School of Management | Taiyuan University of Technology
THE EFFECT OF RAISING SEARCHING OBSTACLES ON ONLINE PURCHASING
BEHAVIOR: PROOF FROM FIELD EXPERIMENT
LOKONON KOUDOGBO Boris Helios Zocete
Taiyuan University of Technology Li Qi Geng
AGO Francine Mariette Supervisor
Taiyuan University of Technology Taiyuan University of
Technology
February, 2020
The effect of raising searching obstacles on online
purchasing behavior: Proof from field
experiment
Abstracts
While online retail allows consumers to obtain goods or
services directly from a seller via an additional channel, operating margins
are often lower in online stores than in physical stores. There are well-known
reasons for this disparity: price comparisons are easier to do online, coupons
and codes are more widely adopted, and marketers often bear the cost of
shipping products to buyers. Most online stores are designed for frictionless
shopping, with few barriers to finding and buying discounted products. We
propose that the intentional addition of search frictions - barriers to
locating discounted items - may improve online retailers' margins by allowing
shoppers to choose between «paying with money» (low discount) or
«pay with effort» (high discount). In a series of field experiments
carried out with an electronic commerce platform specializing in diasporas
connecting buyers and sellers, we show that getting customers more difficulties
in finding products at a reduced, reduced price the average discount on items
purchased without reducing the impact of purchases or the average selling
price. By using transaction information from existing customers, we show that
price-sensitive buyers are more likely to make efforts to locate heavily
discounted items. Our results posted that adding research frictions can be used
as a self-selected price discrimination tool to offer high discounts to
price-sensitive consumers and reduce the number of price-insensitive consumer
subsidies.
1
Keywords: e-commerce, online purchasing,
obstacles, search costs, price discrimination
2
1. Introduction
Online retailing expands business access to consumers through
an addition channel, but operating margins are often lower in online stores
than in physical stores. Afrimarket, the largest online reseller in Benin,
achieved average operating margins of 2.8% between 2013 and 2018, while its
traditional counterparts earn between 4% and 8% (Insae, 2018). The reasons for
this difference are well known: price comparisons are easier online, coupons
and codes have higher adoption, and sellers often bear the cost of shipping
products to buyers.
Consumers shop online for products that are also available in
brick-and-mortar stores because it is generally easier to browse a large
selection of goods and fulfill transactions online (Teixeira and Gupta 2015).
Online retailers like Afrimarket, Odjala, and mymotherlandstuffs are
continually striving to lower search, transaction, and delivery costs for
consumers. Afrimarket is the best example of an electronic commerce platform
that systematically reduces the obstacles of online search.
This trend contrasts sharply with the practice of physical
stores that have long accepted the deliberate use of research frictions to
improve store revenues. By making it more difficult to locate discounted or
otherwise less expensive items, by placing the sales section at the back of the
store or in a separate store, physical stores can induce self-selection among
the consumers who stand out. by their sensitivity to price and their
willingness to search.
In this paper, we seek to challenge the prevailing assumption
that minimizing search frictions, i.e., facilitating consumer search across a
retailer's entire assortment, is the optimal strategy for online retailers
selling searchable branded goods (Bakos 1997, Brynjolfsson and Smith 2000). We
argue that, just as in physical sales contexts, careful integration of research
frictions can facilitate price discrimination in online retailing.
The existing literature has typically conceived of search
costs as the time, effort, and money required to physically identify and
consider additional options before making a purchase decision (Bell, Ho and
Tang 1998). Given the ease and immediacy of online shopping, it is not
surprising that equivalent search costs have not been studied as tools that a
company would use to implement discrimination based on price. We identify and
explore the power of search costs in online settings: the effort of clicking an
additional link, displaying an additional page, scrolling through a catalog of
articles, or mentally calculating the discount percentage on
3
a sale item.
We assume that, under certain conditions, an online retailer
can improve its gross margins by increasing the search costs associated with
the search and purchase of discounted items on its website. The first condition
is that there is a negative correlation between price sensitivity and
sensitivity to research costs: consumers who are more concerned about getting
good deals are less concerned about making efforts to locate them. The second
condition is that by encountering these additional research frictions,
price-insensitive consumers would replace very small items with smaller items.
The third condition is that price-sensitive consumers would make the extra
effort required
To test our hypothesis, we conducted a series of field
experiments with online kitchen items and tableware retailer. This category is
particularly attractive for our purpose as it has a moderate frequency and
purchase value. Consumers are broadly aware of price points for kitchen items
and tableware but not completely certain of item prices at any given purchase
occasion. And, luxury brands notwithstanding, item prices are material but not
exorbitant to most shoppers. Lastly, it is common practice for kitchen items
and tableware retailers to frequently offer sizeable discounts to acquire and
retain customers.
As part of the first trial, we randomly distributed new
visitors on an online platform for a week in one of the reference groups or one
of the three treatment groups. The supply and price of the products remain
unchanged under all conditions. Each process means increasing search friction
in some way: (1) deleting the direct contact with the point of sale because of
the large reduction of the point of sale; (2) deleting the order by delivery
option; (3) deleting the delivery mark unique to this article. We note that in
each of these cases, the average discount rate for purchases is much lower than
the control state without reducing the conversion rate. These results
demonstrate the power of the treatments we have chosen and support our
hypothesis.
In a follow-up analysis, we aim to establish the mechanism
underlying the results of our first experience. We use the historical
transaction data of existing customers to pre-classify them according to their
price sensitivity. To do this, we downgrade the last basket update to
demographic and past purchase variables and then use the expected values as an
approximation of price sensitivity. We endorse this classification by showing
that buyers we identify as price-sensitive are much more likely to click on
random price electronic newsletters (rather than on
4
the discounts mentioned).
In our second experiment, we randomly assigned all visitors,
new and existing, to the online store for two weeks, to a control group or one
of four treatment groups. Once again, product availability and prices are kept
constant under all conditions. We are resuming the treatments of our first
experience and include the replacement of discount banners with no discount
banners as an additional condition. The goal is to identify the presence of
self-selection among all of the company's customers, as price-sensitive
consumers are relatively immune to additional search costs, but
price-insensitive consumers are not.
We find that, as in the first experiment, the average discount
on purchased items is lower in the treatment groups than in the control group,
while the conversion rates are not negatively affected by the addition of
research. Also, these gains are attributed to the fact that price-insensitive
consumers purchase a disproportionately larger number of full-price items in
the treatment groups. These results imply that price-insensitive consumers turn
to cheaper items when severely reduced items are harder to find. They also show
that the key effects we capture are stable under varying demand conditions, as
our second experience, which included new and existing customers, was conducted
more than a year after our first experience.
The rest of the document is as follows. We review the
literature on online retail, research costs, and price discrimination in
Section 2. We formalize our hypothesis on the role of research costs in online
purchases of discounted products. Section 3. We describe our empirical
framework in Section 4. Sections 5-8 explain the experimental framework and
provide details on execution. We summarize our findings and suggest future
directions for research in Section 9.
2. Review of Related Literature
This article focuses on two areas of literature: marketing and
economics. The first examines the influence of research costs on consumer
decision-making, particularly in the context of online sales. The second is
price discrimination at the second level, where monopolists determine their
product lines so that higher-value consumers choose higher-quality, more
expensive products themselves. We discuss each literature in turn.
Search Costs in Online Retail
Existing literature on the costs of research in online
environments generally explores the
5
effect of reducing friction between information on consumer
choice, well-being, and market structure. The first articles associated the
decrease in research costs with an increase in competition, especially on
prices (e.g. Bakos, 1997). Subsequent work has shown that online research may
be more expensive than originally thought, perhaps because online shoppers have
higher search costs than offline shoppers, and there may be considerable
heterogeneity in search costs among online shoppers (Brynjolfsson and Smith
2000).
Lynch and Ariely (2000) found conditions in which increased
transparency of online quality could reduce price competition, confirming that
«in a competitive environment, the strategy of maintaining certain high
search costs is likely to fail». Others have shown that some companies
have found it advantageous to artificially increase research costs to promote
price comparison. Ellison and Ellison (2009) show that firms in a market have
an incentive to mask actual price and quality information sold online to reduce
the tendency of search-sensitive consumers to comprehensively compare
prices.
Ellison and Ellison (2005) show, as examples of obfuscation,
how online retailers cost-effectively offer complex price menus, products that
appear to be grouped but are no hidden prices, descriptions complex products,
and other tactics designed «to allow the tendering process to take
sufficient time». They argue that many advances in search engine
technology that are supposed to facilitate the collection of information from
consumers have subsequently been accompanied by business investment to hinder
research.
Our work differs from these documents in that, rather than
analyzing the competitive incentives that drive firms to impede research, we
focus on the potential benefits of price discrimination within firms by
increasing the costs of doing business. research. Although previous work has
recognized the importance of heterogeneous research costs for consumers, none
of our knowledge has examined how this heterogeneity can be exploited by a
monopolistic enterprise in an online context.
Price Discrimination
Varian (1980) formulates a price discrimination plan that
allows a company to extract surpluses of uninformed consumers through high
prices and simultaneously sell to informed consumers through low prices using a
mixed price balance strategy. Recent models with heterogeneous research also
find equilibrium in which sellers adopt a mixed strategy
6
(Ratchford 2009). For example, Stahl (1996) finds a mixed
strategic balance that, when implemented by two retailers, creates a market
divide so that fully informed consumers always buy from the low-cost business
while Uninformed consumers stop at less than a complete search and end up
paying more.
Previous research has shown that differences in learning,
provider switching costs, and risk perception when shopping online lead to
heterogeneity in consumers' willingness to search (Ratchford 2009). These
differences in consumer propensity to search allow retailers to selectively
target price or product promotions with different margins among customers
(Kopalle et al., 2009). The majority of research cost literature assumes that
multiple firms have different levels of research costs (Ratchford, 2009) and
thus separate the market based on the heterogeneity of consumers who are
willing to pay for additional research costs. In this article, we focus on a
single multi-product company that exploits this heterogeneity of search costs
to separate the market to offer different segments to different products and
prices.
We identify ways for a company to increase its profits by
simultaneously offering high prices and low prices, the latter in the form of
discounts, to attract informed and uninformed consumers by using search costs
as a segmentation mechanism. As Ellison and Ellison (2009) predict about
obfuscation, we also expect this approach to increase increments. But unlike
their result, we expect the company to not only capture the fraction of
customers who are willing to incur research costs but also to realize higher
profits from customers who are unwilling to incur high search costs. Besides,
there is no explicit or implicit intention to confuse customers as to the
quality or actual price of an item in the online store. All items and prices
are easily accessible to all consumers on the same website.
Ngwe (2016) shows that fashion stores use travel costs, away
from shopping centers, as a way to encourage shoppers to choose to buy in
stores - which leads to high travel costs to obtain low prices, or buying in
regular downtown stores - resulting in lower travel costs but higher prices.
This form and other forms of deliberate addition of research frictions as a
tool of price discrimination are well known to brick and mortar store managers
and can lead to concrete action. Unfortunately, online retailers cannot charge
travel costs by physically placing their stores. The question is whether
managers of online stores can add non-traditional and «virtual»
search costs to the online shopping process of consumers to obtain the same
benefit of price
7
discrimination. To make matters worse, online store managers
often sell new items and liquidation items through the same channel. Also, it
is not certain that the increase in search costs for a multi-brand
non-proprietary online retailer may be a promising strategy when consumers can
buy cheap substitutes from a competitor within a few clicks from distance
only.
To practice price discrimination, companies must first be able
to identify and distinguish sensitive customers or prospects from the high
prices of low-price customers or prospects. The literature has generally
defined three sets of characteristics associated with price sensitivity: the
characteristics of a person, e.g., demographic characteristics, current
behavioral characteristics, e.g., shopping characteristics, and past purchase
characteristics. Besides, previous literature has shown that demographic
characteristics are primitives of behavioral and purchasing characteristics
(Kim, Srinivasan, and Wilcox 1999). From the variations in each of these
characteristics, companies have tried to offer different prices to different
price-sensitive customers.
Discrimination of prices by demographics: Previous
research has linked demographic variables such as age, sex, income and
geographic location, and consumer price sensitivity (Kim, Srinivasan and
Wilcox, 1999). Traditional retailers and other businesses have used this
knowledge to offer different prices based on demographic profiles. Supermarkets
offer special discounts to retirees, cinemas offer students lower prices,
grocery stores offer discounts depending on location, and educational
institutions tend to offer scholarships and discounts to low-income families.
And because many companies believe that men are more price-sensitive than women
in certain categories, market comparisons have revealed considerable price
differences between virtually identical products for men and women.
The use of price discrimination based on online demographics,
on the other hand, has had mixed success. One obvious reason is that once
consumers know who benefits from the rebate and who does not, they are incited
to misrepresent or hide their identities. As a result, it becomes difficult for
online businesses to distinguish between different demographic characteristics
without requiring proof of identity, which would hinder many clients.
Price discrimination through buying behavior:
Monitoring current buying behavior has also been a ubiquitous tool for
brick and mortar retailers to assess a customer's price sensitivity. The way
consumers browse, search, compare options, and negotiate prices has been
widely
8
observed and used by sellers of expensive products that
require more thought. These include consumer electronics, automobiles, and
homes.
The use of behavioral variables observed during online
shopping has had mixed results. On the one hand, and unlike demographic
variables, search, click, and online navigation patterns are easily observable
without the client having to reveal themselves. Hannak et al. (2014) showed
that among 16 retailers and online travel providers, half of them showed that
they offer different products and/or prices to online shoppers based on the
users' cookies, clicks recorded, whether they have logged in or not, and the
use of the mobile phone or PC to search for products and services. Yet, online,
there are some disadvantages of behavior-based price discrimination if
consumers discover the rules and can emulate the behavior that will allow them
to get the lowest price. Amazon discovered it in 2000 when it offered the same
DVD for fewer buyers who did not have a cookie in their browser, to offer new
customers a cheaper price (CNN 2005). This encouraged Amazon's customers to
delete their cookies or not to log in to the website to obtain lower prices. In
summary, while behavioral price discrimination may be more observable than
demographics or personal characteristics, it is also «playable»
because clients are encouraged to learn to behave in a way that will allow them
to get low prices.
Price discrimination based on purchase history: The
third category of variables that have been associated with price sensitivity is
related to previous purchases. Looking at five categories of groceries, Kim,
Srinivasan, and Wilcox (1999) found that the characteristics of a person's
purchase history, such as previous purchase frequency, quantity purchased,
loyalty, and incidence cheaper items, are strongly associated with individual
price sensitivity, far more than demographic characteristics. Offline grocery
retailers and non-food retailers have successfully used this method by tracking
past consumer purchases using loyalty cards (Lal and Bell 2003) and using this
information to selectively target coupons, the prototype price discrimination
method used. Online, pre-purchase couponing is also ubiquitous. It is
observable and difficult to be playable because it is unlikely that consumers
will buy items that are not their best options at the moment just so they can
get future discounts.
The practice of price discrimination by the history of online
shopping poses two major challenges. First, online retailers that tend not to
have frequent or repeat purchases, such as auto, furniture, or apparel
resellers, do not have good data to reliably estimate the sensitivity
9
of new customers to price. Second, while many industries such
as groceries and fast food tend to offer fidelity-based discounts, the more you
buy, the less expensive, some do the opposite. It has been shown that the
insurance industry generally charges higher prices, not lower, for customer
loyalty (Hughes 2008). The reasoning is that people who tend to stay with their
insurance company for many years are opposed to the stress and hassle of
shopping for better insurance quotes and are therefore less price sensitive.
Insurance companies take advantage of this to increase loyalty customers'
premiums year by year, a «loyalty tax» by charging more than new
customers (Bankrate 2016). In the latter case, higher prices for loyalty,
consumers are encouraged to move from one company to another. The reason most
consumers do not do this is probably because of the considerable effort they
put into doing it. In these cases, purchases that are infrequent or
discouraging redemption, price discrimination from past purchases can have
serious negative effects on firms.
In summary, there are three generalizable categories of
variables associated with an individual's price sensitivity, according to
previous literature. Furthermore, no variable is perfect for price
discrimination in the sense that there are tradeoffs inherent in observability
and «playability». In particular, some variables are better than
others for the implementation of price discrimination policies, depending on
the category of product or industry. Therefore, a good model for estimating
price sensitivity should incorporate as many variables as possible of the three
types, demographic, behavioral, and past purchases. In section 5, we try to
estimate a price sensitivity model specific to each person in our context,
taking into account the constraints linked to the data available to the
company. Previously, we develop the research plan used in this paper.
3. Overview of Research Design
We use both field experience and historical purchase data
analysis in our research plan. All data is provided by an online kitchen and
tableware retailer in Benin. The online retailer sells branded products as well
as articles under its brand. The company offers the largest choice of kitchen
and tableware in the country. The articles are listed on the website under
three catalogs: main catalog, sales catalog, and point-of-sale catalog. The
main catalog contains all full price offers as well as some items at slightly
reduced prices. The sales catalog contains moderate priced items, while the
retail catalog contains very low-priced items, where the precise
10
thresholds between «light», «moderate» and
«deep» vary over time. All products offered by the company are first
listed in the main catalog and then progressively updated and listed in the
other catalogs as new products are introduced.
Our research strategy has four components. The first is an
exploratory field experience in which new visitors to the online store are
randomly exposed to additional research frictions. In the second part, we use a
regression model to classify existing consumers according to their price
sensitivity. Third, we validate our classification by measuring the response
rates to randomly assigned electronic bulletins. Fourth, we expose new and
existing customers at the online store to additional research frictions and
measure how treatment effects affect purchase rates, discounts and margins
differently, depending on the sensitivity to the price estimated by the buyers.
We cover the design and results in the following four sections.
4. Field Experiment I
In this experiment, we are looking for preliminary evidence
that minor changes in website design can have significant effects on buyer
behavior and purchasing results. We vary the presence of website features that
may facilitate or hinder buyers from finding discounted items. We only include
new visitors to the desktop version of the online store because they have
relatively little information about the distribution of available products and
prices. In assessing the results, we are particularly interested in the effects
of processing on the discount levels of the transactions concluded and on the
overall conversion rate. We anticipate that increased search costs will
decrease the likelihood that price-insensitive customers will make the extra
effort required to find products at very low prices, and that these customers
will replace the full-priced items instead.
We experimented on the retailer's website for 15 days. During
this period, all new website visitors were randomly assigned to the control
group or one of three treatment groups with equal probability. New visitors are
defined as customers who do not have the retailer's cookies on their machines
and who register for a new account before making any purchase. Only visitors
who used a desktop computer, laptop, or tablet were included in the study. A
total of 195,806 customers were included in the experiment. Also, only
consumers who access the site through the main home page have been included,
excluding consumers who have visited the site using an electronic coupon,
newsletter or link from a third-party website. During the
11
experiment, no other changes were made to the website.
Descriptions of the testing and processing conditions follow. In each of the
treatment conditions, neither the assortment of products available nor the
prices of the products were different from those of the control condition.
Control
The control condition was simply the website as it was at the
time of the study. The website has elements designed to make it easier for
consumers to find discounted items. Customers have three ways to find discount
items: by clicking on a prominent link from the home page to the store catalog,
sorting products by discount level in each catalog using a drop-down option,
and by consulting the markers which highlight the discounts greater than 40%.
In each of the processing conditions, we eliminate these elements to increase
the effort required to locate items at reduced prices.
Treatment 1: No link to outlet catalog from the main
landing page
In this condition, we are eliminating the simplest path to
discounts: the exit link from genre-specific landing pages. Other links to the
outlet catalog can be found in the «selling» section of the website,
requiring an additional click from a buyer to access the outlet catalog
compared to those of the comparison group. This treatment represents a very
slight increase in research friction which constitutes a solid test of our
hypothesis.
Treatment 2: No discount filter and no discount
markers
Here we are removing the second easiest way to find discount
items after the point of sale link: the ability for consumers to order product
listings based on the level of discount. We are also removing the accompanying
discount markers, which provide visual cues to identify high discounts. These
items are widely used by online retailers to facilitate the search and
navigation of buyers.
Treatment 3: No outlet link, no discount filter, and
no discount markers
In this last treatment, we implement the largest increase in
search frictions by deleting all the elements of the site deleted piecemeal in
the first two treatments. This is an effort to significantly increase the
magnitude of the research costs charged to buyers looking for discounts.
12
Outcome Variables
Our main goal is to find out whether obstructing consumers'
search for high discount products leads some of them to buy fewer discount
products and replace them with regular priced items to improve the retailer
profitability. To assess the effects of each treatment, we take into account
several variables:
· Average discount: the average ratio of sales prices to
original prices on items purchased in each processing group. Since each
treatment makes it more difficult to locate discounts, we expect the percentage
of discounts to be lower in processing conditions compared to control on
average.
· Percent full-priced purchases: the proportion of items
purchased sold without discount. Historically, more than 50% of purchases on
the site are made at a high price. An increase in this rate in our treatment
groups would support our hypothesis while maintaining a constant conversion
rate.
· Conversion rate: percentage of consumers who choose to
purchase on the website during the trial period. Since a large part of the
seller's assortment becomes more difficult to see in the processing conditions,
it is reasonable to expect the conversion rate to decrease.
Results
Table 1 shows that clients in the three treatment groups
purchased items at significantly lower discounts on average (9.5 to 11.3% off
versus 15.5% off) and that they purchased more items at full price (65.5% to
68.7% versus 60.8%). Consequently, the average selling prices of the items
purchased in the three treatments were considerably higher than in the control
state, which confirms our initial hypothesis.
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Table 1: Results of Field Experiment I
Group
|
Sample size
|
Average discount
|
Percent of full- priced purchases
|
Average selling price
|
Control
|
30,015
|
15.7%
|
60.8%
|
397
|
Treatment 1
|
30,159
|
9.5%
|
68.7%
|
495
|
Treatment 2
|
30,243
|
11.3%
|
65.5%
|
675
|
Treatment 3
|
30,050
|
9.7%
|
67.0%
|
650
|
A natural concern is that if the search frictions for finding
discount items are too large, then the expected result of reducing discount
purchases could also be accompanied by lower conversion rates. This is of
particular concern for new price-sensitive buyers. However, we did not find any
significant decrease in conversion rates, measured by the number of
transactions carried out. There was no significant difference in conversion
rates between treatment group 3 and the control group. And the conversion rates
were even slightly higher in treatments 1 and 2.
To verify the robustness of our main finding, we carried out a
comparison between the treatments and the control groups at the level of the
shopping basket (compared to the article) to compare the differences in
purchasing behavior compared to the size and composition of the basket.
Confirming the main results at the item level, Table 2 shows that the average
discount on baskets purchased by consumers in two of the three treatments is
significantly lower than that of the control group (12.1% to 13.2% compared to
14.8%). For treatment 3, it is slightly lower. The average basket size in all
treatment groups was not significantly smaller than in the control group.
Table 2: Basket level results from Field Experiment
I
Group
|
Average discount
|
Average basket size
|
Control
|
14.8%
|
1011
|
Treatment 1
|
12.1%
|
1277
|
Treatment 2
|
13.2%
|
1682
|
Treatment 3
|
12.0%
|
1388
|
These results strongly support our hypothesis and demonstrate
the effectiveness of the manipulations we have chosen. Our results show that
online retailers can increase their margins without sacrificing conversion by
slightly increasing the search frictions associated with their
14
reduced offers. In an environment without search frictions,
price-insensitive consumers can locate discounted options «for free».
By adding search frictions, online retailers can provide a semi-permeable way
to close these consumers down to full-price options while offering discount
options available to price-conscious buyers extra efforts to find them. In the
following sections, we examine in more detail the mechanism underlying our main
results.
5. Measuring Price Sensitivity
A full test of our hypothesis requires assessing the
differential impact of research frictions on price-insensitive customers
compared to price-sensitive customers. The expected impact on purchasing
behavior is expected to disproportionately affect the former. In this section,
we develop a sparse empirical model of price sensitivity for buyers in our
context. This serves two purposes. First, it uses a new and unique set of data
to identify the relevant determinants of price sensitivity. Second, it provides
us with a way to pre-classify consumers based on their expected price
sensitivity. We then use the predicted values from this model as an
approximation of a buyer's price sensitivity. After estimating the model, we
assess its predictive accuracy by comparing the behavior of groups of
pre-classified buyers in a validation experiment in the field.
Data
The data in this analysis consists of historical sales
registers at the retailer's transaction level since its creation in October
2016 until October 2019. Over 2.1 million individual items were sold, 318,050
consumers have made more than a million transactions during this period. Each
record (an item sold) contains buyer attributes, product attributes, and
transaction attributes. Tables 3 and 4 describe the available data and basic
summary statistics on operations.
Table 3: Classification data set summary
statistics
Start date
|
3 October 2016
|
End date
|
30 October 2019
|
Number of records (items sold)
|
2,100,002
|
Number of transactions
|
1,000,004
|
Number of unique customers
|
300,050
|
Number of unique items
|
400,875
|
Number of unique brands
|
1,881
|
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Table 4: Transaction summary statistics
|
Mean
|
S.D.
|
Item selling price
|
551.49
|
600.50
|
Item original price
|
803.43
|
987.00
|
Discount percent
|
15.80
|
19.94
|
Items per transaction Basket size
|
2.17
|
2.30
|
Item selling price
|
1,147.28
|
1,541.37
|
Model
We estimate a simple price sensitivity model to determine,
through field monitoring experience, whether price sensitive (rather than
insensitive) buyers are more willing to bear the search costs of finding
discounted items online. As the primary objective of the estimation is not to
identify the primitives of consumer behavior, but to distinguish consumers who
are price-insensitive from price-sensitive consumers, we adopt a parsimonious
model that aims to explain the discount at the level from the basket of
transactions made. The underlying assumption is that very price-sensitive buyer
is more likely to buy discounted items than price-sensitive buyers. The
categories of variables explaining the preference for discounts include
demographic characteristics, past transaction behavior, and purchasing
conditions known to be associated with the search for discount behavior. For
each buyer I in month t, we have:
discount_preference?? t=??
(consumer_attributes??,
shopping_behavior??, t-1, shopping_conditions??
t)
The covariates available to us for each the three categories are
as follows:
Shopper attributes
|
Prior transaction behavior
|
Current shopping conditions
|
Gender
|
Prior markdowns
|
Period (month)
|
Age
|
Prior coupon redemption
|
Positive store credit
|
Billing region
|
Number of completed orders
|
Coupon redemption
|
|
Store brand ratio
|
|
|
Time since the first transaction
|
|
We carry out a series of Tobit regressions of the average
basket discount on these covariates and present the estimates in Table 5. We
use the Tobit model since the markdowns on the baskets are a censored
approximation to the left (at zero) of the price sensitivity, our conceptual
16
variable of interest. To assess the relative importance of
demographics, past transaction behavior, and current purchasing conditions, we
estimate separate regressions for each subcategory of explanatory variables in
addition to the full model.
Model results
In general, we find that the relationships between consumer
attributes, past purchasing behavior, current purchasing conditions, and
current purchasing behavior are strong and robust when using different choices
of covariates. Each category of explanatory variables improves the model's
ability to predict preference for discounts. The observed discounts are lower
for men and older customers. They are higher for customers who have previously
purchased products at higher prices, used coupons, and more store-branded
items. In the meantime, markdowns are lower for consumers who redeem coupons
for an ongoing purchase, who use the store credit and who have more
transactions already made.
We use the empirical model estimated in this section to
pre-classify buyers according to their level of price sensitivity to articulate
the mechanism behind our main result in Field Experience 1. Indeed, we use all
the information available on consumers to obtain this classification, by
assigning weights to each variable according to its estimated coefficient. We
consider this to be superior to an ad hoc classification, for example, by
grouping buyers according to the average discount in their purchase history.
However, we also recognize the shortcomings of this approach due to the
aggregation of information, the absence of purchasing or purchasing decisions,
and the evolution of the assortment over time. To increase our confidence in
the resulting classification, we seek to establish its external validity. In
the next section, we describe how we validate our classification model using
electronic newsletters as part of a field experiment.
Table 5: Tobit regression
EQUATION
|
VARIABLES
|
(1)
basket_markdown
|
(2)
basket_markdown
|
(3)
basket_markdown
|
(4)
basket_markdown
|
model
|
male
|
-0.0254***
|
|
|
-0.0197***
|
|
|
(0.000865)
|
|
|
(0.00108)
|
|
cust_age
|
-1.26e-06***
|
|
|
1.11e-06***
|
|
|
(1.06e-07)
|
|
|
(1.26e-07)
|
|
prev_markdown
|
|
0.396***
|
|
0.392***
|
|
|
|
(0.00200)
|
|
(0.00199)
|
17
|
prev_coupon
|
|
0.0325***
|
|
0.0458***
|
|
|
|
(0.000907)
|
|
(0.000948)
|
|
order
|
|
-0.000645***
|
|
0.000500***
|
|
|
|
(4.90e-05)
|
|
(4.92e-05)
|
|
prev_sb_ratio
|
|
0.0170***
|
|
0.0125***
|
|
|
|
(0.00125)
|
|
(0.00124)
|
|
cust_hist
|
|
1.74e-05***
|
|
1.49e-05***
|
|
|
|
(2.05e-06)
|
|
(2.04e-06)
|
|
wallet
|
|
|
0.0150***
|
-0.00323**
|
|
|
|
|
(0.00143)
|
(0.00147)
|
|
coupon
|
|
|
-0.0336***
|
-0.0544***
|
|
|
|
|
(0.000766)
|
(0.000956)
|
|
Constant
|
0.141***
|
-0.0166***
|
0.0704***
|
0.0278***
|
|
|
(0.00748)
|
(0.000760)
|
(0.00125)
|
(0.0100)
|
sigma
|
Constant
|
0.331***
|
0.310***
|
0.329***
|
0.307***
|
|
|
(0.000338)
|
(0.000392)
|
(0.000336)
|
(0.000388)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Billing region FE
|
yes
|
|
|
yes
|
|
Month FE
|
|
|
|
yes
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Observations
|
1,112,297
|
698,456
|
1,112,298
|
698,456
|
|
Pseudo R2
|
0.00324
|
0.0576
|
0.0105
|
0.0729
|
6. Validation Experiment
In this section, we test the external validity of our
empirical model of price sensitivity. We sent email newsletters about discounts
and rebates to randomly assigned consumers and we checked to see if the
classification determined by the Tobit model in the previous section was
associated with a higher response rate for emails. discount (as opposed to
non-discount) price-sensitive consumers (as opposed to price-insensitive). We
find that consumers whose model predicts that they will be price sensitive are
more receptive to messages that include a discount element. Experimental
Design
We include in this experience the entire mailing list of the
company, which has 246,688 consumers. A consumer signs up for the mailing list
by providing their email address to the business by creating an account,
signing up for updates, or requesting a coupon. Consumers were randomly
assigned to two groups, now Group 1 and Group 2, and each group received a
schedule of newsletters with and without discounts, as shown in Table 6.
18
The control bulletins sent on Sunday were not focused on
discounts and were identical from one group to another, whereas within each
day, only the discount and discount messages were different from one group to
another. For each newsletter sent, we observe if the email has been opened and
which link in the email, if any, has been clicked by the recipient. We also
observe all transactions on the website, which we can link to consumers
participating in the experience by their email address.
The product categories in electronic newsletters varied from
day to day but remained constant between control and treatment groups within a
few days. We have also ensured that all the creative elements of the
newsletters remain constant so that only the messages at a reduced price (for
example «up to -40%») and all the price information vary during
execution. This variation in messages was reflected in the subject of the
message.
Table 6: Schedule of newsletter treatments
|
Group 1 (50%)
|
Group 2 (50%)
|
Sunday
|
Control
|
Control
|
Monday
|
Discount
|
Full price
|
Tuesday
|
Discount
|
Full price
|
Wednesday
|
Discount
|
Full price
|
Thursday
|
Full price
|
Discount
|
Friday
|
Full price
|
Discount
|
The frequency with which customers on the mailing list choose
to receive newsletters varies. 63.34% of subscribers receive them every day,
4.32% three times a week, and 35.35% once a week. The schedule for the
newsletter presented in Table 6 was designed to obtain maximum variation among
consumers, regardless of their frequency, as well as to minimize the effects of
the day of the week.
To establish the validity of the classification on the Tobit
model, we generate predicted values from the model according to the purchase
history of each consumer before the experience of the newsletter. Our model can
be taken as an indication of price sensitivity if consumers we expect to be
more (rather than less) price-sensitive have a greater propensity to open and
click on discount emails. Since the final experience will compare the average
purchasing behavior of one group of consumers to another, price-sensitive, or
insensitive, the
19
classification model should be precise only at the group level
rather than at the level individual. Table 7:
Regressions on newsletter response variables
VARIABLES
|
(1) open
|
(2) click
|
(3)
click open
|
disc
|
-0.0149*
|
-0.00103
|
0.0188
|
|
(0.00811)
|
(0.00417)
|
(0.0181)
|
price_sensitivity
|
0.0402
|
0.0248
|
0.0868
|
|
(0.0297)
|
(0.0153)
|
(0.0671)
|
disc*price_sensitivity
|
0.125***
|
0.0505**
|
0.0728
|
|
(0.0420)
|
(0.0216)
|
(0.0933)
|
Constant
|
0.207***
|
0.0328***
|
0.152***
|
|
(0.00630)
|
(0.00324)
|
(0.0141)
|
|
|
|
|
day dummies
|
yes
|
yes
|
yes
|
|
|
|
|
Observations
|
106,534
|
106,534
|
22,043
|
R-squared
|
0.002
|
0.001
|
0.003
|
Standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, *
p<0.1
We regress the variables of the results of the bulletin
according to our variables of interest. Each record in the following
regressions is an email-client pair. The dependent variables are binary, where
success is either an open email or a clicked email. The independent variables
are an email discount dummy, the price sensitivity predicted from the empirical
model, the interaction between email discount and price sensitivity, and the
day of the week.
We find that our measure of price sensitivity is positively
correlated with the probability of responding to a discount email compared to
an email without discounts. Table 7 examines the relationship between price
sensitivity and three response variables: (1) if the email was opened, (2) if a
link in the email was clicked, and (3) if a link was clicked. provided the
email is opened. We find that price sensitivity is positively associated with
the first two measures, whose sample size was almost five times that of the
third measure.
The exogenous allocation of newsletters with and without
discounts provides us with an additional means of pre-classifying consumers.
Rather than relying on purchase history to infer price sensitivity, we can
project the probability of responding to a newsletter on consumer attributes
versus a newsletter without discount and thus have a means based on a model
for
20
predicting price sensitivity. Now that we have established the
validity of our price sensitivity classification approach, we can use it to
characterize how purchasing behaviors differ in online retail environments by
price sensitivity.
7. Field Experiment II
In our last experiment, we study how the response of buyers to
additional search frictions varies depending on price sensitivity. As with
Field Experience I, we expose consumers to different versions of the online
store, each with an additional search friction element. We compare the results
against the control over retailers' performance measures and use our predictive
models from the previous section to characterize the heterogeneity of consumer
response.
We carried out this experience from June 1 to 15, 2019 on the
desktop and tablet versions of the online store. In the following analysis, we
use the data from June 2 to 14 to eliminate the possibility of contamination
from the start and end of implantation. All consumers were randomly assigned to
the control group or one of the four treatment groups with equal
probability. While in Field Experience I,we only included new
visitors entering through the
main landing pages, here we include new consumers as well as
returning consumers, regardless
of which page they are viewing in first. The processing
conditions are as follows:
Treatment 1: Removal of links from main pages to points
of sale and sales sections of the
website
Treatment 2: Removal of discount flags
Treatment 3: Removal of the sorting option for
discounts
Treatment 4: Replacement of discount banners with
non-discount banners
Unlike experiment 1, we separate the removal of the discount
flags and the sorting options into two different treatments for reasons of
completeness. We are also adding a fourth treatment, the use of banners without
discounts throughout the site because this communication approach is the
equivalent on the website of the email treatments used in the previous
validation experience.
Results
Before examining the impact of price sensitivity on consumers'
propensity to find and buy
21
discounted items, we perform the same analysis as in Table 8,
which groups all types of consumers. By further validating the main conclusions
of experiment I, this time by including current customers rather than only new
customers, we find that the removal of the discount flags, sorting by discount
and discount banners (treatments 2 to 4) decreases both the average discount of
items purchased and the impact of purchasing items on sale. As in the past,
this objective is achieved without reducing conversion rates. An exception to
this rule, and contrary to the conclusions of experiment I, is the null effect
of the removal of the links to the points of sale and the sales from the home
page (treatment 1). It appears that current customers were not as dissuaded as
new customers from finding the high discounts at the point of sale section of
the website. This is not so surprising since many buyers probably already knew
of the existence of the point of sale and only had to go through an additional
click to find it. In summary, except for this processing, the addition of
research costs has a very similar qualitative impact on new and existing
customers.
Table 8: Main results
Treatment Group
Control
|
Number of visitors
|
Average discount of sold items
|
Percent of items
bought at full price
|
Number of orders (Conversion rate)
|
Treatment 1 No
outlet and sales links
|
68,343
|
18.25%
|
49%
|
1,351 (1.98%)
|
Treatment 2 No
discount markers
|
70,058
|
17.32%
|
50%
|
1,599 (2.28%)
|
Treatment 3 No
discount sorting
|
70,025
|
16.69%
|
52%
|
1,605 (2.29%)
|
Treatment 4 No
discount banners
|
69,859
|
17.09%
|
51%
|
1,605 (2.30%)
|
A more precise test of our forecasts is to show an interaction
between a buyer's price sensitivity and their willingness to incur search costs
to find discounted items. The use of regular customers, while changing the
«navigability» of the website is, in our opinion, a very rigorous
test of this prediction. First of all, customers have memories and we expect
them to remember that very discounted items exist on the platform. Second, our
manipulations are quite subtle (that is, they slightly increase search costs)
and do not cause any change in sales prices or the assortment of products.
Third, fashion retail is a category in which buyers have a pretty
22
good idea of when prices are high or a good deal and maybe
more motivated to leave the website if they can't find a discount. Despite
these challenges, we find that price sensitivity still plays a moderating role
in the impact of research frictions on the likelihood of purchasing items at
reduced prices.
Table 9: Proportion of items bought at full
price
Price sensitivity
|
Control
|
Treatment 1 No outlet and sale links
|
Treatment 2 No discount markers
|
Treatment 3 No discount sorting
|
Treatment 4 No discount banners
|
Low
|
58.7%
|
67.8%
|
66.6%
|
63.9%
|
67.5%
|
Medium
|
54.0%
|
52.1%
|
57.0%
|
53.1%
|
57.0%
|
High
|
36.3%
|
40.8%
|
38.4%
|
32.6%
|
33.2%
|
In Table 9, we group consumers into three quartiles based on
their price sensitivity, as set out in Section 5. We find that
price-insensitive consumers are more likely to buy items at full price across
the entire market (see the first row). In three of the four processing
conditions, we observe a statistically significant increase in the proportion
of full-price items purchased by customers with little price sensitivity.
Equally remarkable, this is not the case for consumers sensitive to average or
high prices, who willingly incur research costs to benefit from discounts. This
result provides additional evidence, by including current users and adding
other forms of search costs to the website, online retailers can improve
margins and, therefore, their profitability, by deliberately adding costs
friction.
23
8. Conclusion
Online retail represents a rapidly growing proportion of all
retail sales. However, margins in online retail can often be lower than in
offline retail. One of the guesses behind this discrepancy is that online
sellers are less able to discriminate by price than offline sellers. In this
article, we explore how charging research costs to online buyers can improve
gross margins by serving as a sorting mechanism among customers.
We find encouraging evidence that minor changes to the design
of an online store (i.e. friction) can significantly improve its margins and
profitability. By simply increasing search frictions - by removing selected
links, reducing product sorting options, and limiting visual markers - online
sellers can make more full-price sales to price-sensitive buyers who have
higher search costs. Although significant enough to influence the purchasing
behavior of price-insensitive buyers, these search frictions are minor enough
for price-sensitive buyers to make the extra effort to locate discounted items.
As a result, the average selling price increases as the number of items sold
remains stable.
Our results have direct implications for online sellers.
Without changing prices or the product mix, online sellers can improve their
margins by making subtle changes to their website design. We note that this is
essentially free manipulation with low data requirements, but which can lead to
significant margin gains. Our point of view implies that by unduly favoring the
ease of research and purchase, online sellers give up their gross margins by
granting discounts to price-insensitive consumers.
Adding search frictions, we expected some decrease in
conversion: by making high discounts more difficult to find, some
price-sensitive consumers might choose not to spend more time and effort on the
website and leave. We find it rather surprising that the conversion rates are
not lower, and even higher in some of our processing conditions. This can be
explained by branding effects: by hiding high discounts, new customers can
perceive the seller as being of better quality, which increases the number of
purchases. Another possible explanation can be explained by the overload of
choice associated with very large assortments so that a more limited set of
considerations can improve the expected utility (e.g., Iyengar and Lepper,
2000). For our research question, the point to remember is that any improvement
in unit margins does not necessarily have to be at the expense of weaker
conversions. This is a speculative statement
24
and more research is needed in the online retail field to
validate it and provide boundary conditions.
Our research also suggests that certain online browsing
behaviors can be painful enough or take enough time for buyers to pay more. We
consider it useful to conduct future research to determine the specific
properties of online interaction that consumers find most demanding. This can
provide useful advice for a wide range of applications, from online store
design to digital advertising.
25
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|