L'analyse des déterminants de l'endettement extérieur public des pays en développement

ANNEXE 3: Estimation de l'équation de long terme

Dependent Variable: LDTPIB
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/04/05 Time: 08:58
Sample: 1980 2004
Included observations: 25
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LSDPIB	0.302383	0.078689	3.842749	0.0009
LTXCHGE	0.320384	0.110046	2.911352	0.0083
BFPIB	-0.044283	0.016316	-2.714134	0.0130
C	1.603641	0.765390	2.095196	0.0485
R-squared	0.682448	Mean dependent var		4.572011
Adjusted R-squared	0.637084	S.D. dependent var		0.291316
S.E. of regression	0.175496	Akaike info criterion		-0.496755
Sum squared resid	0.646775	Schwarz criterion		-0.301735
Log likelihood	10.20944	F-statistic		15.04365
Durbin-Watson stat	1.442136	Prob(F-statistic)		0.000019

ANNEXE 4: Test Breusch Godfrey sur l'équation de long terme

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic	0.480681	Probability		0.625680
Obs*R-squared	1.204030	Probability		0.547707
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/04/05 Time: 10:00
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LSDPIB	0.014115	0.087576	0.161173	0.8737
LTXCHGE	-0.015345	0.115851	-0.132453	0.8960
BFPIB	0.003895	0.017276	0.225479	0.8240
C	0.127967	0.808676	0.158243	0.8759
RESID(-1)	0.196709	0.237100	0.829642	0.4170
RESID(-2)	-0.155934	0.250119	-0.623441	0.5404
R-squared	0.048161	Mean dependent var		5.51E-16
Adjusted R-squared	-0.202323	S.D. dependent var		0.164161
S.E. of regression	0.180004	Akaike info criterion		-0.386115
Sum squared resid	0.615626	Schwarz criterion		-0.093584
Log likelihood	10.82643	F-statistic		0.192273
Durbin-Watson stat	1.804584	Prob(F-statistic)		0.961799

ANNEXE 5: Test de white sur l'équation de long terme

White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic	0.962108	Probability		0.477622
Obs*R-squared	6.070680	Probability		0.415319
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/04/05 Time: 10:00
Sample: 1980 2004
Included observations: 25
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
C	5.636928	4.315363	1.306246	0.2079
LSDPIB	0.109216	0.084082	1.298932	0.2104
LSDPIB^2	-0.044726	0.032861	-1.361074	0.1903
LTXCHGE	-1.691492	1.455980	-1.161755	0.2605
LTXCHGE^2	0.136974	0.121758	1.124968	0.2754
BFPIB	0.069822	0.061343	1.138224	0.2700
BFPIB^2	0.002530	0.002164	1.169350	0.2575
R-squared	0.242827	Mean dependent var		0.025871
Adjusted R-squared	-0.009564	S.D. dependent var		0.047589
S.E. of regression	0.047816	Akaike info criterion		-3.011422
Sum squared resid	0.041154	Schwarz criterion		-2.670136
Log likelihood	44.64277	F-statistic		0.962108
Durbin-Watson stat	2.215067	Prob(F-statistic)		0.477622