4.4 Transition
The transition toward future systems needs to be accomplished
gradually. A Cost Benefit Analysis should precede each step.
The FANS II committee developed the transition's guidelines (ICAO, 2002). These
encourage that the states introduce some of CNS components early enough in
order to get rapid return on investments. The conventional and the new system
will have to co-exist during the transition period to ensure
people become familiar and confident with the new technology before completely
relinquishing existing technology. The two systems will have to inter-operate
(interoperability). But the guidelines aim at minimizing this
period to the extent practicable. But because of great difference in the level
of ATM in various parts of the world and other factors that have to be taken
into account, a reliable time frame can not be specified.
Basing the transition to CNS/ATM systems on improvements in ATM and structural
and procedural changes is ideal. Airspace reorganisation is
required.
Commercial factors are also crucial and investments in
satellite based systems by ANSPs need to match that of domestic and
international customers. Moreover, integrity of the air navigation systems must
be maintained throughout the transition phase. Any removal of existing
navigation aids has to be done after consultations with the users. Planning and
implementation of improved ATM systems should also include
consideration of training needs. The aviation community (Air
operators, institutions and service providers, manufacturers, states) have to
cooperate to achieve these goals.
4.6 Affordability
With ICAO's ATM Operational Concept and Global Air
Navigation Plan, and IATA's ATM Implementation Roadmap, the
airline industry has the potential to implement a global airspace environment
that will bring substantial operational and financial benefits. However,
implementing CNS/ATM systems will cost the industry money as they will have
to:
1) Upgrade aircraft avionics systems
2) Train the crews for the new systems and procedures
Progress towards the new systems have been slow. This lack of
movement towards full FANS implementation was not due to any particular
technical problem, as the industry effort had focused primarily on development
of the technological case for CNS/ATM, with many resulting competing
technologies. The business case for CNS/ATM had primarily been addressed at a
cursory level, resulting in estimates of operational savings without details on
the benefit mechanisms. The ATM system must be considered as a set of
technologies; but it must also be considered as a business. The lack of
consideration of the economics of transition to the new operational concept has
slowed the pace of the implementation process (Allen et Al, 2005).
Airplane and ground system upgrades were slowed until they
were confident that the expenditures were justified. For an air carrier, a
business case evaluation would include, among other factors, assumptions about
the impact on its costs of expected changes in en-route charges and the impact
on revenues of changes in air carrier fares and rates, where these changes are
associated with the implementation of CNS/ATM. These impacts are in addition to
the direct investment costs and operating cost savings attributable to the new
systems and identified in the cost/benefit analysis. The impact of route
charges will depend on the outcome of the policies and evaluations of the
service providers. Assumptions about fares and rates will reflect competitive
pressures in air travel and freight markets.
Most of the basic practical guidance required relating to
organizational options, cost/benefit analysis, financial control, cost recovery
and financing has been developed following ICAO guidelines. The industry is
confident that the new systems will bring significant benefit to undertake such
investments, and is participating to trials and implementation programmes
worldwide in collaboration with other industry's stakeholders (i.e. joint
ASECNA and Air Afrique18 GNSS trials from 1994 to 2000).
For ASECNA, implementing new systems to improve the service
will require significant finance power. Between 2000 and 2010, installation and
commissioning amount to $US 276 million. This does not include interests on
loans or depreciation. A cost-benefit analysis for the 1995-2005 period shows
investments of $US 235 million including depreciation and interests. Expected
incomes amount to $US 259 million, essentially from air navigation charges.
Airlines' investments needs amount to $US 309 million. Expected comes amount to
$US 341 million.
Big companies will be able to upgrade their fleet. But many
small companies, which own old fleet, will not be able to afford it. ASECNA
will have to find adapted solutions for them.
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