Memoire Online - Les relations cubano-américaines - Silke Pijck, Amina Ibragimova, Celia Ghezzal, Anaïs G

CARRE Maxence GHEZZAL Celia GOUTTEBARON Anaïs IBRAGIMOVA Amina PIJCK Silke

PETRY Morane

Année : 2020-2021

Tuteurs : Patrick Moreno, Patricia Franco Astillero

I) Dans quelle mesure peut-on parler de progrès concernant les relations entre Cuba et les États-Unis depuis le début du mandat d'Obama en 2009 ? (p.6 - p.25)

II) Quels sont les éléments qui nous permettent de parler de revers ou de déceptions concernant les attentes autour de la relation cubano-américaine ? (p.26 - p.34)

III) Quelles sont les répercussions régionales et mondiales de la relation conflictuelle entre les États-Unis et Cuba ? (p.35 - p.43)

Graphique 2 : Graphique circulaire illustrant les principales sources d'importation de Cuba, 2017 (p.17)

Introduction

L'embargo est un terme qui peut être utilisé pour désigner plusieurs situations : interdiction aux navires marchands de quitter le port ; mesures administratives ou militaires destinées à empêcher la libre circulation des marchandises ou des objets...

Celui imposé à Cuba, instauré le 3 février 1962, était un embargo économique, commercial et financier, qui a modifié l'entièreté du fonctionnement de l'île. Les États-Unis, ayant participé à l'instauration de cet embargo, voient leur relation avec l'île se dégrader jusqu'à ce que cette dernière devienne emblématique. Les États-Unis représentent le capitalisme, Cuba le socialisme et l'on voit se dessiner clairement un affrontement idéologique, un affrontement entre le Nord et le Sud, et une remise en question de l'impérialisme états-unien. De plus, il ne faut pas oublier que leurs relations étaient déjà complexes pour commencer, sachant que les États-Unis avaient déjà légitimé une intervention armée imposée en 1901 dans l'amendement à la Constitution Cubaine.

Pendant le dix neuvième siècle, les États-Unis étaient fortement non-interventionnistes, mais au début du vingtième siècle, ils se sont rendus compte de l'avantage économique et géostratégique que représentait Cuba (les plantations de canne à sucre mais aussi son emplacement, au centre du continent et son caractère insulaire). Ils ont d'abord essayé d'acheter l'île à Madrid, sans succès. Cela n'a pas affecté le commerce entre l'île et les États-Unis, ce qui a causé à cette dernière de devenir fortement dépendante. Ils ont alors par la suite essayé de trouver un moyen de pouvoir agir sur l'île sans pour autant avoir à donner d'explications, et c'est alors qu'est apparu l'Amendement Platt en 1901. L'amendement définissait comment Cuba devait agir ou non, et diminuait ses libertés politiques et économiques : les États-Unis pensaient que Cuba ne pouvait pas se gérer correctement étant un peuple mixte, avec une forte communauté noire d'anciens esclaves : cela a été nommé la théorie du «fruit mûr" ou «the ripe fruit thesis», et représentait la croyance selon laquelle cette communauté noire et cubaine tirerait Cuba vers le bas (en contaminant les autres, comme les fruits). Ainsi, les États-Unis acceptaient de retirer leurs troupes armées de l'île, à la suite de la guerre d'indépendance cubaine, seulement si l'Amendement Platt était appliqué. Ils ont alors commencé à s'intéresser à l'île de plus en plus dans les années qui ont suivies, et ont vite contrôlé une grande partie des commerces cubains comme les télécommunications, le commerce du sucre... Cuba a réagi en effectuant de grandes nationalisations, ce qui lui a valu une réaction très vive des États-Unis et du reste de l'Amérique.

L'île s'était faite alliée de l'URSS, avec des accords d'échanges commerciaux qui avaient été mis en place (accords Castro-Mikoyan) sur le sucre et le pétrole, ce qui a valu à Washington de rompre ses relations diplomatiques avec Cuba en 1961. L'URSS a de son côté continué à soutenir financièrement Cuba. Alors, le 25 janvier 1962, l'Organisation des États Américains ¹ a décidé d'exclure Cuba de par son alliance avec l'URSS. Le 3 février 1962, elle était déjà

1 L'Organisation des États Américains: Organisation créée en 1948, située à Washington qui regroupe la plupart des États d'Amérique

victime d'un embargo économique. L'enfermement de Cuba sur elle-même dans une «quarantaine» (tel était son nom à l'époque) est donc directement lié aux événements de la Guerre Froide. Les États-Unis et l'URSS, les deux superpuissances du milieu du vingtième siècle, étaient ennemis idéologiques et en quête de la première place mondiale. Elles s'affrontaient dans une guerre complexe, sans jamais se battre directement: c'était une guerre idéologique, culturelle, militaire, scientifique....

Cuba et l'URSS, à l'époque les deux premières rivales des États-Unis, ont par la suite conclu un accord pour pouvoir installer des missiles soviétique sur l'île (opération Anadyr), et ainsi obtenir un avantage géostratégique direct sur les États-Unis. Cet acte va provoquer ce qu'on connaît aujourd'hui comme la Crise des Missiles, qui va durer du 16 octobre au 28 octobre 1962, paroxysme de la Guerre Froide. Le président John F. Kennedy et le Congrès ont alors pris la décision le 22 octobre 1962 de placer Cuba sous quarantaine²: tous les bateaux à destination de Cuba devaient être interceptés pour vérifier leur cargaison, pour protéger l'Amérique toute entière de la menace soviétique (selon les États-Unis).

On sait aujourd'hui que l'embargo a eu des conséquences considérables sur la façon de fonctionner de l'île et la vie de ses habitants. Celui-ci est d'ailleurs considéré selon l'ONG Amnesty International comme une violation des lois internationales concernant la morale, des terrains politiques et économiques mais aussi, un obstacle au droit de la santé des citoyens cubains. L'île n'était plus libre de se gérer comme elle le voulait, ni de créer des «alliances» ou des traités commerciaux et ne pouvait pas non plus se fournir en technologie de pointe par exemple. Le pays a donc dû trouver des alliés dont l'URSS et la Chine par la suite, qui partageaient la même idéologie, étant le socialisme et cela à partir des années 60. Les accords commerciaux avec le groupe communiste étaient l'un des seuls moyens pour Cuba de garder la tête hors de l'eau, sachant que les États-Unis avaient pour but à l'époque de déstabiliser l'économie cubaine, en les empêchant justement de commercer proprement.

De surcroît, comme conséquence à cet isolement mondial, et aux lois mises en place par les États-Unis, une part de la population Cubaine a commencé à quitter l'île pour rejoindre les États-Unis entre 1959 et 1994, période séparée en quatre vagues de migration (1959-1962, 1965-1973, les années 80, puis de 1993 à 1994). Ces dates suivent des évènements importants, la première vague ayant été lancée par la Révolution Cubaine puis la mise en place de l'embargo. La seconde correspond, elle, à l'ouverture du port de Camarioca permettant aux Cubains de quitter le territoire puis à la mise en place de la «Cuban Adjustement Act»³ en 1966. La troisième et la quatrième sont une réponse à un régime castriste de plus en plus strict, à la chute de l'URSS mais aussi aux accords «wet-foot, dry-foot" (qui garantissaient un accès aux migrants cubains aux États-Unis s'ils arrivaient par la terre, mais les renvoyaient à Cuba s'ils arrivaient par la mer) en 1994-1995.

La chute de l'URSS a fortement impacté Cuba dans un premier temps car le groupe soviétique était l'un des seuls pays à toujours commercer avec l'île. Les relations cubano-américaines qui n'étaient déjà pas très bonnes, ne se sont pas améliorées. À ce moment-là, G.H Bush est président des États-Unis, et entrevoit une chance de reprendre le contrôle de l'île : il met en place, avec le Congrès Américain en 1992, des sanctions beaucoup plus strictes avec notamment la Loi Torricelli⁴, qui apportait des peines aux pays qui assistaient Cuba, ou encore, empêchait un navire d'entrer sur le territoire étasunien pour une durée de 6 mois s'il avait accosté à Cuba. Cette loi ayant une notion d'extraterritorialité, sera utilisée comme justification de toutes les interventions ou du blocus fait à l'île. En 1995, la Loi Helms-Burton⁵ est annoncée et a été mise en place pour encore une fois sanctionner les pays ayant des relations commerciales avec Cuba, en grande majorité par des amendes.

Par la suite, dans les années 2000, la politique du gouvernement de Bush n'était pas du tout ouverte à la réintroduction de Cuba dans l'ordre mondial, ni à un rapprochement entre le territoire étasunien et l'île, qui ont quand même une relation de méfiance et de défiance, mais tout de même avec un certain degré de codépendance. Les conflits sont d'ordre socio-économique avec les migrations de populations, les blocus et les empêchements, il est aussi financier avec les interdictions de commerce, mais il est avant tout idéologique, les deux pays ayant des idéologies «ennemies» et surtout contraires. Ce conflit général a duré plus d'un demi-siècle, et il a fallu attendre l'arrivée d'Obama au pouvoir en 2008 pour voir une modification dans le schéma relationnel et la mention d'une envie de «réchauffement diplomatique».

Notre sujet s'inscrit dans une démarche d'observation et d'analyse, face aux relations difficiles entre Cuba et le géant étasunien, et dans une volonté de comprendre leur évolution. Nous sommes arrivés à la problématique suivante :

Dans quelles mesures peut-on parler d'avancées et de régressions dans les relations entre les États-Unis et Cuba depuis l'élection d'Obama jusqu'à la fin de la mandature de Trump et quelles sont les différentes forces derrière ces progrès ou absences de progrès ?

L'objectif principal de ce mémoire est de pouvoir apprécier et saisir des relations économiques, financières et sociales instables avec plusieurs acteurs, de mesurer et se rendre compte de leur impact non seulement sur les puissances concernées (ici les États-Unis et Cuba) mais aussi sur le reste du monde, qui doit souvent s'inclure et s'adapter à des conflits qui finissent par être mondialisés. Pour analyser le sujet suivant, nous allons voir tout d'abord dans quelles mesures nous pouvons parler de progrès concernant les relations entre Cuba et les États-Unis depuis le début du mandat d'Obama en 2009, puis quels sont les éléments qui nous permettent de parler de revers ou de déceptions concernant les attentes relatives à la relation cubano-américaine, et enfin quelles sont les répercussions régionales et mondiales de la relation tumultueuse entre les États-Unis et Cuba.

4 La loi Torricelli 1992 impose des sanctions à tous pays apportant de l'aide à Cuba

5 Officiellement appelée Loi sur la liberté et la solidarité démocratique de Cuba

I. To what extent can we talk about progress concerning the relationship between Cuba and the United States during the Obama

I. A) Which regional actors have been involved in this bilateral relationship and have they been able to take it forward?

In a context of globalized financial crisis, Cuba's forced isolation has not had the desired effect, which is why, in his speech of the 17th of December 2014, Barack Obama declared that "it's time for a new approach". It is also a critical period for the United States on the international scene since it has been losing its hegemony since the end of the Cold War (which can be attributed to the fall of the Berlin Wall and therefore to the year 1989). In order to regain this political and economic domination, the question of the embargo will be re-examined, which is why, since the inauguration of Barack Obama, the American-Cuban situation has undergone a historic change. But this evolution is not the fruit of a single tree, indeed, as you will be able to see through the reading of the part that follows, multiple actors came into play.

While Stephen Harper (02/2006 to 11/2015), Justin Trudeau's predecessor as the Canadian Prime Minister, was not particularly involved in improving relations between Cuba and the United States, this did not prevent Canada from being one of Cuba's main trading partners. This may raise some questions, since at the time of his inauguration, relations between Canada and Cuba were quite good, despite the absence of diplomatic relations, and the two countries enjoyed relatively large commercial exchanges (exceeding one billion dollars). However, Stephen Harper's new "Americas Strategy" rather explicitly excluded Cuba from its policies promoting a market economy, democratic governance, and the promotion of human rights. This has brought upon him (Stephen H.) much criticism centered on the fact that his policies are very similar to those of the Bush administration of the early 2000s. This concern about human rights is going to be at the center of Harper's politics toward Cuba, it is why the triangle (USA-Cuba-Canada) appeared to be «stuck», up until the election of Obama in 2008 and Trudeau in 2015. The Canadian media have also played a very important role in the hardening of the Harper government's policies towards Castro's, since, despite the fact that they supported the Cuban revolutionary movement in the 1950s, ever since the beginning of the 2000s, the lack of respect for human rights on the island has forced them to review their position. It is therefore with the support of the media and a neighboring leader named George W. Bush (for whom Cuba should be sanctioned) that Stephen Harper has been able to harden his policies towards Cuba.

To what extent did Canada play a decisive role in the restoration of a dialogue ?

The arrival of Barack Obama and his ideals at the head of the country that was at the origin of Cuba's isolation will mark a major turning point in the relations between the countries of the North American triangle. His new policies regarding Cuba opened the door to negotiations

between Havana and Washington, but neither of the two parties involved wanted to go negotiate on the other's territory. Canada being the only country in the American continent (besides Mexico) that has never officially broken off diplomatic relations with Cuba, and being an ally of the United States while also being a geographically close neighbor to both countries, made it the best choice for finding "neutral" ground on which to start negotiations. This position as an ally of the United States is all the more significant since Canada is a member of the Anglosphere, a grouping of countries that speak English and share certain cultural and historical elements with the United Kingdom. Canada is also a major economic partner of both countries, which allows it to have a certain power of influence, which raises another question: Regarding the current situation, would it have been possible for Canada to use its power of influence and thus to make the Cuban situation evolve differently from the beginning of Obama's inauguration? In spite of this, a series of negotiations spread out over a total period of 18 months between Washington and Havana could therefore begin.

It is also easy to imagine that without Canada's intervention, the US-Cuba dialogue would not have been resumed and therefore no progress would have been made towards re-establishing diplomatic relations.

Since the restrictive measures against Cuba come exclusively from the United States, it would be logical to expect that the United States would also be the instigator of a reorganization of relations between the two countries, there are two possible ways of doing this. The first and most common way is through Congress, which can issue bills and have them accepted, but it can also be a difficult barrier to overcome for the president in power. If a majority of the members of Congress oppose the President's bill, the President has no choice but to reconsider the bill or to use his executive power. This can happen when the Congress is not representative of the party in power, that is, if the Congress is not made up of a majority of members belonging to the political party of the current president. This was the case in 2015 with the 114th Congress of the United States when President Obama, who is a Democrat, found himself having to work with a Republican Congress. When Congress goes against what the President proposes, the President can then decide to use his executive power to pass legislation without it being able to be challenged or overturned by Congress. Thus, this is what Obama chose to do between late 2014 and early 2017 when a majority conservative and relatively recalcitrant Congress was unwilling to move the issue of Cuba and the embargo positively, or at least not quickly enough. Once the negotiations were over and diplomatic relations had been restored to a certain level, opening the way for more concrete actions that could have a real impact on the Cuban population, Obama decided to use his executive power to pass a series of new regulations.These regulations affected various areas of activity such as tourism, telecommunications and religion, which we will develop in more detail in the following section. One of the goals of using the executive branch was to anchor these new regulations as permanently as possible, and another was to allow for a rapidity of action otherwise impossible to achieve through Congress. This last point was all the more important as Obama was coming to the end of his second term and therefore his last

one, as the 22nd amendment of the American constitution forbids the accumulation of more than two presidential terms.

The search for a liberalization and an economic opening with Raul Castro and Barack Obama

Nevertheless, the liberalization of trade between Cuba and the United States could not be accomplished with the sole will of the Obama administration, it had to gain the confidence and support of Raul Castro, the current political leader of Cuba. Even if a restoration of economic relations and a relaxation of the restrictions that make up the embargo would benefit the Cuban economy much more than the American one. In order to achieve the objectives he had set, Obama, with the help of his administration, supported the establishment of a bi-lateral commission. Cuban and American delegations met to discuss a wide range of issues, and negotiations were held mainly in Washington or Havana. They addressed important issues such as immigration, human trafficking, drug trafficking, environmental problems, access to health care, coast guard interventions, human rights and health cooperation. As these negotiations began when the second term of its instigator was already well underway, they could only last 25 months (especially when we know Trump's position towards Latin American countries). These 25 months were nevertheless very productive, as 23 bilateral agreements were reached, based on issues of mutual interest such as those mentioned above, and allowed for the liberalization of the telecommunications sector on the island of Cuba, as well as a revival of tourism, even if it is still very much regulated.

The last two years of Obama's second term have therefore been very productive and bear witness to the progress made, thanks to which Cuba, for which the United States acted as guarantor, was able to take part in the 7th Summit of the Americas (SOA) held in Panama in 2015, a historic event, since Cuba had never been allowed to take part before. In addition, two other significant elements should be highlighted, the first being that thanks to the newly restored diplomatic relations, and after nearly 55 years, the embassies of both countries could be reopened in the opposite territories. The second is the abolition of the "wet foot/dry foot" policy (a policy that for nearly 50 years allowed Cubans to be welcomed in the United States if they managed to set foot on American soil, while all those intercepted at sea would be sent back to the island). Having been abolished at the very end of Obama's term, it had little impact on his presidency but will have a significant impact on the Cuban community in the United States and therefore on the Cuban-American electorate in the years to come.

How has the Cuban community in Florida developed since the arrival of the new generation of Cuban-Americans of immigrant background ?

This "wet foot/dry foot" policy was the starting point for what today represents 0.6% of the population of the United States, that is to say nearly 2 million people, we obviously want to talk about the Cuban-American community. Concentrated at 67% in the state of Florida, and more predominantly in Miami, this community is now undergoing significant changes. If what pushed the first wave of Cuban immigrants to reach the sunny shores of Miami in the 1960s was the escape from an authoritarian regime and the search for better living conditions,

today things are changing. These changes can be seen in the fact that the Cuban population is getting younger and younger and has different political views than their elders, which can be explained by the fact that the first waves of Cuban immigrants have had time to adapt, to start families, and therefore to give birth to a new Cuban-American generation.

A new generation born on American soil around 1980, that does not necessarily share their parents' animosity towards the Castro regime, and for good reason, they never lived it. Another change of mentality can be perceived through the question "Why Florida?" for the first Cubans to arrive on American soil, Florida was somehow imposed by its proximity to Cuba, for the following generations things are somewhat different. This feeling of belonging to a community well anchored in this peninsula will make this new generation not particularly seek to settle elsewhere, so it is a young generation of Cuban Americans who will, from the 2000s, seek to be heard and defend its political and economic interests through a united electorate that is gaining influence day by day.

To what extent have the Cuban-American Republicans played an important role in regards to the socio-political ties between the island and the United States ?

Since the 2000s, the Cuban electorate has gained in power, representing today more than the majority of the votes in Florida, winning the hearts of Cubans has become an important point in any US election campaign. The one who really stood out in this field is Obama, since he made Cuba a key element of his campaign. The figures speak for themselves, since a survey conducted among the Cubans revealed that in 2015, before Obama's official visit to Cuba, 51% of Cubans living in the United States were already in favor of normalizing relations, and 47% were also in favor of ending the embargo. In December 2016, at the end of his second term, a new study revealed that in one year Obama had managed to change the minds of a good number of Cubans, since from 51% to 56% in favor of normalization, and from 47% to 52% who supported the lifting of the embargo. These figures prove one important thing: the animosity of Cuban Americans towards the regime, once led by the man they called "Líder Máximo", is waning. Seeking to win over this public will therefore prove to be important for each presidential candidate, and to win over this public, the various candidates will seek to make promises that respond to the demands of this electorate. These demands logically reflect the opinion of Cubans living in Florida over the issue of future relations they would like to see established between the two countries, such as a lifting of the embargo or a normalization of socio-political relations as revealed by the polls conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International.

The power of Cubans in America is not limited to the United States and extends to Cuba through what can be linked to lobbying, a very common practice in the United States that consists of putting pressure on politicians in order to achieve a specific objective. Moreover, it is important to note that, economically speaking, this community is prosperous, unlike other migrant communities, Cubans are now well established in the economy and therefore possess significant socio-economic power. It can almost be said that Cubans living in the United States have greater decision-making power regarding Cuba's foreign policies than the ones living in Cuba, since they can influence the main obstacle to Cuba's development, the

United States. If there is anyone who can trigger the beginning of the end of the embargo and a normalization of relations, it is them.

As we have observed, there have been some major actors involved in the relationship between Cuba and the United States, like the Cuban community in Florida for instance. They played a primordial role in the evolution of the relationship between the two countries. Besides them, we are going to observe that some States or even free trade agreements put a real pressure on those countries in order to shift their actions accordingly to obtain some kind of improvement.

I. B) Which are the international actors that applied pressure on the progress of Cuba-US relations ?

The relationship between Cuba and the United States doesn't only involve their bilateral relations or the States (like Canada) that surround them geographically. In fact, there are other determinant actors in the evolution of their relations, at an international scale. Regional agreements (in South America) and international institutions have been playing a major role in Cuba's integration in worldwide relations, and as a consequence, they have been causing the relationship between Cuba and the United States to grow. First of all, we have to take a look at the international actors that put pressure on the US-Cuba relationship at a continental scale.

To begin with, the Organization of American States (OAS) was founded on 20 April 1948 in order to generate solidarity and cooperation among the Western Hemisphere. Despite being a founding member of this organization, it was only in June 2009 that Cuba's suspension from this organization was lifted, while Cuba's Marxist-Leninist government had previously been considered incompatible with the principles of the OAS system, which is why it was excluded in the first place. Concerning Cuba's readmission to the OAS, the Foreign Minister of Ecuador, Fander Falconí, explained: « This is a new proposal, it has no conditions. That suspension was made in the Cold War, in the language of the Cold War. What we have done here is to fix a historic error »⁶. But in January 2014, the Cuban Foreign Minister, Bruno Rodriguez, said that « Cuba's position in relation to the OAS remains unchanged, we will not return to it »⁷. We can see that, in spite of the efforts made by the OAS's members in favor of Cuba's integration in this organization, Cuba still refuses to re-join it, probably realizing that joining it means that they will have to abide by its rules. As we can see, in the twenty-first century, the majority of Latin American countries have been looking to replace the OAS, which is why we can witness that there are a lot of other regional organizations and agreements that exist to counter the OAS hegemony. To this extent, the island of Cuba joined the Latin American Integration Association (ALADI) in 1999, which was established in August 1980 during the Treaty of Montevideo to encourage trade integration, and the economic and social development of the region.

6 Fander Falconí. "OAS votes to lift suspension of Cuba". Miami Herald. 3 June 2009.

7 Bruno Rodriguez. «Cuba will not return to the OAS». Havana Times. 24 January 2014.

This integration mechanism replaced the former Latin American Free Trade Association (ALALC in Spanish) and made the integration more evident on a regional level than on a bilateral one. This decision to integrate Cuba is seen as a break with the economic embargo that the United States held against Fidel Castro's regime. Cuba isn't left isolated anymore and can increase its commercial relations and cooperation with the ALADI countries. Also on the economic front, the existence of regional free trade agreements, like the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) for example, has been having an impact on the relationship between Cuba and the United States. In November 2004, various leaders of South America, and especially Argentina, attempted to make Cuba a member of this regional trade bloc, showing their willingness to integrate Cuba and counter the embargo. Effectively, Argentinian ambassador Raul Taleb explained that the government was working for the integration of Cuba in Latin America. Raul Taleb clearly defends Cuba's integration into regional bodies, he therefore puts pressure on other countries (like Uruguay for instance) to make them see that the island's integration could counter the effects of the United States' embargo.

Furthermore, from the point of view of the Cuban Foreign Minister, M. Pérez Roque : « The blockade is the main obstacle to Cuba's social and economic development and has caused losses to our country of over 72 billion US dollars »⁸. He also explained that it was a cruel policy that had no support within or even outside the United States. As we can notice, the pressure that the leaders, ambassadors or ministers of foreign governments exercise on the integration of Cuba on the international stage is really strong and shows an opposition to US domination. Therefore, institutions like MERCOSUR played an important role in the regional and international recognition of Cuba, even if the island is not yet part of it. Another well-known agreement that put pressure on the Cuban-American relationship is the Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM). In the Barbados Summit of December 2005, the members of CARICOM (Dominica, Grenada and Haiti to name just a few), agreed to deepen their cooperation. There were also embassies that opened on Cuba's territory at the same occasion. In addition to this, during the Caribbean Community Summit in December 2014 in Havana, its members called for an immediate lift of the embargo on Cuba. Nowadays, the 8th of December is celebrated as the « CARICOM-Cuba Day » because of the opening of diplomatic relations between the first four members of the organization and Cuba. What can be observed in these cases is that the members of agreements like MERCOSUR and CARICOM oppose themselves to the embargo of the United States on Cuba, and have been calling for its lift. This is significant because it highlights the fact that this situation is harmful for Cuba, and by condemning it they hope it will put an end to the embargo and that relations will get better. The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) also estimates that the economic, financial and commercial embargo is opposed to the spirit of the charter of the United Nations and to international rights. In the Summit of January 2013, this organisation asked for the embargo's lift and the end of the Helms-Burton Act. The blocus is opposed to the rules of the WTO (World Trade Organization) and it limits the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. By exposing these facts, they put pressure on the behaviour of the United States toward Cuba.

8 Pérez Roque. «Argentina determined to have Cuba in Mercosur». MercoPress. 5 November 2003.

Moreover, in a document elaborated by Carlos Antonio Villa Guzmán in October 2016, called « Las Relaciones de Estados Unidos y Cuba en el contexto del nuevo orden mundial »⁹ (US relations and Cuba in the context of the new world order), references are made to the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA). Cuba and Venezuela have founded this regional agreement in 2004. The author of this document also questions the political and economic domination that the United States have on Cuba, and shows that various actors and organizations are fighting against it. In the twenty-first meeting of the Political Council of ALBA-TCP (People's Trade Treaty) in March 2021, members asked to put an end to the US sanctions against Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. The foreign ministers and other representatives of the member countries effectively consider that these sanctions violate the human rights of the populations and more recently make their fight against the COVID-19 pandemic more complicated. Another important fact has been the acknowledgment of Cuba in the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). This project was created in 2010, and it explicitly excluded membership of the United States. The creation of CELAC represented a challenge to some previous projects that were dominated by the United States, like the OAS or the Summits of the Americas. This agreement helped facilitate the full integration of Cuba into hemispheric affairs, and its members stated their opposition against efforts made by the United States to isolate Cuba. This even contributed to President Barack Obama's decision in 2014 to further engage with the Cuban government.

Within the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States (ACP) which aims at a sustainable development, poverty reduction and a greater integration into the world's economy, Cuba is the only State that isn't signatory to the Cotonou Agreement (also known as the « ACP-EC Partnership Agreement ») which binds them to the European Union. This organisation was created in 1975, and Cuba became a full member in 1999. The objective is to integrate its Member-States into the global economy and the consolidation of stability in a democratic society. The ACP approved a resolution that condemned the US economic, commercial and financial blockade of Cuba. It had been stated that it was « preventing those states from exercising their legitimate right to determine their own political, economic and social system »¹⁰. It also demonstrated that it prevented Cuba from complying with its financial obligations to the ACP Group.

It also seems paradoxical to notice that, since 24 October 1945, Cuba is part of the United Nations. The island is also a founding member of the G77 (or Group of 77) which is an intergovernmental organization established in 1964 by developing countries. It provides the means for southern countries to promote their collective economic interests. The First South Summit had been held in Havana in April 2000. In the same way, Cuba's ascension to the leadership of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), at its fourteenth meeting in September 2006, shows the intent of counterbalancing the United States and the other rich nations on the world stage. Today, Cuba is a leader in the United Nations Human Rights Council, which

9 Carlos Antonio Villa Guzmán. «Las Relaciones de Estados Unidos y Cuba en el contexto del nuevo orden mundial». October 2016.

10 Pavel Jacomino. «African Caribbean Pacific Group condemns US blockade of Cuba». Radio Havana Cuba. Consulted on February 22, 2021 on 129556-african-caribbean-pacific-group-condemns-us-blockade-of-cuba

created some controversial debates about the fundamental freedoms that weren't respected and protected. In a report called « Freedom in the World» of 2020, Cuba obtained a score of 14 points out of a possible 100 with respect to civil and political liberties, the lowest score in Latin America. Thus, Cuba's reelection to the UN Human Rights Council in 2020 created a deep concern. Finally, there is an important pressure at international level concerning the political hostility of the United States towards Cuba. This opposition is clearly visible from the Inter-American community and the General Assembly of the United Nations Organisation, where 188 of the 192 member-countries voted against the embargo in October 2014. Moreover, in the Summits, there are threats of boycotts that testify of the solidarity towards Cuba and in order to reduce American influence in the region. For instance, the Venezuelan president from 1999 to 2013 Hugo Chavez, explained that the members of ALBA wouldn't attend the Sixth Summit of the Americas if Cuba wasn't invited. The threat of a collective boycott put the OAS that oversees this Summit and president Barack Obama to the test. By claiming Cuba's attendance at this Summit, Hugo Chavez and the members of ALBA implicitly require that Fidel Castro's regime takes full part in the OAS without applying to its democratic principles beforehand.

As can be noted, international institutions (United Nations Organization), regional agreements on the economic front (MERCOSUR, ALADI) and meetings held with government's representatives (Summits) are all together exerting influence on US-Cuba relations to promote regional stability and multilateralism. The goal of all these agreements is to obtain greater levels of autonomy facing US international influence. Cuban agreements with MERCOSUR for example have been important for the island's integration into hemispheric projects. All these projects, with the intention of integrating Cuba on the regional stage, condemn and call for the lift of the US embargo on the island, which puts pressure on the behavior of the United States toward Cuba. Nevertheless, besides this regional integration, it seems interesting to add that Cuba is not only participating in these relations, but it has progressively acquired a leadership role within them and even at a larger scale.

Secondly, besides those continental actors, there has also been an intercontinental and international pressure on the relationship between Cuba and the United States. In fact, outside of the relationship that Cuba has with its neighbors, there are more geographically distant actors that have also been playing a major role in the relationship of Cuba and the United States.

Indeed, Europe is showing its support in the process of social and economic reforms in Cuba. This can be observed through the Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement (PDCA) between Cuba and the European Union, signed on 12 December 2016. This international agreement mainly focuses on a political dialogue, cooperation and trade. Concerning the trade sector, the aim of the PDCA is to create a transparent atmosphere for economic operators and increase their capacity to create jobs. The European Union and Cuba are thereby searching to strengthen the United Nations as the heart of this multilateral system.

Also, they want to promote the strategic partnership between the EU and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). What is important to notice here is that an EU representation office was opened in Havana in 2003, which was upgraded into an EU Delegation in 2008. This highlights the fact that this bilateral cooperation is gaining more and more strength.

In the pie chart (see above) from the EEAS on the cooperation measures between Cuba and the European Union between 1988 and 2018, we can see that the bilateral relations count for 50% of all global measures.

This idea of the existence of a bilateral agreement with the European Union has been mentioned by Arturo López-Levy. In his analysis of June 2019 « Cuba y el gobierno de Trump: Retorno al conflicto e implicaciones para la relación triangular con Europa » (in English : « Cuba and the Trump government : Return to conflict and implications for the triangular relation with Europe »), this author talks about a triangular dynamic between Cuba and the EU. He also demonstrates the fact that it is a new element that differs from previous periods.

Furthermore, we can see that the United States' relationship with China changed under Barack Obama's mandates. Yet, there already had been some major changes even before his 2008 election. In fact, with China entering the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001 and the fact that this country is clearly in full boom, one can easily see that this had an impact on US-Cuba relations, because the fact that China joined the WTO emphasized the willingness of this country to access new trading partners. The United States expected in return that China got on board with their liberal-democratic order, which is not what happened. In consequence of this new economic partnership between the United States and China, the development of relations with Latin America doesn't represent a geostrategic or economic priority for the United States anymore. Actually, the attention of American entrepreneurs and politics is thus turned towards Asia. It was in fact Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama's first

Secretary of State, who led this policy change (calling it a « pivot») toward Asia. It was in November 2015 and by the Obama administration that the largest free-trade deal in U.S. history was pulled. This Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) linked 12 countries of the Pacific, but China was not on the list. Nevertheless, this project didn't get the congressional approval needed, which weakened the pivot between the United States and China. Also, since the start of the trade conflict between the US and China in 2018, the two countries have raised tariffs substantially on each other's exports, from 2.6% to 17.5% on Chinese imports into the US and from 6.2% to 16.4% on US imports into China. On the opposite, in this Trade War, Latin America has been given the chance to reorganize its export market. As a matter of fact, countries like Brazil or Argentina could benefit from the export of soybeans to China, because China stopped buying them from the U.S. We can thus observe that the increase of the links between Latin America and the Asian continent creates concern for the United States.

There are also other international actors that had an impact on the relationship between Cuba and the United States, like companies and businesses. As we can see, 77% of Cuba's business owners (wealthy families) were able to start their activities only because they received financial help from their friends and family that resided abroad. This data exposes the fact that the success of Cuban companies depended on the economic help perceived from the rest of the world. In the same way, we can observe that a lot of companies are willing to establish commercial relations with Cuba. We could ask ourselves if this motivation comes with good intentions by entrepreneurs... In a document written by George Carriazo Moreno in 1993¹², an important point is made about the intentions of North American entrepreneurs that began to be interested in establishing economic relations with Cuba. In fact, this sudden interest in Cuba is not a coincidence. After the 1980s, there had been a shift in the island's economy, with the fact that the US tightened its embargo and introduced some market reforms to hold back the deterioration of Cuba's economy. These included for example the legislation of the US dollar and the transformation of many state farms into semi-autonomous cooperatives. This economic changement made the Americans realize they were losing ground to their European and Latin-American competitors, which is why they had a sudden interest in Cuba's trade.

To conclude this part of the report, we can witness the impact that external and international elements had within the Cuban-American history. Along with local actors (regional trade agreements, Foreign Ministers), the international environment (China, Europe, but also companies) played a major role in the improvement of the Cuban-American relationship. They condemn the embargo by demanding Cuba's integration on the international stage. This has repercussions on how the United States are treating and putting a dialogue in place with the island. While presidents Obama and Castro took several steps to normalize bilateral relations, as we have seen with the expansion of trade organizations, we can say that we are coming closer to a kind of «warming of the relations».

12 Carriazo Moreno, G. (1993). Las relaciones económicas Cuba-Estados Unidos : una mirada al futuro. Estudios Internacionales. doi:10.5354/0719-3769.2011.15387

I. C) «Warm-up of the relations» : could this expression be applied to the Cuban-American context ?

What is Cuba's place in the rest of the world and how does it fit into the international scene?

Cuba is an island located 90km away from the coast of the US. They are a country rich in agrarian products and natural resources such as sugar, tobacco, refined fuels and nickel amongst its main resources. When the US was still on good terms with Cuba, they were their number one importer of Cuban products. The geographical proximity these two countries have made it a logical opportunity for trade. Despite their many resources, prior to the 1959 Revolution, Cuba wasn't seen as a «legitimate country», as many considered it to only be an exotic tropical island in other words only a touristic haven¹³ as many US citizens would go on vacation there to partake in parties, gambling and other various activities in brothels. This warped public image changed after the Revolution, it led to a shift in Cuba's public image where the international scene saw the credibility Cuba holds, since they managed to take down a military dictatorship. This feat, made them an example in Latin America and their revolutionary behavior led them to inspire other revolutionary uprising for social change in countries such as Venezuela, Nicaragua and Chile¹⁴.

Despite their success in the Revolution and its spread to Latin America, Cuba ultimately faced the disastrous fate of an embargo that was imposed onto them by the US, following the Cuban Missile Crisis. In 1962, Kennedy decided to cut all diplomatic ties with the island, leaving them in almost complete isolation from the world. The US stopped drastically importing Cuban sugar, which was the number one source of income on the island. Despite the decline of sugar production following the collapse of the Soviet Union, sugar production still held a large percentage in the global export of Cuba. In fact, in 2015 this sector was worth $378 million among the $1.4 billion export of the island¹⁵. This dependence on exportation of sugar to other countries made the country's economy fragile, an instance demonstrated following the embargo. As soon as its major importer heavily decreased trades, the isle was left with an immense loss of money due to price and demand fluctuation.

After the Revolution, Fidel Castro tried to elevate the island to an economy that was no longer focused on mono-production. His plan was to make the country self-sufficient so it no longer needed to be dependent on external markets¹⁶. This plan was meant to be put in place through the means of industrialization and a diversification of the economy. Ultimately, these attempts failed and Cuba had to go back to its production of sugar which were also

16 Boline, N. V. (2015). Fidel Castro's Grand Strategy in the CubanRevolution: 1959-1968. Papers & Publications:

decreasing at the time. This failure came from the inability of Cuban leaders such as Fidel and Raul Castro and Ernesto Guevara to manage the manufacturing goods they ordered from Czechoslovakia. Since these goods were ordered from outside the island, they had to be shipped and once they arrived they could only be moved out of the docks by the previously mentioned leaders. This led to equipment rusting as no one could move them and the only ones who could were too busy. In addition to this issue, parts that needed to be replaced were very hard to obtain due to the embargo and the refusal of the US to collaborate took a toll on the island.

Cuba tried to compensate these losses of sugar export by trading with the Soviet Union since both countries shared communist ideals, this made them a natural allyship. In January 1964, the Castro-Mikoyan agreements were signed allowing long-term agreements in regards to sugar export. The two country's trade revolved around sugar and fuels that they would exchange at negotiated prices which were beneficial for Cuba (they would sell their sugar at a higher price to the Soviet Union and receive oil at a lower market price). In 1972, the isle became a part of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance which gathered countries of the eastern-bloc. Since the end of the Soviet Union, Cuba has managed to find other partners to extend its trading pool. Among them there is Europe which is also their biggest trading partner. Their other main trading partners are Canada with 19.4%, Venezuela with 15.6% and China with 15.2% as of 2017¹⁷. Another opening in trades can be seen through the creation of the special economic zone in the port of Mariel in 2013, which has been attracting trade interests from countries such as Brazil and Singapore. In relation to commercial trade in maritime zones it is the main path in the Western Hemisphere. In 2014, Cuba even signed the Foreign Investment Law. No. 118, which is a measure put in place to regulate foreign investments through the law, was a way for the Cuban regime to attract investments from foreign countries.

Figure 2 : A pie chart illustrating Cuba's major import sources (2017) from Encyclopædia

Although Cuba has managed to gain back a part of its place on the global market due to the ressources it offers, the main step back it had to face were the sanctions and regulation imposed by the US. The Mutual Security Appropriations Act of 1951 had as a goal to demotivate countries to trade with Cuba by implementing sanctions to any country that tried to partake in such activity. It was welcomed with criticism from other countries that had commercial ties with Cuba. The sanctions insured that the lack of US aid toward Cuba wouldn't be compensated elsewhere. The Helms-Burton law enacted by Bill Clinton on March 12, 1996, seeks to implement international sanctions against Castro's government as part of a process to put into motion the transformation of the government into a democracy.

Cuba has faced many changes in the way it operates and the place it took on the international scene. Despite its failed attempt during Castro's regime to industrialize the country, the island has managed to improve its productivity along with its purchasing power through other means. To allow an increase in its productivity, the country liberalized the commercialisation of farming equipment and put in place bonuses to a defined group of professions. Among Cuba's biggest achievements is its health care system, its doctor to patient ratio is one of the highest in the world with 67.2 doctors for 10 000 citizens, a number much higher than in the US and the UK¹⁸. The country also has a high level of literacy which is at 99%¹⁹, due to its free education system that goes all the way to university. Cuba has also allowed its tourism sector to experience a rapid expansion by updating its tourism infrastructure (building new beach resorts). It is also important to note that in April of 2015, Cuba was invited to the Summit of the Americas in Panama which was a major step in the island's integration in international relations as it was the first time they were included in a premier gathering. It is also during this summit that the memorable handshake between Barack Obama and Raul Castro took place. Cuba's history shows that despite its hardships, it has still managed to move forward and isn't this helpless island the US tried so hard to portray as it has found alternatives to keep its economy going and has gathered a wide range of new trading partners from around the world.

Cuba and the US were once strong trading partners with more than two-thirds of foreign trade in the island being with the US during the 1950s. The US was a major client in Cuba's sugar market²⁰. An advantage that allowed the US to orchestrate the 1962 embargo. Prior to 1959, the economy of Cuba was controlled by American businesses and interests due to the Amendment Platt, a situation that would no longer be accepted after the Cuban revolution. In fact, Castro nationalized a lot of American businesses and agricultural land and redistributed

20 Bender, L. (1974). Cuba, the United States, and Sugar. Caribbean Studies, 14(1), 155-160. Retrieved April 10, 2021, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/25612594

it to the Cuban people to counteract the US' influence on the island. This led to a drop in trade down to 4 % between the two countries in 1961²¹, a situation implicating sugar quotas and higher custom taxes put in place by the US. All of those factors were ultimately followed by the 1962 embargo which heavily impacted the country's economy. The loss of such a big trade partner for Cuba led to higher costs in transportation and issues in regards to communication. The embargo led to restrictions in imports directed to Cuba such as essential parts in machinery that needed replacement. In 1963, Cuba's trade balance faced a huge amount of loss which was three times worse than the previous year²².

Since the nineteenth century, the main sectors that are a part of Cuban-US relationship are the agricultural sector, the industrial sector and the tourism exchanges between the two countries. During the time in which the US stopped trade with Cuba, the island redirected its commercial exchanges with Russia. During Ronald Reagan's presidency from 1981 to 1989, he implemented measures towards the tightening of restrictions to fuel the embargo against Cuba. He prohibited outside nations from selling American products and innovation to Cuba as it would divert the intentions of the embargo. Trade between the US and Cuba were reopened in 2002 during the time Georges W. Bush was in office. During his mandate, the two countries started to exchange food but Cuba could not do so on credit and they were only allowed an opening of trade with the US. Bush utilized «smart power» a mix between soft power and hard power by maintaining military operations, sanctions and the spread of US values. Those values were to impose into the island; democracy and a capitalistic economic model that can fit in with free trade.

After the subprime crisis that started in the US, Obama's presidency started, and with it came many new changes that opened up trade with Cuba. He touched upon this subject in a keynote address in Havana in 2016²³, where he was in favor of Cuba's continued liberalization in its economic and political domains. Commercial flights were opened up again between the two countries, an act that did occur in over 50 years, with the first plane taking off in August of 2016²⁴. After failed attempts at industrialisation during Fidel Castro's regime to fight back against Cuba's dependence on sugar production, Raul Castro decided in 2009 to set in motion a process of liberalization on the island²⁵, the first steps towards a capitalistic economy. This was in an effort to modify the country from a state-controlled economy to now a country that implements new reforms such as: the decentralization of the agricultural sector, the ease of restrictions small enterprises had to face, the creation of markets for real estate, the expansion of consumers' access to goods and the ability for Cubans to travel more easily. All of these implementations led to the rise of Cuba's private sector. These new opportunities were only possible for a select few fields, 127 in total. As of

22 Tsokhas, K. (1980). The Political Economy of Cuban Dependence on the Soviet Union. Theory and Society, 9(2), 319-362. Retrieved April 10, 2021, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/656859

2021, due to the 11% decrease in Cuba's GDP, Cuba has lifted its ban on private businesses in February²⁶.

With the progressive normalization of commercial exchanges between Cuba and the US through the many agreements and acts put in place, new opportunities for trade and investments are possible. Since 1999 Cuba could only import from the US a select few items such as food (Georgia is the main provider of chicken in Cuba²⁷) and some medicine but this category still faces restrictions. New actions can be taken by US business owners such as the sale of technological products (telecommunication equipment, software, hardwares), the sale of equipment to Cuba's private sector and the ability to rent buildings and hire Cuban employees in Cuba. As of today, the US is no longer the main exporter of goods from Cuba as many other countries have taken that spot. Nonetheless, commercial exchanges have been opening up and creating new opportunities between the two countries have been expected to get higher.

Economic integration revolves around a process that strives to unify economic policies amongst different states, to be able to function, this process uses the partial or total abolition of tariff restrictions (like customs duties, taxes) as well as non-tariff restrictions on the market place. In the case of Cuba and the US this process has been hard to reestablish ever since the severing of ties back in 1961, but this doesn't erase the efforts made in this direction and the few instances that highlight such activities. In 1999, through the Cuban Humanitarian Trade Act, the US allowed the export of a select few items to Cuba such as medical equipment and food products. In 2003, Bush brought about his act of Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, that allowed more trade between the US and Cuba, but it was also a tactic to reinstate more sanctions against the island (such as the inability to purchase US goods on credit).

Prior to the election of Obama and the period of normalization the US and Cuba initiated, data from calculations by the International Monetary Fund from 2008 illustrates that, between 1990 and 2007, US exports were higher in Latin America and the Caribbean as opposed to Africa and the Middle East²⁸. This «imbalance» in export can be explained by the strategic proximity for trade the US has in relation to the Caribbean and Latin America. In 2009, Obama eased restrictions in regards to the US travel ban against Cuba and in the same wave of easing measures he also allowed remittances between the US and Cuba. This latter measure allowed people living in the US to send remittances to Cuba, up to 500 dollars to individuals outside of one's family²⁹. These measures were put into place by the Office of Foreign Assets Control. After the announcement of the Cuban Thaw, on the 17th of

28 Partnership for the Americas Commission. (2008, November .). Rethinking U.S.-Latin American Relations. Report of the partnership for the americas commission

29 Sullivan, M. P. (2020). Cuba: U.S. Restrictions on Travel and Remittances. Congressional Research Service,

December 2014, there was a rise in visitors on the island which amounted to 3,52 million visitors, a total of 17,4% in comparison to the previous year³⁰. On the 16th of January 2015, the Cuban Assets Control Regulations and the Export Administration Regulations amendments by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control and The U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security was finally effective. These amendments allowed the removal of restrictions to allow Cuban businesses to collaborate with US business. In November of 2015, these amendments allowed the participation of about 50 American businesses³¹ during the Havana International Fair. Cuba benefited from a 7.4% growth of its economy at the end of 2015 in comparison to 2014³².

Through these numbers we can see that cooperation has mostly benefited Cuba and the US' relationship. Despite their differences in terms of their political ideologies, business seems to be a common ground both countries can settle for. With the rise of US Republican Governors in the US in favor of an ease of restrictions to allow more business with the island and Cuba's leaders implementing more measures in that direction, we can in fact talk about a hopeful future for the upcoming years for both countries in terms of their economical integration, especially since the election of Biden.

The main objective of normalization between the two countries is to go back as close as possible to a state of pre-embargo relationship. As the two countries once relied on each other for the trade of certain goods, so the desire to go back to such a state is understandable. Nonetheless, the heavy impact of the embargo and the many sanctions and quotas imposed by the US against Cuba made it harder to perceive a future in which both countries went back to a state of full normalization of their relationship.

In recent years, a few instances of collaboration between the two countries have brought about a sense of hope for their diplomatic future. Starting with Obama's presidency, this is when the process of normalization really took a positive turn. However, he was met with hardships especially at the end of his mandate, due to the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, it made the implementation of new measures more difficult and less achievable. This is why the White House was not able to fully lift the embargo, as it is not a part of its range of competences. Obama managed to try and weaken it by using the president's executive powers and instigating a bipartisan momentum to inspire the lift of the embargo. Despite the many obstacles the two countries's relationship have faced, there are still instances that make normalization a more realistic goal. An open posture for dialogue

31 Dr. Jacqueline Laguardia Martinez. Reconfigurations in Cuba - U.S. Relations and its impacts on Caribbean states. Conference organized by the Institute of International Relations of the University of Suriname Anton de KomÀ: Paramaribo, Suriname. (May 2016)

32 Dr. Jacqueline Laguardia Martinez. Reconfigurations in Cuba - U.S. Relations and its impacts on Caribbean states. Conference organized by the Institute of International Relations of the University of Suriname Anton de KomÀ: Paramaribo, Suriname. (May 2016)

can be seen through a range of different agreements both countries have signed ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The coalitions that were instigated by Cuba and the US revolve around three main topics: trade in the agricultural sector, migration and cooperation in the military field.

The agricultural sector is one of the most important ones in Cuba as it is the main revenue of the island³³. In 2001, during Georges Bush's mandate, Cuba was finally allowed to export its agricultural products³⁴. Despite this opening for Cuba's trade market, they were only allowed to trade with the US and weren't allowed to import any US goods by credit. An exchange that cost a lot for the isle. Although the US has mostly kept a rigid approach to trade with Cuba, many Governors have expressed their disagreements and many started to advocate for an opening of trade with the island. In September of 2015, Asa Hutchinson the Republican Governor of Arkansas, pointed out the loss in sales many farmers had to face³⁵. He went on to ask Congress to allow the US agri-food industry to sell food on credit to Cuba. His efforts were to allow the ease of restrictions, so it can allow the creation of new opportunities for the agricultural industry in the US. In October of 2015, through a letter written by nine Congressmen from all over the US (Virginia, Idaho, California, Minnesota, Washington, Montana, Vermont, Alabama and Pennsylvania), it was noted that if the country opened up trade with Cuba, they could benefit from an 11 million people market close to them³⁶. This attractive opportunity was seen as a way for them to strengthen the agricultural sector by expanding its trading pool. All of these instances have motivated the creation of a bipartisan coalition in the House of Representatives in December of 2015³⁷. It gathered ten members, each representing sectors such as agriculture, tourism, business trade, manufacturing... This bipartisan coalition was here to represent the growing need in the US to end the embargo, its reasons mainly revolved around the economic benefits it would bring.

Migration is another central topic when it comes to US-Cuban relationships. There have been important measures that were implemented in regards to immigration during Obama's mandate to change this unique dynamic. In fact, Cuba has benefited from special immigration laws soly implemented for them, such as the green card lottery implemented by Ronald Reagan or the «wet foot, dry foot policy» which came about during Clinton's mandate. The latter policy by Clinton was revoked in January 2017 by Obama following months of negotiation with the government of Cuba, as this policy stemmed from preferential treatment of Cuban immigrants. This decision wasn't only a way to treat «Cuban migrants the same way we treat migrants from other countries"³⁸ as Obama has stated during a press conference in the White House in 2017. It is also a way to initiate the regulation in the influx of potential

35 Piccone T., « U.S.-Cuba Normalisation: U.S. Constituencies for Change », IdeAs [En ligne], 10 | Automne 2017 / Hiver 2018, mis en ligne le 19 décembre 2017, consulté le 09 avril 2021. URL : http://journals.openedition.org/ideas/2107

38 The Office of the Press Secretary. (2017, January 12). Statement by the President on Cuban Immigration Policy. The

Millitarly, the two countries have also managed to find a mutual ground of agreement especially in the fight against narcotraffic. These military exchanges were initiated with Georges W. Bush and Fidel Castro in the early 2000s⁴⁰. These collaborative efforts with Cuba's security forces have also been used to ensure the protection at the US borders of drug trafficking and illegal immigration. Cuba has prohibited the smuggling of narcotics in its territorial waters and at its airports. In July of 2016, both countries signed agreements in the fight against drug trafficking⁴¹.

As mentioned through these couple of examples, some measures and implementations towards a state of normalization have been taken. Some earlier measures were nonetheless not pushed enough to explore their full potential such as the opening of trade for Cuba in 2001. It always seems like more can be done but due to the balance of power in the US, presidential desires can not always be fulfilled, as seen during Obama's mandate. He was not able to fully lift the embargo but he tried to use his executive power to weaken it.

Nonetheless, all of his efforts were swiftly deconstructed after Trump's mandate and his more conservative visions of diplomatic relationships. Although many of the previous efforts seemed to open up future perspectives in Cuban-US relationships, Trump's many revoked acts, enacted by Obama, made it hard to visualize such a future for both countries. With the arrival of J. Biden in power, this hopeful perspective seems to have come back as he was Obama's Vice President during his two terms. Despite this fact, the pressure he is now facing to decide on the future of policies towards Cuba is still ongoing.

How has Obama managed to handle the repercussions the embargo had on Cuba in an effort to build up ties again with Cuba?

«We have to be creative ... we have to be thoughtful ...and we have to continue to update our policies». Those were the words Obama had in respect to the topic of US-Cuban discussions during a Miami fundraiser in November of 2014. During his two terms, there was a reassessment in the US's behavior towards Cuba. In fact, it is during his mandate that things started to change leaving room for a process of normalization between the two countries. Amongst policies and actions B. Obama took to further open up the dialogue with Cuba, we can note the direct mail talks that were put in place in 2013⁴². This gave the opportunity to renew talks on topics such as immigration and even further open up new discussions about agreements revolving around search and rescue via air and maritime infrastructures. This illustrates the openness that president Obama has carried toward Cuba, a posture deemed by

40 Jorge I. Domínguez. Opciones para las relaciones entre Cuba y Estados Unidos durante la presidencia de Donald Trump. IdeAs : Idées d'Amériques. 19 diciembre 2017 [09/10/2020]. https://journals.openedition.org/ideas/2139.

42 SULLIVAN, Mark P. , Cuba: U.S. Policy and Issues for the 113th Congress, Congressional Research Service, CRS research prepared for members of committee and congress. Chapter: Obama Administration Policy and Issues in U.S.-Cuban Relations, p.25-p.37, July 31, 2014. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R43024.pdf

Amongst his most well-known implementations, there is the partial removal of travel bans, which has been the root cause of a lot of tensions. There was also the symbolic release of prisoners in both countries, accused of spying⁴⁴, a sign that showed the trust both countries were ready to put into their relationship. Commercial restrictions were also minimized, allowing Cuba's mostly agrarian economic system to build back its economy after decades of restrictions, quotas and sanctions. In regards to the usage of soft power, some actions were taken to instigate a softening of tensions through the media as well. In 2014, an agreement was created between the two countries that allowed the increase in the access to the internet in Cuba⁴⁵. This allowed streaming services such as Netflix to become accessible bringing with it the spread of US culture via television shows and films, but it also allowed US citizens to keep in touch with Cuban news.

In comparison to his predecessors, Obama was more open and ready to collaborate with Cuba. After the two countries agreed to start a process of normalization on the 17th of December 2014, also known as «the Cuban Thaw», it led to many symbolic events occurring between the two countries. For instance, Obama's handshake with Raul Castro, Fidel Castro's brother, during the Summit of the Americas in April 2015 was a historic moment. Cuba was even later on removed from the US's terrorism list on May 29th 2015⁴⁶. Also, the reopening of the US embassy on July 20th 2015⁴⁷, after it was closed back in 1961 when the US cut diplomatic ties with Cuba, allowed the US to reconnect administratively with the isle. Moreover, in early 2016, commercial flights were allowed by the US from Cuba⁴⁸, leading to the first passenger jet flight in August of that year, a feat that wasn't allowed in over fifty years.

Later that year, Obama's travel to Cuba on the 21st of March 2016, made him the first US president to go to Cuba since 1928 (88 years)⁴⁹, an important newsworthy and symbolic action that was meant to pave the way for less hostile relations between Cuba and the United States. Obama believes that «Change is going to happen in Cuba»⁵⁰, a feeling shared during

43 SULLIVAN, Mark P. , Cuba: U.S. Policy and Issues for the 113th Congress, Congressional Research Service, CRS research prepared for members of committee and congress. Chapter: Obama Administration Policy and Issues in U.S.-Cuban Relations, p.25-p.37, July 31, 2014.

44 Fullerton, J., Kendrick, A. and Broyles S. «Attitude change among U.S. adults after the Castro-Obama announcement: the role of soft power in agenda setting». Palgrave Communications [online]. March 14th 2017, 3 [30/11/2020] palcomms.2017.18 10 pages. https://doi.org/10.1057/

45 Fullerton, J., Kendrick, A. and Broyles S. «Attitude change among U.S. adults after the Castro-Obama announcement: the role of soft power in agenda setting». Palgrave Communications [online]. March 14th 2017, https://doi.org/10.1057/

a press conference with Raul Castro. During his travel, he had the opportunity to discuss and negotiate with Cuba's leader on topics such as trade, immigration and most importantly the future of the embargo. Even after the death of Fidel Castro at the age of 90 years old, Obama still expressed his support to Cuba by saying in a statement «they have a friend and partner in the United States of America.» It illustrates the bond Cuba and the US have created during Obama's presidency, allowing the United States to call Cuba a friend but without forgetting to mention that they are also a partner as economic trade is also important in their relations.

D. Trump retracted the US from relations with Cuba after his mandate (2017-2021). His implementation of stricter sanctions (travel restrictions, bans for travels from the US to Cuba, prohibiting the import of Cuaban rum and cigars, cultural trips to Cuba⁵¹) has made matters worse in terms of the opening of dialogue the two countries started during Obama's presidency. Trump considered the normalization of relations with Cuba by Obama's administration to be a «bad deal»⁵². This led him to bring back over 200 restrictions regarding matters such as; financial diplomatic ties, trade and travel⁵³. Now that Joe Biden has won the 2020 US election, some may have more hope in regards to US-Cuban relations, as Biden was Obama's vice president.

The possibility of a normalisation or even a «warming up» of bilateral relations seemed promising when Obama came into office. Nonetheless, Obama was still not able to fully lift the embargo, an instance that was most awaited by both US and Cuban citizens. His inability to do so was due to restrictions in his executive power. Despite the many milestones the two countries have achieved there are still some step-backs that can be seen in their relationship.

52 Hirschfeld Davis, J. (2017, July 15). Moving to Scuttle Obama Legacy, Donald Trump to Crack Down on Cuba. The New

II. What are the elements allowing us to talk about setbacks or disappointments concerning the expectations around the Cuban-American relationship ?