Impact des crédits a l'économie sur l'inflation et la croissance au Bénin

Annexe 1 : Trajectoires des séries du modèle

0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1
	75 80 85 90 95 00

INFL

300 250 200 150 100 50 0
	75 80 85 90 95 00

CE

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40
	75 80 85 90 95 00

INVTOTR

1000 800 600 400 200
	75 80 85 90 95 00

PIBR

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
	75 80 85 90 95 00

TXCHANGE

Annexe 2 : Base de données des estimations

Année	CE	INFL	PIBR	INVTOTR	TXCHANGE^10
1972	10.4	3,5%	271.5	88.50	276.02
1973	12.7	4,7%	277.7	78.00	261.22
1974	16.5	30,8%	256.7	97.80	256.05
1975	32.4	0,4%	268	97.90	235.42
1976	32.1	13,5%	279.4	70.70	222.22
1977	37.6	5,2%	295.3	68.0	224.27
1978	45.1	5,9%	303.5	62.90	248.49
1979	59.4	14,1%	318.6	91.50	235.25
1980	85.0	14,4%	353.4	88.60	209.00
1981	87.0	15,8%	373.9	100.5	201.00
1982	125.9	22,3%	423.2	116.8	225.80
1983	132.0	4,6%	404.8	70.10	287.40
1984	129.0	2,0%	436.9	55.8	336.25
1985	145.5	-6,9%	469.8	74.00	417.37
1986	132.6	-1,5%	479.9	70.70	479.60
1987	124.8	0,8%	472.7	67.00	378.05
1988	137.8	1,9%	488.9	76.10	322.75
1989	103.4	1,8%	474.9	56.10	267.00
1990	102.1	1,6%	490.1	69.60	302.95
1991	85.8	0,7%	513.4	75.20	289.40
1992	69.4	3,3%	533.8	79.30	256.45
1993	46.6	1,1%	553.2	79.20	259.00
1994	76.0	33,6%	577.4	106.60	275.32
1995	81.4	15,5%	604.2	126.70	294.77
1996	102.4	6,6%	639.7	112.40	354.60
1997	71.7	4,7%	676.1	130.80	490.00
1998	100.1	5,5%	406.8	133.10	523.70
1999	161.7	1,4%	740.0	145.60	598.81
2000	194.0	3,3%	782.6	152.80	562.21
2001	192.8	3,1%	822.1	163.30	652.95
2002	222.2	2,5%	874.4	176.60 704.95
2003	293.8	1,5%	922.3	188.20 744.31

Source : INSAE, SFI, BCEAO

¹⁰ Dollar /CFA

Annexe 3 : Test de normalité de Jarque Bera

	CE	LCE	INFL	PIBR	LPIBR	INVTOTR	LINVTOTR	TXCHANGE	LTXCHANGE
Mean	101.53	4.37	0.06	493.28	6.13	99.08	4.54	387.27	5.84
Median	93.55	4.53	0.03	473.80	6.16	88.55	4.48	288.40	5.66
Maximum	293.80	5.68	0.33	922.30	6.83	188.20	5.24	1354.60	7.21
Minimum	10.40	2.34	-0.05	256.70	5.55	55.80	4.02	201.00	5.30
Std. Dev.	64.22	0.79	0.09	186.17	0.37	36.01	0.34	234.76	0.46
Skewness	0.90	-0.93	1.60	0.71	0.10	0.95	0.48	2.45	1.14
Kurtosis	3.94	3.44	5.11	2.66	2.08	2.91	2.19	10.07	3.71
Jarque-Bera	5.59	4.90	19.59	2.81	1.18	4.87	2.09	98.69	7.60
Probability	0.06	0.08	0.0056	0.25	0.55	0.09	0.35	0.00	0.02
Observations	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32

Toutes les séries sont normales et lognormales sur la période 1972 à 2003 à l'exception du taux de change (Txchange) et du taux d'inflation (INFL).

Annexe 4 : Résultats des tests de racine unitaire sur les variables Annexe 4.1 : Test ADF sur CE

ADF Test Statistic -2.002848 1% Critical Value* -2.6453 5% Critical Value -1.9530 10% Critical Value -1.6218
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(CE,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 06/30/04 Time: 10:36 Sample(adjusted): 1975 2003 Included observations: 29 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(CE(-1)) -0.562520 0.280860 -2.002848 0.0553 D(CE(-1),2) -0.132425 0.224057 -0.591033 0.5594
R-squared 0.270013 Mean dependent var 2.337931 Adjusted R-squared 0.242977 S.D. dependent var 29.49625 S.E. of regression 25.66383 Akaike info criterion 9.394514 Sum squared resid 17783.07 Schwarz criterion 9.488810 Log likelihood -134.2205 F-statistic 9.986975 Durbin-Watson stat 1.831873 Prob(F-statistic) 0.003866
ADF Test Statistic -2.620080 1% Critical Value* -2.6453 5% Critical Value -1.9530 10% Critical Value -1.6218
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LCE,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 06/30/04 Time: 10:41 Sample(adjusted): 1975 2003 Included observations: 29 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(LCE(-1)) -0.622142 0.237451 -2.620080 0.0143 D(LCE(-1),2) -0.231644 0.186956 -1.239026 0.2260
R-squared 0.434940 Mean dependent var 0.000606 Adjusted R-squared 0.414012 S.D. dependent var 0.348408 S.E. of regression 0.266706 Akaike info criterion 0.261130 Sum squared resid 1.920561 Schwarz criterion 0.355426 Log likelihood -1.786378 F-statistic 20.78255 Durbin-Watson stat 1.953016 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000100
ADF Test Statistic -5.761657 1% Critical Value* -4.3082 5% Critical Value -3.5731 10% Critical Value -3.2203
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(INFL,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 07/30/04 Time: 08:57 Sample(adjusted): 1975 2003 Included observations: 29 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(INFL(-1)) -1.690054 0.293328 -5.761657 0.0000 D(INFL(-1),2) 0.142197 0.170677 0.833133 0.4127 C -0.028111 0.039434 -0.712866 0.4825 @TREND(1972) 0.001052 0.002083 0.505040 0.6180
R-squared 0.798186 Mean dependent var -0.009032 Adjusted R-squared 0.773968 S.D. dependent var 0.196817 S.E. of regression 0.093572 Akaike info criterion -1.772724 Sum squared resid 0.218894 Schwarz criterion -1.584131 Log likelihood 29.70449 F-statistic 32.95879 Durbin-Watson stat 1.588029 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
ADF Test Statistic -4.262190 1% Critical Value* -2.6453 5% Critical Value -1.9530 10% Critical Value -1.6218
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(INVTOTR,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 06/30/04 Time: 10:52 Sample(adjusted): 1975 2003 Included observations: 29 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(INVTOTR(-1)) -1.177550 0.276278 -4.262190 0.0002 D(INVTOTR(-1),2) 0.136956 0.188760 0.725554 0.4744
R-squared 0.532314 Mean dependent var -0.282759 Adjusted R-squared 0.514993 S.D. dependent var 24.15070 S.E. of regression 16.81914 Akaike info criterion 8.549385 Sum squared resid 7637.857 Schwarz criterion 8.643681 Log likelihood -121.9661 F-statistic 30.73110 Durbin-Watson stat 1.924697 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000007
ADF Test Statistic -4.795380 1% Critical Value* -2.6453 5% Critical Value -1.9530 10% Critical Value -1.6218
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LINVTOTR,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 06/30/04 Time: 10:54 Sample(adjusted): 1975 2003 Included observations: 29 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(LINVTOTR(-1)) -1.325067 0.276322 -4.795380 0.0001 D(LINVTOTR(-1),2) 0.204682 0.183792 1.113661 0.2752
R-squared 0.577658 Mean dependent var -0.005607 Adjusted R-squared 0.562016 S.D. dependent var 0.288068 S.E. of regression 0.190644 Akaike info criterion -0.410342 Sum squared resid 0.981323 Schwarz criterion -0.316045 Log likelihood 7.949953 F-statistic 36.92921 Durbin-Watson stat 1.956197 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000002
ADF Test Statistic -6.062526 1% Critical Value* -2.6453 5% Critical Value -1.9530 10% Critical Value -1.6218
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(TXCHANGE,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 06/30/04 Time: 11:02 Sample(adjusted): 1975 2003 Included observations: 29 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(TXCHANGE(-1)) -1.912496 0.315462 -6.062526 0.0000 D(TXCHANGE(-1),2) 0.300607 0.183943 1.634239 0.1138
R-squared 0.758775 Mean dependent var 1.535517 Adjusted R-squared 0.749840 S.D. dependent var 450.1325 S.E. of regression 225.1381 Akaike info criterion 13.73778 Sum squared resid 1368553. Schwarz criterion 13.83207 Log likelihood -197.1978 F-statistic 84.92851 Durbin-Watson stat 2.079233 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
ADF Test Statistic -5.019450 1% Critical Value* 5% Critical Value 10% Critical Value	-4.3082 -3.5731 -3.2203
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LTXCHANGE,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/30/04 Time: 11:14
Sample(adjusted): 1975 2003
Included observations: 29 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LTXCHANGE(-1)) -1.639176 0.326565 -5.019450	0.0000
D(LTXCHANGE(- 0.186831 0.196477 0.950904	0.3508
1),2) C -0.037723 0.147625 -0.255536	0.8004
@TREND(1972) 0.005621 0.007866 0.714514	0.4815
R-squared 0.701313 Mean dependent var	0.002563
Adjusted R-squared 0.665470 S.D. dependent var	0.605487
S.E. of regression 0.350205 Akaike info criterion	0.866846
Sum squared resid 3.066088 Schwarz criterion	1.055438
Log likelihood -8.569264 F-statistic	19.56653
Durbin-Watson stat 2.021815 Prob(F-statistic)	0.000001