ANNEXES
Annexe ni : Données de base utilisées
dans l'analy se économétriques
|
Années
|
PIB du secteur agricole au prix de 1990 (en millions CDF)
|
Aide
alimentaire
(en tonne)
|
Importations
alimentaire
(millier de
tonne)
|
|
1977
|
23.90
|
9.600
|
85.331
|
|
1978
|
27.50
|
9.600
|
85.330
|
|
1979
|
28.32
|
10.670
|
85.332
|
|
1980
|
26.82
|
14.200
|
85.337
|
|
1981
|
25.93
|
15.000
|
85.327
|
|
1982
|
31.45
|
17.260
|
85.346
|
|
1983
|
34.55
|
20.588
|
85.309
|
|
1984
|
31.44
|
19.324
|
85.383
|
|
1985
|
31.82
|
1725
|
85.235
|
|
1986
|
33.62
|
19.830
|
85.531
|
|
1987
|
29.73
|
19.450
|
84.938
|
|
1988
|
29.84
|
18.567
|
86.125
|
|
1989
|
28.58
|
17.570
|
83.750
|
|
1990
|
30.96
|
15.354
|
88.500
|
|
1991
|
41.67
|
14.056
|
79.000
|
|
1992
|
49.42
|
15.024
|
98.000
|
|
1993
|
51.72
|
16.404
|
434.200
|
|
1994
|
57.00
|
20.430
|
25.100
|
|
1995
|
57.00
|
22.567
|
44.242
|
|
1996
|
33.55
|
30.238
|
62.000
|
|
1997
|
48.14
|
40.678
|
88.000
|
|
1998
|
47.48
|
40.978
|
44.000
|
|
1999
|
52.72
|
42.804
|
48.000
|
|
2000
|
49.97
|
45.256
|
68.500
|
|
2001
|
59.74
|
45.764
|
144.000
|
|
2002
|
51.01
|
55.934
|
163.000
|
|
2003
|
51.01
|
60.054
|
184.560
|
|
2004
|
47.26
|
72.000
|
206.707
|
|
2005
|
45.52
|
73.450
|
195.634
|
|
2006
|
45.67
|
75.693
|
201.170
|
|
2007
|
42.47
|
83657
|
198.402
|
Sources : compilation des données de la BCC, la FAO, le
PAM,
l'USAID, le MINIGRA, le SNSA, et le SNS.
Annexe n°2 : Résultats des tests
statistiques du modèle à correction d'erreur
a) Tests sur la spécification du
modèle
Wald Test: Equation: Untitled
Null Hypothesis: C(2)=2/3
C(3)=1/3
F-statistic 10.33569 Probability 0.000435
Chi-square 20.67138 Probability 0.000032
b) Test d'homocédasticité des erreurs
- Test de ARCH
F-statistic 12.52532 Probability 0.001424
Obs*R-squared 9.272218 Probability 0.002327
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/21/11 Time: 12:38
Sample(adjusted): 1978 2007
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.020946 0.005678 3.689140 0.0010
RESID^2(-1) 0.277517 0.078414 3.539113 0.0014
R-squared 0.309074 Mean dependent var 0.033028
Adjusted R-squared 0.284398 S.D. dependent var 0.029376
S.E. of regression 0.024850 Akaike info criterion -4.487549
Sum squared resid 0.017291 Schwarz criterion -4.394136
Log likelihood 69.31323 F-statistic 12.52532
Durbin-Watson stat 1.616516 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001424
|
10 8 6 4 2 0
|
|
|
|
Series: Residuals Sample 1977 2007 Observations 31
Mean -2.80E-16
Median 0.070037
Maximum 0.293476
Minimum -0.561691
Std. Dev. 0.208673
Skewness -0.720965
Kurtosis 2.857270
Jarque-Bera 2.711899
Probability 0.257702
|
|
-0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
c) Test de significativité des
coefficients
Dependent Variable: LPIBA Method: Least Squares
|
Date: 01/21/11 Time: 12:53
Sample: 1977 2007
Included observations: 31
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
-2.651392
|
1.770496 -1.497542
|
0.1454
|
|
LAIDE
|
0.280154
|
0.085192 3.288501
|
0.0027
|
|
LIMPA
|
0.737587
|
1.998420 0.369085
|
0.7148
|
|
R-squared
|
0.288466
|
Mean dependent var
|
-1.392103
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.237642
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.247383
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.215998
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-0.135334
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
1.306338
|
Schwarz criterion
|
0.003439
|
|
Log likelihood
|
5.097677
|
F-statistic
|
5.675791
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.671639
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.008526
|
|
LPIBA
|
LAIDE
|
LIMPA
|
|
LPIBA
|
1.000000
|
0.533858
|
0.116854
|
|
LAIDE
|
0.533858
|
1.000000
|
0.109337
|
|
LIMPA
|
0.116854
|
0.109337
|
1.000000
|
| 
