Investissements et croissance économique. Cas des secteurs de l’énergie et de l’eau au Bénin.

ANNEXES

ANNEXE 1 : Séries des variables

Année	PIB	INVP	INVG	INVG_EAU	INVG_ENERGIE
1982	98277,7858	25417,6213	12246,2956	203,614002	0,023886959
1983	99638,1502	27431,3713	13179,091	241,155141	0,042344234
1984	101017,345	29604,6636	14182,9369	285,617891	0,075063308
1985	102415,63	31950,1384	15263,2455	338,278419	0,133064167
1986	103833,271	34481,437	16425,8406	400,648183	0,235881857
1987	105270,534	37213,2815	17676,9902	474,517312	0,418146013
1988	106727,693	40161,5607	19023,4393	562,005992	0,741244324
1989	108205,021	46612,3578	18399,6267	665,625315	1,313998295
1990	109702,798	50976,1022	18274,8203	788,349352	2,329314996
1991	110860,995	52073,0092	22927,0178	933,700517	4,129159353
1992	110550,351	45733,4235	27752,5678	1105,85067	7,319730047
1993	113369,21	53560,7938	31256,7734	1309,74083	12,97563096
1994	112071,698	53969,4395	32164,3006	1551,22306	23,00180441
1995	115166,326	65533,7988	27782,9367	1837,22834	40,77512745
1996	116394,503	70694,2059	26588,5894	2175,96558	72,28176489
1997	119203,038	74072,0417	30481,7141	2577,15717	128,1333465
1998	120008,069	72590,1763	40327,88	3052,31809	227,1410295
1999	122398,78	76362,3408	45024,5697	3615,08634	402,6512122
2000	124244,001	79731,1941	50759,7346	4281,61447	713,7768063
2001	127759,501	87372,9567	54862,1556	5071,03308	1265,306831
2002	129089,283	84173,3453	60337,5289	6006	2243
2003	129734,113	88126,1897	62165,1194	7465,153	1273
2004	129398,906	93136,2115	64669,663	6123,382	2317,727
2005	128719,858	99351,3033	67922,9237	10050,322	620,203
2006	129122,195	107597,462	73560,5264	13126,864	3599,649
2007	130590,631	96484,8774	89473,7971	30210,368	10658,15086
2008	132543,61	99030,1902	75956,9226	28278,9877	35575,524
2009	131475,103	101115,409	83370,931	36097,284	48895,495
2010	130254,369	107947,505	84958,2878	23603,367	37527,366
2011	130164,707	188697,312	90960,1834	19576,054	20727,5275
2012	132526,972	203647,146	97888,5834	16775,5289	19688,84843
2013	133379,218	219781,402	105344,717	19515,5361	21597,20439

ANNEXE 2 : Séries des variables (suite)

Année	CRED	TAXE	DET	CONSENERGIE	VENTE_EAU	SP
1982	77136,5463	10008,0989	-11920,348	109304,57	9898886,61	16436,7575
1983	84928,0337	10195,2383	-9394,9668	117527,672	10294554,1	18071,132
1984	93506,5316	10385,8769	-7404,5990	126369,407	10706036,7	19868,0191
1985	102951,535	10580,0803	-5835,9	135876,316	11133966,7	21843,578
1986	113350,569	10777,9151	-5531	146098,439	11579001,4	24015,5749
1987	124800	10979,4491	-15438	157089,584	12041824,6	26403,5425
1988	137840	10167,5229	7011	168907,605	12523147,2	29028,9554
1989	103428,7	7396,25887	-16782,8	181614,708	13023708,7	31915,424
1990	102070,9	7420,72473	11168,3	195277,781	13544278,2	30897,733
1991	85853,6	8424,29309	-559	209968,742	14085655,2	29156,068
1992	69394	9604,44812	13341	225764,919	14648671,6	28069,947
1993	67720,6	10169,8994	321350	242749,461	15234192,3	34530,897
1994	76021,5	10232,1388	628430	261011,767	15843116,7	68970,972
1995	81447,1	11359,4385	703070	280647,967	16476380,4	76842,126
1996	102395,9	11806,5905	757160	301761,42	17134956,3	66879,122
1997	71700	11994,8637	748220	324463,261	17819856	57188,011
1998	100130	12607,8851	771500	348872,987	18532131,8	58344,864
1999	154637	13105,3387	847700	375119,082	19272877,8	63020,778
2000	194030	13937,5095	910470	403339,7	20043232,2	89707,23
2001	192837	13496,2777	974366,787	460448,63	20844378,3	97219,422
2002	222228	14436,0678	941640	551544,91	21677547	71664,629
2003	293849	14858,7906	832600	572832,3	22544018,2	80029,659
2004	312052	14551,313	826250	606411,4	23445123	81928,169
2005	375102	14530,2944	919452,832	641025,8	25689675	44790,6918
2006	415821	15400,7688	519765	669801,2	24899032	66804,09
2007	527641	16928,1245	299733	726466,774	24256657	88692,626
2008	624476	17241,6023	415090	798232,612	27882157	122237,88
2009	698548	16095,2392	463310,434	843367,389	28070545	108592,25
2010	757818	16181,9874	582884,602	915930,445	28789460	63437,6546
2011	844960	15544,6384	613652,545	900744,585	31949723	97960
2012	924440	15531,9367	638883,878	955864,497	32580517	107700,566
2013	1022600	16278,8186	834777,966	1021628,68	32881269	118409,677

ANNEXE 3: Test ADF

Null Hypothesis: LINVG has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic - based on t-statistic, lagpval=0.1, maxlag=7)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-2.289360	0.0237
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.650145
	5% level		-1.953381
	10% level		-1.609798
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LINVG)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 10:08
Sample (adjusted): 1986 2013
Included observations: 28 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LINVG(-1)	-0.014860	0.006491	-2.289360	0.0312
D(LINVG(-1))	0.036379	0.182049	0.199832	0.8433
D(LINVG(-2))	-0.135615	0.180223	-0.752486	0.4591
D(LINVG(-3))	-0.430452	0.182206	-2.362442	0.0266
R-squared	0.233960	Mean dependent var		0.027488
Adjusted R-squared	0.138205	S.D. dependent var		0.097681
S.E. of regression	0.090680	Akaike info criterion		-1.831401
Sum squared resid	0.197348	Schwarz criterion		-1.641086
Log likelihood	29.63962	Hannan-Quinn criter.		-1.773220
Durbin-Watson stat	2.240796

Null Hypothesis: LINVG has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic - based on t-statistic, lagpval=0.1, maxlag=7)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-2.289360	0.0237
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.650145
	5% level		-1.953381
	10% level		-1.609798
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LINVG)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 10:11
Sample (adjusted): 1986 2013
Included observations: 28 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LINVG(-1)	-0.014860	0.006491	-2.289360	0.0312
D(LINVG(-1))	0.036379	0.182049	0.199832	0.8433
D(LINVG(-2))	-0.135615	0.180223	-0.752486	0.4591
D(LINVG(-3))	-0.430452	0.182206	-2.362442	0.0266
R-squared	0.233960	Mean dependent var		0.027488
Adjusted R-squared	0.138205	S.D. dependent var		0.097681
S.E. of regression	0.090680	Akaike info criterion		-1.831401
Sum squared resid	0.197348	Schwarz criterion		-1.641086
Log likelihood	29.63962	Hannan-Quinn criter.		-1.773220
Durbin-Watson stat	2.240796

Date: 03/14/15 Time: 10:37
Sample: 1982 2013
Included observations: 32
Autocorrelation	Partial Correlation				AC		PAC	Q-Stat		Prob
. |******|	. |******|			1	0.816		0.816	23.385		0.000
. |***** |	. | . |			2	0.686		0.058	40.430		0.000
. |***** |	. |* . |			3	0.641		0.199	55.826		0.000
. |**** |	. *| . |			4	0.520		-0.195	66.339		0.000
. |*** |	. | . |			5	0.437		0.056	74.032		0.000
. |*** |	. | . |			6	0.389		-0.005	80.377		0.000
. |*** |	. |* . |			7	0.353		0.096	85.792		0.000
. |**. |	. *| . |			8	0.277		-0.146	89.272		0.000
. |* . |	. *| . |			9	0.176		-0.135	90.737		0.000
. |* . |	. | . |			10	0.108		-0.055	91.315		0.000
. | . |	. | . |			11	0.043		-0.018	91.410		0.000
. | . |	. | . |			12	-0.019		-0.006	91.430		0.000
. *| . |	. *| . |			13	-0.077		-0.087	91.771		0.000
. *| . |	. *| . |			14	-0.131		-0.067	92.802		0.000
. *| . |	. | . |			15	-0.180		-0.059	94.873		0.000
.**| . |	. | . |			16	-0.225		-0.005	98.323		0.000
Null Hypothesis: VENTE_EAU has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 6 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
						t-Statistic			Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic						-3.503698			0.0165
Test critical values:		1% level				-3.724070
		5% level				-2.986225
		10% level				-2.632604
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(VENTE_EAU)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 10:51
Sample (adjusted): 1989 2013
Included observations: 25 after adjustments
Variable		Coefficient	Std. Error			t-Statistic			Prob.
VENTE_EAU(-1)		-0.369450	0.105446			-3.503698			0.0027
D(VENTE_EAU(-1))		-0.429563	0.176851			-2.428958			0.0265
D(VENTE_EAU(-2))		-1.315453	0.221755			-5.932005			0.0000
D(VENTE_EAU(-3))		-0.610754	0.268575			-2.274056			0.0362
D(VENTE_EAU(-4))		-1.639922	0.363150			-4.515820			0.0003
D(VENTE_EAU(-5))		-0.850218	0.261002			-3.257510			0.0046
D(VENTE_EAU(-6))		-1.466231	0.380437			-3.854070			0.0013
C		1.286396	0.340052			3.782936			0.0015
R-squared		0.820861	Mean dependent var						0.018269
Adjusted R-squared		0.747098	S.D. dependent var						0.110492
S.E. of regression		0.055566	Akaike info criterion						-2.688162
Sum squared resid		0.052488	Schwarz criterion						-2.298122
Log likelihood		41.60203	Hannan-Quinn criter.						-2.579981
F-statistic		11.12833	Durbin-Watson stat						1.916537
Prob(F-statistic)		0.000029

Null Hypothesis: LINVG has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-3.728543	0.0357
Test critical values:	1% level		-4.296729
	5% level		-3.568379
	10% level		-3.218382
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LINVG)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 10:57
Sample (adjusted): 1984 2013
Included observations: 30 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LINVG(-1)	-0.643053	0.172468	-3.728543	0.0009
D(LINVG(-1))	0.427067	0.181022	2.359199	0.0261
C	-2.197424	0.598908	-3.669049	0.0011
@TREND(1982)	0.019574	0.005628	3.478105	0.0018
R-squared	0.355692	Mean dependent var		0.027779
Adjusted R-squared	0.281349	S.D. dependent var		0.094259
S.E. of regression	0.079906	Akaike info criterion		-2.092361
Sum squared resid	0.166010	Schwarz criterion		-1.905535
Log likelihood	35.38542	Hannan-Quinn criter.		-2.032594
F-statistic	4.784460	Durbin-Watson stat		2.215236
Prob(F-statistic)	0.008735

Null Hypothesis: LINVG_EAU has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 2 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-6.251435	0.0001
Test critical values:	1% level		-4.309824
	5% level		-3.574244
	10% level		-3.221728
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LINVG_EAU)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 10:57
Sample (adjusted): 1985 2013
Included observations: 29 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LINVG_EAU(-1)	-0.920844	0.147301	-6.251435	0.0000
D(LINVG_EAU(-1))	0.648468	0.156140	4.153116	0.0004
D(LINVG_EAU(-2))	0.981641	0.147273	6.665442	0.0000
C	-7.140680	1.162948	-6.140152	0.0000
@TREND(1982)	0.120287	0.020054	5.998144	0.0000
R-squared	0.697438	Mean dependent var		0.104160
Adjusted R-squared	0.647011	S.D. dependent var		0.216535
S.E. of regression	0.128650	Akaike info criterion		-1.107861
Sum squared resid	0.397218	Schwarz criterion		-0.872120
Log likelihood	21.06398	Hannan-Quinn criter.		-1.034030
F-statistic	13.83064	Durbin-Watson stat		2.181326
Prob(F-statistic)	0.000006

Null Hypothesis: TAXE has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-2.355232	0.0201
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.641672
	5% level		-1.952066
	10% level		-1.610400
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(TAXE)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 11:02
Sample (adjusted): 1983 2013
Included observations: 31 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
TAXE(-1)	-0.031139	0.013221	-2.355232	0.0252
R-squared	0.051074	Mean dependent var		-0.000479
Adjusted R-squared	0.051074	S.D. dependent var		0.001381
S.E. of regression	0.001345	Akaike info criterion		-10.35298
Sum squared resid	5.43E-05	Schwarz criterion		-10.30672
Log likelihood	161.4712	Hannan-Quinn criter.		-10.33790
Durbin-Watson stat	1.364688

Null Hypothesis: LINVG_ENERGIE has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 4 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-4.482267	0.0001
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.653401
	5% level		-1.953858
	10% level		-1.609571
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LINVG_ENERGIE)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 11:04
Sample (adjusted): 1987 2013
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LINVG_ENERGIE(-1)	-0.085918	0.019168	-4.482267	0.0002
D(LINVG_ENERGIE(-1))	-0.120258	0.178441	-0.673937	0.5074
D(LINVG_ENERGIE(-2))	0.300489	0.160607	1.870951	0.0747
D(LINVG_ENERGIE(-3))	-0.458546	0.165237	-2.775084	0.0110
D(LINVG_ENERGIE(-4))	-0.466936	0.190369	-2.452799	0.0226
R-squared	0.485638	Mean dependent var		0.381636
Adjusted R-squared	0.392117	S.D. dependent var		0.588063
S.E. of regression	0.458494	Akaike info criterion		1.443838
Sum squared resid	4.624775	Schwarz criterion		1.683808
Log likelihood	-14.49182	Hannan-Quinn criter.		1.515194
Durbin-Watson stat	2.064935

Null Hypothesis: LINVG_EAU has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 4 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
			t-Statistic	Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic			-3.433706	0.0013
Test critical values:	1% level		-2.653401
	5% level		-1.953858
	10% level		-1.609571
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LINVG_EAU)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 11:05
Sample (adjusted): 1987 2013
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LINVG_EAU(-1)	-0.033877	0.009866	-3.433706	0.0024
D(LINVG_EAU(-1))	0.057854	0.198032	0.292143	0.7729
D(LINVG_EAU(-2))	0.547584	0.166522	3.288365	0.0034
D(LINVG_EAU(-3))	-0.633283	0.167891	-3.771983	0.0011
D(LINVG_EAU(-4))	-0.455337	0.247754	-1.837860	0.0796
R-squared	0.576997	Mean dependent var		0.102419
Adjusted R-squared	0.500088	S.D. dependent var		0.224608
S.E. of regression	0.158808	Akaike info criterion		-0.676671
Sum squared resid	0.554837	Schwarz criterion		-0.436701
Log likelihood	14.13506	Hannan-Quinn criter.		-0.605315
Durbin-Watson stat	1.964500

ANNEXE 4 : Tests de causalité de Granger

VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 14:00
Sample: 1982 2013
Included observations: 25
Dependent variable: LPIB
Excluded	Chi-sq		df		Prob.
INVG_ENERGIE	19.95735		7		0.0057
INVG_EAU	20.90530		7		0.0039
All	34.00754		14		0.0021
Dependent variable: INVG_ENERGIE
Excluded	Chi-sq		df		Prob.
LPIB	97.78135		7		0.0000
INVG_EAU	801.2399		7		0.0000
All	1636.650		14		0.0000
Dependent variable: INVG_EAU
Excluded	Chi-sq		df		Prob.
LPIB	1040.107		7		0.0000
INVG_ENERGIE	53599.41		7		0.0000
All	405464.4		14		0.0000
VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 13:39
Sample: 1982 2013
Included observations: 25
Dependent variable: PIB_TETE
Excluded	Chi-sq		df		Prob.
INVG_ENERGIE	21.74814		7		0.0028
INVG_EAU	22.63209		7		0.0020
All	37.84423		14		0.0005
Dependent variable: INVG_ENERGIE
Excluded	Chi-sq		df		Prob.
PIB_TETE	97.48514		7		0.0000
INVG_EAU	747.4835		7		0.0000
All	1631.831		14		0.0000
Dependent variable: INVG_EAU
Excluded	Chi-sq		df		Prob.
PIB_TETE	1165.521		7		0.0000
INVG_ENERGIE	51038.34		7		0.0000
All	454214.5		14		0.0000
VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 17:56
Sample: 1982 2013
Included observations: 28
Dependent variable: INVG_EAU
Excluded	Chi-sq		df		Prob.
INVG_ENERGIE	246946.0		4		0.0000
LINVG_EAU	53425.97		4		0.0000
LINVG_ENERGIE	22172.12		4		0.0000
LPIB	13432.50		4		0.0000
PIB_TETE	14360.59		4		0.0000
All	4.89E+08		20		0.0000
Dependent variable: INVG_ENERGIE
Excluded	Chi-sq		df		Prob.
INVG_EAU	49592.41		4		0.0000
LINVG_EAU	25355.92		4		0.0000
LINVG_ENERGIE	24260.11		4		0.0000
LPIB	98075.49		4		0.0000
PIB_TETE	119192.9		4		0.0000
All	1.33E+08		20		0.0000
Dependent variable: LINVG_EAU
Excluded	Chi-sq		df		Prob.
INVG_EAU	55527.46		4		0.0000
INVG_ENERGIE	65417.59		4		0.0000
LINVG_ENERGIE	60905.38		4		0.0000
LPIB	43828.44		4		0.0000
PIB_TETE	45705.22		4		0.0000
All	1.26E+08		20		0.0000
Dependent variable: LINVG_ENERGIE
Excluded	Chi-sq		df		Prob.
INVG_EAU	30181.91		4		0.0000
INVG_ENERGIE	96028.79		4		0.0000
LINVG_EAU	21173.25		4		0.0000
LPIB	42850.84		4		0.0000
PIB_TETE	51729.93		4		0.0000
All	6106794.		20		0.0000
Dependent variable: LPIB
Excluded	Chi-sq		df		Prob.
INVG_EAU	429.6642		4		0.0000
INVG_ENERGIE	369.1419		4		0.0000
LINVG_EAU	638.2744		4		0.0000
LINVG_ENERGIE	542.1127		4		0.0000
PIB_TETE	250.2691		4		0.0000
All	4191.993		20		0.0000
Dependent variable: PIB_TETE
Excluded	Chi-sq		df		Prob.
INVG_EAU	439.5930		4		0.0000
INVG_ENERGIE	360.8051		4		0.0000
LINVG_EAU	651.9976		4		0.0000
LINVG_ENERGIE	540.5400		4		0.0000
LPIB	370.9961		4		0.0000
All	5082.092		20		0.0000
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 17:45
Sample (adjusted): 1986 2013
Included observations: 28 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
		INVG_EAU		INVG_ENERGIE		LINVG_EAU		LINVG_ENERGIE	LPIB	PIB_TETE
INVG_EAU(-1)		1.119259		-7.548870		125.3474		-3380.591	-86.22501	-9730268.
		(0.03471)		(0.08439)		(3.26998)		(45.0735)	(33.7313)	(3745570)
		[ 32.2472]		[-89.4559]		[ 38.3328]		[-75.0018]	[-2.55623]	[-2.59781]
INVG_EAU(-2)		-8.556350		15.17003		-1272.455		5215.429	850.3604	96768970
		(0.10856)		(0.26395)		(10.2279)		(140.982)	(105.506)	(1.2E+07)
		[-78.8149]		[ 57.4740]		[-124.410]		[ 36.9936]	[ 8.05986]	[ 8.25992]
INVG_EAU(-3)		3.604295		7.754199		703.8456		4302.769	-659.6048	-73844302
		(0.08496)		(0.20656)		(8.00431)		(110.332)	(82.5680)	(9168463)
		[ 42.4232]		[ 37.5392]		[ 87.9333]		[ 38.9985]	[-7.98863]	[-8.05416]
INVG_EAU(-4)		7.706079		-15.26753		753.7551		-5581.114	-279.2164	-33108752
		(0.09147)		(0.22238)		(8.61721)		(118.780)	(88.8903)	(9870498)
		[ 84.2508]		[-68.6554]		[ 87.4709]		[-46.9871]	[-3.14114]	[-3.35431]
INVG_ENERGIE(-1)		4.008724		-5.010438		484.5387		-2502.051	-235.4617	-27050188
		(0.03771)		(0.09169)		(3.55281)		(48.9720)	(36.6488)	(4069538)
		[ 106.302]		[-54.6482]		[ 136.382]		[-51.0914]	[-6.42481]	[-6.64699]
INVG_ENERGIE(-2)		-7.416046		9.352842		-857.4442		3830.174	430.7465	49427814
		(0.07164)		(0.17417)		(6.74916)		(93.0305)	(69.6206)	(7730764)
		[-103.521]		[ 53.6990]		[-127.045]		[ 41.1711]	[ 6.18706]	[ 6.39365]
INVG_ENERGIE(-3)		5.201903		-10.47298		557.8797		-4766.420	-223.4408	-25984806
		(0.04207)		(0.10227)		(3.96314)		(54.6280)	(40.8816)	(4539544)
		[ 123.660]		[-102.401]		[ 140.767]		[-87.2523]	[-5.46557]	[-5.72410]
INVG_ENERGIE(-4)		-6.533936		10.44506		-795.2436		3917.134	411.0884	47136895
		(0.06574)		(0.15984)		(6.19371)		(85.3742)	(63.8908)	(7094526)
		[-99.3874]		[ 65.3481]		[-128.395]		[ 45.8820]	[ 6.43423]	[ 6.64412]
LINVG_EAU(-1)		-0.000831		0.035125		-3.544785		10.57981	4.478161	499058.9
		(0.00035)		(0.00086)		(0.03316)		(0.45707)	(0.34205)	(37982.2)
		[-2.35981]		[ 41.0473]		[-106.901]		[ 23.1470]	[ 13.0919]	[ 13.1393]
LINVG_EAU(-2)		0.046099		0.048515		10.79319		29.75469	-10.58201	-1190703.
		(0.00121)		(0.00294)		(0.11403)		(1.57176)	(1.17625)	(130612.)
		[ 38.0882]		[ 16.4868]		[ 94.6539]		[ 18.9308]	[-8.99640]	[-9.11631]
LINVG_EAU(-3)		-0.003052		-0.208431		-5.421741		-90.61683	8.321437	917850.1
		(0.00090)		(0.00220)		(0.08508)		(1.17273)	(0.87763)	(97453.3)
		[-3.37924]		[-94.9318]		[-63.7257]		[-77.2697]	[ 9.48171]	[ 9.41836]
LINVG_EAU(-4)		0.001744		0.080082		5.735815		44.21204	-7.260576	-799947.2
		(0.00051)		(0.00124)		(0.04787)		(0.65986)	(0.49382)	(54834.1)
		[ 3.43242]		[ 64.8229]		[ 119.817]		[ 67.0019]	[-14.7030]	[-14.5885]
LINVG_ENERGIE(-1)		-0.007126		0.008092		-0.985313		3.545118	0.802021	91394.74
		(0.00011)		(0.00027)		(0.01033)		(0.14243)	(0.10659)	(11835.9)
		[-64.9702]		[ 30.3452]		[-95.3553]		[ 24.8901]	[ 7.52435]	[ 7.72182]
LINVG_ENERGIE(-2)		0.006275		-0.002369		1.894722		1.053511	-1.951971	-218586.0
		(0.00019)		(0.00046)		(0.01784)		(0.24591)	(0.18403)	(20435.1)
		[ 33.1389]		[-5.14641]		[ 106.204]		[ 4.28410]	[-10.6067]	[-10.6966]
LINVG_ENERGIE(-3)		-0.004039		-0.044793		-2.362182		-20.07406	2.582373	287617.3
		(0.00025)		(0.00060)		(0.02344)		(0.32314)	(0.24182)	(26852.5)
		[-16.2326]		[-74.0412]		[-100.763]		[-62.1224]	[ 10.6787]	[ 10.7110]
LINVG_ENERGIE(-4)		-0.006461		0.049139		-0.273671		17.36785	-0.094346	-8454.654
		(0.00014)		(0.00033)		(0.01281)		(0.17652)	(0.13210)	(14668.3)
		[-47.5304]		[ 148.693]		[-21.3709]		[ 98.3930]	[-0.71422]	[-0.57639]
LPIB(-1)		0.066640		-0.623074		8.120464		-223.0022	4.338246	396554.2
		(0.00107)		(0.00260)		(0.10081)		(1.38956)	(1.03989)	(115471.)
		[ 62.2792]		[-239.503]		[ 80.5528]		[-160.484]	[ 4.17182]	[ 3.43423]
LPIB(-2)		0.100774		-0.137504		19.14090		-36.62380	-13.77810	-1438286.
		(0.00339)		(0.00823)		(0.31895)		(4.39647)	(3.29015)	(365343.)
		[ 29.7666]		[-16.7056]		[ 60.0115]		[-8.33028]	[-4.18768]	[-3.93681]
LPIB(-3)		-0.186221		0.395220		-38.23456		121.6921	30.82067	3562175.
		(0.00207)		(0.00504)		(0.19546)		(2.69421)	(2.01625)	(223887.)
		[-89.7597]		[ 78.3530]		[-195.614]		[ 45.1680]	[ 15.2862]	[ 15.9106]
LPIB(-4)		0.091630		0.506212		22.11596		220.6689	-25.61946	-3104818.
		(0.00332)		(0.00808)		(0.31301)		(4.31451)	(3.22882)	(358532.)
		[ 27.5796]		[ 62.6686]		[ 70.6562]		[ 51.1458]	[-7.93463]	[-8.65981]
PIB_TETE(-1)		-6.57E-07		5.65E-06		-0.000108		0.001994	4.10E-06	1.257448
		(7.3E-09)		(1.8E-08)		(6.8E-07)		(9.4E-06)	(7.1E-06)	(0.78422)
		[-90.3465]		[ 320.001]		[-157.049]		[ 211.335]	[ 0.58037]	[ 1.60344]
PIB_TETE(-2)		-6.65E-07		1.88E-06		-8.99E-05		0.000677	3.33E-05	2.823076
		(2.6E-08)		(6.3E-08)		(2.5E-06)		(3.4E-05)	(2.5E-05)	(2.80866)
		[-25.5352]		[ 29.7624]		[-36.6642]		[ 20.0251]	[ 1.31699]	[ 1.00513]
PIB_TETE(-3)		1.63E-06		-5.53E-06		0.000282		-0.001951	-0.000189	-22.30357
		(1.6E-08)		(3.8E-08)		(1.5E-06)		(2.1E-05)	(1.5E-05)	(1.70714)
		[ 103.010]		[-143.710]		[ 188.924]		[-94.9701]	[-12.3210]	[-13.0649]
PIB_TETE(-4)		-7.55E-07		-3.49E-06		-0.000141		-0.001469	0.000161	20.28348
		(2.8E-08)		(6.9E-08)		(2.7E-06)		(3.7E-05)	(2.8E-05)	(3.05676)
		[-26.6704]		[-50.6991]		[-52.7353]		[-39.9339]	[ 5.84950]	[ 6.63562]
C		-0.656353		-1.626504		-101.3093		-901.8811	42.98881	4752360.
		(0.03602)		(0.08757)		(3.39339)		(46.7745)	(35.0043)	(3886927)
		[-18.2226]		[-18.5735]		[-29.8549]		[-19.2815]	[ 1.22810]	[ 1.22265]
R-squared		1.000000		1.000000		1.000000		1.000000	0.999991	0.999992
Adj. R-squared		1.000000		1.000000		1.000000		1.000000	0.999921	0.999932
Sum sq. resids		1.72E-12		1.02E-11		1.52E-08		2.90E-06	1.62E-06	20006.27
S.E. equation		7.57E-07		1.84E-06		7.13E-05		0.000983	0.000735	81.66245
F-statistic		1.47E+08		44136716		2.49E+08		14183802	14302.76	16447.51
Log likelihood		386.1792		361.3035		258.9038		185.4455	193.5618	-131.7326
Akaike AIC		-25.79851		-24.02168		-16.70741		-11.46039	-12.04013	11.19519
Schwarz SC		-24.60904		-22.83221		-15.51794		-10.27093	-10.85066	12.38466
Mean dependent		0.008464		0.006365		-5.281414		-8.072018	11.70167	121170.2
S.D. dependent		0.008659		0.011524		1.060373		3.489358	0.082923	9874.109
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)				2.70E-73
Determinant resid covariance				4.09E-79
Log likelihood				2288.566
Akaike information criterion				-152.7547
Schwarz criterion				-145.6179

VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 17:56
Sample: 1982 2013
Included observations: 28
Dependent variable: INVG_EAU
Excluded	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
INVG_ENERGIE	246946.0	4	0.0000
LINVG_EAU	53425.97	4	0.0000
LINVG_ENERGIE	22172.12	4	0.0000
LPIB	13432.50	4	0.0000
PIB_TETE	14360.59	4	0.0000
All	4.89E+08	20	0.0000
Dependent variable: INVG_ENERGIE
Excluded	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
INVG_EAU	49592.41	4	0.0000
LINVG_EAU	25355.92	4	0.0000
LINVG_ENERGIE	24260.11	4	0.0000
LPIB	98075.49	4	0.0000
PIB_TETE	119192.9	4	0.0000
All	1.33E+08	20	0.0000
Dependent variable: LINVG_EAU
Excluded	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
INVG_EAU	55527.46	4	0.0000
INVG_ENERGIE	65417.59	4	0.0000
LINVG_ENERGIE	60905.38	4	0.0000
LPIB	43828.44	4	0.0000
PIB_TETE	45705.22	4	0.0000
All	1.26E+08	20	0.0000
Dependent variable: LINVG_ENERGIE
Excluded	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
INVG_EAU	30181.91	4	0.0000
INVG_ENERGIE	96028.79	4	0.0000
LINVG_EAU	21173.25	4	0.0000
LPIB	42850.84	4	0.0000
PIB_TETE	51729.93	4	0.0000
All	6106794.	20	0.0000
Dependent variable: LPIB
Excluded	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
INVG_EAU	429.6642	4	0.0000
INVG_ENERGIE	369.1419	4	0.0000
LINVG_EAU	638.2744	4	0.0000
LINVG_ENERGIE	542.1127	4	0.0000
PIB_TETE	250.2691	4	0.0000
All	4191.993	20	0.0000
Dependent variable: PIB_TETE
Excluded	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
INVG_EAU	439.5930	4	0.0000
INVG_ENERGIE	360.8051	4	0.0000
LINVG_EAU	651.9976	4	0.0000
LINVG_ENERGIE	540.5400	4	0.0000
LPIB	370.9961	4	0.0000
All	5082.092	20	0.0000

Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 18:05
Sample (adjusted): 1987 2013
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
	LINVG_EAU	LINVG_ENERGIE	INVG_EAU	INVG_ENERGIE
LINVG_EAU(-1)	0.249228	-15.91418	0.001907	-0.039946
	(0.57441)	(5.25815)	(0.00217)	(0.01433)
	[ 0.43388]	[-3.02658]	[ 0.87840]	[-2.78752]
LINVG_EAU(-2)	3.103490	-14.81887	0.020478	-0.041949
	(1.10412)	(10.1071)	(0.00417)	(0.02755)
	[ 2.81082]	[-1.46619]	[ 4.90642]	[-1.52291]
LINVG_EAU(-3)	-8.137393	68.50680	-0.036963	0.207891
	(4.24502)	(38.8588)	(0.01605)	(0.10590)
	[-1.91693]	[ 1.76297]	[-2.30351]	[ 1.96301]
LINVG_EAU(-4)	-3.178201	31.35771	-0.012361	0.079624
	(1.75030)	(16.0222)	(0.00662)	(0.04367)
	[-1.81580]	[ 1.95714]	[-1.86828]	[ 1.82347]
LINVG_EAU(-5)	6.894626	-77.09660	0.026558	-0.216709
	(3.38414)	(30.9783)	(0.01279)	(0.08443)
	[ 2.03733]	[-2.48873]	[ 2.07610]	[-2.56682]
LINVG_ENERGIE(-1)	-1.590760	20.87588	-0.008076	0.053884
	(0.75041)	(6.86925)	(0.00284)	(0.01872)
	[-2.11985]	[ 3.03904]	[-2.84708]	[ 2.87825]
LINVG_ENERGIE(-2)	1.246151	-20.78323	0.003367	-0.058182
	(0.80385)	(7.35838)	(0.00304)	(0.02005)
	[ 1.55023]	[-2.82443]	[ 1.10818]	[-2.90122]
LINVG_ENERGIE(-3)	3.020359	-23.39009	0.014982	-0.068276
	(1.77977)	(16.2920)	(0.00673)	(0.04440)
	[ 1.69705]	[-1.43568]	[ 2.22701]	[-1.53770]
LINVG_ENERGIE(-4)	-2.039492	1.952857	-0.013650	0.017622
	(1.05242)	(9.63382)	(0.00398)	(0.02626)
	[-1.93791]	[ 0.20271]	[-3.43111]	[ 0.67119]
LINVG_ENERGIE(-5)	-0.135873	24.32515	0.003469	0.057796
	(0.44014)	(4.02902)	(0.00166)	(0.01098)
	[-0.30870]	[ 6.03748]	[ 2.08484]	[ 5.26346]
INVG_EAU(-1)	813.0458	-5774.726	4.361761	-16.32337
	(410.579)	(3758.43)	(1.55200)	(10.2430)
	[ 1.98024]	[-1.53647]	[ 2.81041]	[-1.59360]
INVG_EAU(-2)	-1671.411	14820.35	-9.175640	41.66988
	(684.904)	(6269.59)	(2.58896)	(17.0869)
	[-2.44036]	[ 2.36385]	[-3.54414]	[ 2.43871]
INVG_EAU(-3)	1612.942	-15256.69	7.161701	-47.06755
	(835.048)	(7644.00)	(3.15651)	(20.8326)
	[ 1.93156]	[-1.99590]	[ 2.26887]	[-2.25932]
INVG_EAU(-4)	2148.676	-16029.00	11.96578	-45.23051
	(984.380)	(9010.99)	(3.72099)	(24.5581)
	[ 2.18277]	[-1.77883]	[ 3.21575]	[-1.84177]
INVG_EAU(-5)	-3433.233	25553.05	-14.77250	77.54015
	(1719.86)	(15743.6)	(6.50114)	(42.9068)
	[-1.99623]	[ 1.62308]	[-2.27230]	[ 1.80718]
INVG_ENERGIE(-1)	860.6510	-9337.757	4.767891	-23.46538
	(338.495)	(3098.57)	(1.27952)	(8.44471)
	[ 2.54258]	[-3.01357]	[ 3.72630]	[-2.77871]
INVG_ENERGIE(-2)	-2192.888	24261.53	-10.80427	66.40600
	(1013.54)	(9277.95)	(3.83123)	(25.2857)
	[-2.16358]	[ 2.61497]	[-2.82005]	[ 2.62623]
INVG_ENERGIE(-3)	1375.666	-20394.47	6.030291	-55.11402
	(783.568)	(7172.75)	(2.96191)	(19.5483)
	[ 1.75564]	[-2.84333]	[ 2.03594]	[-2.81938]
INVG_ENERGIE(-4)	758.4344	6562.156	3.446275	14.55468
	(804.319)	(7362.71)	(3.04035)	(20.0660)
	[ 0.94295]	[ 0.89127]	[ 1.13351]	[ 0.72534]
INVG_ENERGIE(-5)	-1526.395	2878.184	-8.478241	9.583156
	(955.667)	(8748.14)	(3.61245)	(23.8418)
	[-1.59721]	[ 0.32901]	[-2.34695]	[ 0.40195]
C	-6.166127	-19.36448	0.004008	-0.021232
	(6.79835)	(62.2319)	(0.02570)	(0.16960)
	[-0.90700]	[-0.31117]	[ 0.15598]	[-0.12518]
R-squared	0.999989	0.999909	0.999998	0.999946
Adj. R-squared	0.999951	0.999607	0.999990	0.999764
Sum sq. resids	0.000310	0.026001	4.43E-09	1.93E-07
S.E. equation	0.007191	0.065829	2.72E-05	0.000179
F-statistic	26398.52	3308.307	132996.8	5504.469
Log likelihood	115.2356	55.45251	265.8422	214.8917
Akaike AIC	-6.980412	-2.552038	-18.13646	-14.36235
Schwarz SC	-5.972539	-1.544165	-17.12858	-13.35448
Mean dependent	-5.217852	-7.836348	0.008743	0.006601
S.D. dependent	1.024773	3.320989	0.008695	0.011674
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)		1.24E-30
Determinant resid covariance		3.03E-33
Log likelihood		857.6048
Akaike information criterion		-57.30406
Schwarz criterion		-53.27257

Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 18:05
Sample (adjusted): 1987 2013
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
	LINVG_EAU	LINVG_ENERGIE	INVG_EAU	INVG_ENERGIE
LINVG_EAU(-1)	0.249228	-15.91418	0.001907	-0.039946
	(0.57441)	(5.25815)	(0.00217)	(0.01433)
	[ 0.43388]	[-3.02658]	[ 0.87840]	[-2.78752]
LINVG_EAU(-2)	3.103490	-14.81887	0.020478	-0.041949
	(1.10412)	(10.1071)	(0.00417)	(0.02755)
	[ 2.81082]	[-1.46619]	[ 4.90642]	[-1.52291]
LINVG_EAU(-3)	-8.137393	68.50680	-0.036963	0.207891
	(4.24502)	(38.8588)	(0.01605)	(0.10590)
	[-1.91693]	[ 1.76297]	[-2.30351]	[ 1.96301]
LINVG_EAU(-4)	-3.178201	31.35771	-0.012361	0.079624
	(1.75030)	(16.0222)	(0.00662)	(0.04367)
	[-1.81580]	[ 1.95714]	[-1.86828]	[ 1.82347]
LINVG_EAU(-5)	6.894626	-77.09660	0.026558	-0.216709
	(3.38414)	(30.9783)	(0.01279)	(0.08443)
	[ 2.03733]	[-2.48873]	[ 2.07610]	[-2.56682]
LINVG_ENERGIE(-1)	-1.590760	20.87588	-0.008076	0.053884
	(0.75041)	(6.86925)	(0.00284)	(0.01872)
	[-2.11985]	[ 3.03904]	[-2.84708]	[ 2.87825]
LINVG_ENERGIE(-2)	1.246151	-20.78323	0.003367	-0.058182
	(0.80385)	(7.35838)	(0.00304)	(0.02005)
	[ 1.55023]	[-2.82443]	[ 1.10818]	[-2.90122]
LINVG_ENERGIE(-3)	3.020359	-23.39009	0.014982	-0.068276
	(1.77977)	(16.2920)	(0.00673)	(0.04440)
	[ 1.69705]	[-1.43568]	[ 2.22701]	[-1.53770]
LINVG_ENERGIE(-4)	-2.039492	1.952857	-0.013650	0.017622
	(1.05242)	(9.63382)	(0.00398)	(0.02626)
	[-1.93791]	[ 0.20271]	[-3.43111]	[ 0.67119]
LINVG_ENERGIE(-5)	-0.135873	24.32515	0.003469	0.057796
	(0.44014)	(4.02902)	(0.00166)	(0.01098)
	[-0.30870]	[ 6.03748]	[ 2.08484]	[ 5.26346]
INVG_EAU(-1)	813.0458	-5774.726	4.361761	-16.32337
	(410.579)	(3758.43)	(1.55200)	(10.2430)
	[ 1.98024]	[-1.53647]	[ 2.81041]	[-1.59360]
INVG_EAU(-2)	-1671.411	14820.35	-9.175640	41.66988
	(684.904)	(6269.59)	(2.58896)	(17.0869)
	[-2.44036]	[ 2.36385]	[-3.54414]	[ 2.43871]
INVG_EAU(-3)	1612.942	-15256.69	7.161701	-47.06755
	(835.048)	(7644.00)	(3.15651)	(20.8326)
	[ 1.93156]	[-1.99590]	[ 2.26887]	[-2.25932]
INVG_EAU(-4)	2148.676	-16029.00	11.96578	-45.23051
	(984.380)	(9010.99)	(3.72099)	(24.5581)
	[ 2.18277]	[-1.77883]	[ 3.21575]	[-1.84177]
INVG_EAU(-5)	-3433.233	25553.05	-14.77250	77.54015
	(1719.86)	(15743.6)	(6.50114)	(42.9068)
	[-1.99623]	[ 1.62308]	[-2.27230]	[ 1.80718]
INVG_ENERGIE(-1)	860.6510	-9337.757	4.767891	-23.46538
	(338.495)	(3098.57)	(1.27952)	(8.44471)
	[ 2.54258]	[-3.01357]	[ 3.72630]	[-2.77871]
INVG_ENERGIE(-2)	-2192.888	24261.53	-10.80427	66.40600
	(1013.54)	(9277.95)	(3.83123)	(25.2857)
	[-2.16358]	[ 2.61497]	[-2.82005]	[ 2.62623]
INVG_ENERGIE(-3)	1375.666	-20394.47	6.030291	-55.11402
	(783.568)	(7172.75)	(2.96191)	(19.5483)
	[ 1.75564]	[-2.84333]	[ 2.03594]	[-2.81938]
INVG_ENERGIE(-4)	758.4344	6562.156	3.446275	14.55468
	(804.319)	(7362.71)	(3.04035)	(20.0660)
	[ 0.94295]	[ 0.89127]	[ 1.13351]	[ 0.72534]
INVG_ENERGIE(-5)	-1526.395	2878.184	-8.478241	9.583156
	(955.667)	(8748.14)	(3.61245)	(23.8418)
	[-1.59721]	[ 0.32901]	[-2.34695]	[ 0.40195]
C	-6.166127	-19.36448	0.004008	-0.021232
	(6.79835)	(62.2319)	(0.02570)	(0.16960)
	[-0.90700]	[-0.31117]	[ 0.15598]	[-0.12518]
R-squared	0.999989	0.999909	0.999998	0.999946
Adj. R-squared	0.999951	0.999607	0.999990	0.999764
Sum sq. resids	0.000310	0.026001	4.43E-09	1.93E-07
S.E. equation	0.007191	0.065829	2.72E-05	0.000179
F-statistic	26398.52	3308.307	132996.8	5504.469
Log likelihood	115.2356	55.45251	265.8422	214.8917
Akaike AIC	-6.980412	-2.552038	-18.13646	-14.36235
Schwarz SC	-5.972539	-1.544165	-17.12858	-13.35448
Mean dependent	-5.217852	-7.836348	0.008743	0.006601
S.D. dependent	1.024773	3.320989	0.008695	0.011674
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)		1.24E-30
Determinant resid covariance		3.03E-33
Log likelihood		857.6048
Akaike information criterion		-57.30406
Schwarz criterion		-53.27257

VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 18:07
Sample: 1982 2013
Included observations: 27
Dependent variable: LINVG_EAU
Excluded	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
LINVG_ENERGIE	83.87515	5	0.0000
INVG_EAU	56.63411	5	0.0000
INVG_ENERGIE	48.09128	5	0.0000
All	10599.98	15	0.0000
Dependent variable: LINVG_ENERGIE
Excluded	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
LINVG_EAU	27.73492	5	0.0000
INVG_EAU	64.03684	5	0.0000
INVG_ENERGIE	132.6841	5	0.0000
All	959.2716	15	0.0000
Dependent variable: INVG_EAU
Excluded	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
LINVG_EAU	196.3591	5	0.0000
LINVG_ENERGIE	664.8819	5	0.0000
INVG_ENERGIE	181.7997	5	0.0000
All	256242.7	15	0.0000
Dependent variable: INVG_ENERGIE
Excluded	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
LINVG_EAU	25.13038	5	0.0001
LINVG_ENERGIE	31.26578	5	0.0000
INVG_EAU	68.55523	5	0.0000
All	12679.48	15	0.0000

ANNEXE 5 : Estimations économétriques

System: SYST1
Estimation Method: Generalized Method of Moments
Date: 01/27/15 Time: 22:32
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Total system (balanced) observations 93
Kernel: Bartlett, Bandwidth: Fixed (4), No prewhitening
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
C(1)	12.53050	0.132221	94.76924	0.0000
C(2)	0.058838	0.015027	3.915588	0.0002
C(3)	0.280288	0.016902	16.58329	0.0000
C(4)	0.096343	0.054199	1.777576	0.0794
C(5)	4.385246	0.897401	4.886610	0.0000
C(6)	-0.366396	0.078247	-4.682555	0.0000
C(7)	0.121815	0.011153	10.92166	0.0000
C(8)	0.390505	0.373874	1.044483	0.2995
C(9)	0.040047	0.004077	9.822384	0.0000
C(10)	-5.243205	0.420268	-12.47587	0.0000
C(11)	-0.055147	0.007176	-7.685347	0.0000
C(12)	0.456286	0.054111	8.432428	0.0000
C(13)	0.000815	0.000504	1.619002	0.1095
C(14)	0.471431	0.017973	26.22954	0.0000
C(15)	0.024623	0.002707	9.097295	0.0000
Determinant residual covariance		1.32E-12
J-statistic		0.259817
Equation: LPIB= C(1) + C(2)*LINVP+C(3)*LINVG+ C(4)*LN
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
CONSENERGIE(-1) VENTE_EAU(-1) C
Observations: 31
R-squared	0.913601	Mean dependent var		11.68439
Adjusted R-squared	0.904002	S.D. dependent var		0.095305
S.E. of regression	0.029529	Sum squared resid		0.023543
Durbin-Watson stat	1.055643
Equation: INVP=C(5)+ C(6)*LPIB(-1)+ C(7)*CRED+C(8)*INVG+C(9)*DET
+C(10)*TAXE
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
CONSENERGIE(-1) VENTE_EAU(-1) C
Observations: 31
R-squared	0.769130	Mean dependent var		0.098647
Adjusted R-squared	0.722956	S.D. dependent var		0.022096
S.E. of regression	0.011630	Sum squared resid		0.003382
Durbin-Watson stat	1.291036
Equation: INVG=C(11)+C(12)*TAXE+C(13)*DET+C(14)*CONSENERGIE(-1)
+C(15)*VENTE_EAU(-1)
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
CONSENERGIE(-1) VENTE_EAU(-1) C
Observations: 31
R-squared	0.898182	Mean dependent var		0.055764
Adjusted R-squared	0.882518	S.D. dependent var		0.015677
S.E. of regression	0.005373	Sum squared resid		0.000751
Durbin-Watson stat	1.172121
System: SYST2
Estimation Method: Generalized Method of Moments
Date: 01/27/15 Time: 22:47
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Total system (balanced) observations 93
Kernel: Bartlett, Bandwidth: Fixed (4), No prewhitening
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
C(1)	11.95342	0.111139	107.5542	0.0000
C(2)	0.042907	0.007184	5.972154	0.0000
C(3)	0.065111	0.005886	11.06121	0.0000
C(4)	0.160893	0.065109	2.471145	0.0156
C(5)	1.889943	0.312125	6.055085	0.0000
C(6)	-0.151185	0.026651	-5.672673	0.0000
C(7)	0.138374	0.005155	26.84472	0.0000
C(8)	-1.619628	0.200913	-8.061341	0.0000
C(9)	0.026751	0.003458	7.736023	0.0000
C(10)	-4.141386	0.282805	-14.64399	0.0000
C(11)	-0.098959	0.013780	-7.181547	0.0000
C(12)	0.082155	0.178161	0.461127	0.6460
C(13)	-0.007364	0.000392	-18.78086	0.0000
C(14)	0.036366	0.003599	10.10576	0.0000
Determinant residual covariance		8.46E-13
J-statistic		0.241671
Equation: LPIB= C(1) + C(2)*LINVP+C(3)*LINVG_EAU+ C(4)*LN
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
VENTE_EAU(-1) C
Observations: 31
R-squared	0.942923	Mean dependent var		11.68439
Adjusted R-squared	0.936582	S.D. dependent var		0.095305
S.E. of regression	0.024001	Sum squared resid		0.015553
Durbin-Watson stat	0.468798
Equation: INVP=C(5)+ C(6)*LPIB(-1)+ C(7)*CRED+C(8)*INVG_EAU+C(9)
*DET+C(10)*TAXE
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
VENTE_EAU(-1) C
Observations: 31
R-squared	0.838581	Mean dependent var		0.098647
Adjusted R-squared	0.806297	S.D. dependent var		0.022096
S.E. of regression	0.009725	Sum squared resid		0.002364
Durbin-Watson stat	1.734317
Equation: INVG_EAU=C(11)+C(12)*TAXE+C(13)*DET+C(14)*VENTE_EAU(
-1)
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
VENTE_EAU(-1) C
Observations: 31
R-squared	0.554213	Mean dependent var		0.007714
Adjusted R-squared	0.504682	S.D. dependent var		0.008539
S.E. of regression	0.006010	Sum squared resid		0.000975
Durbin-Watson stat	0.837783
System: SYST3
Estimation Method: Generalized Method of Moments
Date: 01/29/15 Time: 19:46
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Total system (balanced) observations 93
Kernel: Bartlett, Bandwidth: Fixed (4), No prewhitening
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
C(1)	11.88070	0.032370	367.0244	0.0000
C(2)	-0.016299	0.003327	-4.899542	0.0000
C(3)	0.024937	0.000603	41.38790	0.0000
C(4)	-0.012690	0.025063	-0.506334	0.6140
C(5)	2.585659	0.191796	13.48128	0.0000
C(6)	-0.211374	0.016068	-13.15467	0.0000
C(7)	0.204610	0.003405	60.09367	0.0000
C(8)	-2.477182	0.166818	-14.84965	0.0000
C(9)	0.027955	0.002022	13.82228	0.0000
C(10)	-4.914213	0.306585	-16.02885	0.0000
C(11)	-0.020320	0.001031	-19.70896	0.0000
C(12)	0.285237	0.042793	6.665424	0.0000
C(13)	-0.008447	0.000346	-24.44386	0.0000
C(14)	0.417217	0.013152	31.72267	0.0000
Determinant residual covariance		3.72E-13
J-statistic		0.214709
Equation: LPIB= C(1) + C(2)*LINVP+C(3)*LINVG_ENERGIE+ C(4)*LN
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
CONSENERGIE(-1) C
Observations: 31
R-squared	0.964611	Mean dependent var		11.68439
Adjusted R-squared	0.960679	S.D. dependent var		0.095305
S.E. of regression	0.018899	Sum squared resid		0.009643
Durbin-Watson stat	0.714530
Equation: INVP=C(5)+ C(6)*LPIB(-1)+ C(7)*CRED+C(8)*INVG_ENERGIE
+C(9)*DET+C(10)*TAXE
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
CONSENERGIE(-1) C
Observations: 31
R-squared	0.714159	Mean dependent var		0.098647
Adjusted R-squared	0.656991	S.D. dependent var		0.022096
S.E. of regression	0.012941	Sum squared resid		0.004187
Durbin-Watson stat	1.152078
Equation: INVG_ENERGIE=C(11)+C(12)*TAXE+C(13)*DET+C(14)
*CONSENERGIE(-1)
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
CONSENERGIE(-1) C
Observations: 31
R-squared	0.626688	Mean dependent var		0.005749
Adjusted R-squared	0.585209	S.D. dependent var		0.011099
S.E. of regression	0.007148	Sum squared resid		0.001380
Durbin-Watson stat	0.735471
System: SYST31
Estimation Method: Generalized Method of Moments
Date: 03/07/16 Time: 13:48
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Total system (unbalanced) observations 92
Kernel: Bartlett, Bandwidth: Fixed (4), No prewhitening
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
C(1)	11.96806	0.076172	157.1191	0.0000
C(2)	0.056300	0.023105	2.436732	0.0171
C(3)	0.021425	0.001090	19.65404	0.0000
C(4)	0.033996	0.037252	0.912606	0.3643
C(5)	2.461003	0.282366	8.715655	0.0000
C(6)	-0.200745	0.023731	-8.459047	0.0000
C(7)	0.203724	0.004610	44.19210	0.0000
C(8)	-2.554160	0.177535	-14.38681	0.0000
C(9)	0.027227	0.002511	10.84393	0.0000
C(10)	-4.803093	0.407870	-11.77604	0.0000
C(11)	-0.020996	0.001375	-15.27168	0.0000
C(12)	0.318050	0.038263	8.312165	0.0000
C(13)	-0.008144	0.000985	-8.269467	0.0000
C(14)	0.416044	0.027967	14.87646	0.0000
Determinant residual covariance		3.86E-13
J-statistic		0.218840
Equation: LPIB= C(1) + C(2)*LINVP(-2)+C(3)*LINVG_ENERGIE+ C(4)*LN
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
CONSENERGIE(-1) C
Observations: 30
R-squared	0.968217	Mean dependent var		11.69022
Adjusted R-squared	0.964550	S.D. dependent var		0.091126
S.E. of regression	0.017157	Sum squared resid		0.007654
Durbin-Watson stat	0.622164
Equation: INVP=C(5)+ C(6)*LPIB(-1)+ C(7)*CRED+C(8)*INVG_ENERGIE
+C(9)*DET+C(10)*TAXE
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
CONSENERGIE(-1) C
Observations: 31
R-squared	0.694873	Mean dependent var		0.098647
Adjusted R-squared	0.633848	S.D. dependent var		0.022096
S.E. of regression	0.013371	Sum squared resid		0.004469
Durbin-Watson stat	1.113533
Equation: INVG_ENERGIE=C(11)+C(12)*TAXE+C(13)*DET+C(14)
*CONSENERGIE(-1)
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
CONSENERGIE(-1) C
Observations: 31
R-squared	0.626191	Mean dependent var		0.005749
Adjusted R-squared	0.584657	S.D. dependent var		0.011099
S.E. of regression	0.007153	Sum squared resid		0.001381
Durbin-Watson stat	0.732457

ANNEXE 6 : Test de normalité

Système1

System Residual Normality Tests
Orthogonalization: Cholesky (Lutkepohl)
Null Hypothesis: residuals are multivariate normal
Date: 03/15/15 Time: 16:06
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Component	Skewness	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
1	0.221869	0.254335	1	0.6140
2	-0.838857	3.635686	1	0.0566
3	0.638083	2.103605	1	0.1470
Joint		5.993626	3	0.1119
Component	Kurtosis	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
1	2.567931	0.241133	1	0.6234
2	3.717638	0.665214	1	0.4147
3	2.839331	0.033344	1	0.8551
Joint		0.939691	3	0.8158
Component	Jarque-Bera	df	Prob.
1	0.495468	2	0.7806
2	4.300900	2	0.1164
3	2.136949	2	0.3435
Joint	6.933317	6	0.3271

Système2

System Residual Normality Tests
Orthogonalization: Cholesky (Lutkepohl)
Null Hypothesis: residuals are multivariate normal
Date: 03/15/15 Time: 16:09
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Component	Skewness	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
1	0.628812	2.042925	1	0.1529
2	-1.156694	6.912696	1	0.0086
3	1.194837	7.376117	1	0.0066
Joint		16.33174	3	0.0010
Component	Kurtosis	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
1	3.117686	0.017890	1	0.8936
2	5.843421	10.44318	1	0.0012
3	5.014845	5.243650	1	0.0220
Joint		15.70472	3	0.0013
Component	Jarque-Bera	df	Prob.
1	2.060814	2	0.3569
2	17.35588	2	0.0002
3	12.61977	2	0.0018
Joint	32.03646	6	0.0000

Système3

System Residual Normality Tests
Orthogonalization: Cholesky (Lutkepohl)
Null Hypothesis: residuals are multivariate normal
Date: 03/15/15 Time: 16:10
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Component	Skewness	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
1	-0.026836	0.003721	1	0.9514
2	-0.127228	0.083632	1	0.7724
3	-0.501149	1.297609	1	0.2547
Joint		1.384962	3	0.7091
Component	Kurtosis	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
1	4.133088	1.658356	1	0.1978
2	3.121899	0.019193	1	0.8898
3	3.152818	0.030165	1	0.8621
Joint		1.707714	3	0.6352
Component	Jarque-Bera	df	Prob.
1	1.662077	2	0.4356
2	0.102826	2	0.9499
3	1.327774	2	0.5148
Joint	3.092676	6	0.7971

Système31

System Residual Normality Tests			System 31
Orthogonalization: Cholesky (Lutkepohl)
Null Hypothesis: residuals are multivariate normal
Date: 03/07/16 Time: 14:34
Sample: 1983 2013
Included observations: 31
Component	Skewness	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
1	0.770997	3.071255	1	0.0797
2	-0.189188	0.184925	1	0.6672
3	0.538253	1.496869	1	0.2212
Joint		4.753049	3	0.1908
Component	Kurtosis	Chi-sq	df	Prob.
1	3.404160	0.210988	1	0.6460
2	5.073502	5.553405	1	0.0184
3	3.725190	0.679288	1	0.4098
Joint		6.443681	3	0.0919
Component	Jarque-Bera	df	Prob.
1	3.282242	2	0.1938
2	5.738331	2	0.0567
3	2.176157	2	0.3369
Joint	11.19673	6	0.0825