Chapitre troisième: 61
PRESENTATION ET INTERPRETATION DES RESULTATS
61
III.1. PRESENTATION DES RESULTATS 61
III.1.1. Régression linéaire simple
61
III.1.2 Tests économétriques 62
III.1.3. Résultat du modèle
définitif 63
III. 2. INTERPRETATION DES RESULTATS
66
III.2.1. Types d'éducation reçus par
l'individu (TYPE) 67
III.2.2. Education des parents (EDUP) 67
III.2.3 Education de l'individu (EDUCIN) 68
III.2.4. Expérience professionnelle 69
III.2.5. Revenu des parents 70
III.3. RECOMMANDATIONS 71
CONCLUSION GENERALE 73
BIBLIOGRAPHIE 75
TABLE DES MATIERES 77
n X
i i
X=
n
20700
= =
37
559,46
Annexe N° 1 : Calcul de la taille de
l'échantillon
|
Tranches de
revenu
|
xi
|
ni
|
xini
|
xi- X
|
(xi- X )2
|
n(xi- x )2
|
|
[0-200[
|
100
|
4
|
400
|
-450,46
|
211103,4916
|
844413,9664
|
|
[200-400[
|
300
|
8
|
2400
|
- 259,46
|
67319,4916
|
538555,9328
|
|
[400-600[
|
500
|
10
|
5000
|
-59,46
|
3535,4916
|
35354,916
|
|
[600-800[
|
700
|
9
|
6300
|
140 ,54
|
1975,4916
|
177763,4244
|
|
[800-1000[
|
900
|
3
|
2700
|
340,54
|
115967,4916
|
347902,4748
|
|
[1000-1200[
|
1100
|
1
|
1100
|
540,54
|
292183,4916
|
292183,4916
|
|
[1200-1400[
|
1300
|
1
|
1300
|
740,54
|
548399,4916
|
548399,4916
|
|
[1400-1600[
|
1500
|
1
|
1500
|
740,54
|
884615,4916
|
884615,4916
|
|
Total
|
37
|
|
20700
|
|
|
3669189,189
|
Annexe N° 2 : Calculs du revenu moyen de la
population de la ville de Goma
|
Tranches de
revenu
|
xi
|
ni
|
xini
|
xi- X
|
(xi- X )2
|
n(xi- x )2
|
|
[0-200[
|
100
|
41
|
4100
|
-327,16
|
107033,6656
|
4388380,29
|
|
[200-400[
|
300
|
58
|
17400
|
- 127,16
|
16169,6656
|
937840,6048
|
|
[400-600[
|
500
|
21
|
10500
|
72,84
|
5305,6656
|
111418,9776
|
|
[600-800[
|
700
|
25
|
17500
|
272,84
|
74441,6656
|
1861041,64
|
|
[800-1000[
|
900
|
9
|
8100
|
472,84
|
223577,6656
|
2012198,99
|
|
[1000-1200[
|
1100
|
1
|
1100
|
672,84
|
452713,6656
|
452713,6656
|
|
[1200-1400[
|
1300
|
0
|
0
|
872,84
|
|
0
|
|
[1400-1600[
|
1500
|
7
|
10500
|
1072,84
|
1150985,6656
|
8056899,659
|
|
Total
|
162
|
|
69200
|
|
|
17820493,83
|
Annexe N° 3 : Régression linéaire
simple
Dependent Variable: LOG(REVIND)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/22/08 Time: 10:02
Sample(adjusted): 1 161
Included observations: 161 after adjusting
endpoints
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
4.382775
|
0.443897 9.873395
|
0.0000
|
|
EXPI
|
0.047826
|
0.014376 3.326686
|
0.0011
|
|
EDUP
|
0.138973
|
0.136388 1.018953
|
0.3098
|
|
EDUCIN
|
0.077516
|
0.058290 1.329842
|
0.1855
|
|
TYPE
|
-0.101446
|
0.120688 -0.840562
|
0.4019
|
|
LOG(REVP)
|
0.141762
|
0.063003 2.250096
|
0.0259
|
|
R-squared
|
0.099247
|
Mean dependent var
|
5.741497
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.070190
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.750536
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.723717
|
Akaike info criterion
|
2.227721
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
81.18370
|
Schwarz criterion
|
2.342556
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-173.3316
|
F-statistic
|
3.415635
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.616934
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.005898
|
Annexe N°4 : Forme fonctionnelle du modèle
Ramsey RESET Test:
F-statistic 0.229010 Probability 0.632933
Log likelihood ratio 0.239176 Probability
0.624802
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: LOG(REVIND)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/22/08 Time: 18:30
Sample: 1 162
Included observations: 162
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic
Prob.
C -2.151895 13.66291 -0.157499 0.8751
TYPE 0.340866 0.934300 0.364836 0.7157
LOG(REVP) -0.459076 1.256811 -0.365270 0.7154
EXPI -0.158563 0.431488 -0.367480 0.7138
EDUP -0.455181 1.250087 -0.364120 0.7163
EDUCIN -0.254791 0.697524 -0.365280 0.7154
FITTED^2 0.373107 0.779661 0.478550 0.6329
R-squared 0.100657 Mean dependent var
5.742216
Adjusted R-squared 0.065843 S.D. dependent var
0.748257
S.E. of regression 0.723204 Akaike info criterion
2.231998
Sum squared resid 81.06874 Schwarz criterion
2.365413
Log likelihood -173.7918 F-statistic 2.891326
Durbin-Watson stat 1.614785 Prob(F-statistic)
0.010645
| 
