ANNEXE 3: TEST DE COINTEGRATION
Date: 01/13/20 Time: 09:34
Sample (adjusted): 1980 2018
Included observations: 39 after adjustments Trend assumption:
Linear deterministic trend Series: IDE PIBH TOU TI TCH
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Réalisé et présenté par Honoré
K. AHOUDJI et Arnaud O. OKE Page 49
Déterminants des Investissements Directs Etrangers au
Benin
|
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
|
Eigenvalue
|
Trace
Statistic
|
0.05
Critical Value
|
Prob.**
|
|
None *
|
0.977962
|
193.5134
|
69.81889
|
0.0000
|
|
At most 1 *
|
0.928311
|
98.13845
|
47.85613
|
0.0000
|
|
At most 2 *
|
0.679246
|
32.25317
|
29.79707
|
0.0256
|
|
At most 3
|
0.133064
|
3.826155
|
15.49471
|
0.9171
|
|
At most 4
|
0.010204
|
0.256403
|
3.841466
|
0.6126
|
Trace test indicates 3 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level *
denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis
(1999) p-values
ANNEXE 4: DYNAMIQUE DE LONG TERME
Dependent Variable: IDE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/13/20 Time: 09:36
Sample (adjusted): 1980 2018
Included observations: 39 after adjustments
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
-14333.79
|
17551.82 -0.816656
|
0.4222
|
|
PIBH
|
171.8016
|
80.78610 2.147309
|
0.0041
|
|
TOU
|
682.1395
|
335.4465 2.033526
|
0.0005
|
|
TI
|
0.196194
|
19.22013 0.010208
|
0.9919
|
|
TCH
|
340.4322
|
120.4788 2.825661
|
0.0071
|
|
R-squared
|
0.747510
|
Mean dependent var
|
5094.331
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.735429
|
S.D. dependent var
|
13505.76
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
13469.05
|
Akaike info criterion
|
22.00976
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
4.35E+09
|
Schwarz criterion
|
22.24550
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-314.1416
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
22.08359
|
|
F-statistic
|
1.038207
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.233132
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000003
|
|
|
ANNEXE 5: DYNAMIQUE DE COURT TERME
Dependent Variable: D(IDE)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/13/20 Time: 09:45
Sample (adjusted): 1980 2018
Included observations: 39 after adjustments
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
2845.958
|
3679.054
|
0.773557
|
0.4478
|
|
D(PIBH)
|
1674.250
|
634.8582
|
2.637203
|
0.0009
|
|
D(TOU)
|
1551.381
|
14280.77
|
0.108634
|
0.9145
|
|
D(TI)
|
52.97561
|
36.22741
|
1.462307
|
0.1585
|
|
D(TCH)
|
755.1645
|
465.2671
|
1.623077
|
0.1195
|
|
RESIDUS (-1)
|
-0.980575
|
0.205572
|
-4.769974
|
0.0001
|
|
R-squared
|
0.773744
|
Mean dependent var
|
|
219.5470
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.672254
|
S.D. dependent var
|
|
19473.17
|
Déterminants des Investissements Directs Etrangers au
Benin
|
S.E. of regression
|
14146.50
|
Akaike info criterion
|
22.14545
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
4.20E+09
|
Schwarz criterion
|
22.43342
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-292.9636
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
22.23108
|
|
F-statistic
|
5.653230
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.167024
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000001
|
|
|
ANNEXE 6 : TEST D'HETEROSCEDASTICITE DES
ERREURS
Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey
|
F-statistic
|
0.953079
|
Prob. F(5,21)
|
0.4682
|
|
Obs*R-squared
|
4.993738
|
Prob. Chi-Square(5)
|
0.4166
|
|
Scaled explained SS
|
24.97062
|
Prob. Chi-Square(5)
|
0.0001
|
ANNEXE 7 : TEST D'AUTOCORRELATION DES ERREURS
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.933935 Prob. F(2,19) 0.4103
Obs*R-squared 2.416753 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.2987
| 
