Towards a more constructive analysis of forced migration : the case of Zimbabwean migrants in Zambia

II An important range of consequences : from negative to constructive impacts of Zimbabwean forced migrants

c. Impacts of Zimbabwean forced migrants in Zambia: negative consequences and benefits for the host country

As it was former said, the arrival of Zimbabwean forced migrants in the region, and especially in Zambia, tends to spread poverty, as most Zimbabweans fleeing their country are destitute and unemployed. Moreover, Zambia is a rather poor country, with about 68% of Zambians living below the recognised national poverty line^10(*). It is also one of the most highly urbanised country in Sub-Saharan Africa and unemployment in urban areas is a serious problem for Zambians, and rural poverty, more severe than urban poverty, is also present is the least developed regions of Zambia, particularly in remote provinces. Southern provinces have a particular high concentration of poverty, the land being less fertile than in the Centre, and the climate being drier. This is particularly important as far as Zimbabweans are concerned, for Zambia shares its border with Zimbabwe in the South of the country, meaning that Zimbabweans fleeing Zimbabwe will end up first in the Southern provinces of Zambia.

As cited by Refugees International, many Zimbabweans have settled on their own in border areas or in major cities, in particular Lusaka. Although there are no official figures for the number of Zimbabweans resident in Lusaka, unofficial estimates have put the figure at 10,000 or more11(*). Other cities, such as Livingstone, Chirundu and Siavonga are major cities on the border with Zimbabwe. It is easy to understand, then, the risk of increase in poverty in the capital, but also in the three main cities in the Southern provinces, as they represent the most highly populated cities, facing over-unemployment. In the cities, it could create important economic tensions, as most Zimbabweans going to Zambia are generally poor, Zimbabweans end up competing with Zambians for scarce resources including healthcare, food, education and so on.

Due to the political instability in Zimbabwe, tourists had begun visiting Zambia instead, but the situation reverses. In the short term, as famous tourist destinations in Zambia are located near the border of Zimbabwe (Victoria Falls, Livingstone City), the continuing arrival of Zimbabweans in these places could bring more economic and social instability, resulting in tourists not wanting to visit the places any more.

The importation of poverty to Zambia is emphasized by the risk of state fragilization faced by Zambia, with the risk of political and social instability in Zimbabwe spreading to Zambia. An example was former described in the essay, when the Zambian government decided to arrest Zimbabweans but also Zambian activists trying to raise their voice against the Mugabe regime during the last Annual Southern African Development Community Heads of State and Government Summit. Moreover, some regional countries, including Zambia, have begun to complain about the economic impact Zimbabwe's decline is having on their national economies. The recent events around the last elections in Zimbabwe (29th March 2008), where official results are not yet published, led to some observers saying the delay has «provoked a constitutional crisis, causing instability in Zimbabwe that threatens to spill over to the region12(*)».

* ¹⁰ Development Indicators Unit, Statistics Division, UN, 30^th November, 2007

* ¹¹ http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=75003

* ¹² « Southern African Leaders Meet on Zimbabwe», Voice of America, 12 April 2008