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Les déterminants de l'épargne en RDC, une analyse macroéconomique de 1960 en 2020


par Ashile Aganze masheka
Université de Lubumbashi - Licence 2022
  

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Extinction Rebellion

III. THESE ET MEMOIRE

1. José MWANIA WAKOSIALes déterminants de l'endettement extérieur de la RDC Par Université de Lubumbashi -Diplôme d'études approfondies en économie 2013

2. Gloire Tristan MANSESA KIAKUMBA Epargne et bien être des ménages en RDC. Une analyse macro et microéconomique Université de Kinshasa RDC - Diplôme d'études approfondies en économie 2013

3. Pierre Alain YOUMBI (2003) Les déterminants de l'épargne des ménages au Cameroun Université de Douala - DESS en Gestion Financière et Bancaire

ANNEXES

Dependent Variable: LEPA

 
 

Method: ARDL

 
 
 

Date: 10/09/22 Time: 14:25

 
 

Sample (adjusted): 1964 2020

 
 

Included observations: 57 afteradjustments

 

Maximum dependentlags: 4 (Automaticselection)

Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC)

Dynamic regressors (4 lags, automatic): IDE INT INFL LPIBH LAID 

Fixedregressors: C

 
 

Number of modelsevalulated: 12500

 

Selected Model: ARDL(1, 4, 2, 4, 4, 1)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.*  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

LEPA(-1)

0.190828

0.136677

1.396198

0.1714

IDE

0.048297

0.028422

1.699277

0.0981

IDE(-1)

-0.052706

0.029493

-1.787093

0.0826

IDE(-2)

-0.022325

0.028798

-0.775217

0.4434

IDE(-3)

0.066306

0.026399

2.511665

0.0168

IDE(-4)

0.030675

0.026598

1.153299

0.2566

INT

0.003699

0.003686

1.003640

0.3224

INT(-1)

-0.005123

0.005470

-0.936591

0.3554

INT(-2)

-0.007839

0.004978

-1.574543

0.1244

INFL

-1.54E-06

2.03E-05

-0.076076

0.9398

INFL(-1)

3.85E-05

2.19E-05

1.761468

0.0869

INFL(-2)

8.25E-05

3.26E-05

2.534104

0.0159

INFL(-3)

4.06E-05

4.44E-05

0.915096

0.3664

INFL(-4)

5.80E-05

5.00E-05

1.159382

0.2541

LPIBH

0.097809

0.298415

0.327761

0.7450

LPIBH(-1)

-0.034325

0.284986

-0.120444

0.9048

LPIBH(-2)

0.287742

0.295956

0.972245

0.3376

LPIBH(-3)

-1.054619

0.330274

-3.193167

0.0030

LPIBH(-4)

0.880453

0.298621

2.948396

0.0057

LAID

0.851823

0.187181

4.550799

0.0001

LAID(-1)

-0.843589

0.180055

-4.685168

0.0000

C

0.722532

1.596932

0.452450

0.6537

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

R-squared

0.715648

    Meandependent var

2.323935

Adjusted R-squared

0.545036

    S.D. dependent var

0.572534

S.E. of regression

0.386180

    Akaike info criterion

1.219199

Sumsquaredresid

5.219719

    Schwarz criterion

2.007745

Log likelihood

-12.74718

    Hannan-Quinn criter.

1.525655

F-statistic

4.194606

    Durbin-Watson stat

2.304767

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000092

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

*Note: p-values and any subsequent tests do not account for model

        selection.

 
 
 
 
 

Estimation Command:

=========================

ARDL LEPA IDE INT INFL LPIBH LAID @

Estimation Equation:

=========================

LEPA = C(1)*LEPA(-1) + C(2)*IDE + C(3)*IDE(-1) + C(4)*IDE(-2) + C(5)*IDE(-3) + C(6)*IDE(-4) + C(7)*INT + C(8)*INT(-1) + C(9)*INT(-2) + C(10)*INFL + C(11)*INFL(-1) + C(12)*INFL(-2) + C(13)*INFL(-3) + C(14)*INFL(-4) + C(15)*LPIBH + C(16)*LPIBH(-1) + C(17)*LPIBH(-2) + C(18)*LPIBH(-3) + C(19)*LPIBH(-4) + C(20)*LAID + C(21)*LAID(-1) + C(22)

Substituted Coefficients:

=========================

LEPA = 0.190828120701*LEPA(-1) + 0.0482965886725*IDE - 0.052706292233*IDE(-1) - 0.0223250146078*IDE(-2) + 0.0663058592692*IDE(-3) + 0.030675140666*IDE(-4) + 0.00369917584358*INT - 0.00512296861414*INT(-1) - 0.00783861260891*INT(-2) - 1.542214889e-06*INFL + 3.85466193472e-05*INFL(-1) + 8.24914249404e-05*INFL(-2) + 4.0614553196e-05*INFL(-3) + 5.79565908347e-05*INFL(-4) + 0.0978088975718*LPIBH - 0.0343249173785*LPIBH(-1) + 0.287741511258*LPIBH(-2) - 1.05461893977*LPIBH(-3) + 0.880453409463*LPIBH(-4) + 0.851823411933*LAID - 0.843589098358*LAID(-1) + 0.722532222739

Cointegrating Equation:

D(LEPA) = -0.809171879299*(LEPA(-1) - (0.08681256*IDE(-1) -0.01144677*INT(-1) + 0.00026949*INFL(-1) + 0.21881626*LPIBH(-1) + 0.01017622*LAID(-1) + 0.89292799))

Ramsey RESET Test

 
 

Equation: UNTITLED

 
 

Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values

 

Specification: LEPA LEPA(-1) IDE IDE(-1) IDE(-2) IDE(-3) IDE(-4) INT INT(

        -1) INT(-2) INFL INFL(-1) INFL(-2) INFL(-3) INFL(-4) LPIBH LPIBH(-1)

        LPIBH(-2) LPIBH(-3) LPIBH(-4) LAID LAID(-1) C

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Value

df

Probability

 

t-statistic

 1.008901

 34

 0.3201

 

F-statistic

 1.017881

(1, 34)

 0.3201

 

Likelihood ratio

 1.681403

 1

 0.1947

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey

Nullhypothesis: Homoskedasticity

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

F-statistic

1.351749

    Prob. F(21,35)

0.2101

Obs*R-squared

25.52653

    Prob. Chi-Square(21)

0.2251

Scaledexplained SS

18.32878

    Prob. Chi-Square(21)

0.6281

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

 

Null hypothesis: No serial correlation at up to 1 lag

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

F-statistic

2.021279

    Prob. F(1,34)

0.1642

Obs*R-squared

3.198467

    Prob. Chi-Square(1)

0.0737

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

EPA

IDE

AID

INT

INFL

PIBH

EPA

1,000

0,195

0,248

0,068

-0,069

0,371

IDE

0,195

1,000

0,645

-0,167

-0,107

0,203

AID

0,248

0,645

1,000

-0,170

-0,110

0,285

INT

0,068

-0,167

-0,170

1,000

0,388

-0,392

INFL

-0,069

-0,107

-0,110

0,388

1,000

-0,197

PIBH

0,371

0,203

0,285

-0,392

-0,197

1,000


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