BIBLIOGRAPHIE
Ajayi, I, (1996) « An
Analysis of External Debt and Capital Flight in the Severely Indebted Low
Income Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa », in External Financing for
Low-Income Countries, Zubair Iqbal et Ravi Kanbur (éds) (Washington:
FMI).
Arcand J. L., Guillaumont P., Jeanneney S. G.
(2000) '' Reforme et croissance en Afrique sont-elles durables? '',
Document de Travail CERDI N°11, 27 pp.
Arnaud DEDEHOUANOU « Effets de la dette
extérieure sur la croissance économique au
Bénin» : FASEG/UAC
Artus P., Morin P. (1991) '' Macro
économie Appliquée'' Presses Universitaires de France,
Collection Economie, Paris.
Barro R. J. (1974) ½ The Ricardian
Approach to Budget Deficits ½ the Journal of Economic Perspectives,
vol. 3, pp 37-54.
Benedict C.; Rina B. et Toan Q. N. (2005)
« L'allégement de la dette peut-il doper la croissance des
pauvres? » ISBN 1-58906-464-X ISSN 1020-7724 Publié en avril
2005
Bourbonnais R. (2000)
«Econométrie», Collection DUNOD, 3ième
édition.
Borensztein, E. (1991) «Debt Overhang,
Debt Reduction and Investment: the case of the Philippines», Document de
travail FMI n° WP/90/77, présenté dans Finances et
Développement, pp. 25-27.
Blancheton B. (2004) ''Finances publiques de
la France face à la mondialisation: Résistance, transformation et
pistes de reforme'', Cahier GRES, N° 13, 17 pp.
Borensztein E. (1990) ''Debt overhang, Credit
Rationing and Investment ½ Journal of Development Economics 32½
pp. 315-335.
Borensztein E. (1991) ½ Debt overhang,
debt reduction and investment: the case of Philippines½ IMF WP/90/77
September, Washington D.C.
Bougouin A. S., Raffinot M. (2001),''
L'Initiative PPTE et la lutte contre la pauvreté'', EURIsCO
novembre, 19 pp.
Camara, M. (2006),
« l'évolution des 56 indicateurs de suivi-évaluation de
la Stratégie de Réduction de la Pauvreté (SRP) en
Guinée » GTZ, MEF.
Chavagneux (2001) « La lutte contre
la pauvreté ; les enjeux politiques d'un slogan », Politique
africaine, n° juin, pp 121-123
Clements, Benedict et al (2005) «
L'allègement de la dette peut-il doper la croissance? », Dossier
économique N°34 du FMI;
Claaessens. S. (1993) « Risk Management
in Developing Countries ». Document technique de la Banque mondiale no 235
(Washington : Banque mondiale).
Conte B. (2003) « les origines de
la crise de la dette extérieure, université de Bordeaux, pp4
Dittus P. (1989), « The budgetary
dimension of the debt crisis in low-income sub-Saharan countries», Journal
of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, n°145, pp. 358-366.
Eichengreen B., Richard P. (1986) ½Debt
and Default in the 1930: Causes and Consequences''European Economic Review,
Washington.
Geske D. and Hermes N.,
(2001) «The Uncertainty of Debt Service Payments and
Economic Growth of Highly Indebted Poor Countries: Is There a Case for Debt
Relief? » Helsinki United Nations University.
Gürbüz B., Raffinot M.
(2001) « Dette publique et investissements
privés. Le cas de la Turquie ». Economie Internationale
n°86, 2ème trimestre. CEPII
Idlemouden K, Raffinot M.
(2005) « Le fardeau virtuel de la dette extérieur
», Cahiers de recherche EURISCO, n°3, Université Paris
Dauphine
Johnson ALISON (2001), Key issues for
analysing domestic debt sustainability, Debt International Ltd, 22p.
Krugman P. (1988a) «
Financing vs. Forgiving a Debt Overhang. » NBER Working Paper n°
2486, Janvier 1988.
Lawin Kotchikpa « Analyse des
déterminants de l'endettement extérieur public des pays à
faible revenu : Cas du Bénin» Mémoire de fin de
formation pour l'obtention du Master en Economie publique et statistique
appliquée : IREEP
Léonce YAPO, (2002) « Les
déterminants de la dette extérieure des PPTE : cas de la
Côte d'Ivoire », World Institute for Development Economic
Research (WIDER), Discussion paper N°2002/14;
Létondé F. Brice H. (2004)
« Analyse de la soutenabilité de la dette extérieure du
Bénin ». Mémoire de maîtrise
sciences économique: FASEG/UAC.
Loubelo E. (2002) '' Croissance et
épargne face à l'endettement extérieur des pays en
développement: le cas de la République du Gabon'', Annales de
l'Université Marien N'Gouabi, Vol 3, Afrique édition.
Obadan, I. M (2004) « Foreign Capital
Flows and External Deb Perspectives on Nigeria, and LDCs Group». Ibaban
(Nigeria), National Centre for Economic Management and Administration
(NCEMA).
Ojo KENNETH O. (1989)
«Debt capacity model of Sub-Saharan African: Economic Issues and
Perspectives » Development Policy Review, vol 7. Washington.
OXFAM INTERNATIONAL (2000),
Make debt relief work: Proposal for the G-7, London
Pattillo, C, Poirson H. and Ricci L.,
(2002) « External Debt and Growth », IMF
Working-Paper n°02/69.
Pattillo C., Poirson H. and Ricci L.
(2004) « What Are the Channels Through Which
External Debt Affects Growth? ». IMF Working Paper WP/04/15.
Janvier
Piriou, J. P. (2003) « Lexique des
sciences économiques et sociales », Découvertes,
6ème édition, Paris
Raffinot M. (1998) «
Soutenabilité de la dette extérieure. De la théorie aux
modèles d'évaluation pour les pays à faible revenu »,
Document de travail du DIAL, n°1.
Sachs J. (1988) ½the debt overhang of
developing countries'', in Debt, Stabilization and development: essays in
memory of Carlos Diaz Alejandro, Oxford, Basil Blackwell.
![]()
TEST DE RACINE UNITAIRE SUR LES
VARIABLES
LDTPIB
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-3.085955
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-3.6752
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-2.9665
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-2.6220
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a
unit root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LDTPIB)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 07/09/10 Time: 03:06
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2009
|
|
Included observations: 29 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
LDTPIB(-1)
|
-0.498009
|
0.161379
|
-3.085955
|
0.0048
|
|
D(LDTPIB(-1))
|
0.079267
|
0.179877
|
0.440673
|
0.6631
|
|
C
|
26.58558
|
8.489976
|
3.131408
|
0.0043
|
|
R-squared
|
0.280969
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.660000
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.225659
|
S.D. dependent var
|
8.543750
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
7.518213
|
Akaike info criterion
|
6.970231
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
1469.612
|
Schwarz criterion
|
7.111676
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-98.06835
|
F-statistic
|
5.079893
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.079064
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.013731
|
LVTE
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-1.226812
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-2.6560
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-1.9546
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-1.6226
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a
unit root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LVTE)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 07/09/10 Time: 03:09
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1984 2009
|
|
Included observations: 26 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
LVTE(-1)
|
-0.103017
|
0.083972
|
-1.226812
|
0.2335
|
|
D(LVTE(-1))
|
-0.420103
|
0.186753
|
-2.249509
|
0.0353
|
|
D(LVTE(-2))
|
-0.125248
|
0.203387
|
-0.615810
|
0.5446
|
|
D(LVTE(-3))
|
-0.190807
|
0.203510
|
-0.937580
|
0.3591
|
|
D(LVTE(-4))
|
-0.479860
|
0.183359
|
-2.617054
|
0.0161
|
|
R-squared
|
0.436910
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.013192
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.329654
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.274794
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.224987
|
Akaike info criterion
|
0.025489
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
1.062998
|
Schwarz criterion
|
0.267430
|
|
Log likelihood
|
4.668646
|
F-statistic
|
4.073546
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.846654
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.013437
|
OUVC
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-3.355620
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-3.6959
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-2.9750
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-2.6265
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a
unit root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(OUVC)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 07/02/10 Time: 18:46
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
|
|
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
OUVC(-1)
|
-0.854275
|
0.254580
|
-3.355620
|
0.0029
|
|
D(OUVC(-1))
|
-0.014060
|
0.223718
|
-0.062847
|
0.9505
|
|
D(OUVC(-2))
|
-0.120136
|
0.197507
|
-0.608259
|
0.5492
|
|
D(OUVC(-3))
|
-0.177260
|
0.181986
|
-0.974034
|
0.3406
|
|
C
|
0.375312
|
0.115824
|
3.240364
|
0.0038
|
|
R-squared
|
0.527184
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.00625
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.441217
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.068257
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.051023
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-2.94748
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.057275
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-2.70751
|
|
Log likelihood
|
44.79108
|
F-statistic
|
6.132431
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.981555
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.001795
|
LSDEXP
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-4.580375
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-4.3382
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-3.5867
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-3.2279
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a
unit root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LSDEXP)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 07/09/10 Time: 03:12
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
|
|
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
LSDEXP(-1)
|
-1.270375
|
0.277352
|
-4.580375
|
0.0002
|
|
D(LSDEXP(-1))
|
0.486564
|
0.212012
|
2.294978
|
0.0321
|
|
D(LSDEXP(-2))
|
0.382425
|
0.185229
|
2.064610
|
0.0515
|
|
D(LSDEXP(-3))
|
0.141407
|
0.128139
|
1.103544
|
0.2823
|
|
C
|
42.74743
|
11.77601
|
3.630045
|
0.0016
|
|
@TREND(1979)
|
-1.470261
|
0.436280
|
-3.369997
|
0.0029
|
|
R-squared
|
0.614294
|
Mean dependent var
|
-2.000000
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.522460
|
S.D. dependent var
|
10.32613
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
7.135801
|
Akaike info criterion
|
6.961256
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
1069.313
|
Schwarz criterion
|
7.249220
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-87.97696
|
F-statistic
|
6.689134
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.993491
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000715
|
LTCH
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-2.569766
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-4.3082
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-3.5731
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-3.2203
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a
unit root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LTCH)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 07/02/10 Time: 18:52
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2009
|
|
Included observations: 29 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
LTCH(-1)
|
-0.399648
|
0.155519
|
-2.569766
|
0.0165
|
|
D(LTCH(-1))
|
0.248830
|
0.193782
|
1.284068
|
0.2109
|
|
C
|
92.89575
|
41.79676
|
2.222559
|
0.0355
|
|
@TREND(1979)
|
6.602758
|
3.001846
|
2.199566
|
0.0373
|
|
R-squared
|
0.210878
|
Mean dependent var
|
18.32955
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.116183
|
S.D. dependent var
|
77.22211
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
72.59768
|
Akaike info criterion
|
11.53518
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
131760.6
|
Schwarz criterion
|
11.72378
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-163.2602
|
F-statistic
|
2.226927
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.075819
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.109919
|
LTCROIS
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
0.088397
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-2.6560
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-1.9546
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-1.6226
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a
unit root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LTCROIS)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 07/02/10 Time: 18:55
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1984 2009
|
|
Included observations: 26 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
LTCROIS(-1)
|
0.010954
|
0.123917
|
0.088397
|
0.9304
|
|
D(LTCROIS(-1))
|
-0.750194
|
0.193245
|
-3.882088
|
0.0009
|
|
D(LTCROIS(-2))
|
-0.650958
|
0.181351
|
-3.589493
|
0.0017
|
|
D(LTCROIS(-3))
|
-0.368778
|
0.177829
|
-2.073777
|
0.0506
|
|
D(LTCROIS(-4))
|
-0.051196
|
0.156088
|
-0.327997
|
0.7462
|
|
R-squared
|
0.567326
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.388462
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.484912
|
S.D. dependent var
|
3.468178
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
2.489099
|
Akaike info criterion
|
4.832760
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
130.1079
|
Schwarz criterion
|
5.074701
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-57.82588
|
F-statistic
|
6.883849
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.395181
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.001052
|
LTDB
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-3.625350
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-3.7076
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-2.9798
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-2.6290
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a
unit root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LTDB)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 07/02/10 Time: 18:57
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1984 2009
|
|
Included observations: 26 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
LTDB(-1)
|
-1.818009
|
0.501471
|
-3.625350
|
0.0017
|
|
D(LTDB(-1))
|
0.870805
|
0.398389
|
2.185818
|
0.0409
|
|
D(LTDB(-2))
|
0.430400
|
0.336844
|
1.277743
|
0.2160
|
|
D(LTDB(-3))
|
0.292368
|
0.246758
|
1.184835
|
0.2500
|
|
D(LTDB(-4))
|
0.022514
|
0.197517
|
0.113986
|
0.9104
|
|
C
|
0.174387
|
0.047366
|
3.681672
|
0.0015
|
|
R-squared
|
0.620198
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.003735
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.525248
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.093037
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.064105
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-2.45742
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.082188
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-2.16709
|
|
Log likelihood
|
37.94655
|
F-statistic
|
6.531808
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.203523
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000939
|
LTINVP
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-1.243240
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-2.6522
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-1.9540
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-1.6223
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a
unit root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LTINVP)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 07/02/10 Time: 18:59
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2009
|
|
Included observations: 27 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
LTINVP(-1)
|
-0.046283
|
0.037228
|
-1.243240
|
0.2263
|
|
D(LTINVP(-1))
|
0.199346
|
0.156983
|
1.269855
|
0.2168
|
|
D(LTINVP(-2))
|
0.132731
|
0.160546
|
0.826745
|
0.4169
|
|
D(LTINVP(-3))
|
-0.259381
|
0.158720
|
-1.634202
|
0.1158
|
|
R-squared
|
0.207184
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.17377
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.103773
|
S.D. dependent var
|
1.464205
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
1.386152
|
Akaike info criterion
|
3.626894
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
44.19259
|
Schwarz criterion
|
3.818869
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-44.96306
|
F-statistic
|
2.003506
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.361855
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.141565
|
TEST DE DIFFERENCE PREMIERE
LVTE
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-4.515462
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-2.6560
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-1.9546
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-1.6226
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a
unit root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LVTE,2)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 07/02/10 Time: 19:20
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1984 2009
|
|
Included observations: 26 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
D(LVTE(-1))
|
-2.327662
|
0.515487
|
-4.515462
|
0.0002
|
|
D(LVTE(-1),2)
|
0.859382
|
0.440491
|
1.950964
|
0.0639
|
|
D(LVTE(-2),2)
|
0.710089
|
0.330578
|
2.148025
|
0.0430
|
|
D(LVTE(-3),2)
|
0.496782
|
0.184926
|
2.686377
|
0.0135
|
|
R-squared
|
0.790544
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.002115
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.761981
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.466423
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.227554
|
Akaike info criterion
|
0.017784
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
1.139183
|
Schwarz criterion
|
0.211337
|
|
Log likelihood
|
3.768811
|
F-statistic
|
27.67795
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.823795
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
LTCH
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-3.583023
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-2.6486
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-1.9535
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-1.6221
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a
unit root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LTCH,2)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 07/02/10 Time: 19:23
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1982 2009
|
|
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
D(LTCH(-1))
|
-0.945562
|
0.263901
|
-3.583023
|
0.0014
|
|
D(LTCH(-1),2)
|
0.047496
|
0.196244
|
0.242026
|
0.8107
|
|
R-squared
|
0.451881
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.796714
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.430799
|
S.D. dependent var
|
108.6325
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
81.95820
|
Akaike info criterion
|
11.71904
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
174645.8
|
Schwarz criterion
|
11.81420
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-162.0666
|
F-statistic
|
21.43493
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.969431
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000089
|
LTCROIS
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-3.991906
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-2.6603
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-1.9552
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-1.6228
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a
unit root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LTCROIS,2)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 07/02/10 Time: 19:25
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1985 2009
|
|
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
D(LTCROIS(-1))
|
-2.735245
|
0.685198
|
-3.991906
|
0.0007
|
|
D(LTCROIS(-1),2)
|
1.239933
|
0.559953
|
2.214351
|
0.0386
|
|
D(LTCROIS(-2),2)
|
0.784628
|
0.406129
|
1.931969
|
0.0677
|
|
D(LTCROIS(-3),2)
|
0.387179
|
0.251831
|
1.537454
|
0.1399
|
|
D(LTCROIS(-4),2)
|
0.291354
|
0.128948
|
2.259464
|
0.0352
|
|
R-squared
|
0.854822
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.46000
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.825787
|
S.D. dependent var
|
4.901615
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
2.045878
|
Akaike info criterion
|
4.446388
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
83.71237
|
Schwarz criterion
|
4.690163
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-50.57985
|
F-statistic
|
29.44055
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.705903
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
LTINVP
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-3.870039
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-2.6603
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-1.9552
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-1.6228
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a
unit root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LTINVP,2)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 07/02/10 Time: 19:29
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1985 2009
|
|
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
D(LTINVP(-1))
|
-1.589420
|
0.410699
|
-3.870039
|
0.0010
|
|
D(LTINVP(-1),2)
|
0.537250
|
0.318345
|
1.687636
|
0.1070
|
|
D(LTINVP(-2),2)
|
0.494413
|
0.243170
|
2.033197
|
0.0555
|
|
D(LTINVP(-3),2)
|
0.291759
|
0.226833
|
1.286228
|
0.2131
|
|
D(LTINVP(-4),2)
|
0.167241
|
0.177500
|
0.942206
|
0.3573
|
|
R-squared
|
0.595743
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.07544
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.514891
|
S.D. dependent var
|
2.032673
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
1.415752
|
Akaike info criterion
|
3.710055
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
40.08707
|
Schwarz criterion
|
3.953830
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-41.37569
|
F-statistic
|
7.368354
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.843026
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000811
|
TEST DE COINTEGRATION DE
JOHANSEN
|
Date: 07/09/10 Time: 03:18
|
|
Sample: 1979 2009
|
|
Included observations: 29
|
|
Test assumption: No deterministic trend in the data
|
|
|
|
|
|
Series: LDTPIB LSDEXP LTCH LVTE LTDB LTINVP LTCROIS OUVC
|
|
Lags interval: 1 to 1
|
|
Likelihood
|
5 Percent
|
1 Percent
|
Hypothesized
|
|
Eigenvalue
|
Ratio
|
Critical Value
|
Critical Value
|
No. of CE(s)
|
|
0.961186
|
227.0038
|
141.20
|
152.32
|
None **
|
|
0.811350
|
132.7838
|
109.99
|
119.80
|
At most 1 **
|
|
0.730885
|
84.41589
|
82.49
|
90.45
|
At most 2 *
|
|
0.520835
|
46.35002
|
59.46
|
66.52
|
At most 3
|
|
0.366963
|
25.01442
|
39.89
|
45.58
|
At most 4
|
|
0.249914
|
11.75487
|
24.31
|
29.75
|
At most 5
|
|
0.107415
|
3.415417
|
12.53
|
16.31
|
At most 6
|
|
0.004131
|
0.120041
|
3.84
|
6.51
|
At most 7
|
|
*(**) denotes rejection of the hypothesis at 5%(1%)
significance level
|
|
|
|
|
|
L.R. test indicates 3 cointegrating equation(s) at 5%
significance level
|
|
|
|
|
Test de normalité de JARQUE BERA sur les
résidus
|
JARQUE-BERA
|
1,766126
|
|
PROBABILITE
|
0,413432
|
MODELE DE LONG TERME PAR LES
MCO
|
Dependent Variable: LDTPIB
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 07/09/10 Time: 03:20
|
|
Sample: 1979 2009
|
|
Included observations: 31
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
-1.719890
|
13.85905
|
-0.124099
|
0.9023
|
|
LSDEXP
|
-0.089074
|
0.118546
|
-0.751390
|
0.4600
|
|
LTCH
|
0.019767
|
0.009903
|
1.996034
|
0.0579
|
|
LVTE
|
-21.61966
|
6.089689
|
-3.550207
|
0.0017
|
|
LTDB
|
61.03351
|
23.07628
|
2.644859
|
0.0145
|
|
LTINVP
|
1.509426
|
0.620032
|
2.434434
|
0.0231
|
|
LTCROIS
|
-1.660350
|
0.533391
|
-3.112818
|
0.0049
|
|
OUVC
|
105.7529
|
27.81999
|
3.801327
|
0.0009
|
|
R-squared
|
0.636637
|
Mean dependent var
|
51.61129
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.526049
|
S.D. dependent var
|
9.744773
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
6.708703
|
Akaike info criterion
|
6.862324
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
1035.154
|
Schwarz criterion
|
7.232386
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-98.36603
|
F-statistic
|
5.756806
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.079579
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000611
|
TEST DE WHITE
|
White Heteroskedasticity Test:
|
|
F-statistic
|
1.974851
|
Probability
|
0.096420
|
|
Obs*R-squared
|
19.63634
|
Probability
|
0.142030
|
TEST DE RAMSEY
|
Variables
|
Coefficient
|
T-statistic
|
Probabilité
|
Significativité
|
|
FITTED^2
|
-0.004297
|
-0,201455
|
0,8422
|
Non significatif
|
MODELE A CORRECTION
D'ERREURS
|
Dependent Variable: D(LDTPIB)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 07/09/10 Time: 03:26
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2009
|
|
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
4.180491
|
10.56427
|
0.395720
|
0.6983
|
|
D(LSDEXP)
|
-0.073339
|
0.088859
|
-0.825345
|
0.4230
|
|
D(LTCH)
|
0.037642
|
0.011188
|
3.364585
|
0.0046
|
|
D(LVTE)
|
-14.01593
|
5.906618
|
-2.372920
|
0.0325
|
|
D(LTDB)
|
34.96756
|
19.28288
|
1.813399
|
0.0913
|
|
D(LTINVP)
|
2.349736
|
0.794935
|
2.955884
|
0.0104
|
|
D(LTCROIS)
|
-1.069747
|
0.347164
|
-3.081387
|
0.0081
|
|
D(OUVC)
|
69.14272
|
18.20255
|
3.798519
|
0.0020
|
|
LDTPIB(-1)
|
-0.860276
|
0.180627
|
-4.762726
|
0.0003
|
|
LSDEXP(-1)
|
-0.170475
|
0.118112
|
-1.443339
|
0.1709
|
|
LTCH(-1)
|
3.17E-06
|
0.008492
|
0.000374
|
0.9997
|
|
LVTE(-1)
|
-26.49452
|
7.902862
|
-3.352522
|
0.0047
|
|
LTDB(-1)
|
98.61886
|
29.56400
|
3.335775
|
0.0049
|
|
LTINVP(-1)
|
1.934172
|
0.640802
|
3.018360
|
0.0092
|
|
LTCROIS(-1)
|
-1.268297
|
0.597106
|
-2.124075
|
0.0520
|
|
OUVC(-1)
|
87.92755
|
25.44747
|
3.455258
|
0.0039
|
|
R-squared
|
0.905757
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.619667
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.804782
|
S.D. dependent var
|
8.398058
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
3.710554
|
Akaike info criterion
|
5.764766
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
192.7549
|
Schwarz criterion
|
6.512071
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-70.47149
|
F-statistic
|
8.970129
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.191412
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000093
|
TEST DE CAUSALITE DE GRANGER
|
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
|
|
Date: 05/18/11 Time: 10:17
|
|
Sample: 1979 2009
|
|
Lags: 1
|
|
Null Hypothesis:
|
Obs
|
F-Statistic
|
Probability
|
|
LSDEXP does not Granger Cause LDTPIB
|
30
|
0.01079
|
0.91805
|
|
LDTPIB does not Granger Cause LSDEXP
|
0.03544
|
0.85208
|
|
LTCH does not Granger Cause LDTPIB
|
30
|
0.63787
|
0.43145
|
|
LDTPIB does not Granger Cause LTCH
|
0.16643
|
0.68652
|
|
LTCROIS does not Granger Cause LDTPIB
|
30
|
1.46287
|
0.23696
|
|
LDTPIB does not Granger Cause LTCROIS
|
1.56490
|
0.22168
|
|
LTDB does not Granger Cause LDTPIB
|
30
|
5.96955
|
0.02138
|
|
LDTPIB does not Granger Cause LTDB
|
0.03669
|
0.84953
|
|
LTINVP does not Granger Cause LDTPIB
|
30
|
1.08148
|
0.30759
|
|
LDTPIB does not Granger Cause LTINVP
|
2.27777
|
0.14286
|
|
LVTE does not Granger Cause LDTPIB
|
30
|
0.04521
|
0.83321
|
|
LDTPIB does not Granger Cause LVTE
|
12.1219
|
0.00171
|
|
OUVC does not Granger Cause LDTPIB
|
30
|
0.01897
|
0.89147
|
|
LDTPIB does not Granger Cause OUVC
|
2.33059
|
0.13848
|
|
ESTIMATION DE DONNEES
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Années
|
Ltcrois
|
Lsdexp
|
Ltinvp
|
Ldtpib
|
LTch
|
Lvte
|
Ltdb
|
Ouvc
|
|
1979
|
6,5
|
49,5
|
5,47
|
34,36
|
225,66
|
0,87
|
0,087
|
0,546
|
|
1980
|
6,8
|
14,9
|
5,22
|
33,81
|
212,72
|
0,8
|
0,05478
|
0,5319
|
|
1981
|
10
|
58,4
|
5,55
|
35,73
|
211,28
|
0,86
|
0,0199
|
0,598
|
|
1982
|
2,2
|
58,6
|
10,6
|
50,25
|
271,73
|
0,86
|
0,00209
|
0,5779
|
|
1983
|
-4,3
|
35,8
|
12,63
|
55,33
|
328,61
|
0,93
|
0,0059
|
0,4544
|
|
1984
|
7,9
|
23,4
|
14,53
|
48,91
|
381,61
|
0,96
|
0,0419
|
0,5052
|
|
1985
|
7,5
|
8,5
|
12,31
|
54,58
|
436,96
|
0,69
|
0,389
|
0,3895
|
|
1986
|
2,2
|
18,6
|
9,71
|
75,83
|
449,26
|
0,85
|
0,176
|
0,4928
|
|
1987
|
-1,5
|
24,59
|
5,84
|
58,1
|
300,5
|
0,03
|
0,0147
|
0,461
|
|
1988
|
3,4
|
30,24
|
7,15
|
61
|
297,8
|
0,21
|
0,0626
|
0,4587
|
|
1989
|
-2,9
|
48,75
|
5,57
|
49,87
|
319
|
0,37
|
0,0648
|
0,3835
|
|
1990
|
3,2
|
11,9
|
5,04
|
45,44
|
272,3
|
0,41
|
0,1364
|
0,425
|
|
1991
|
4,7
|
8,5
|
5,03
|
50,32
|
282,1
|
0,87
|
0,1016
|
0,4762
|
|
1992
|
4
|
12,63
|
4,05
|
47,33
|
264,7
|
0,14
|
0,081
|
0,4068
|
|
1993
|
3,5
|
16,38
|
4,43
|
49,89
|
283,2
|
0,33
|
0,0968
|
0,3872
|
|
1994
|
4,4
|
10,28
|
6,02
|
70,82
|
546,95
|
0,42
|
0,06665
|
0,5193
|
|
1995
|
4,6
|
8,02
|
7,22
|
64,93
|
499,1
|
0,29
|
0,1137
|
0,533
|
|
1996
|
5,5
|
6,76
|
5,94
|
62,69
|
511,6
|
0,47
|
0,1484
|
0,4522
|
|
1997
|
6,1
|
9,15
|
6,32
|
56,52
|
583,7
|
0,31
|
0,1062
|
0,4492
|
|
1998
|
4,5
|
8,68
|
5,35
|
53,27
|
590
|
0,33
|
0,09994
|
0,4449
|
|
1999
|
4,7
|
10,27
|
5,77
|
55,33
|
615,7
|
0,25
|
0,047
|
0,4496
|
|
2000
|
5,8
|
8,33
|
6,93
|
54,2
|
712
|
0,35
|
0,0608
|
0,4258
|
|
2001
|
5
|
4,76
|
5,45
|
53,18
|
733
|
0,3
|
0,0838
|
0,4304
|
|
2002
|
4,5
|
4,63
|
4,9
|
48,12
|
697
|
0,25
|
0,0511
|
0,4012
|
|
2003
|
3,9
|
3,78
|
6,57
|
40,27
|
581,2
|
0,66
|
0,0724
|
0,3822
|
|
2004
|
3,1
|
3,6
|
6,12
|
38,61
|
528,3
|
0,67
|
0,085
|
0,3473
|
|
2005
|
2,9
|
3,17
|
6,27
|
40
|
527,5
|
0,67
|
0,0987
|
0,4523
|
|
2006
|
3,8
|
3,01
|
4,9
|
52,68
|
522,9
|
0,6
|
0,078
|
0,54587
|
|
2007
|
4,6
|
3,58
|
5,882
|
52,77
|
702,54
|
0,556
|
0,11691
|
0,4153
|
|
2008
|
5,1
|
4,8
|
5,894
|
52,86
|
723,41
|
0,572
|
0,1288
|
0,4122
|
|
2009
|
5,8
|
4,6
|
5,908
|
52,95
|
744,28
|
0,587
|
0,103
|
0,4092
|
|
|
