A-Congo before Kabila: The legacy of a fragmented
state.....................................65
B-Congo under Joseph Kabila: Geopolitical interests and
power struggle.................67
i-Four plus One Equals Zero: The Transitional Period
(2003-2006)..............................67
ii-The third
Republic.....................................................................................69
iii-National Elections
2006..............................................................................70
iv-The 2011
elections....................................................................................71
CHAPTER 5: THE AU LEAD
FACILITATION.................................................73
A-Run up to
facilitation....................................................................................73
i- Local actors in the Congolese electoral
crisis.......................................................73
1. The National Episcopal
Council.....................................................................73
2. The sitting President: Joseph
Kabila................................................................73
3. The late veteran Etienne
Tshisekedi................................................................74
4. The people's Favorite Moïse
Katumbi..............................................................74
5.The Activists:
Lucha...................................................................................75
6-The rest of the
opposition.............................................................................75
ii-International
actors....................................................................................75
1-Sub-regional
powers...................................................................................76
1.1-The Republic of South Africa
.....................................................................76
1.2-Uganda................................................................................................77
1.3Rwanda..................................................................................................78
2-The international support
group......................................................................79
3-International
powers...................................................................................79
iii- Chronology of the run-up to the
facilitation......................................................80
B-The AU lead facilitation 26th April to 1st
November..........................................81
i-Preparatory phase 26th April to 30th
August.........................................................82
ii- Negotiations take place 1st September to
18th October............................................85
CHAPTER 6: RESULTS OF
RESEARCH........................................................87
A-The Impact of Geopolitical interest on the AU lead
facilitation.....................................87
i-first secondary
hypothesis.............................................................................88
1. Foreign Policy dissonance induced by Geopolitical
interests...................................88
2. limited support from the APSA member
states...................................................89
2.1Structural
limitations................................................................................89
2.2Political
limitations.................................................................................89
3. The APSA intervention in Congo is not adapted to reach APSA
goals........................90
ii-Second secondary
hypothesis.........................................................................90
1. Some APSA states show preference to a party to the
conflict...................................90
2.The other parties distrust the process and refuse to
participate .................................92
iii-Results of doubly decisive
test......................................................................92
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