ANNEXE 2 : ANALYSE DES VARIABLES ET RESULTATS DES
ESTIMATIONS
Tableaux 2: Test d stationnarité de Phillips et Perron sur
les variables des modèles
|
Null Hypothesis: D(LOG(MR)) has a unit root
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Exogenous: Constant
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Bandwidth: 0 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
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Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
|
-6.047581
|
0.0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
-3.689194
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5% level
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-2.971853
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|
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10% level
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-2.625121
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|
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Les déterminants de la demande de monnaie en
Guinée Page I
|
Null Hypothesis: D(LOG(PIBR)) has a unit root
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Exogenous: Constant
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Bandwidth: 0 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
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Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
|
-4.610393
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0.0010
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Test critical values:
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1% level
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-3.689194
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5% level
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-2.971853
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10% level
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-2.625121
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Null Hypothesis: D(LOG(TCN)) has a unit root
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Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
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Bandwidth: 15 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
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Adj. t-Stat
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Prob.*
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Phillips-Perron test statistic
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-17.16691
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0.0000
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Test critical values:
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1% level
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-4.323979
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5% level
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-3.580623
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10% level
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-3.225334
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Null Hypothesis: D(INF) has a unit root
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Exogenous: None
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Bandwidth: 4 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
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Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
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-4.422959
|
0.0001
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Test critical values:
|
1% level
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-2.650145
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5% level
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-1.953381
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10% level
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-1.609798
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Null Hypothesis: D(R) has a unit root
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Exogenous: None
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Bandwidth: 1 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
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Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
|
-3.860185
|
0.0004
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Test critical values:
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1% level
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-2.650145
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5% level
|
-1.953381
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10% level
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-1.609798
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Null Hypothesis: D(MR) has a unit root
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Exogenous: Constant
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Bandwidth: 2 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
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Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
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-5.182544
|
0.0002
|
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Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
-3.689194
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5% level
|
-2.971853
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10% level
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-2.625121
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|
Les déterminants de la demande de monnaie en
Guinée Page II
|
Null Hypothesis: D(CFP_PIBR) has a unit root
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Exogenous: None
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Bandwidth: 1 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
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Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
|
-4.508404
|
0.0001
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Test critical values:
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1% level
|
-2.650145
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5% level
|
-1.953381
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10% level
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-1.609798
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Null Hypothesis: D(CFG_PIBR) has a unit root
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Exogenous: None
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Bandwidth: 4 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
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Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
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Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
|
-2.403271
|
0.0182
|
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Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
-2.650145
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5% level
|
-1.953381
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10% level
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-1.609798
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Null Hypothesis: D(FBCF_PIBR) has a unit root
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Exogenous: None
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Bandwidth: 2 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
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Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
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|
|
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
|
-5.790062
|
0.0000
|
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Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
-2.650145
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5% level
|
-1.953381
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10% level
|
-1.609798
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Null Hypothesis: D(BC PIBR) has a unit root
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Exogenous: None
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Bandwidth: 2 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
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Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
|
-6.586227
|
0.0000
|
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Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
-2.650145
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5% level
|
-1.953381
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10% level
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-1.609798
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Null Hypothesis: D(TCN) has a unit root
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Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
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Bandwidth: 27 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
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Adj. t-Stat
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Prob.*
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|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
|
-24.05949
|
0.0000
|
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Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
-4.323979
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5% level
|
-3.580623
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10% level
|
-3.225334
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Les déterminants de la demande de monnaie en
Guinée Page III
Tableaux3 : test de cointégration
d'Engle et Granger sur la première fonction
Tableau 3A : test de stationnarité de Phillips et Perron
sur le résidu du premier modèle
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Null Hypothesis: RESID_COINT1 has a unit root
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Exogenous: None
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Bandwidth: 2 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
|
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Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
|
-3.960255
|
0.0003
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
-2.647120
|
|
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5% level
|
-1.952910
|
|
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10% level
|
-1.610011
|
|
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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Tableau 3B : test de stationnarité de Phillips et Perron
sur le résidu du second modèle
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Null Hypothesis: RESID COINT2 has a unit root
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Exogenous: None
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Bandwidth: 8 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
|
|
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Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
|
-5.885752
|
0.0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
-2.647120
|
|
|
5% level
|
-1.952910
|
|
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10% level
|
-1.610011
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
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Graphique 1: Résidu du
premier modèle 1
RESID_COINT1
|
10 8 6 4 2
0 -2 -4 -6
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|
|
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
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Graphique2: Résidu du
second modèle 2
RESID_COINT2
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1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0
-0.4 -0.8 -1.2
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|
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
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Les déterminants de la demande de monnaie en
Guinée Page IV
Tableau 4 : Résultat de l'estimation de
la relation de long terme du premier modèle1
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Dependent Variable:
LOG(MR)
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Method: Least Squares
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Sample: 1987 2016
|
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Included observations: 30
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Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
-11.60577
|
6.440164
|
-1.802092
|
0.0853
|
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LOG(PIBR)
|
1.763141
|
0.897426
|
1.964665
|
0.0622
|
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LOG(TCN)
|
-0.331747
|
0.245178
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-1.353084
|
0.1898
|
|
INF
|
0.088269
|
0.013682
|
6.451555
|
0.0000
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R
|
-0.022522
|
0.025132
|
-0.896147
|
0.3799
|
|
DUM91
|
-1.416248
|
0.603260
|
-2.347659
|
0.0283
|
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DUM05
|
-1.878333
|
0.630505
|
-2.979092
|
0.0069
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DUM06
|
-1.664656
|
0.647739
|
-2.569950
|
0.0175
|
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R-squared
|
0.691225
|
Mean dependent var
|
|
2.025313
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.592978
|
S.D. dependent var
|
|
0.877274
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.559685
|
Akaike info criterion
|
|
1.900294
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
6.891444
|
Schwarz criterion
|
|
2.273946
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-20.50440
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
|
2.019828
|
|
F-statistic
|
7.035611
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
|
1.45169
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000185
|
|
|
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Tableau5 : Résultat de l'estimation de
la relation de court terme du premier modèle 1
|
Dependent Variable: D(LOG(MR))
|
|
|
|
|
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Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1988 2016
|
|
|
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|
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Included observations: 29 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
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|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
0.041591
|
0.124284
|
0.334647
|
0.7412
|
|
D(LOG(PIBR))
|
1.581424
|
3.409286
|
0.463858
|
0.6475
|
|
D(LOG(TCN))
|
-0.000631
|
0.087981
|
-0.007174
|
0.9943
|
|
D(INF)
|
0.014321
|
0.009163
|
1.562993
|
0.1330
|
|
D(R)
|
-0.029985
|
0.018504
|
-1.620462
|
0.1201
|
|
RESID_COINT1(-1)
|
-0.279474
|
0.118795
|
-2.352565
|
0.0285
|
|
DUM91
|
-2.259121
|
0.303755
|
-7.437310
|
0.0000
|
|
DUM99
|
1.303059
|
0.292395
|
4.456502
|
0.0002
|
|
R-squared
|
0.845306
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.0405
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.793742
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.6191
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.281190
|
Akaike info criterion
|
0.5293
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
1.660429
|
Schwarz criterion
|
0.9065
|
|
Log likelihood
|
0.323966
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
0.6475
|
|
F-statistic
|
16.39318
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.0920
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
|
|
|
Les déterminants de la demande de monnaie en
Guinée Page V
Tableau 6 : Résultat de
l'estimation de la relation de long terme du second modèle2
|
Dependent Variable: MR
|
|
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1987 2016
|
|
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 30
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
-150.0568
|
37.42152
|
-4.009907
|
0.0006
|
|
CFP PIBR
|
169.6973
|
44.73177
|
3.793664
|
0.0011
|
|
CFG PIBR
|
196.2215
|
46.03496
|
4.262446
|
0.0003
|
|
FBCF_PIBR
|
91.31729
|
15.86833
|
5.754687
|
0.0000
|
|
BC_PIBR
|
80.94998
|
30.69478
|
2.637256
|
0.0154
|
|
TCN
|
-0.001404
|
0.000529
|
-2.653907
|
0.0148
|
|
INF
|
0.567507
|
0.097551
|
5.817555
|
0.0000
|
|
R
|
-0.362484
|
0.189536
|
-1.912480
|
0.0696
|
|
DUM91
|
-13.45107
|
4.390860
|
-3.063424
|
0.0059
|
|
R-squared
|
0.902056
|
Mean dependent var
|
11.08243
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.864744
|
S.D. dependent var
|
10.78989
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
3.968214
|
Akaike info criterion
|
5.837834
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
330.6811
|
Schwarz criterion
|
6.258193
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-78.56751
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
5.972311
|
|
F-statistic
|
24.17604
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.875223
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000001
|
|
|
|
Tableau 7 : Résultat de
l'estimation de la relation de court terme du second modèle 2
|
Dependent Variable: D(MR)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1988 2016
|
|
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 29 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
-0.109179
|
0.694505
|
-0.157204
|
0.8768
|
|
D(CFP_PIBR)
|
32.26024
|
31.33708
|
1.029459
|
0.3169
|
|
D(CFG_PIBR)
|
88.53681
|
38.51557
|
2.298728
|
0.0337
|
|
D(FBCF_PIBR)
|
38.83989
|
23.73442
|
1.636437
|
0.1191
|
|
D(BC PIBR)
|
43.80164
|
23.34807
|
1.876028
|
0.0770
|
|
D(TCN)
|
-0.000281
|
0.000245
|
-1.147060
|
0.2664
|
|
D(INF)
|
0.263964
|
0.094371
|
2.797086
|
0.0119
|
|
D(R)
|
-0.191070
|
0.172955
|
-1.104742
|
0.2838
|
|
RESID COINT2(-1)
|
-0.694578
|
0.203427
|
-3.414385
|
0.0031
|
|
DUM89
|
-8.919651
|
3.115252
|
-2.863220
|
0.0103
|
|
DUM91
|
-18.07739
|
3.260906
|
-5.543671
|
0.0000
|
|
R-squared
|
0.877627
|
Mean dependent var
|
-1.07703
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.809642
|
S.D. dependent var
|
5.922865
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
2.584147
|
Akaike info criterion
|
5.018365
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
120.2007
|
Schwarz criterion
|
5.536994
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-61.76629
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
5.180793
|
|
F-statistic
|
12.90914
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.265776
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000003
|
|
|
|
Les déterminants de la demande de monnaie en
Guinée Page VI
| 
