ANNEXE
Annexe 1 : Synthèse des données
utilisés
|
Année
|
TINF
|
PIBR (en MBIF)
|
TD
|
TCH
|
M2 (en MBIF)
|
|
1980
|
2,5
|
361464,20
|
5,20
|
90,00
|
10 437,80
|
|
1981
|
12,2
|
338040,70
|
6,50
|
90,00
|
12 137,10
|
|
1982
|
5,9
|
360353,40
|
6,50
|
90,00
|
11 388,40
|
|
1983
|
8,2
|
342372,80
|
6,50
|
92,95
|
13 625,70
|
|
1984
|
14,3
|
351695,50
|
6,50
|
119,71
|
14 505,20
|
|
1985
|
3,8
|
397681,40
|
6,50
|
120,69
|
18 093,10
|
|
1986
|
1,7
|
386463,70
|
10,40
|
114,17
|
25 115,10
|
|
1987
|
7,1
|
366939,60
|
8,20
|
123,56
|
26 473,10
|
|
1988
|
4,5
|
381820,40
|
8,00
|
140,40
|
27 018,60
|
|
1989
|
11,7
|
398069,40
|
8,50
|
158,67
|
29 407,00
|
|
1990
|
7,0
|
405750,50
|
8,50
|
171,26
|
30 156,20
|
|
1991
|
9,0
|
406094,20
|
10,00
|
181,51
|
33 991,90
|
|
1992
|
1,8
|
444329,50
|
11,00
|
208,30
|
34 927,10
|
|
1993
|
9,7
|
406167,60
|
11,75
|
242,78
|
33 637,90
|
|
1994
|
14,9
|
432852,00
|
10,00
|
252,66
|
46 028,50
|
|
1995
|
19,2
|
391849,60
|
10,00
|
249,76
|
50 008,60
|
|
1996
|
26,5
|
265414,00
|
10,00
|
302,75
|
56 469,20
|
|
1997
|
31,1
|
263935,80
|
12,00
|
352,35
|
61 806,60
|
|
1998
|
12,5
|
274120,10
|
12,00
|
447,77
|
61 933,30
|
|
1999
|
3,4
|
301754,40
|
12,00
|
563,56
|
90 784,70
|
|
2000
|
24,3
|
269677,60
|
14,00
|
720,67
|
94 575,50
|
|
2001
|
9,3
|
265511,20
|
14,00
|
830,35
|
109 008,20
|
|
2002
|
-1,3
|
285730,70
|
15,50
|
930,75
|
139 659,30
|
|
2003
|
10,7
|
284979,20
|
14,50
|
1082,62
|
171 246,40
|
|
2004
|
8,3
|
305330,00
|
14,50
|
1100,90
|
217 137,90
|
|
2005
|
13,2
|
310750,10
|
14,50
|
1081,58
|
257 677,80
|
|
2006
|
2,7
|
346418,90
|
12,07
|
1028,68
|
301 558,50
|
|
2007
|
8,3
|
328163,50
|
11,12
|
1081,87
|
330 079,10
|
|
2008
|
24,5
|
342154,30
|
11,08
|
1185,69
|
443 117,80
|
|
2009
|
10,5
|
385668,20
|
10,00
|
1230,18
|
530 770,30
|
|
2010
|
6,5
|
407744,00
|
11,25
|
1230,75
|
638 098,20
|
|
2011
|
9,6
|
450760,99
|
14,34
|
1261,10
|
640 520,50
|
|
2012
|
18,2
|
468881,58
|
13,77
|
1442,50
|
708 053,00
|
|
2013
|
8,0
|
490403,25
|
12,50
|
1555,10
|
801 728,30
|
|
2014
|
4,4
|
513256,04
|
8,00
|
1546,70
|
883 059,60
|
|
2015
|
5,5
|
493239,05
|
9,82
|
1574,50
|
894 084,10
|
Sources : Auteur à partir des données des
rapports annuels et trimestriels de la BRB.
Annexe 2: Résultat de la règle
originale de Taylor
|
Dependent Variable: TD
|
|
Method: Generalized Method of Moments
|
|
Date: 04/17/18 Time: 12:06
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1985 2015
|
|
Included observations: 31 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
No prewhitening
|
|
Bandwidth: Fixed (3)
|
|
Kernel: Bartlett
|
|
Convergence achieved after: 41 weight matricies, 42 total coef
|
|
Iterations
|
|
Instrument list: TD(-2) TD(-3) TD(-4) TD(-5) GAP(-1) GAP(-2)
GAP(
|
|
-3)GAP(-4) GAP(-5) QINF(-1)QINF(-2) QINF(-3) QINF(-4)
QINF(-5)
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
1.225444
|
0.524743
|
2.335323
|
0.0279
|
|
TD(-1)
|
0.819369
|
0.031489
|
26.02065
|
0.0000
|
|
QINF
|
0.063668
|
0.025761
|
2.471503
|
0.0206
|
|
GAP
|
-5.050211
|
1.299237
|
-3.887058
|
0.0007
|
|
D86
|
4.954345
|
1.475557
|
3.357610
|
0.0025
|
|
D93
|
2.914597
|
1.168739
|
2.493797
|
0.0196
|
|
R-squared
|
0.596775
|
Mean dependent var
|
11.28387
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.516129
|
S.D. dependent var
|
2.336047
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
1.624973
|
Sum squared resid
|
66.01347
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.730364
|
J-statistic
|
0.169430
|
?
Annexe 3 : Résultant d'estimation de la fonction de
réaction de la BRB
|
Dependent Variable: TD
|
|
Method: Generalized Method of Moments
|
|
Date: 04/17/18 Time: 14:03
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1985 2012
|
|
Included observations: 28 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
No prewhitening
|
|
Bandwidth: Fixed (3)
|
|
Kernel: Bartlett
|
|
Convergence achieved after: 74 weight matricies, 75 total coef
|
|
Iterations
|
|
Instrument list: TD(-2) TD(-3) TD(-4) TD(-5)GAP(-1) GAP(-2)
GAP(-3)
|
|
GAP(-4) GAP(-5) QINF(-1)QINF(-2) QINF(-3) QINF(-4) QINF(-5)
|
|
TCH(-1) TCH(-2) TCH(-3) TCH(-4) TCH(-5) TMM(-1) TMM(-2)
|
|
TMM(3) TMM(-4) TMM(-5)
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
1.074353
|
0.222585
|
4.826718
|
0.0001
|
|
TD(-1)
|
0.928833
|
0.017415
|
53.33388
|
0.0000
|
|
QINF
|
0.031193
|
0.004544
|
6.864628
|
0.0000
|
|
GAP
|
-1.583954
|
0.458268
|
-3.456392
|
0.0025
|
|
TMM
|
-0.047814
|
0.004044
|
-11.82415
|
0.0000
|
|
TCH
|
-0.000134
|
6.82E-05
|
-1.963865
|
0.0636
|
|
D86
|
3.862562
|
0.240850
|
16.03718
|
0.0000
|
|
D93
|
1.304122
|
0.175700
|
7.422416
|
0.0000
|
|
R-squared
|
0.681414
|
Mean dependent var
|
11.41000
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.569909
|
S.D. dependent var
|
2.348068
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
1.539893
|
Sum squared resid
|
47.42544
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.428891
|
J-statistic
|
0.240277
|
Annexe 4 : Evolution du taux d'inflation et du PIB
réel
Source : auteur à partir des données des
rapports annuels et trimestriels de la BRB
|
|
