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Productivity-Inflation Nexus in Canada.'' Review of Economics and. Statistics,
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Guinée depuis 2003'', Université Kofi Anan.
KEYNES, J., M., (1936), Théorie Générale
de l'Emploi de l'Intérêt et de la monnaie, version
française de Jean de Largentaye (1977), Editions Payot, Paris.
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de Sonfonia n° 16.
LOUGANI, P. and SWAGEL, P. (2001), «Sources of Inflation
in Developing Countries», IMF Working Paper, WP 01/198
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Money», Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 4, pp. 103-124.
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édition- De Boeck Université, Paris, 650p.
MANKIW, G. N. (2003)- Macroéconomie, Traduction par
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NDIAYE, B. et YANKHOBA J. B. (2008), Les déterminants
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BCEAO sur l'inflation et la croissance dans l'UEMOA». NIS BCEAO n°
526, juin 2002.
NSENGIYUMA, C.(2011) Etude des déterminants empiriques
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PHILLIPS, AW., (1958), «The relationship between
Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom
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RAZAFIMAHEFA, I. F., (2012), «Exchange Rate Pass-Through
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ROMER, D. (1997)- Macroéconomie approfondie- Mc
GRAW-HILL/Edi. Science, Paris, 603p
Rapports annuels 2010 de la BCRG
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Monetarist Arithmetic», Federal Reserve Bank Of Minneapolis Quarterly
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SIMS, C.A (1980) «Macroeconomics and reality»,
Econometrica, 48, P.1-48
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TOURE, M. F. (2010) Monnaie change et inflation en
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surveillance multilatérale
ZONON, A(2003) Les déterminants de l'inflation au
Burkina Faso, CAPES, document de travail n°02/2003, décembre
![]()
Annexe 1 : Test de stationnarité
sur les variables à niveau
|
Null Hypothesis: LINF has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-1.905050
|
0.6220
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-4.374307
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3.603202
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-3.238054
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: LM2 has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-0.240156
|
0.9212
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.711457
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-2.981038
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.629906
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: LPIB has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=6)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-2.228741
|
0.2015
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.711457
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-2.981038
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.629906
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: LTCH has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=6)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-2.833789
|
0.1987
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-4.356068
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3.595026
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-3.233456
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
Annexe 2 : Test de stationnarité
sur les variables en différence première
|
Null Hypothesis: D(LINF,2) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-5.322428
|
0.0002
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.737853
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-2.991878
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.635542
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: D(LM2) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-5.049417
|
0.0004
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.724070
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-2.986225
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.632604
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: D(LPIB) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=6)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-4.015726
|
0.0051
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.724070
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-2.986225
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.632604
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: D(LTCH) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=6)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-4.643417
|
0.0055
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-4.374307
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3.603202
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-3.238054
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
Annexe 3:Test de cointégration sur les
variables
|
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hypothesized
|
|
Max-Eigen
|
0.05
|
|
|
No. of CE(s)
|
Eigenvalue
|
Statistic
|
Critical Value
|
Prob.**
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
None *
|
0.947536
|
76.63840
|
24.15921
|
0.0000
|
|
At most 1
|
0.431193
|
14.66956
|
17.79730
|
0.1391
|
|
At most 2
|
0.298535
|
9.219188
|
11.22480
|
0.1104
|
|
At most 3
|
0.002081
|
0.054155
|
4.129906
|
0.8488
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at
the 0.05 level
|
|
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05
level
|
|
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
|
|
Annexe 4:Estimation du modèle
|
Dependent Variable: D(LINF)
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 09/18/13 Time: 13:08
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1987 2012
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 26 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
4.426862
|
0.895840
|
4.941577
|
0.0001
|
|
D(LM2)
|
0.027079
|
0.089098
|
0.303921
|
0.7647
|
|
D(LPIB)
|
-1.121127
|
0.790456
|
-1.418330
|
0.1732
|
|
D(LTCH)
|
0.331969
|
0.093926
|
3.534380
|
0.0024
|
|
LINF(-1)
|
-0.331270
|
0.086256
|
-3.840565
|
0.0012
|
|
LM2(-1)
|
0.161944
|
0.061725
|
2.623646
|
0.0172
|
|
LPIB(-1)
|
-0.639451
|
0.139714
|
-4.576853
|
0.0002
|
|
LTCH(-1)
|
0.225211
|
0.089245
|
2.523516
|
0.0212
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.829224
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.122881
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.762811
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.091748
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.044683
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-3.130775
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.035939
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-2.743668
|
|
Log likelihood
|
48.70007
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-3.019302
|
|
F-statistic
|
12.48585
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.737499
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000009
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Annexe 5: Tests de validation du
modèle à correction d'erreur(ECM)
2 Test de Normalité
3 Test de Ramsey
|
Ramsey RESET Test:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
0.398183
|
Prob. F(1,17)
|
0.5364
|
|
Log likelihood ratio
|
0.601964
|
Prob. Chi-Square(1)
|
0.4378
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 Test de Breusch-Godfrey
|
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
0.248681
|
Prob. F(1,17)
|
0.6244
|
|
Obs*R-squared
|
0.374853
|
Prob. Chi-Square(1)
|
0.5404
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 Test de White
|
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
1.857725
|
Prob. F(7,18)
|
0.1371
|
|
Obs*R-squared
|
10.90521
|
Prob. Chi-Square(7)
|
0.1428
|
|
Scaled explained SS
|
5.797912
|
Prob. Chi-Square(7)
|
0.5635
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 Test de Arch
|
Heteroskedasticity Test: ARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
1.949941
|
Prob. F(2,21)
|
0.1672
|
|
Obs*R-squared
|
3.758941
|
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
|
0.1527
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7 Test de Chow
|
Chow Breakpoint Test: 2002
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: No breaks at specified breakpoints
|
|
Varying regressors: All equation variables
|
|
|
Equation Sample: 1987 2012
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
2.740380
|
|
Prob. F(8,10)
|
0.0689
|
|
Log likelihood ratio
|
30.17932
|
|
Prob. Chi-Square(8)
|
0.0002
|
|
Wald Statistic
|
21.92304
|
|
Prob. Chi-Square(8)
|
0.0051
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 Test de Cusum
9 Test de Cusum of square
Annexe 6: Données de
l'étude
|
ANNEE
|
INF
|
M2 en milliards de GNF
|
PIB réel en milliards de GNF
|
TCH US/GNF
|
|
1986
|
18.89200
|
46.80000
|
3521.560
|
333.4500
|
|
1987
|
24.04200
|
87.40000
|
3637.770
|
474.4000
|
|
1988
|
29.24800
|
104.5000
|
3867.240
|
591.6500
|
|
1989
|
35.77500
|
132.2000
|
4022.070
|
593.0000
|
|
1990
|
41.95700
|
156.1000
|
4195.980
|
660.8000
|
|
1991
|
53.39200
|
207.9000
|
4257.030
|
757.8000
|
|
1992
|
67.39100
|
255.3000
|
4396.340
|
903.0000
|
|
1993
|
67.84200
|
315.0000
|
4618.290
|
955.6000
|
|
1994
|
68.79100
|
304.7000
|
4803.050
|
977.7000
|
|
1995
|
72.83400
|
339.5000
|
5027.840
|
991.5000
|
|
1996
|
73.47100
|
350.0000
|
5287.120
|
1008.400
|
|
1997
|
74.52500
|
410.7000
|
5561.050
|
1099.900
|
|
1998
|
76.31000
|
435.9200
|
5816.030
|
1232.800
|
|
1999
|
79.00500
|
474.1300
|
6078.370
|
1387.400
|
|
2000
|
86.93900
|
585.4400
|
6253.720
|
1797.152
|
|
2001
|
91.22000
|
671.8400
|
6489.420
|
1949.863
|
|
2002
|
93.79400
|
800.9800
|
6759.830
|
1975.792
|
|
2003
|
100.0000
|
1083.310
|
6840.950
|
2000.000
|
|
2004
|
116.5220
|
1484.640
|
7001.880
|
2267.900
|
|
2005
|
148.4380
|
2049.200
|
7210.880
|
3640.000
|
|
2006
|
204.2270
|
3217.200
|
7390.920
|
5650.000
|
|
2007
|
230.7490
|
3403.900
|
7520.820
|
4179.250
|
|
2008
|
263.2750
|
4727.170
|
7892.120
|
4596.970
|
|
2009
|
276.6830
|
5945.120
|
7869.650
|
4773.528
|
|
2010
|
332.3690
|
10367.90
|
8022.110
|
5987.800
|
|
2011
|
398.0140
|
11325.65
|
8339.340
|
6141.120
|
|
2012
|
461.1150
|
11450.22
|
8691.040
|
6318.820
|
| 
