La dette publique au Togo : une tentative d'identification des facteurs explicatifs

ANNEXE 8

Tableau n°6 : Test de corrélation des erreurs de Breusch-Godfrey

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test :

F-statistic 0.316764 Probability 0.733970

Obs*R-squared 1.301113 Probability 0.521755

Source : Auteur utilisant Eviews5

Tableau n°7 : Test de spécification de Ramsey White Heteroskedasticity Test :

F-statistic 2.017654 Probability 0.260941

Obs*R-squared 25.77804 Probability 0.311456

Source : Auteur utilisant Eviews5

Tableau n°8 : Estimation du modèle à correction d'erreur

Dependent Variable: D(LDTPIB) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/12/09 Time: 08:28 Sample (adjusted): 1981 2008 Included observations: 28 after adjustments
Variable	Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
LDTPIB(-1)	-0.978852 0.197330 -4.960490	0.0002
D(LTCH)	0.558390 0.118836 4.698839	0.0003
LTCH(-1)	0.554834 0.150469 3.687379	0.0022
LMPIB(-1)	0.177077 0.073918 2.395604	0.0301
D(LMPIB)	0.297150 0.079564 3.734712	0.0020
D(LPOP)	-1.019847 0.439043 -2.322887	0.0347
LPOP(-1)	-1.549542 0.251331 -6.165357	0.0000
D(LPIBH)	-0.780145 0.166637 -4.681709	0.0003
LPIBH(-1)	-0.591862 0.134018 -4.416280	0.0005
D(LDSEX)	0.146342 0.031735 4.611330	0.0003
LDSEX(-1)	-0.037082 0.024915 -1.488334	0.1574
DUM94	0.686178 0.104388 6.573314	0.0000
C	9.373836 1.778812 5.269717	0.0001
R-squared	0.938316 Mean dependent var	-0.022853
Adjusted R-squared	0.888968 S.D. dependent var	0.143416
S.E. of regression	0.047788 Akaike info criterion	-2.939651
Sum squared resid	0.034256 Schwarz criterion	-2.321128
Log likelihood	54.15512 F-statistic	19.01445
Durbin-Watson stat	2.035061 Prob(F-statistic)	0.000001

Source : Auteur utilisant Eviews5

ANNEXE 9

Données de base

Année	Exportations	Importations	CFA/US	PIB nominal	Population	DUM93	DUM94	TXPIB	Dette ext. totale	Balance fiscale	Service dette extérieure	Recettes totales	Dette int. publique	Déficit budgétaire
1980	100.5000	108.2000	211.2800	238.4000	2.780000	0	0	12.03000	213.5000	13.20000	32.50000	nd	nd	nd
1981	102.6000	112.5000	271.7300	258.0000	2.880000	0	0	8.221477	258.0000	14.50000	41.60000	nd	nd	nd
1982	113.3000	134.1000	328.6100	269.7000	2.990000	0	0	4.534884	272.6000	16.30000	55.70000	nd	nd	nd
1983	104.2000	111.1000	381.0700	296.0000	3.110000	0	0	10.49314	336.3000	20.80000	64.70000	nd	nd	nd
1984	127.1000	115.0000	436.9600	313.8000	3.230000	0	0	5.302013	350.5000	30.10000	54.90000	nd	nd	nd
1985	165.7000	195.7000	449.2600	338.2000	3.350000	0	0	7.775653	321.8000	40.60000	41.40000	nd	nd	nd
1986	161.4000	204.6000	346.3100	365.3000	3.480000	0	0	8.013010	312.5000	36.30000	31.10000	nd	nd	nd
1987	155.4000	190.6000	300.5400	371.9000	3.600000	0	0	1.943608	301.9000	16.50000	31.30000	nd	nd	nd
1988	161.0000	209.9000	297.8500	412.1000	3.730000	0	0	10.28464	330.7000	24.20000	68.50000	nd	nd	nd
1989	172.1000	212.3000	319.0100	431.6000	3.850000	0	0	5.088873	294.5000	22.20000	120.5000	nd	nd	nd
1990	180.5000	230.5000	272.2700	487.0300	3.960000	0	0	2.525487	302.7000	18.10000	41.40000	100.4000	1.319200	-27.30000
1991	177.5000	220.3000	282.1100	498.6100	4.070000	0	0	2.350282	318.0000	0.100000	31.10000	78.90000	18.52270	-33.90000
1992	140.8000	200.5000	264.6900	490.5700	4.170000	0	0	-2.075513	326.8000	-2.900000	31.30000	71.00000	24.18190	-25.30000
1993	74.80000	121.1000	283.1600	400.0600	4.270000	1	0	-20.56370	349.4000	-35.10000	68.50000	38.20000	29.30000	-53.80000
1994	182.5000	272.5000	555.2100	607.9400	4.380000	1	1	54.86801	707.5000	-26.10000	120.5000	64.20000	44.97920	-60.20000
1995	188.4000	334.7000	499.1500	721.8300	4.510000	1	1	40.87243	710.1000	-8.700000	158.0000	97.10000	56.40000	-47.10000
1996	290.7000	393.5000	511.5500	808.5500	4.660000	1	1	9.497788	741.9000	-7.300000	99.20000	110.4000	71.14700	-47.30000
1997	298.2000	407.7000	583.6700	939.4800	4.830000	1	1	17.18156	788.5000	7.700000	88.70000	128.5000	88.29470	-29.50000
1998	292.7000	414.5000	589.9500	898.7100	5.010000	1	1	-5.059826	818.1000	-13.60000	48.70000	128.1000	241.6053	-60.70000
1999	283.2000	381.7000	615.7000	939.6500	5.190000	1	1	3.631315	862.8000	7.300000	45.40000	133.1000	252.6900	-40.50000
2000	308.8000	428.7000	711.9800	921.3900	5.360000	1	1	-2.504380	934.3000	-8.400000	54.20000	116.6000	298.3300	-49.90000
2001	316.4000	473.6000	733.0400	976.5600	5.530000	1	1	0.983087	946.9000	22.50000	55.20000	146.1000	282.5800	-6.300000
2002	358.4000	504.4000	696.9900	1026.200	5.680000	1	1	5.307233	890.2000	21.10000	51.40615	126.5000	264.4837	-8.000000
2003	402.5000	557.2000	581.2000	972.6400	5.840000	1	1	3.827038	826.9472	44.60000	55.33455	165.3000	275.4221	18.90000
2004	396.7000	577.2000	528.2900	1023.200	5.990000	1	1	2.594543	781.4800	46.30000	55.14000	171.7000	274.4858	15.60000
2005	441.6000	765.4000	527.4700	1113.100	6.150000	1	1	7.011012	820.4279	-16.30000	36.27652	170.7900	278.3744	-44.96000
2006	507.3000	637.3000	522.8900	1160.100	6.273000	1	1	7.100000	782.6557	3.100000	33.18925	nd	311.1294	nd
2007	521.4000	653.5000	478.9800	1212.800	6.500000	1	1	7.000000	847.2300	nd	33.06000	nd	318.5000	nd
2008	505.6000	673.6000	448.9300	1427.200	7.000000	0	1	8.000000	669.2600	nd	29.73000	nd	460.9000	nd

Sources :

La Direction de l'Economie (DE),

La Direction de la Dette Publique (DDP)

La Banque Centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (BCEAO) et

La Direction Générale de la Statistique et de la Comptabilité Nationale (DGSCN).