ANNEXES
ANNEXE 1:Données de
l'étude
|
N°
|
Période
|
Consommation Essence
|
Consommation Pétrole
|
Prix de l'Essence Zone Sud
|
Prix du Pétrole
Zone Sud
|
IPC
Base déc 2009
|
Taux de change
USD/CDF
|
|
1
|
janv-10
|
22 611m3
|
850 m3
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
1 090,00 CDF
|
103,22
|
909,89 CDF
|
|
2
|
févr-10
|
19 748 m3
|
1 167 m3
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
1 090,00 CDF
|
104,24
|
917,97 CDF
|
|
3
|
mars-10
|
31 433 m3
|
1 367 m3
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
1 090,00 CDF
|
104,22
|
912,15 CDF
|
|
4
|
avr-10
|
23 560 m3
|
941 m3
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
1 090,00 CDF
|
104,38
|
897,76 CDF
|
|
5
|
mai-10
|
23 181 m3
|
264 m3
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
1 090,00 CDF
|
104,62
|
897,33 CDF
|
|
6
|
juin-10
|
28 388 m3
|
1 219 m3
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
1 090,00 CDF
|
104,54
|
899,64 CDF
|
|
7
|
juil-10
|
23 337 m3
|
448 m3
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
1 090,00 CDF
|
104,62
|
900,94 CDF
|
|
8
|
août-10
|
25 120 m3
|
556 m3
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
1 090,00 CDF
|
104,84
|
901,31 CDF
|
|
9
|
sept-10
|
26 698 m3
|
909 m3
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
1 090,00 CDF
|
105,67
|
903,55 CDF
|
|
10
|
oct-10
|
27 611 m3
|
741 m3
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
1 090,00 CDF
|
106,68
|
907,25 CDF
|
|
11
|
nov-10
|
24 979 m3
|
492 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
107,92
|
910,65 CDF
|
|
12
|
déc-10
|
24 008 m3
|
420 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
109,84
|
911,78 CDF
|
|
13
|
janv-11
|
27 313 m3
|
696 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
111,44
|
920,15 CDF
|
|
14
|
févr-11
|
24 386 m3
|
965 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
113,48
|
925,16 CDF
|
|
15
|
mars-11
|
28 330 m3
|
1 080 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
116,32
|
920,70 CDF
|
|
16
|
avr-11
|
26 434 m3
|
925 m3
|
1 500,00 CDF
|
1 450,00 CDF
|
118,78
|
921,60 CDF
|
|
17
|
mai-11
|
30 069 m3
|
909 m3
|
1 500,00 CDF
|
1 450,00 CDF
|
121,16
|
925,97 CDF
|
|
18
|
juin-11
|
28 977 m3
|
897 m3
|
1 500,00 CDF
|
1 450,00 CDF
|
123,72
|
923,49 CDF
|
|
19
|
juil-11
|
28 493 m3
|
910 m3
|
1 525,00 CDF
|
1 475,00 CDF
|
124,89
|
922,74 CDF
|
|
20
|
août-11
|
29 180 m3
|
905 m3
|
1 585,00 CDF
|
1 535,00 CDF
|
125,71
|
921,00 CDF
|
|
21
|
sept-11
|
28 883 m3
|
904 m3
|
1 585,00 CDF
|
1 535,00 CDF
|
126,21
|
921,86 CDF
|
|
22
|
oct-11
|
28 852 m3
|
907 m3
|
1 585,00 CDF
|
1 535,00 CDF
|
126,35
|
920,83 CDF
|
|
23
|
nov-11
|
28 972 m3
|
905 m3
|
1 585,00 CDF
|
1 535,00 CDF
|
126,50
|
911,69 CDF
|
|
24
|
déc-11
|
28 902 m3
|
905 m3
|
1 585,00 CDF
|
1 535,00 CDF
|
126,79
|
898,12 CDF
|
|
25
|
janv-12
|
28 909 m3
|
906 m3
|
1 585,00 CDF
|
1 535,00 CDF
|
132,17
|
917,79 CDF
|
|
26
|
févr-12
|
28 928 m3
|
906 m3
|
1 585,00 CDF
|
1 535,00 CDF
|
132,32
|
920,60 CDF
|
|
27
|
mars-12
|
28 918 m3
|
906 m3
|
1 585,00 CDF
|
1 535,00 CDF
|
132,64
|
921,55 CDF
|
|
28
|
avr-12
|
28 923 m3
|
906 m3
|
1 585,00 CDF
|
1 535,00 CDF
|
132,83
|
922,00 CDF
|
|
29
|
mai-12
|
28 921 m3
|
906 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
133,00
|
923,57 CDF
|
|
30
|
juin-12
|
28 922 m3
|
906 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
133,13
|
921,77 CDF
|
|
31
|
juil-12
|
28 921 m3
|
906 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
133,26
|
920,06 CDF
|
|
32
|
août-12
|
28 922 m3
|
906 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
133,48
|
919,00 CDF
|
|
33
|
sept-12
|
28 920 m3
|
906 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
133,62
|
918,44 CDF
|
|
34
|
oct-12
|
28 922 m3
|
906 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
133,67
|
916,83 CDF
|
|
35
|
nov-12
|
28 140 m3
|
881 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
133,83
|
915,71 CDF
|
|
36
|
déc-12
|
29 175 m3
|
914 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
133,98
|
914,93 CDF
|
|
37
|
janv-13
|
32 279 m3
|
422 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
134,15
|
915,96 CDF
|
|
38
|
févr-13
|
25 829 m3
|
208 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
134,33
|
917,85 CDF
|
|
39
|
mars-13
|
28 870 m3
|
342 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
134,46
|
917,24 CDF
|
|
40
|
avr-13
|
29 050 m3
|
376 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
134,63
|
917,43 CDF
|
|
41
|
mai-13
|
34 990 m3
|
245 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
134,90
|
918,89 CDF
|
|
42
|
juin-13
|
30 600 m3
|
289 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
135,12
|
918,44 CDF
|
|
43
|
juil-13
|
34 685 m3
|
199 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
135,47
|
918,05 CDF
|
|
44
|
août-13
|
33 841 m3
|
285 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
135,78
|
917,98 CDF
|
|
45
|
sept-13
|
31 680 m3
|
175 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
135,93
|
919,26 CDF
|
|
46
|
oct-13
|
36 143 m3
|
142 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
136,14
|
923,24 CDF
|
|
47
|
nov-13
|
33 104 m3
|
422 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
136,27
|
925,13 CDF
|
|
48
|
déc-13
|
36 763 m3
|
179 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
136,46
|
926,13 CDF
|
|
49
|
janv-14
|
30 869 m3
|
221 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
136,67
|
927,44 CDF
|
|
50
|
févr-14
|
31 245 m3
|
239 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
136,82
|
927,50 CDF
|
|
51
|
mars-14
|
36 432 m3
|
263 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
136,94
|
925,66 CDF
|
|
52
|
avr-14
|
33 529 m3
|
161 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
137,06
|
924,54 CDF
|
|
53
|
mai-14
|
31 894 m3
|
229 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
137,23
|
924,86 CDF
|
|
54
|
juin-14
|
30 810 m3
|
184 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
137,32
|
925,04 CDF
|
|
55
|
juil-14
|
36 889 m3
|
334 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
137,50
|
924,05 CDF
|
|
56
|
août-14
|
36 990 m3
|
170 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
137,63
|
924,24 CDF
|
|
57
|
sept-14
|
39 388 m3
|
202 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
137,79
|
924,44 CDF
|
|
58
|
oct-14
|
39 831 m3
|
209 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
137,94
|
925,01 CDF
|
|
59
|
nov-14
|
35 023 m3
|
211 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
138,05
|
924,33 CDF
|
|
60
|
déc-14
|
39 208 m3
|
218 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
138,18
|
925,11 CDF
|
|
61
|
janv-15
|
38 020 m3
|
213 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
138,36
|
925,44 CDF
|
|
62
|
févr-15
|
38 020 m3
|
213 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
138,50
|
925,02 CDF
|
|
63
|
mars-15
|
38 416 m3
|
215 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
138,64
|
925,62 CDF
|
|
64
|
avr-15
|
38 152 m3
|
214 m3
|
1 640,00 CDF
|
1 590,00 CDF
|
138,83
|
925,53 CDF
|
|
65
|
mai-15
|
38 363 m3
|
215 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
138,98
|
924,79 CDF
|
|
66
|
juin-15
|
38 194 m3
|
214 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
139,13
|
925,59 CDF
|
|
67
|
juil-15
|
38 229 m3
|
214 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
139,32
|
925,38 CDF
|
|
68
|
août-15
|
38 271 m3
|
214 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
139,52
|
925,73 CDF
|
|
69
|
sept-15
|
38 242 m3
|
214 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
139,82
|
926,16 CDF
|
|
70
|
oct-15
|
38 260 m3
|
214 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
140,01
|
927,45 CDF
|
|
71
|
nov-15
|
38 239 m3
|
214 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
140,17
|
927,64 CDF
|
|
72
|
déc-15
|
38 248 m3
|
214 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
140,39
|
927,51 CDF
|
|
73
|
janv-16
|
29 099 m3
|
44 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
140,55
|
928,49 CDF
|
|
74
|
févr-16
|
28 023 m3
|
99 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
140,71
|
930,23 CDF
|
|
75
|
mars-16
|
31 597 m3
|
206 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
140,93
|
936,48 CDF
|
|
76
|
avr-16
|
29 312 m3
|
142 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
141,18
|
945,70 CDF
|
|
77
|
mai-16
|
28 625 m3
|
109 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
141,45
|
952,18 CDF
|
|
78
|
juin-16
|
28 813 m3
|
67 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
142,73
|
965,71 CDF
|
|
79
|
juil-16
|
31 516 m3
|
59 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
145,60
|
991,62 CDF
|
|
80
|
août-16
|
29 180 m3
|
99 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
146,58
|
1 011,69 CDF
|
|
81
|
sept-16
|
31 711 m3
|
83 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
147,49
|
1 060,98 CDF
|
|
82
|
oct-16
|
31 865 m3
|
73 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
150,50
|
1 120,56 CDF
|
|
83
|
nov-16
|
30 382 m3
|
49 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 440,0 CDF 0
|
156,67
|
1 147,31 CDF
|
|
84
|
déc-16
|
32 635 m3
|
70 m3
|
1 440,00 CDF
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
175,58
|
1 201,49 CDF
|
|
85
|
janv-17
|
28 715 m3
|
117 m3
|
1 280,00 CDF
|
1 140,00 CDF
|
186,50
|
1 252,50 CDF
|
|
86
|
févr-17
|
27 654 m3
|
97 m3
|
1 280,00 CDF
|
1 140,00 CDF
|
191,38
|
1 300,75 CDF
|
|
87
|
mars-17
|
31 181 m3
|
121 m3
|
1 280,00 CDF
|
1 140,00 CDF
|
194,87
|
1 342,36 CDF
|
|
88
|
avr-17
|
28 926 m3
|
101 m3
|
1 280,00 CDF
|
1 140,00 CDF
|
200,30
|
1 387,03 CDF
|
|
89
|
mai-17
|
28 247 m3
|
80 m3
|
1 280,00 CDF
|
1 140,00 CDF
|
207,15
|
1 419,82 CDF
|
|
90
|
juin-17
|
28 434 m3
|
108 m3
|
1 280,00 CDF
|
1 140,00 CDF
|
223,79
|
1.464,86 CDF
|
|
91
|
juil-17
|
31 101 m3
|
128 m3
|
1 280,00 CDF
|
1 140,00 CDF
|
244,98
|
1 572,58 CDF
|
|
92
|
août-17
|
28 796 m3
|
62 m3
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
1 200,00 CDF
|
251,03
|
1.547,79 CDF
|
|
93
|
sept-17
|
31 294 m3
|
91 m3
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
1 200,00 CDF
|
251,99
|
1 562,03 CDF
|
|
94
|
oct-17
|
31 445 m3
|
59 m3
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
1 200,00 CDF
|
252,62
|
1 571,14 CDF
|
|
95
|
nov-17
|
29 982 m3
|
30 m3
|
1 340,00 CDF
|
1 200,00 CDF
|
253,68
|
1 579,59 CDF
|
|
96
|
déc-17
|
32 205 m3
|
44 m3
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
1 255,00 CDF
|
257,79
|
1 590,46 CDF
|
|
97
|
janv-18
|
32 087 m3
|
236 m3
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
1 255,00 CDF
|
261,78
|
1 600,22 CDF
|
|
98
|
févr-18
|
32 990 m3
|
121 m3
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
1 255,00 CDF
|
263,85
|
1 612,54 CDF
|
|
99
|
mars-18
|
50 404 m3
|
258 m3
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
1 255,00 CDF
|
265,30
|
1 616,43 CDF
|
|
100
|
avr-18
|
33 832 m3
|
87 m3
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
1 255,00 CDF
|
268,54
|
1 618,13 CDF
|
|
101
|
mai-18
|
28 511 m3
|
446 m3
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
1 255,00 CDF
|
272,73
|
1 619,26 CDF
|
|
102
|
juin-18
|
26 571 m3
|
600 m3
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
1 255,00 CDF
|
274,31
|
1 623,91 CDF
|
|
103
|
juil-18
|
29 790 m3
|
93 m3
|
1 400,00 CDF
|
1 255,00 CDF
|
274,80
|
1 625,49 CDF
|
|
104
|
août-18
|
30 259 m3
|
155 m3
|
1 415,00 CDF
|
1 260,00 CDF
|
275,27
|
1 627,91 CDF
|
|
105
|
sept-18
|
29 386 m3
|
62 m3
|
1 415,00 CDF
|
1 260,00 CDF
|
275,55
|
1 628,89 CDF
|
|
106
|
oct-18
|
31 858 m3
|
145 m3
|
1 485,00 CDF
|
1 320,00 CDF
|
276,18
|
1 631,35 CDF
|
|
107
|
nov-18
|
36 624 m3
|
211 m3
|
1 555,00 CDF
|
1 380,00 CDF
|
276,76
|
1 632,30 CDF
|
|
108
|
déc-18
|
26 556 m3
|
143 m3
|
1 555,00 CDF
|
1 380,00 CDF
|
277,65
|
1 632,76 CDF
|
|
109
|
janv-19
|
32 196 m3
|
646 m3
|
1 555,00 CDF
|
1 380,00 CDF
|
279,31
|
1 637,33 CDF
|
|
110
|
févr-19
|
40 435 m3
|
88 m3
|
1 555,00 CDF
|
1 380,00 CDF
|
280,48
|
1 637,04 CDF
|
|
111
|
mars-19
|
40 091 m3
|
1 335 m3
|
1 555,00 CDF
|
1 380,00 CDF
|
281,24
|
1 639,29 CDF
|
|
112
|
avr-19
|
46 549 m3
|
60 m3
|
1 750,00 CDF
|
1 540,00 CDF
|
282,14
|
1 639,52 CDF
|
|
113
|
mai-19
|
56 978 m3
|
61 m3
|
1 750,00 CDF
|
1 540,00 CDF
|
282,99
|
1 640,57 CDF
|
|
114
|
juin-19
|
31 778 m3
|
50 m3
|
1 760,00 CDF
|
1 550,00 CDF
|
283,61
|
1 644,05 CDF
|
|
115
|
juil-19
|
39 750 m3
|
78 m3
|
1 760,00 CDF
|
1 550,00 CDF
|
284,15
|
1 647,70 CDF
|
|
116
|
août-19
|
31 033 m3
|
941 m3
|
1 760,00 CDF
|
1 550,00 CDF
|
284,75
|
1 652,27 CDF
|
|
117
|
sept-19
|
47 885 m3
|
105 m3
|
1 760,00 CDF
|
1 550,00 CDF
|
285,34
|
1 653,72 CDF
|
|
118
|
oct-19
|
42 866 m3
|
51 m3
|
1 760,00 CDF
|
1 550,00 CDF
|
286,14
|
1 654,01 CDF
|
|
119
|
nov-19
|
37 464 m3
|
54 m3
|
1 760,00 CDF
|
1 550,00 CDF
|
287,00
|
1 658,77 CDF
|
|
120
|
déc-19
|
37 751 m3
|
57 m3
|
1 760,00 CDF
|
1 550,00 CDF
|
288,52
|
1 669,59 CDF
|
Source : Bulletin mensuel statique de la Banque Centrale
du Congo 2020
ANNEXE 2: Statistique descriptives
|
LCE
|
LCP
|
LPE
|
LPP
|
LDFC
|
LIPC
|
|
Mean
|
10.36130
|
5.525366
|
7.328975
|
7.252778
|
-1.045753
|
5.077758
|
|
Median
|
10.33655
|
5.365976
|
7.349231
|
7.275859
|
-0.614290
|
4.929197
|
|
Maximum
|
10.95042
|
7.220374
|
7.473069
|
7.371489
|
1.995191
|
5.664775
|
|
Minimum
|
9.890807
|
3.401197
|
7.154615
|
6.993933
|
-5.040669
|
4.636830
|
|
Std. Dev.
|
0.168475
|
1.009097
|
0.093321
|
0.124799
|
1.523821
|
0.334059
|
|
Skewness
|
0.523742
|
0.011581
|
-0.161732
|
-0.834139
|
-0.360122
|
0.732505
|
|
Kurtosis
|
3.981590
|
1.852168
|
1.893255
|
2.451811
|
2.401358
|
2.027776
|
|
Jarque-Bera
|
10.30371
|
6.590276
|
6.647570
|
15.41832
|
4.385625
|
15.45736
|
|
Probability
|
0.005789
|
0.037063
|
0.036016
|
0.000449
|
0.111602
|
0.000440
|
|
Sum
|
1243.357
|
663.0439
|
879.4770
|
870.3334
|
-125.4903
|
609.3310
|
|
Sum Sq. Dev.
|
3.377669
|
121.1750
|
1.036337
|
1.853398
|
276.3215
|
13.27989
|
|
Observations
|
120
|
120
|
120
|
120
|
120
|
120
|
ANNEXE 3 : Matrice de corrélation
|
LCE
|
LCP
|
LPE
|
LPP
|
LDFC
|
LIPC
|
|
LCE
|
1
|
-0.40379
|
0.39125
|
0.39270
|
-0.29323
|
0.41300
|
|
LCP
|
-0.40379
|
1
|
0.09705
|
0.11390
|
0.00172
|
-0.57351
|
|
LPE
|
0.39126
|
0.09705
|
1
|
0.90215
|
-0.43242
|
0.28565
|
|
LPP
|
0.39270
|
0.11391
|
0.90215
|
1
|
-0.36538
|
0.06730
|
|
LDFC
|
-0.29323
|
0.00172
|
-0.43242
|
-0.36538
|
1
|
-0.09485
|
|
LIPC
|
0.41300
|
-0.57351
|
0.28565
|
0.06730
|
-0.09485
|
1
|
ANNEXE 4: Test de stationnarité
4.1. Test d'Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF)
Les hypothèses du test sont :
- H0 : la série est non stationnaire [ADF <
Mackinnon] ou [Prob> 5%]
- H1 : la série est stationnaire [ADF >
Mackinnon] ou [Prob< 5%].
Série : Consommation des produits pétroliers en
logarithme
A. Essence
En niveau
|
Null Hypothesis: LCPP_E has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-3.789322
|
0.0040
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.486551
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-2.886074
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.579931
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
Pétrole
En niveau
|
Null Hypothesis: LCPP_P has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 4 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-1.151290
|
0.2264
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.585226
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.943637
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.614882
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
En différence première
|
Null Hypothesis: D(LCPP_P) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-10.67123
|
0.0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.585226
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.943637
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.614882
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Série : prix des produits pétroliers
A. Essence
En niveau
|
Null Hypothesis: LPE has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Bandwidth: 4 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
1.012752
|
0.9175
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.584539
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.943540
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.614941
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
En différence première
|
Null Hypothesis: D(LPE) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Bandwidth: 4 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
-10.54100
|
0.0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.584707
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.943563
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.614927
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
B. Pétrole
En niveau
|
Null Hypothesis: LPP has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Bandwidth: 5 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
-2.226496
|
0.1981
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.486064
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-2.885863
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.579818
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
En différence première
|
Null Hypothesis: D(LPP) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Bandwidth: 5 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
-10.36708
|
0.0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.486551
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-2.886074
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.579931
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Série : Dépréciation du franc
congolais en logarithme
En niveau
|
Null Hypothesis: LDFC has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Bandwidth: 6 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adj. t-Stat
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Phillips-Perron test statistic
|
-7.102093
|
0.0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.486064
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-2.885863
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.579818
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
Série : Indice des prix à la
consommation en logarithme
En niveau
|
Null Hypothesis: LIPC has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
|
|
|
Lag Length: 6 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-2.773378
|
0.2102
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-4.041280
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3.450073
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-3.150336
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
En différence première
|
Null Hypothesis: D(LIPC) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-4.669378
|
0.0013
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-4.037668
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3.448348
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-3.149326
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ANNEXE 5 : Estimation du modèle ARDL
|
Dependent Variable: LCE
|
|
|
|
Method: ARDL
|
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/30/20 Time: 20:45
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 2010M04 2019M12
|
|
|
Included observations: 117 afteradjustments
|
|
|
Maximum dependentlags: 1 (Automaticselection)
|
|
Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC)
|
|
Dynamic regressors (4 lags, automatic): LCP LPE LPP LDFC
LIPC
|
|
Fixedregressors: C
|
|
|
|
Number of modelsevalulated: 3125
|
|
|
Selected Model: ARDL(1, 3, 0, 0, 1, 0)
|
|
|
Note: final equation sample is larger than selection sample
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LCE(-1)
|
0.432529
|
0.082412
|
5.248392
|
0.0000
|
|
LCP
|
-0.016664
|
0.016993
|
-0.980628
|
0.3290
|
|
LCP(-1)
|
0.016707
|
0.017590
|
0.949829
|
0.3444
|
|
LCP(-2)
|
0.012794
|
0.017453
|
0.733064
|
0.4651
|
|
LCP(-3)
|
-0.072116
|
0.017312
|
-4.165656
|
0.0001
|
|
LPE
|
0.151941
|
0.395805
|
0.383878
|
0.7018
|
|
LPP
|
0.247243
|
0.264233
|
0.935701
|
0.3516
|
|
LDFC
|
-0.000785
|
0.008107
|
-0.096835
|
0.9230
|
|
LDFC(-1)
|
-0.014557
|
0.008048
|
-1.808632
|
0.0733
|
|
LIPC
|
-0.003438
|
0.061340
|
-0.056049
|
0.9554
|
|
C
|
3.306280
|
1.318588
|
2.507440
|
0.0137
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.580395
|
Meandependent var
|
10.36824
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.540809
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.161841
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.109670
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-1.493392
|
|
Sumsquaredresid
|
1.274904
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-1.233700
|
|
Log likelihood
|
98.36340
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-1.387960
|
|
F-statistic
|
14.66184
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.175623
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Note: p-values and any subsequent tests do not account for
model
|
|
selection.
|
|
|
|
ARDL Long Run Form and Bounds Test
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LCE)
|
|
|
|
Selected Model: ARDL(1, 3, 0, 0, 1, 0)
|
|
|
Case 2: Restricted Constant and No Trend
|
|
|
Date: 11/30/20 Time: 20:47
|
|
|
|
Sample: 2010M01 2019M12
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 117
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ConditionalError Correction Regression
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
3.306280
|
1.318588
|
2.507440
|
0.0137
|
|
LCE(-1)*
|
-0.567471
|
0.082412
|
-6.885804
|
0.0000
|
|
LCP(-1)
|
-0.059278
|
0.020471
|
-2.895667
|
0.0046
|
|
LPE**
|
0.151941
|
0.395805
|
0.383878
|
0.7018
|
|
LPP**
|
0.247243
|
0.264233
|
0.935701
|
0.3516
|
|
LDFC(-1)
|
-0.015342
|
0.009633
|
-1.592614
|
0.1142
|
|
LIPC**
|
-0.003438
|
0.061340
|
-0.056049
|
0.9554
|
|
D(LCP)
|
-0.016664
|
0.016993
|
-0.980628
|
0.3290
|
|
D(LCP(-1))
|
0.059322
|
0.021582
|
2.748698
|
0.0070
|
|
D(LCP(-2))
|
0.072116
|
0.017312
|
4.165656
|
0.0001
|
|
D(LDFC)
|
-0.000785
|
0.008107
|
-0.096835
|
0.9230
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* p-value incompatible with t-Bounds distribution.
|
|
** Variable interpreted as Z = Z(-1) + D(Z).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Levels Equation
|
|
Case 2: Restricted Constant and No Trend
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LCP
|
-0.104461
|
0.034500
|
-3.027883
|
0.0031
|
|
LPE
|
0.267751
|
0.701390
|
0.381743
|
0.7034
|
|
LPP
|
0.435693
|
0.457543
|
0.952244
|
0.3431
|
|
LDFC
|
-0.027035
|
0.016255
|
-1.663236
|
0.0992
|
|
LIPC
|
-0.006059
|
0.108170
|
-0.056009
|
0.9554
|
|
C
|
5.826343
|
2.008251
|
2.901203
|
0.0045
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EC = LCE - (-0.1045*LCP + 0.2678*LPE + 0.4357*LPP
-0.0270*LDFC
|
|
-0.0061*LIPC +
5.8263 )
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F-Bounds Test
|
Null Hypothesis: No levels relationship
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Test Statistic
|
Value
|
Signif.
|
I(0)
|
I(1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Asymptotic: n=1000
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
7.103571
|
10%
|
2.08
|
3
|
|
k
|
5
|
5%
|
2.39
|
3.38
|
|
|
2.5%
|
2.7
|
3.73
|
|
|
1%
|
3.06
|
4.15
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ActualSample Size
|
117
|
|
FiniteSample: n=80
|
|
|
|
10%
|
2.303
|
3.154
|
|
|
5%
|
2.55
|
3.606
|
|
|
1%
|
3.351
|
4.587
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ANNEXE 6 : Test de
Causalité
|
VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
|
|
Date: 11/30/20 Time: 21:07
|
|
|
Sample: 2010M01 2019M12
|
|
|
Included observations: 119
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LCE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LCP
|
0.482287
|
1
|
0.4874
|
|
LPE
|
0.398707
|
1
|
0.5278
|
|
LPP
|
2.427771
|
1
|
0.1192
|
|
LDFC
|
2.604048
|
1
|
0.1066
|
|
LIPC
|
3.485975
|
1
|
0.0619
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
16.86215
|
5
|
0.0048
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LCP
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LCE
|
9.726468
|
1
|
0.0018
|
|
LPE
|
3.899163
|
1
|
0.0483
|
|
LPP
|
1.169053
|
1
|
0.2796
|
|
LDFC
|
0.357374
|
1
|
0.5500
|
|
LIPC
|
10.94185
|
1
|
0.0009
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
26.02366
|
5
|
0.0001
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LPE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LCE
|
0.793757
|
1
|
0.3730
|
|
LCP
|
5.283721
|
1
|
0.0215
|
|
LPP
|
0.469135
|
1
|
0.4934
|
|
LDFC
|
2.134727
|
1
|
0.1440
|
|
LIPC
|
7.850651
|
1
|
0.0051
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
11.47861
|
5
|
0.0427
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LPP
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LCE
|
0.096332
|
1
|
0.7563
|
|
LCP
|
5.315120
|
1
|
0.0211
|
|
LPE
|
0.330306
|
1
|
0.5655
|
|
LDFC
|
1.705614
|
1
|
0.1916
|
|
LIPC
|
2.845185
|
1
|
0.0916
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
8.144490
|
5
|
0.1485
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LDFC
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LCE
|
7.147018
|
1
|
0.0075
|
|
LCP
|
1.734047
|
1
|
0.1879
|
|
LPE
|
4.755111
|
1
|
0.0292
|
|
LPP
|
2.380792
|
1
|
0.1228
|
|
LIPC
|
0.265054
|
1
|
0.6067
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
21.47190
|
5
|
0.0007
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LIPC
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LCE
|
1.022387
|
1
|
0.3120
|
|
LCP
|
1.521383
|
1
|
0.2174
|
|
LPE
|
3.267439
|
1
|
0.0707
|
|
LPP
|
0.345171
|
1
|
0.5569
|
|
LDFC
|
7.595562
|
1
|
0.0059
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
49.70732
|
5
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ANNEXE 7 : Tets de robustesse du modèle
ARDL estimé
|
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
1.445462
|
Prob. F(2,104)
|
0.2403
|
|
Obs*R-squared
|
3.164329
|
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
|
0.2055
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Heteroskedasticity Test: ARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
1.977750
|
Prob. F(1,114)
|
0.1623
|
|
Obs*R-squared
|
1.978129
|
Prob. Chi-Square(1)
|
0.1596
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
1.712713
|
Prob. F(10,106)
|
0.1343
|
|
Obs*R-squared
|
30.34976
|
Prob. Chi-Square(10)
|
0.0008
|
|
Scaledexplained SS
|
45.67911
|
Prob. Chi-Square(10)
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ramsey RESET Test
|
|
|
|
Equation: UNTITLED
|
|
|
|
Specification: LCE LCE(-1) LCP LCP(-1) LCP(-2) LCP(-3) LPE LPP
LDFC
|
|
LDFC(-1) LIPC
C
|
|
|
|
Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Value
|
df
|
Probability
|
|
|
t-statistic
|
1.881271
|
105
|
0.0627
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
3.539180
|
(1, 105)
|
0.0627
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ANNEXE 8 : Estimation par la
MCO
|
Dependent Variable: LCE
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 12/01/20 Time: 07:51
|
|
|
|
Sample: 2010M01 2019M12
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 120
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LCP
|
-0.051161
|
0.016729
|
-3.058261
|
0.0028
|
|
LPE
|
-0.344682
|
0.409270
|
-0.842188
|
0.4014
|
|
LPP
|
0.708661
|
0.272891
|
2.596868
|
0.0106
|
|
LDFC
|
-0.017754
|
0.008994
|
-1.973860
|
0.0508
|
|
LIPC
|
0.121663
|
0.059099
|
2.058627
|
0.0418
|
|
C
|
7.394060
|
1.222621
|
6.047711
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.401905
|
Meandependent var
|
10.36130
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.375673
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.168475
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.133119
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-1.146435
|
|
Sumsquaredresid
|
2.020166
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-1.007060
|
|
Log likelihood
|
74.78610
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-1.089834
|
|
F-statistic
|
15.32105
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.370903
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
