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Développement financier et croissance économique dans les pays de la zone franc

( Télécharger le fichier original )
par Edem Kwami ABBUY
Université de Lomé - Togo - Master en économie internationale 2012
  

précédent sommaire

Extinction Rebellion

ANNEXES ANNEXE 1

Table des matières

SIGLES ET ABREVIATIONS v

RESUME vi

INTRODUCTION GENERALE 1

PREMIERE PARTIE : DYNAMIQUE DE L'INTERACTION ENTRE DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE 6

CHAPITRE I : INTERACTION ENTRE DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE 7

SECTION 1 : CADRE CONCEPTUEL ET FONDEMENT DU LIEN ENTRE DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE 7

SECTION 2 : THEORIE DE LA LIBERALISATION FINANCIERE DANS LA RELATION ENTRE DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET

CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE 24

CHAPITRE II : LES DETERMINANTS DU DEVELOPPEMNT FINANCIER ET LA PRESENTATION DU SECTEUR FINANCIER DE

LA ZONE FRANC 25

SECTION 1 : LES DETERMINANTS DU DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER 32

SECTION 2 : PRESENTATION DU SECTEUR FINANCIER DE LA ZONE FRANC 38

DEUXIEME PARTIE : INTERACTION EMPIRIQUE ENTRE DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE

ECONOMIQUE 52

CHAPITRE III : PERFORMANCES ECONOMIQUES DES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC 53

SECTION 1 : LES PERFORMANCES ECONOMIQUES DE L'UEMOA 53

SECTION 2 : LES PERFORMANCES ECONOMIQUES DE LA CEMAC 55

CHAPITRE IV : EVALUATION EMPIRIQUE DE L'IMPACT DU DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER SUR LA CROISSANCE

EONOMIQUE 58

SECTION 1 : METHODOLOGIE D'ESTIMATION ET PRESENTATION DES VARIABLES 58

SECTION 2 : TESTS ECONOMETRIQUES ET RESULTATS 67

CONCLUSION 74

BIBLIOGRAPHIE 76

ANNEXE 78

80

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

ANNEXE 2 : Test de racines unitaires

VARIABLES

ZONE FRANC

UEMOA

CEMAC

LPIB

-0,4721

(0,3184)

-1,5601

(0,0594)**

-0,325

(0,3726)

 
 
 
 

L M2

-3,8592

(0,0001)*

-3,6736

(0,0001)*

-5,8198

(0,000)*

 
 
 
 

LCRD

-2,2951

(0,0109)*

-3,1711

(0,0008)*

-1,5743

(0,057)**

 
 
 
 

LINV

-1,31

(0,0951)***

-0,8219

(0,2056)

-2,4046

(0,0081)*

 
 
 
 

LOUV

-1,0402

(0,1491)

-0,8205

(0,206)

-0,4282

(0,3343)

 
 
 
 

LGOV

-4,8152

(0,000)*

-3,6593

(0,0001)*

-2,5747

(0,005)*

 
 
 
 

( )*, ( ) **, ( ) *** sont les significativités à 1%, 5%, 10%

Les valeurs reportées de ce tableau sont celles de la statistique tg* (adjusted t*) et les valeurs entre parenthèses sont les p-values associées.

81

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for lpib

Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 11

Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods = 41

AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T -> 0

Panel means: Not included

Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means removed

ADF regressions: 1.64 lags average (chosen by AIC)

LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen by LLC)

Statistic p-value

Unadjusted t -0.4778 0.3164

Adjusted t* -0.4721 0.3184

. xtunitroot llc lm2, demean nocons lags(aic 10)

Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for lm2

Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 11

Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods = 41

AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T -> 0

Panel means: Not included

Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means removed

ADF regressions: 2.27 lags average (chosen by AIC)

LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen by LLC)

Statistic p-value

Unadjusted t -3.9406 0.0000

Adjusted t* -3.8592 0.0001

. xtunitroot llc lcrd, demean nocons lags(aic 10)

Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for lcrd

Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 11

Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods = 41

AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T -> 0

Panel means: Not included

Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means removed

ADF regressions: 2.73 lags average (chosen by AIC)

LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen by LLC)

Statistic p-value

Unadjusted t -2.3408 0.0096

Adjusted t* -2.2951 0.0109

82

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for linv

Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 11

Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods = 41

AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T -> 0

Panel means: Not included

Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means removed

ADF regressions: 1.45 lags average (chosen by AIC)

LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen by LLC)

Statistic p-value

Unadjusted t -1.3365 0.0907

Adjusted t* -1.3100 0.0951

. xtunitroot llc louv, demean nocons lags(aic 10)

Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for louv

Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 11

Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods = 41

AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T -> 0

Panel means: Not included

Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means removed

ADF regressions: 5.00 lags average (chosen by AIC)

LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen by LLC)

Statistic p-value

Unadjusted t -1.0658 0.1433

Adjusted t* -1.0402 0.1491

. xtunitroot llc lgov, demean nocons lags(aic 10)

Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for lgov

Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 11

Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods = 41

AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T -> 0

Panel means: Not included

Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means removed

ADF regressions: 0.09 lags average (chosen by AIC)

LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen by LLC)

Statistic p-value

Unadjusted t -4.9025 0.0000

Adjusted t* -4.8152 0.0000

83

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for linv

Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 11

Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods = 41

AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T -> 0

Panel means: Not included

Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means removed

ADF regressions: 1.45 lags average (chosen by AIC)

LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen by LLC)

Statistic p-value

Unadjusted t -1.3365 0.0907

Adjusted t* -1.3100 0.0951

. xtunitroot llc louv, demean nocons lags(aic 10)

Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for louv

Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 11

Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods = 41

AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T -> 0

Panel means: Not included

Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means removed

ADF regressions: 5.00 lags average (chosen by AIC)

LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen by LLC)

Statistic p-value

Unadjusted t -1.0658 0.1433

Adjusted t* -1.0402 0.1491

. xtunitroot llc lgov, demean nocons lags(aic 10)

Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for lgov

Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels = 11

Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods = 41

AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T -> 0

Panel means: Not included

Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means removed

ADF regressions: 0.09 lags average (chosen by AIC)

LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen by LLC)

Statistic p-value

Unadjusted t -4.9025 0.0000

Adjusted t* -4.8152 0.0000

84

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

ANNEXE 3 : résultat du test de Hausman

Fixed-effects (within) regression

Group variable: country

 
 
 
 
 

t

 

R-sq: within = 0.9211

between = 0.9958

.9066214

.0510725 .012985 .0648817 -.0986149 .0058007 .216987

.0162628

.035443 .0170063 .0180915 .0282122 .0030015 .0458935

55.75

1.44 0.76 3.59 -3.50 1.93 4.73

Number of obs =

Number of groups =

Obs per group: min =

avg =

0.000 .8746556

0.150 -.0185939

0.446 -.0204425

0.000 .0293212

0.001 -.1540685

0.054 -.000099

0.000 .1267794

 

corr(u_i, Xb) = 0.7091

overall = 0.9740

.34844947

max =

F(6,423) =

Prob > F =

 

. xtreg lpib L.lpib lm2 lcrd linv lgov louv,fe

440 11 40 40.0 40 823.51 0.0000 Coef.

Std. Err.

P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

lpib

L1.

lm2 lcrd linv lgov louv _cons .9385873 .1207389 .0464124 .1004422 -.0431613 .0117004 .3071946 sigma_u sigma_e rho

.04312707

.05897313

(fraction of variance due to u_i)

F test that all u_i=0: F(10, 423) = 4.10 Prob > F = 0.0000

lpib

. est store eq1

85

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

. xtreg lpib L.lpib lm2 lcrd linv lgov louv,re

Random-effects GLS regression

Group variable: country

 
 
 
 
 
 

z

Number of obs =

Number of groups =

 

R-sq: within = 0.9194

lpib

between = 0.9993 overall = 0.9772

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian

corr(u_i, X) = 0 (assumed)

Coef.

.9817565

-.0376679 .0277515 .0483098 -.046003 .0024803 .0770537

Std. Err.

.0079387

.0247989 .0150248 .0132164 .0230972 .0008104 .0349944

123.67

-1.52 1.85 3.66 -1.99 3.06 2.20

Obs per group: min =

avg = max =

Wald chi2(6) =

Prob > chi2 =

P>|z| [95% Conf.

0.000 .966197

0.129 -.0862728

0.065 -.0016965

0.000 .022406

0.046 -.0912727

0.002 .000892

0.028 .008466

 

lpib

L1.

0

 
 

lm2

lcrd

linv

lgov

louv

. hausman eq1

0

.05897313

(fraction of variance due to u_i)

Coefficients

_cons

(b)

eq1

(B)

(b-B)

Difference

 

sigma_u

sigma_e

.9066214

.9817565

-.0751351

 

rho

.0510725

-.0376679

.0887404

 
 

.012985

.0277515

-.0147665

 
 

.0648817

.0483098

.016572

 
 

-.0986149

-.046003

-.0526119

 
 

.0058007

.0024803

.0033204

 

440

11

40

40.0

40

18594.83

0.0000

Interval]

.9973161

.010937 .0571994 .0742135 -.0007332

.0040686

.1456414

sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))

S.E.

.0141935

.0253224

.007967

.0123543

.0162002

.00289

b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg .

B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg

L.lpib lm2 lcrd linv lgov louv

Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic

chi2(6) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)

= 45.42

Prob>chi2 = 0.0000

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

ANNEXE 4 : Résultats des estimations par la méthode des GMM ? Estimation sur la zone franc

Dynamic panel-data estimation, one-step system GMM

Group variable: country

Time variable : annee

 
 
 
 
 

t

P>|t|

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

.9485701

.0161782

58.63

0.000

.9125229

 
 

.0486601

.026532

1.83

0.097

Number of obs =

-.0104569

 
 

.0290729

.0213614

1.36

0.203

Number of groups =

-.0185234

 

Number of instruments = 289

.0615745

.0200752

3.07

0.012

Obs per group: min =

.0168441

 

F(6, 10) = 2304.60

-.0813891

.0339691

-2.40

0.038

avg =

-.157077

 

Prob > F = 0.000

.0027159

.001104

2.46

0.034

max =

.000256

 
 

.0773605

.0371605

2.08

0.064

-.0054381

 

lpib

Coef.

Robust

Std. Err.

lm2

lcrd

linv

lgov

louv

_cons

Instruments for first differences equation

517 11 41 47.00 49 [95% Conf. Interval] .9846174 .1077772 .0766692 .1063049 -.0057013 .0051759 .1601591 GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) lpib

L(1/.).L.lpib collapsed

L1.

L(2/.).(linv lgov louv lm2 lcrd) collapsed

Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.05 Pr > z = 0.002 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -2.39 Pr > z = 0.127

Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(282) = 515.59 Prob > chi2 = 0.130

86

Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(282) = 8.48 Prob > chi2 = 1.000

87

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

? Estimation sur la zone UEMOA

Dynamic panel-data estimation, one-step system GMM

Group variable: country

Time variable : annee

 
 
 
 
 
 

t

P>|t|

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

.9291335

.0202369

45.91

0.000

.8796155

 
 

.0226078

.0074977

3.02

0.024

.0042617

 
 

.0527457

.0176463

2.99

0.024

.0095668

 
 

.0553913

.0162018

3.42

0.014

.0157469

 
 

-.0434095

.0158731

-2.73

0.034

-.0822496

 
 

.0024324

.0008021

3.03

0.023

.0004696

 

Number of instruments = 289

.0843157

.0325549

2.59

0.041

.0046566

 

F(6, 6) = 1510.29

lpib

Coef.

Robust

Std. Err.

lpib

L1.

lm2

lcrd

lgov

louv

_cons

Instruments for first differences equation

Prob > F = 0.000

Number of obs = 326

Number of groups = 7

Obs per group: min = 41

avg = 46.57

max = 49

[95% Conf. Interval] .9786514 .040954 .0959247 .0950358 -.0045694 .0043951 .1639747 GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L(1/.).L.lpib collapsed

L(2/.).(linv lgov louv lm2 lcrd) collapsed

Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.37 Pr > z = 0.018

linv

Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.77 Pr > z = 0.117

Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(282) = 380.49 Prob > chi2 = 0.137 Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(282) = 0.00 Prob > chi2 = 1.000

88

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

? Estimation sur la zone CEMAC

Dynamic panel-data estimation, one-step system GMM

Group variable: country

Time variable : annee

 
 
 
 
 
 

t

P>|t|

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

.9875604

.006457

152.94

0.000

.9670112

 
 

-.156668

.1198078

-1.31

0.282

-.5379498

 
 

-.0101583

.0139245

-0.73

0.518

-.0544722

 
 

-.0110672

.0315614

-0.35

0.749

-.1115096

 
 

-.1985735

.0570818

-3.48

0.040

-.3802334

 
 

.120104

.033646

3.57

0.038

.0130274

 

Number of instruments = 191

F(6, 3) = 3.85

.5810444

.2132261

2.73

0.072

-.0975362

 

Prob > F = 0.148

lpib

Coef.

Robust

Std. Err.

lpib

L1.

lgov

louv

_cons

Instruments for first differences equation

Number of obs = 191

Number of groups = 4

Obs per group: min = 47

avg = 47.75

max = 48

[95% Conf. Interval] 1.00811 .2246138 .0341555 .0893752 -.0169136 .2271806 1.259625 GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L(1/.).(L.lpib linv lgov louv) collapsed

lm2

lcrd

linv

Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -1.95 Pr > z = 0.051 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.74 Pr > z = 0.121s

Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(184) = 236.71 Prob > chi2 = 0.105 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.)

Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(184) = 0.00 Prob > chi2 = 1.000

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