étranger
I DE = f(Cr,KH,OUV ,I D,I DF,Tch ang,I NFLATI ON)
xtivreg ide ouv didf dtchang (id kh cr = dcredit dpibh ddurban
dtchang didf ouv export interet epargne), re
G2SLS random-effects IV regression Number of obs = 189
Group variable: pays Number of groups = 7
R-sq: within = 0.1593 Obs per group: min = 27
between = 0.6853 avg = 27.0
overall = 0.2012 max = 27
|
corr(u_i, X)
|
= 0 (assumed)
|
Wald
Prob
|
chi2(6) =
> chi2 =
|
34.27
0.0000
|
|
ide |
|
Coef.
|
Std. Err.
|
z P>|z|
|
|
[95% Conf.
|
Interval]
|
|
id |
|
-.0157766
|
.0370373
|
-0.43 0.670
|
|
-.0883684
|
.0568152
|
|
kh |
|
.0417837
|
.0167596
|
2.49 0.013
|
|
.0089355
|
.074632
|
|
cr |
|
.1695483
|
.078398
|
2.16 0.031
|
|
.015891
|
.3232056
|
|
ouv |
|
-.3672097
|
1.255384
|
-0.29 0.770
|
|
-2.827716
|
2.093297
|
|
didf |
|
.2163339
|
.0799148
|
2.71 0.007
|
|
.0597036
|
.3729641
|
|
dtchang |
|
.0031569
|
.0019009
|
1.66 0.097
|
|
-.0005688
|
.0068825
|
|
_ cons |
|
-.9896342
|
.7462517
|
-1.33 0.185
|
|
-2.452261
|
.4729922
|
|
sigma u |
|
.31630307
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sigma_e |
|
1.3207657
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
rho |
|
.05424195
|
(fraction
|
of variance due
|
to
|
u_i)
|
|
Instrumented: id kh cr
Instruments: ouv didf dtchang dcredit dpibh ddurban export
interet epargne
> Estimation de l'impact de l'investissement direct
étranger sur la croissance
I DE, KH, EXPORT, I D
xtivreg cr export (ide kh id = dcredit dpibh ddurban dtchang didf
ouv export interet epargne), re
G2SLS random-effects IV regression Number of obs = 189
Group variable: pays Number of groups = 7
R-sq: within = 0.0605 Obs per group: min = 27
between = 0.9357 avg = 27.0
overall = 0.1356 max = 27
Wald chi2(4) = 29.56
corr(u_i, X) = 0 (assumed) Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
cr | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
ide | .6260484 .6281283 1.00 0.319 -.6050604 1.857157
kh | -.0145313 .0444478 -0.33 0.744 -.1016474 .0725847
id | .2597867 .0813559 3.19 0.001 .100332 .4192413
export | -.0364563 .0562103 -0.65 0.517 -.1466265 .0737138
_cons | -3.229369 1.629765 -1.98 0.048 -6.423649 -.0350891
sigma_u | 0
sigma_e | 4.0085693
rho | 0 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
Instrumented: ide kh id
Instruments: export dcredit dpibh ddurban dtchang didf ouv
interet epargne
|
|
