Politique de change et équilibre extérieur en rd congo, une analyse empirique par la modélisation var de 1988 à 2020

ANNEXE 4 : TESTS DE CAUSALITE

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 08/02/21 Time: 16:04
Sample: 1988 2020
Lags: 4
Null Hypothesis:	Obs	F-Statistic	Prob.
VSBC does not Granger Cause VRC	29	2.09872	0.1189
VRC does not Granger Cause VSBC		4.10577	0.0137
VTCH does not Granger Cause VRC	29	0.22899	0.9189
VRC does not Granger Cause VTCH		0.15167	0.9600
TCR does not Granger Cause VRC	29	0.20752	0.9312
VRC does not Granger Cause TCR		1.08421	0.3909
TINF does not Granger Cause VRC	29	0.16997	0.9512
VRC does not Granger Cause TINF		0.18269	0.9447
VTCH does not Granger Cause VSBC	29	0.02083	0.9991
VSBC does not Granger Cause VTCH		6.78246	0.0013
TCR does not Granger Cause VSBC	29	0.32443	0.8582
VSBC does not Granger Cause TCR		1.70128	0.1892
TINF does not Granger Cause VSBC	29	0.03392	0.9976
VSBC does not Granger Cause TINF		0.10246	0.9803
TCR does not Granger Cause VTCH	29	3.42932	0.0273
VTCH does not Granger Cause TCR		1.11178	0.3786
TINF does not Granger Cause VTCH	29	213.459	4.E-16
VTCH does not Granger Cause TINF		736.009	2.E-21
TINF does not Granger Cause TCR	29	0.32674	0.8567
TCR does not Granger Cause TINF		5.58647	0.0035

ANNEXE 5 : ANALYSE DES REPONSES IMPULSIONNELLES

Response of VRC:
Period	VRC	VSBC	VTCH	TCR	TINF
1	3.082126	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000
2	-1.197765	-1.193605	0.078907	0.424673	0.039031
3	-0.364339	-1.221962	0.856554	0.136204	-0.031368
4	0.234440	-0.247344	-0.158375	-0.034344	-0.015542
5	-0.055086	-0.027652	0.385420	0.235786	-0.000253
6	0.131991	0.417338	-0.013333	0.030631	-0.019934
7	-0.925374	0.475162	-0.159816	-0.096945	-0.005874
8	0.083345	0.147670	-0.073209	-0.154141	-0.021780
9	0.355246	0.505924	-0.167715	-0.060930	0.005941
10	0.186051	0.020715	-0.089686	0.025918	0.019927
Response of VSBC:
Period	VRC	VSBC	VTCH	TCR	TINF
1	-1.178597	3.378279	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000
2	-0.185622	-0.003340	-0.439143	-0.167096	0.008407
3	0.155590	1.002576	-0.466914	-0.420562	0.012057
4	-0.048023	-0.151344	-0.145847	0.071922	0.023087
5	2.548935	-0.239754	0.141894	0.009967	0.003959
6	-1.246012	-0.948840	-0.206237	0.191956	0.034806
7	0.134891	-1.210903	0.686596	0.072107	-0.019498
8	0.128160	-0.233154	-0.115380	0.044995	-0.014553
9	-0.363472	-0.002828	0.389873	0.213810	0.005152
10	0.114084	0.381199	-0.078966	-0.060658	-0.031465
Response of VTCH:
Period	VRC	VSBC	VTCH	TCR	TINF
1	-3.491586	1.113756	8.160529	0.000000	0.000000
2	-1.420594	-1.521451	-1.981789	0.782908	2.836590
3	-1.925339	-1.435043	7.675097	2.050877	0.434325
4	-0.743835	-3.639127	-0.981477	2.648555	2.641802
5	0.720695	-0.556548	0.586904	1.197908	0.255944
6	0.330157	-4.303511	1.748124	1.047385	0.160958
7	1.257805	-0.429458	1.148009	0.640059	0.026270
8	0.402166	-3.561983	2.005315	1.075017	0.072501
9	1.068829	-1.181946	1.379770	0.592384	0.184221
10	-2.605975	-1.146625	1.099272	0.769880	0.149698
Response of TCR:
Period	VRC	VSBC	VTCH	TCR	TINF
1	-0.003887	-0.008765	0.017994	0.014038	0.000000
2	0.008798	-0.001902	0.022032	0.014302	-0.001030
3	0.006672	-0.000358	0.012692	0.007286	-0.001469
4	0.009198	-0.012143	0.011790	0.006814	-0.000495
5	0.013532	-0.012283	0.010470	0.007984	-0.000207
6	0.009726	-0.011403	0.006925	0.005959	-0.000493
7	0.003859	-0.011482	0.003662	0.002006	-0.001094
8	-0.003749	-0.008244	0.002057	0.000727	-0.000861
9	0.000351	-0.001258	0.000656	-0.000167	-0.000778
10	-0.001163	0.005857	-0.002155	-0.001540	-0.000750
Response of TINF:
Period	VRC	VSBC	VTCH	TCR	TINF
1	-0.691009	0.247947	0.661128	-0.177892	0.347425
2	-0.955047	0.033418	0.917976	-0.122919	0.308817
3	-1.088803	-0.626374	2.438906	0.680771	0.494725
4	-0.067236	-1.208570	-0.715208	0.938914	1.008899
5	0.046551	-0.528341	0.605703	0.549155	0.121380
6	-0.067996	-0.774945	0.405545	0.333509	0.098062
7	0.360256	-0.485999	0.373467	0.252304	0.024462
8	0.407676	-1.227067	0.636933	0.344097	0.030506
9	0.170467	-0.331466	0.662391	0.272926	0.031906
10	-0.332291	-0.616261	0.444632	0.294799	0.081408
Cholesky Ordering: VRC VSBC VTCH TCR TINF