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The role of supply and use/input output tables in the perspective analysis of economic development of Rwanda

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par Jean Baptiste HABYARIMANA
National University of Rwanda - Bachelor's degree 2010
  

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4.3. Human Development Index Analysis

HDI trend deceased from 1985 to 1994 due to war. This decease was explained by the low GDP per capital, decrease in life expectance and low literacy level, Low investment, Low Export and high Import, Low productivity in Agricultural sector, and this period was characterized by Gini coefficient of 28.9 (1980- ) which shows how the income was unequally distributed among pupation.

HDI has increased from 1995 with the economic rehabilitation and reorientation, from since economic activities were boosted and the production begins to increase. These policies caused an increase in GDP per capita and the recent figures show that GDP per capita was 213.9 current $ in 2000 and 258.8 Current $ in 2005 to reach 458.5 current $ in 2008. The Gini coefficient increase from 28.9 in 1980 to 46.8 in 2007, with the life expectance at birth of 51 years in 2009, and in Education data of 2005-2008 show a Primary-Secondary gross enrolment ratio of women and men per 100 of 89.7 and 98.6 respectively.

But, even though HDI experienced improvement, Rwanda is steal classified in Low Human Development Index at Rank 167 in 2006 with HDI lower than 0.5.

The Urban population growth from 2005 to 2009 is estimated at 4.2% against 2.4% in rural areas. These figures show that many persons in Rwanda are concentrating in town where they are expecting good life (Sanitation and Hygiene), and due to those factors in 2007 18% of population of Rwanda lived in urban areas.

Those changes had been caused by the improvement in sectors like Agriculture, Industry and Services sectors, and this contributed in GDP growth ,where by the Gross Fixed capital formation was increased, the recent figures show that the gross fixed capital formation Percentage of GDP was 18% in 2000 to reach 22.7% in 2008, and in most of cases these sectors are well developed in town rather than in rural areas here in Rwanda. For different reasons these sectors provided job to population, this caused improvement in Gini Coefficient and as consequences the Human Poverty index decreased rapidly and was 32.9% in 2007.

If the HDI in Rwanda continue to increase as it was increasing last 30 years, the HDI of Rwanda can exceed value of 0.5 in 25 beyond the period of the study. But some changes can increase HDI as shown in graph above such as the improvement of Agriculture sector which cover the important part of Rwanda population, improvement of Industry sectors by increasing their capacity of making value added on different products especial agro-products and this factors has a significant role in increasing Export and reducing Import which contrasts the economic development of Rwanda.

4.4. Environment quality and resource depletion

Rwanda has recently experienced tremendous growth in GDP current prices. But in expending its manufacturing base, it also has suffered a severe decline in water and forest reserves. Increased pollution certainly detracts from the quality of life, but because water and air are not sold in markets, the GDP of Rwanda does not reflect this downside of their economic growth. The exploitation of finite natural resources also tends to be overlooked in GDP.

A number of efforts have been made to incorporate factors like air quality and resource depletion into a comprehensive measure of GDP. Doing so has been difficult, since it often involves placing a monetary unit value on intangibles, like having clean river as it is the policy of Rwanda by eradicating erosion, planting bamboos at least in 50 m from rives or lakes and resource conservation are hard to measure even though forests conservations are being developed by creating Nation Park to promote Tourism in Rwanda.

Environment

Threatened species

2009

53

Forested area (% of land area)

2007

21.7

CO2 emission estimates (000 metric tons and metric tons per capita)

2006

795/0.1

Energy consumption per capita (kilograms oil equivalent)

2007

19

Rainfall, total mean (millimetres)

 

1028

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