CONCLUSION
Notre étude a analysé l'impact du risque
politique sur les flux nets d'entrées d'investissements directs
étrangers dans 31 pays d'Afrique Subsaharienne sur la période
1984-2008. Nous avons utilisé l'indicateur agrégé du
risque politique de l'International Country Risk Guide comme proxy du risque
politique dans notre étude. Les résultats indiquent une relation
significativement et hautement positive entre cet indicateur et les flux d'IDE.
On a donc une relation négative entre le risque politique et les
investissements directs étrangers en Afrique Subsaharienne. En effet,
une augmentation d'une unité du risque politique en Afrique
Subsaharienne diminue les influx d'investissements directs étrangers de
0.10 unité toutes choses égales par ailleurs. En plus, le
résultat obtenu est robuste dans toutes les estimations de notre
modèle. La plupart des études se sont focalisées sur des
aspects particuliers du risque politique. L'avantage de notre modèle,
c'est que le risque politique prend en compte tous les aspects essentiels
(instabilité du gouvernement, conflits internes, corruption,.. ) qui
impactent sur la décision d'investissement d'un étranger dans les
pays d'Afrique Subsaharienne. Peu d'études ont traité l'impact du
risque politique sur les IDE en Afrique Subsaharienne. Cette étude a
donc permis d'avoir une idée précise de l'impact du risque
politique globale sur les IDE exclusivement en Afrique Subsaharienne. Aussi les
dirigeants Africains devraient prendre en compte tous les 12 composantes de cet
indicateur du risque politique pour pouvoir diminuer son impact sur les influx
d'IDE. Le résultat obtenu a donc l'avantage de ne négliger aucun
aspect dur risque politique.
Cependant, ce même résultat n'intervient pas sur
l'aspect microéconomique en Afrique Subsaharienne. D'autres
études pourraient être réalisées dans certains
secteurs particuliers de l'Afrique Subsaharienne tels que celui des mines et du
pétrole, des manufactures ou même celui de l'agriculture. En plus,
nous n'avons pu inclure certaines variables telles que celles relatives au
capital humain fautes de données suffisantes. Certains pays d'Afrique
Subsaharienne manquaient aussi de données suffisantes pour être
inclues dans l'étude.
Toutes ces remarques, prises en compte, pourraient apporter
d'autres informations sur le risque politique en Afrique Subsaharienne.
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