Financement de l'investissement public par emprunt

Annexe n°2 : résultats du test de rang par la méthode de JOHANSEN(1988)

Date: 09/03/10 Time: 22:45 Sample: 1990 2009

Included observations: 18 Series: FB SB DP TX

Lags interval: 1 to 1

Selected

(0.05

level*)

Number of Cointegrat ing

Relations

by Model

Data

Trend: None None Linear Linear Quadratic

No

Test Type Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept No Trend No Trend No Trend Trend Trend

Trace 1 1 2 2 4

Max-Eig 1 1 1 2 2

*Critical values based on MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999)

Informatio n Criteria by Rank and Model

Data

Trend: None None Linear Linear Quadratic

Rank or No Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept

Intercept

No. of CEs No Trend No Trend No Trend Trend Trend

Log Likelihood

	by Rank (rows) and Model (columns)
0	135.8532			135.8532	136.3220			136.3220			138.0155
1	158.9035			163.0563	163.4431			165.3581			166.6975
2	167.7742			172.7082	173.0945			179.8969			180.3693
3	168.6406			177.7097	177.9677			185.0390			185.4398
4	168.6890			178.4822	178.4822			189.7844			189.7844
	Akaike
	Informatio
	n Criteria by Rank (rows) and Model (columns)
0	-13.31703		-13.31703				-12.92467			-12.92467			-12.66838
1	-14.98928		-15.33959				-15.04924			-15.15090			-14.96639
2	-15.08603		-15.41202				-15.23273			-15.76632*			-15.59659
3	-14.29340		-14.96775				-14.88530			-15.33766			-15.27109
4	-13.40989		-14.05357				-14.05357			-14.86494			-14.86494
	Schwarz
	Criteria by
	Rank
	(rows) and
	Model
	(columns)
0	-12.52558		-12.52558				-11.93536			-11.93536			-11.48122
1	-13.80212		-14.10297*				-13.66421			-13.71641			-13.38351
2	-13.50314		-13.73021				-13.45198			-13.88665			-13.61799

3

	-12.31480	-12.84075	-12.70883	-13.01280	-12.89676
4	-11.03556	-11.48139	-11.48139	-12.09489	-12.09489

48

Annexe n°3 : résultat de l'estimation du modêle vectoriel à correction(MVCE)

Vector Error Correction Estimates

Date: 09/03/10 Time: 22:50

Sample (adjusted): 1992 2009

Included observations: 18 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]

Cointegrating Eq:	CointEq1
FB(-1)	1.000000
SB(-1)	-2.815925
	(0.51464)
	[-5.47166]
DP(-1)	-6.856285
	(0.68968)
	[-9.94129]
TX(-1)	0.375500
	(0.05171)
	[ 7.26113]
C	0.193698
Error Correction:	D(FB)	D(SB)			D(DP)		D(TX)
CointEq1	-0.742095	-0.026259			-0.025411		-0.155147
	(0.12773)	(0.07430)			(0.01973)		(0.30876)
	[-5.81003]	[-0.35343]			[-1.28769]		[-0.50248]
D(FB(-1))	0.518808	-0.035353			0.034082		0.443709
	(0.14477)	(0.08421)			(0.02237)		(0.34996)
	[ 3.58373]	[-0.41982]			[ 1.52381]		[ 1.26790]
D(SB(-1))	-2.641486	-0.506429			-0.166203		2.494670

49

(0.61592)

	(0.35828)	(0.09516)	(1.48891)
[-4.28866]	[-1.41350]	[-1.74657]	[ 1.67550]
D(DP(-1)) -1.166458	0.122962	0.410509	0.056438
(1.67762)	(0.97586)	(0.25919)	(4.05542)
[-0.69531]	[ 0.12600]	[ 1.58381]	[ 0.01392]
D(TX(-1)) -0.161677	-0.002946	-0.036709	-0.111143
(0.09802)	(0.05702)	(0.01514)	(0.23695)
[-1.64940]	[-0.05167]	[-2.42398]	[-0.46905]
C 0.003003	0.000239	0.001319	-0.007677
(0.01315)	(0.00765)	(0.00203)	(0.03178)
[ 0.22840]	[ 0.03128]	[ 0.64939]	[-0.24152]
R-squared 0.782515	0.186503	0.492014	0.421402
Adj. R-squared 0.691897	-0.152454	0.280353	0.180319
Sum sq. resids 0.037163	0.012575	0.000887	0.217169
S.E. equation 0.055650	0.032371	0.008598	0.134527
F-statistic 8.635264	0.550226	2.324541	1.747957
Log likelihood 30.10439	39.85693	63.72059	14.21617
Akaike AIC -2.678266	-3.761881	-6.413399	-0.912908
Schwarz SC -2.381475	-3.465091	-6.116608	-0.616117
Mean dependent 0.007222	0.000163	0.001611	-0.005500
S.D. dependent 0.100258	0.030154	0.010135	0.148589
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)	7.72E-13
Determinant resid covariance	1.52E-13
Log likelihood	163.4431
Akaike information criterion	-15.04924
Schwarz criterion	-13.66421

Financement de l'investissement public par emprunt/2009-2010 Annexe n°4 : relation de cointégration obtenues à l'aide de logiciel Eviews 5.

Estimation Proc:

EC(C,1) 1 1 FB SB DP TX VAR Model:

D(FB) = A(1,1)*(B(1,1)*FB(-1) + B(1,2)*SB(-1) + B(1,3)*DP(-1) + B(1,4)*TX(-1) + B(1,5)) + C(1,1)*D(FB(-1)) + C(1,2)*D(SB(-1)) + C(1,3)*D(DP(-1)) + C(1,4)*D(TX(-1)) + C(1,5)

D(SB) = A(2,1)*(B(1,1)*FB(-1) + B(1,2)*SB(-1) + B(1,3)*DP(-1) + B(1,4)*TX(-1) + B(1,5)) + C(2,1)*D(FB(-1)) + C(2,2)*D(SB(-1)) + C(2,3)*D(DP(-1)) + C(2,4)*D(TX(-1)) + C(2,5)

D(DP) = A(3,1)*(B(1,1)*FB(-1) + B(1,2)*SB(-1) + B(1,3)*DP(-1) + B(1,4)*TX(-1) + B(1,5)) + C(3,1)*D(FB(-1)) + C(3,2)*D(SB(-1)) + C(3,3)*D(DP(-1)) + C(3,4)*D(TX(-1)) + C(3,5)

D(TX) = A(4,1)*(B(1,1)*FB(-1) + B(1,2)*SB(-1) + B(1,3)*DP(-1) + B(1,4)*TX(-1) + B(1,5)) + C(4,1)*D(FB(-1)) + C(4,2)*D(SB(-1)) + C(4,3)*D(DP(-1)) + C(4,4)*D(TX(-1)) + C(4,5)

VAR Model - Substituted Coefficients:

D(FB) = - 0.7420946017*( FB(-1) - 2.815925358*SB(-1) - 6.856285382*DP(-1) +

0.3754998094*TX(-1)	+ 0.1936982852 ) +	0.5188081515*D(FB(-1))	-
2.641485615*D(SB(-1))	- 1.166457905*D(DP(-1))	- 0.1616767006*D(TX(-1))	+
0.003003112845

D(SB) = - 0.02625918959*( FB(-1) - 2.815925358*SB(-1) - 6.856285382*DP(-1) + 0.3754998094*TX(-1) + 0.1936982852 ) - 0.03535324498*D(FB(-1)) - 0.5064286696*D(SB(-1)) + 0.1229621857*D(DP(-1)) - 0.00294625504*D(TX(-1)) + 0.000239277496

D(DP) = - 0.02541073614*( FB(-1) - 2.815925358*SB(-1) - 6.856285382*DP(-1) + 0.3754998094*TX(-1) + 0.1936982852 ) + 0.03408226517*D(FB(-1)) - 0.1662027306*D(SB(-1)) + 0.4105087343*D(DP(-1)) - 0.03670928735*D(TX(-1)) + 0.001319198275

51

D(TX) = - 0.1551474211*( FB(-1) - 2.815925358*SB(-1) - 6.856285382*DP(-1) +

0.3754998094*TX(-1)	+ 0.1936982852 ) +	0.4437085931*D(FB(-1))	+
2.494670426*D(SB(-1))	+ 0.05643752706*D(DP(-1))	- 0.1111430568*D(TX(-1))	-
0.007676599228

52

TABLE DES MATIERES DEDICACE

REMERCIEMENTS

SOMMAIRES

INTRODUCTION GENERALE.................................................................. 1

PARTIE I. LE MODELE DE DETERMINATION DE L'IMPACT DE L'EMPRUNT SUR L'INVESTISSEMENT PUBLIC 11

CHAPITRE I. PRESENTATION DES VARIABLES DU MODELE 12

Section I. la variable endogene( dette publique) 12

Section II. les variables exogenes 13

CHAPITRE II. LA SPECIFICATION DU MODELE 18

Section I. Le modèle théorique 18

Section II. Le modèle à des fins d'estimation 19