Abstract
Once completely covered with cork oak, half of Maâmora
forest has been reforested with other species, mainly Acacia, Eucalyptus and
Pine. This is the result of many management strategies that have been called
upon since 1951.
Assuming that the consideration of the vulnerability of forest
ecosystems to climate change would bring more in the future management
strategies, this work started with an analysis of the dynamics (classification
of satellite images and changes study between 1987 and 2000 as well as between
2000 and 2014) of forest ecosystems with regards to Maâmora forest, after
which we identified a number of factors including the changing biophysical,
climatic, anthropogenic and silvicultural factors. These 4 groups of factors
helped assess, by weighting and integration (using weights determined by AHP),
the synthetic vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change initially in
2010 then in 2045 and 2070 after the projection of changing factors and
considering the RCP scenarios 4.5 (1) said optimist and 8.5 (2) said
pessimist.
This study shows that Maâmora forest has experienced
great dynamics. The surface areas of the main forest species in 1987 were as
follows: 64 461 ha, 44 719 ha, 5 770 ha and 3 850 ha for cork oak, eucalyptus,
pine and acacia respectively. The changes between 1987 and 2000 and then from
2000 to 2014 vary from a species to species. These include a decrease of 11.6%
followed by a 4.6% increase in cork oak surface area; an increase of 73%
between 1987 and 2014 in the area reforested with pine trees, an increase of
7.5% of the area covered with Eucalyptus followed by an 11% decrease to the
year 2014 and an increase of 34% in the surface area of Acacia followed by a
decrease of 41% to the year 2014.
Regarding the vulnerability of forest ecosystems, it's evident
that the most continental forest ecosystems are the most vulnerable to climate
changes, thus justifying why cork oak almost disappeared in the cantons D and
E. The vulnerability also becomes more significant when we project further into
the future. It should be noted that the synthetic vulnerability of no group of
the forest is null. The groups with low vulnerability accounted for 53% of the
forest surface area in 2010 compared with only 11% in 2045 with the first
scenario. Every group would become moderately or highly vulnerable to climate
change with the second scenario in 2045 as well as in 2070 regardless of the
scenario.
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