A.2.6. Test d'HAUSMAN
|
|
---- Coefficients ----
(b) (B)
fixed random
|
(b-B)
Difference
|
sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) S.E.
|
|
tb
|
|
|
-2.668933
|
-.4403834
|
-2.228549
|
1.445147
|
|
rcp
|
|
|
-10.61655
|
-4.849975
|
-5.766578
|
6.500655
|
|
rca
|
|
|
-2.257859
|
-1.456095
|
-.8017642
|
1.37325
|
|
ti
|
|
|
.168827
|
.0978091
|
.071018
|
.0461028
|
|
lpibh
|
|
|
55.33359
|
16.66222
|
38.67136
|
25.14527
|
|
rtsb
|
|
|
-.3441824
|
-.2476096
|
-.0965728
|
.0890871
|
|
rcb
|
|
|
-5.548435
|
-3.333568
|
-2.214867
|
1.677316
|
b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B =
inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg
Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic
chi2(7) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
= 2.60
Prob>chi2 = 0.9191
A.2.7. Estimation du modèle à effets
fixes par le MCG (Correction de
l'autocorrélation et
héteroscedasticité.
Page 78
|
Dependent Variable: ROA?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section SUR)
Sample: 2006 2012
Included observations: 7
Cross-sections included: 6
Total pool (balanced) observations: 42
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
|
|
|
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C -231.3448 36.06339 -6.414949
|
0.0000
|
|
TB? -2.684853 0.266667 -10.06818
|
0.0000
|
|
RCP? -10.60787 1.596660 -6.643783
|
0.0000
|
|
RCA? -2.090505 0.340971 -6.131025
|
0.0000
|
|
TI? 0.177883 0.019899 8.939463
|
0.0000
|
|
LPIBH? 59.34402 8.352353 7.105066
|
0.0000
|
|
RTSB? -0.426621 0.098407 -4.335271
|
0.0002
|
|
RCB? -6.605267 1.441235 -4.583059
|
0.0001
|
|
Fixed Effects
|
|
|
(Cross)
|
|
|
_BIAC--C -0.925375
|
|
|
_BCDC--C 2.995038
|
|
|
_RWB--C 0.962881
|
|
|
_TMB--C -0.500639
|
|
|
_BIC--C -0.221506
|
|
|
_PCB--C -2.310400
|
|
|
Effects Specification
|
|
|
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
|
|
|
Weighted Statistics
|
|
|
R-squared 0.982214 Mean dependent var
|
4.013215
|
|
Adjusted R-squared 0.974855 S.D. dependent var
|
8.413233
|
|
S.E. of regression 1.102910 Sum squared resid
|
35.27589
|
|
F-statistic 133.4611 Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.270032
|
|
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
|
|
|
Unweighted Statistics
|
|
|
R-squared 0.463572 Mean dependent var
|
1.346623
|
|
Sum squared resid 63.97153 Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.665958
|
|
|
A.2.8. Test de stationnarité sur les données
de PANEL
3. Taille de la banque
Page 79
1. sur la variable expliquée ROA
|
Pool unit root test: Summary
Sample: 2006 2012
Series: ROA_BIAC, ROA_BCDC, ROA_RWB, ROA_TMB, ROA_BIC, ROA_PCB
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1
Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
|
|
|
Cross-
Method Statistic Prob.** sections
|
Obs
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
|
Levin, Lin & Chu t* -9.18470 0.0000 6
Breitung t-stat -2.79449 0.0026 6
Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)
|
33
27
|
|
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -2.37411 0.0088 6
ADF - Fisher Chi-square 28.4763 0.0047 6
PP - Fisher Chi-square 22.2705 0.0346 6
Null: No unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
33
33
36
|
|
Hadri Z-stat 1.73150 0.0417 6
|
42
|
|
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asympotic
Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality .
|
|
4. Capitaux propres
Page 80
|
Pool unit root test: Summary
Sample: 2006 2012
Series: TB_BIAC, TB_BCDC, TB_RWB, TB_TMB, TB_BIC, TB_PCB
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0
Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
Balanced observations for each test
|
|
|
|
Method Statistic Prob.**
|
Cross-
sections
|
Obs
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
|
|
Levin, Lin & Chu t* -10.4248 0.0000
Breitung t-stat 2.01084 0.9778
Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)
|
6
6
|
36
30
|
|
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -4.17364 0.0000
ADF - Fisher Chi-square 34.0742 0.0007
PP - Fisher Chi-square 53.6759 0.0000
Null: No unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
6
6
6
|
36
36
36
|
|
Hadri Z-stat 4.43915 0.0000
|
6
|
42
|
|
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asympotic
Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
|
|
|
5. Crédits accordés
Page 81
|
Pool unit root test: Summary
Sample: 2006 2012
Series: RCP_BIAC, RCP_BCDC, RCP_RWB, RCP_TMB, RCP_BIC, RCP_PCB
|
|
|
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
|
|
|
|
|
Automatic selection of maximum lags
|
|
|
|
|
Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1
|
|
|
|
|
Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cross-
|
|
|
Method Statistic
|
Prob.**
|
sections
|
Obs
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
|
|
|
Levin, Lin & Chu t* -3.91961
|
0.0000
|
6
|
32
|
|
Breitung t-stat -0.75047
|
0.2265
|
6
|
26
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)
|
|
|
|
|
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat 0.00817
|
0.5033
|
6
|
32
|
|
ADF - Fisher Chi-square 13.3115
|
0.3468
|
6
|
32
|
|
PP - Fisher Chi-square 5.46231
|
0.9407
|
6
|
36
|
|
Null: No unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
|
|
|
Hadri Z-stat 3.52212
|
0.0002
|
6
|
42
|
|
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asympotic
Chi
|
|
|
|
-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic
normality.
|
|
|
6. Taux d'inflation (integré d'ordre
1)
Page 82
|
Pool unit root test: Summary
Sample: 2006 2012
Series: RCA_BIAC, RCA_BCDC, RCA_RWB, RCA_TMB, RCA_BIC, RCA_PCB
|
|
|
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
|
|
|
|
|
Automatic selection of maximum lags
|
|
|
|
|
Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0 to 1
|
|
|
|
|
Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cross-
|
|
|
Method Statistic
|
Prob.**
|
sections
|
Obs
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
|
|
|
Levin, Lin & Chu t* -7.71594
|
0.0000
|
6
|
34
|
|
Breitung t-stat 0.05190
|
0.5207
|
6
|
28
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)
|
|
|
|
|
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -3.26956
|
0.0005
|
6
|
34
|
|
ADF - Fisher Chi-square 35.5322
|
0.0004
|
6
|
34
|
|
PP - Fisher Chi-square 47.9115
|
0.0000
|
6
|
36
|
|
Null: No unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
|
|
|
Hadri Z-stat 3.53892
|
0.0002
|
6
|
42
|
|
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asympotic
Chi
|
|
|
|
-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic
normality.
|
|
|
7. La croissance économique
Page 83
|
Pool unit root test: Summary
Sample: 2006 2012
Series: TI_BIAC, TI_BCDC, TI_RWB, TI_TMB, TI_BIC, TI_PCB
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0
Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
|
|
|
|
Balanced observations for each test
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cross-
|
|
|
Method Statistic
|
Prob.**
|
sections
|
Obs
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
|
|
|
Levin, Lin & Chu t* -4.57215
|
0.0000
|
6
|
30
|
|
Breitung t-stat -3.22802
|
0.0006
|
6
|
24
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)
|
|
|
|
|
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -0.42347
|
0.3360
|
6
|
30
|
|
ADF - Fisher Chi-square 13.3803
|
0.3420
|
6
|
30
|
|
PP - Fisher Chi-square 12.9979
|
0.3692
|
6
|
30
|
|
Null: No unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
|
|
|
Hadri Z-stat 2.02412
|
0.0215
|
6
|
36
|
|
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asympotic
Chi
|
|
|
|
-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic
normality.
|
|
|
8. Taille du secteur bancaire (intégré
d'ordre 1)
Page 84
|
Pool unit root test: Summary
Sample: 2006 2012
Series: LPIBH_BIAC, LPIBH_BCDC, LPIBH_RWB, LPIBH_TMB, LPIBH_BIC,
LPIBH_PCB
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0
Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
Balanced observations for each test
|
|
|
Cross-
Method Statistic Prob.** sections
|
Obs
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
|
Levin, Lin & Chu t* 2.46385 0.9931 6
Breitung t-stat -2.55050 0.0054 6
Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)
|
36
30
|
|
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat 3.49520 0.9998 6
ADF - Fisher Chi-square 0.32658 1.0000 6
PP - Fisher Chi-square 0.03753 1.0000 6
Null: No unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
36
36
36
|
|
Hadri Z-stat 4.75030 0.0000 6
|
42
|
|
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asympotic
Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
|
|
9. Concentration bancaire
Page 85
|
Pool unit root test: Summary
Sample: 2006 2012
Series: RTSB_BIAC, RTSB_BCDC, RTSB_RWB, RTSB_TMB, RTSB_BIC,
RTSB_PCB
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0
Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
|
|
|
Balanced observations for each test
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cross-
|
|
|
Method Statistic
|
Prob.**
|
sections
|
Obs
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
|
|
|
Levin, Lin & Chu t* -7.88567
|
0.0000
|
6
|
30
|
|
Breitung t-stat 5.79252
|
1.0000
|
6
|
24
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)
|
|
|
|
|
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -3.18627
|
0.0007
|
6
|
30
|
|
ADF - Fisher Chi-square 35.7306
|
0.0004
|
6
|
30
|
|
PP - Fisher Chi-square 37.1537
|
0.0002
|
6
|
30
|
|
Null: No unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
|
|
|
Hadri Z-stat 5.47723
|
0.0000
|
6
|
36
|
|
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asympotic
Chi
|
|
|
|
-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic
normality.
|
|
|
A.2.10. Test de Normalité
Page 86
|
Pool unit root test: Summary
Sample: 2006 2012
Series: RCB_BIAC, RCB_BCDC, RCB_RWB, RCB_TMB, RCB_BIC, RCB_PCB
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic selection of lags based on SIC: 0
Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
Balanced observations for each test
|
|
|
|
Cross-
Method Statistic Prob.** sections
|
Obs
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
|
|
Levin, Lin & Chu t* -7.85328 0.0000
Breitung t-stat -3.69398 0.0001
Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)
|
6
6
|
36
30
|
|
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat -2.60201 0.0046
ADF - Fisher Chi-square 31.3199 0.0018
PP - Fisher Chi-square 42.5336 0.0000
Null: No unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
6
6
6
|
36
36
36
|
|
Hadri Z-stat 5.47723 0.0000
|
6
|
42
|
|
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asympotic
Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
|
|
|
A.2.9. Correlation ROA ROE
| ROA ROE
+
ROA | 1.0000
ROE | 0.8729 1.0000
Page 87
A.3. Les Graphiques
2006 2008 2010 2012
annee
2006 2008 2010 2012
annee
id = BCDC id = BIAC
id = BIC id = PROCREDIT
id = RAWBANK id = TMB
id = BCDC id = BIAC
id = BIC id = PROCREDIT
id = RAWBANK id = TMB
2006 2008 2010 2012
annee
2006 2008 2010 2012
annee
id = BCDC id = BIAC
id = BIC id = PROCREDIT
id = RAWBANK id = TMB
id = BCDC id = BIAC
id = BIC id = PROCREDIT
id = RAWBANK id = TMB
2006 2008 2010 2012
annee
id = BCDC id = BIAC
id = BIC id = PROCREDIT
id = RAWBANK id = TMB
Skewness/Kurtosis tests for Normality
joint
Variable | Pr(Skewness) Pr(Kurtosis) adj chi2(2) Prob>chi2
+
id | 1.000 0.001 9.76 0.0076
Page 88
DONNEES ET LISTES DES
TABLEAUX, GRAPHIQUES
ET ABREVIATIONS
|
? LISTE DES GRAPHIQUES
Page 89
|
Graphique 1.1.
|
Finance directe et indirecte
|
|
Graphique 2.1.
|
Evolution de nombre des banques commerciales en RDC
|
|
Graphique 2.2.
|
Répartition des crédits par terme
|
|
Graphique 2.3.
|
Evolution des dépôts et crédits
|
|
Graphique 3.1.
|
Evolution de la rentabilité exprimée en ROA
|
|
Graphique 3.2.
|
Evolutions des différentes variables
|
? LISTE DES TABLEAUX
|
Tableau 2.1.
|
Evolution des banques commerciales en RDC
|
|
Tableau 2.2.
|
Evolution du taux d'intermédiation bancaire
|
|
Tableau 2.3.
|
Evolution du taux de circulation fiduciaire hors banques
|
|
Tableau 2.4.
|
Répartition des crédits par terme
|
|
Tableau 2.5.
|
Évolution des dépôts et crédits du
système bancaire (en milliards de CDF)
|
|
Tableau 2.6.
|
Localisation des banques
|
|
Tableau 3.1.
|
Tableau des variables utilisées
|
|
Tableau 3.2.
|
Prédiction Théorique des signes attendus
|
|
Tableau 3.3.
|
Statistiques descriptives
|
|
Tableau 3.4.
|
Test de la stationnarité en données de panel
|
|
Tableau 3.5.
|
Résultat de L'estimation
|
|
Tableau 3.6.
|
Classement des banques selon le critère de la performance
[Fixed Effects (Cross)]
|
? LISTES DES SIGLES ET ABREVIATIONS
|
ADF
|
Augmented Dickey Fuller
|
|
BCC
|
banque centrale du Congo
|
|
CDF
|
Franc congolais
|
|
FASEG
|
Faculté des sciences économiques et de gestion
|
|
MCG
|
Moindres carrées généralisées
|
|
MCO
|
Moindres carrées ordinaires
|
|
NZ
|
Nouveau Zaïre
|
|
PME
|
Petites et moyennes entreprises
|
|
RDC
|
République Démocratique du Congo
|
|
ROA
|
return on asset
|
|
ROE
|
return on equity
|
|
|
