ANNEXE
|
Variables
|
Niveau
|
Différence première
|
Décision
|
|
ADF
|
PP
|
ADF
|
PP
|
Ordre d'intégration
|
|
Ln(Inflation)
|
3.126940 (0.9992)
|
2.817952 (0.9983)
|
-4.023243* (0.0002)
|
-4.026130* (0.0002)
|
I(1)
|
|
Ln(M2)
|
-2.341950 (0.4015)
|
-2.065948 (0.5455)
|
-6.409034* (0.0000)
|
-6.447348* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
Ln(P_Pétrole)
|
-0.103299 (0.6409)
|
-0.096275 (0.6433)
|
-5.619016* (0.0000)
|
-5.637507* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
SBG_HD
|
-0.769894 (0.3752)
|
-0.595629 (0.4519)
|
-5.441368* (0.0000)
|
-5.569655 * (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
Transferts et Subventions
|
-0.508019 (0.4879)
|
-0.508019 (0.4879)
|
-5.303716* (0.0000)
|
-5.303077* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
Droits et Taxes
|
-2.679744 (0.2506)
|
-2.679744 (0.2506)
|
-5.771481* (0.0002)
|
-5.781655* (0.0002)
|
I(1)
|
Tableau 2: Test de
stationnarité (BENIN)
Source: sortie de Eviews (*) = significatif au
seuil de 1%, (**) = significatif au seuil de 5% Tableau
2 (suite) : Test de stationnarité (BURKINA FASO)
|
Variables
|
Niveau
|
Différence première
|
Décision
|
|
ADF
|
PP
|
ADF
|
PP
|
Ordre d'intégration
|
|
Ln(Inflation)
|
3.126940 (0.9992)
|
2.817952 (0.9983)
|
-4.026130* (0.0002)
|
-4.023243* (0.0002)
|
I(1)
|
|
Ln(M2)
|
-2.458955 (0.3450)
|
-2.503425 (0.3246)
|
-6.339080* (0.0000)
|
-7.200314* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
Ln(P_Pétrole)
|
-0.046266 (0.6603)
|
-0.055518 (0.6572)
|
-5.619016* (0.0000)
|
-5.637507* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
SBG_HD
|
-1.771337 (0.0728)
|
-1.765059 (0.0738)
|
-6.171274* (0.0000)
|
-6.317601* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
Transferts et Subventions
|
-3.196098 (0.1021)
|
-2.962325 (0.1571)
|
-6.292512* (0.0000)
|
-6.612084* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
Droits et Taxes
|
-1.550862 (0.1121)
|
-2.506685 (0.1228)
|
-6.112052* (0.0000)
|
-6.119010* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
Source: sortie de Eviews (*) = significatif au
seuil de 1%, (**) = significatif au seuil de 5%
Tableau 2 (suite) : Test de
stationnarité (Côte d'Ivoire)
|
Variables
|
Niveau
|
Différence première
|
Décision
|
|
ADF
|
PP
|
ADF
|
PP
|
Ordre d'intégration
|
|
Ln(Inflation)
|
5.026878 (1.0000)
|
4.343481 (1.0000)
|
-2.857237* (0.0057)
|
-2.740180* (0.0077)
|
I(1)
|
|
Ln(M2)
|
3.845529 (0.9999)
|
3.845404 (0.9999)
|
-5.405536* (0.0001)
|
-5.406309* (0.0001)
|
I(1)
|
|
Ln(P_Pétrole)
|
-2.061336 (0.5480)
|
-2.036116 (0.5614)
|
-5.187667* (0.0010)
|
-5.192925 (0.0010)
|
I(1)
|
|
SBG_HD
|
-1.808000 (0.0676)
|
-1.823891 (0.0654)
|
-3.577097* (0.0008)
|
-3.243947* (0.0020)
|
I(1)
|
|
Transferts et
Subventions
|
-2.911368 (0.1717)
|
-2.916887 (0.1700)
|
-5.656941* (0.0000)
|
-5.654908* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
Droits et
Taxes
|
0.166979 (0.7283)
|
0.450754 (0.8064)
|
-6.723171* (0.0000)
|
-7.011993* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
Source: sortie de Eviews (*) = significatif au
seuil de 1%, (**) = significatif au seuil de 5%
|
Variables
|
Niveau
|
Différence première
|
Décision
|
|
ADF
|
PP
|
ADF
|
PP
|
Ordre d'intégration
|
|
Ln(Inflation)
|
-3.351110 (0.0758)
|
-2.688663 (0.2472)
|
-4.083755* (0.0002)
|
-3.987921* (0.0002)
|
I(1)
|
|
Ln(M2)
|
-2.024560 (0.5675)
|
-2.177403 (0.4863)
|
-5.345860* (0.0001)
|
-5.345860* (0.0001)
|
I(1)
|
|
Ln(P_Pétrole)
|
-0.103299 (0.6409)
|
-0.096275 (0.6433)
|
-5.619016* (0.0000)
|
-5.637507* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
SBG_HD
|
-4.700013* (0.0033)
|
-5.015396* (0.0015)
|
|
|
I(0)
|
|
Transferts et
Subventions
|
-2.819212 (0.2014)
|
-2.207281 (0.4706)
|
-2.875365* (0.0054)
|
-6.848426* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
Droits et
Taxes
|
-3.558293* (0.0490)
|
-3.522656 (0.0528)
|
-8.072965* (0.0000)
|
-9.689110* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
Tableau 2 (suite) : Test de
stationnarité (MALI)
Source: sortie de Eviews (*) = significatif au
seuil de 1%, (**) = significatif au seuil de 5%
Tableau 2 (suite) : Test de
stationnarité : NIGER
|
Variables
|
Niveau
|
Différence première
|
Décision
|
|
ADF
|
PP
|
ADF
|
PP
|
Ordre d'intégration
|
|
Ln(Inflation)
|
2.030200 (0.9882)
|
1.728943 (0.9774)
|
-4.676050*
(0.0000)
|
-4.742107*
(0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
Ln(M2)
|
1.035567 (0.9177)
|
1.894184 (0.9841)
|
-5.041522* (0.0000)
|
-8.057901* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
Ln(P_Pétrole)
|
-0.103299 (0.6409)
|
-0.096275 (0.6433)
|
-5.619016* (0.0000)
|
-5.637507* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
SBG_HD
|
-3.029289* (0.0422)
|
-3.041202* (0.0411)
|
|
|
I(0)
|
|
Transferts et
Subventions
|
-2.380162 (0.1546)
|
-2.381602 (0.1542)
|
-5.449642* (0.0000)
|
-5.449642* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
Droits et
Taxes
|
0.233365 (0.7479)
|
0.333829 (0.7761)
|
-6.032589* (0.0000)
|
-6.050058* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
Source: sortie de Eviews (*) = significatif au
seuil de 1%, (**) = significatif au seuil de 5%
Tableau 2 (suite) : Test Stationnarité
(Sénégal)
|
Variables
|
Niveau
|
Différence première
|
Décision
|
|
ADF
|
PP
|
ADF
|
PP
|
Ordre d'intégration
|
|
Ln(Inflation)
|
-3.082803 (0.1264)
|
-3.082803 (0.1264)
|
-3.838745* (0.0004)
|
-3.773298* (0.0004)
|
I(1)
|
|
Ln(M2)
|
6.346774 (1.0000)
|
7.328248 (1.0000)
|
-6.753836* (0.0000)
|
-6.654826* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
Ln(P_Pétrole)
|
-0.103299 (0.6409)
|
-0.096275 (0.6433)
|
-5.619016* (0.0000)
|
-5.637507* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
SBG_HD
|
-3.368341 (0.0727)
|
-3.338714 (0.0772)
|
-8.339700* (0.0000)
|
-8.980951* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
Transferts et
Subventions
|
-1.797897
(0.0690)
|
-1.870185
(0.0594)
|
-5.253104* (0.0000)
|
-5.233068* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
Droits et
Taxes
|
-0.229898 (0.5960)
|
-0.229898 (0.5960)
|
-5.972374* (0.0000)
|
-5.972659* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
Source: sortie de Eviews (*) = significatif au
seuil de 1%, (**) = significatif au seuil de 5%
Tableau 2 (suite): Test de stationnarité
(TOGO)
|
Variables
|
Niveau
|
Différence première
|
Décision
|
|
ADF
|
PP
|
ADF
|
PP
|
Ordre d'intégration
|
|
Ln_INF
|
2.226335 (0.9925)
|
2.052394 (0.9888)
|
-4.364698* (0.0001)
|
-4.352628* (0.0001)
|
I(1)
|
|
Ln_MM
|
4.047043 (0.9999)
|
4.242125 (1.0000)
|
-5.644784* (0.0003)
|
-4.685085* (0.0007)
|
I(1)
|
|
Ln_PP
|
-0.103299 (0.6409)
|
-0.096275 (0.6433)
|
-5.619016* (0.0000)
|
-5.637507* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
SBG_HD
|
-2.811774 (0.0672)
|
-2.787191 (0.0707)
|
-7.256459* (0.0000)
|
-10.42678* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
|
TR_SUB
|
-3.687544 (0.0370)
|
-3.604148* (0.0444)
|
|
|
I(0)
|
|
DR_TAX
|
-0.955206 (0.9372)
|
-1.115059 (0.9115)
|
-4.654303* (0.0000)
|
-4.696749* (0.0000)
|
I(1)
|
Source: sortie de Eviews (*) = significatif au
seuil de 1%, (**) = significatif au seuil de 5%
Tableau 3:
Détermination du nombre de retards optimal
|
PAYS
|
CRITERE DE AKAIKE (AIC)
|
CRITERE DE SCHARZ (BIC)
|
NOMBRE DE RETARS OTIMAL RETENU
|
|
BENIN
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|
BURKINA FASO
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
CÔTE D'IVOIRE
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
MALI
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
NIGER
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
SENEGAL
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
TOGO
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
Source: Auteur
Tableau 4:Test de
cointégration
|
NOMBRE DE RELATION DE COINTGRATION
|
|
Trace test
|
Test de Engle et Granger
|
|
BENIN
|
2
|
confirmation
|
|
BURKINA FASO
|
1
|
confirmation
|
|
CÔTE D'IVOIRE
|
2
|
confirmation
|
|
MALI
|
1
|
Pas de test
|
|
NIGER
|
2
|
Pas de test
|
|
SENEGAL
|
2
|
confirmation
|
|
TOGO
|
2
|
Pas de test
|
Source: Auteur
Tableau 5: Test de bruit
blanc
BENIN
BURKINA FASO
|
VEC Residual Serial Correlation LM Tests
|
|
Null Hypothesis: no serial correlation at lag order h
|
|
Date: 08/23/16 Time: 10:31
|
|
Sample: 1981 2015
|
|
|
Included observations: 23
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lags
|
LM-Stat
|
Prob
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
41.52456
|
0.2425
|
|
2
|
40.15433
|
0.2912
|
|
3
|
26.95815
|
0.8622
|
|
4
|
49.75634
|
0.0633
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Probs from chi-square with 36 df.
|
|
VEC Residual Serial Correlation LM Tests
|
|
Null Hypothesis: no serial correlation at lag order h
|
|
Date: 08/23/16 Time: 10:41
|
|
Sample: 1981 2015
|
|
|
Included observations: 32
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lags
|
LM-Stat
|
Prob
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
27.26262
|
0.8524
|
|
2
|
29.48463
|
0.7703
|
|
3
|
14.75828
|
0.9993
|
|
4
|
49.61341
|
0.0650
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Probs from chi-square with 36 df.
|
Source: sortie de Eviews
CÔTE D'IVOIRE
MALI
|
VEC Residual Serial Correlation LM Tests
|
|
Null Hypothesis: no serial correlation at lag order h
|
|
Date: 08/23/16 Time: 10:50
|
|
Sample: 1981 2015
|
|
|
Included observations: 32
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lags
|
LM-Stat
|
Prob
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
25.34349
|
0.9076
|
|
2
|
40.42454
|
0.2812
|
|
3
|
33.44856
|
0.5906
|
|
4
|
49.29684
|
0.0689
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Probs from chi-square with 36 df.
|
|
VEC Residual Serial Correlation LM Tests
|
|
Null Hypothesis: no serial correlation at lag order h
|
|
Date: 08/23/16 Time: 10:53
|
|
Sample: 1981 2015
|
|
|
Included observations: 32
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lags
|
LM-Stat
|
Prob
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
21.84927
|
0.9696
|
|
2
|
47.49462
|
0.0952
|
|
3
|
30.33111
|
0.7347
|
|
4
|
34.86753
|
0.5223
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Probs from chi-square with 36 df.
|
Source: sortie de Eviews
SENEGAL NIGER
|
VEC Residual Serial Correlation LM Tests
|
|
Null Hypothesis: no serial correlation at lag order h
|
|
Date: 08/23/16 Time: 11:05
|
|
Sample: 1981 2015
|
|
|
Included observations: 32
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lags
|
LM-Stat
|
Prob
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
46.37613
|
0.1153
|
|
2
|
63.54783
|
0.0031
|
|
3
|
51.78883
|
0.0429
|
|
4
|
41.73802
|
0.2355
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Probs from chi-square with 36 df.
|
|
VEC Residual Serial Correlation LM Tests
|
|
Null Hypothesis: no serial correlation at lag order h
|
|
Date: 08/23/16 Time: 11:16
|
|
Sample: 1981 2015
|
|
|
Included observations: 31
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lags
|
LM-Stat
|
Prob
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
46.15273
|
0.1197
|
|
2
|
42.69493
|
0.2054
|
|
3
|
44.50116
|
0.1563
|
|
4
|
44.23492
|
0.1630
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Probs from chi-square with 36 df.
|
Source: sortie de Eviews
TOGO
|
VEC Residual Serial Correlation LM Tests
|
|
Null Hypothesis: no serial correlation at lag order h
|
|
Date: 08/23/16 Time: 14:51
|
|
Sample: 1981 2015
|
|
|
Included observations: 31
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lags
|
LM-Stat
|
Prob
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
22.16860
|
0.6260
|
|
2
|
23.05740
|
0.5742
|
|
3
|
32.37517
|
0.1474
|
|
4
|
25.54028
|
0.4324
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Probs from chi-square with 25 df.
|
Source: sortie de Eviews
| 
