ANNEXES
Annexe 1 : Evolution des variables étudiées
A 1.1 Variation de l'endettement (en milliers de dirhams)
|
Secteur
|
Entreprise
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
|
Agroalimentaire
|
CENTRALE
|
-14 623
|
-12 059
|
57 761
|
132 890
|
|
LESIEUR
|
-11 275
|
46 937
|
-62 819
|
206 884
|
|
BRANOMA
|
-
|
-6
|
-9
|
3 426
|
|
OULMES
|
160 278
|
-
|
65 901
|
168 607
|
|
BRASSERIE
|
17 494
|
-21 148
|
-2 540
|
-2 911
|
|
LGMC
|
671
|
-671
|
-
|
-
|
|
Chimie et
parachimie
|
SCE
|
5 779
|
-1 492
|
-2 000
|
-1 434
|
|
SONASID
|
-
|
-
|
119 651
|
106 500
|
|
CIMENT
|
1 350
|
5 891
|
-1 850
|
11 572
|
|
PAPELERA
|
-24 421
|
52 337
|
-22 612
|
44 881
|
|
PROPHARM
|
-
|
-48 167
|
4 273
|
-46 708
|
|
ALUMINUM
|
-23 833
|
-4 348
|
80 238
|
57 276
|
A 1.2 Ecart entre l'endettement effectif et sa valeur cible (D*-
Dt-1) (en milliers de dirhams)
|
Secteur
|
Entreprise
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
|
Agroalimentaire
|
CENTRALE
|
57 221
|
71 844
|
83 903
|
26 142
|
|
LESIEUR
|
106 685
|
117 960
|
71 023
|
133 842
|
|
BRANOMA
|
1 927
|
1 927
|
1 933
|
1 942
|
|
OULMES
|
215 562
|
55 284
|
55 284
|
-10 617
|
|
BRASSERIE
|
-1 546
|
-19 040
|
2 108
|
4 648
|
|
LGMC
|
168
|
-503
|
168
|
168
|
|
Chimie et
parachimie
|
SCE
|
2 753,4
|
-3 025,6
|
-1 533,6
|
466,4
|
|
SONASID
|
96 211
|
96 211
|
96 211
|
-23 440
|
|
CIMENT
|
9 980
|
8 630
|
2 739
|
4 589
|
|
PAPELERA
|
20 822
|
45 243
|
-7 094
|
15 518
|
|
PROPHARM
|
-
|
-57 996
|
-9 829
|
-14 102
|
|
ALUMINUM
|
27 344
|
51 177
|
55 525
|
-24 713
|
A 1.3 Deficit de financement (en milliers de dirhams)
|
Secteur
|
Entreprise
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
|
Agroalimentaire
|
CENTRALE
|
-13 198
|
594 025
|
316 345
|
6 938
|
|
LESIEUR
|
13 393
|
77 653
|
-54 402
|
202 576
|
|
BRANOMA
|
1 733
|
-22
|
-1 958
|
5 107
|
|
OULMES
|
22 223
|
58 210
|
79 186
|
100 557
|
|
BRASSERIE
|
-193 233
|
206 842
|
-7 325
|
16 842
|
|
LGMC
|
7 884
|
2 978
|
- 13 091
|
606
|
|
Chimie et
parachimie
|
SCE
|
-71 455
|
15 492
|
-5 066
|
-14 749
|
|
SONASID
|
-3 528
|
-27 078
|
32 402
|
37 560
|
|
CIMENT
|
5 729
|
-10 295
|
6 577
|
29 671
|
|
PAPELERA
|
-25 314
|
47 346
|
93 176
|
25 133
|
|
PROPHARM
|
6 494
|
-81 604
|
31 533
|
3 750
|
|
ALUMINUM
|
-11 486
|
-16 390
|
92 718
|
19 644
|
Annexe 2 : Résultats de la régression a
partir du logiciel EVIEWS. A 2.1 Modèle sans effets
individuels
Dependent Variable: VAR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/23/09 Time: 18:20
Sample: 2003 2006
Cross-sections included: 12
Total panel (balanced) observations: 48
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
ECART
|
0.486058
|
0.150194 3.236201
|
0.0032
|
|
C
|
7914.767
|
8659.084 0.914042
|
0.3841
|
|
R-squared
|
0.185451
|
Mean dependent var
|
21784.81
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.167744
|
S.D. dependent var
|
57140.18
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
52127.89
|
Akaike info criterion
|
24.60156
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
1.25E+11
|
Schwarz criterion
|
24.67953
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-588.4375
|
F-statistic
|
10.47300
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.554307
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.002248
|
Dependent Variable: VAR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/23/09 Time: 18:24
Sample: 2003 2006
Cross-sections included: 12
Total panel (balanced) observations: 48
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
DEF
|
0.102395
|
0.073358 1.540224
|
0.1702
|
|
C
|
18350.04
|
8493.906 2.118542
|
0.0545
|
|
R-squared
|
0.049042
|
Mean dependent var
|
21784.81
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.019403
|
S.D. dependent var
|
57140.18
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
56323.83
|
Akaike info criterion
|
24.75640
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
1.46E+11
|
Schwarz criterion
|
24.83436
|
|
|
|
1.929986
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-592.1535
|
F-statistic
|
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.668227
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.171449
|
Dependent Variable: VAR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/23/09 Time: 18:26
Sample: 2003 2006
Cross-sections included: 12
Total panel (balanced) observations: 48
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
ECART
|
0.451469
|
0.156702 2.881068
|
0.0085
|
|
DEF
|
0.057325
|
0.070835 0.809267
|
0.4433
|
|
C
|
6978.870
|
8768.347 0.795916
|
0.4508
|
|
R-squared
|
0.197136
|
Mean dependent var
|
21784.81
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.161453
|
S.D. dependent var
|
57140.18
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
52324.52
|
Akaike info criterion
|
24.62878
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
1.23E+11
|
Schwarz criterion
|
24.74573
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-588.0907
|
F-statistic
|
5.524672
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.585384
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.007152
|
A 2.2 Modèle avec effets individuels fixes
Dependent Variable: VAR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/23/09 Time: 18:12
Sample: 2003 2006
Cross-sections included: 12
Total panel (balanced) observations: 48
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
ECART 0.143486 0.241560 0.593996 0.5563
C 17690.33 10428.61 1.696327 0.0987
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.329545 Mean dependent var 21784.81
Adjusted R-squared 0.099675 S.D. dependent var 57140.18
S.E. of regression 54217.71 Akaike info criterion 24.86522
Sum squared resid 1.03E+11 Schwarz criterion 25.37200
Log likelihood -583.7652 F-statistic 1.433615
Durbin-Watson stat 2.181366 Prob(F-statistic) 0.197407
Dependent Variable: VAR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/23/09 Time: 18:17
Sample: 2003 2006
Cross-sections included: 12
Total panel (balanced) observations: 48
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
DEF 0.052502 0.085849 0.611558 0.5448
C 20023.68 8336.496 2.401930 0.0218
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.329947 Mean dependent var 21784.81
Adjusted R-squared 0.100214 S.D. dependent var 57140.18
S.E. of regression 54201.49 Akaike info criterion 24.86462
Sum squared resid 1.03E+11 Schwarz criterion 25.37140
Log likelihood -583.7508 F-statistic 1.436220
Durbin-Watson stat 2.331977 Prob(F-statistic) 0.196299
Dependent Variable: VAR
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/23/09 Time: 18:18
Sample: 2003 2006
Cross-sections included: 12
Total panel (balanced) observations: 48
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
ECART 0.133852 0.244535 0.547376 0.5877
DEF 0.049189 0.086932 0.565828 0.5752
C 16315.23 10808.16 1.509529 0.1404
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.335800 Mean dependent var 21784.81
Adjusted R-squared 0.081841 S.D. dependent var 57140.18
S.E. of regression 54752.07 Akaike info criterion 24.89751
Sum squared resid 1.02E+11 Schwarz criterion 25.44328
Log likelihood -583.5403 F-statistic 1.322260
Durbin-Watson stat 2.183774 Prob(F-statistic) 0.248370
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