Economic analysis of the effect of climate change on electricity demand in Togo: application of the ARDL model

Annexes

Tableau 1 : Statistiques descriptives des variables

	^Obs	^Mean		^Min
	^30	^4.682362	^.1788653	^4.248375
^Variable	^30	^27.82164	^Std. Dev. ^.6143059	^26.57914
	^30	^15.52447	^.2366031	^15.14373
^lconsel	^30	^1173.405	^121.3312	^946.98
^lpib	^30	^28.14062	^1.162655	^26.6279
^lpoptot ^precip	^30	^30.98859	^6.715893	^26.7819
^tempss	^30	^7.878548	^7.220002	^1.0582
	^30	^89.9	^10.72011	^83

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Tableau 2 : Estimation du modèle ARDL optimal

			^t
	^Sample: 1992 - ^2019			^Number of obs =
	^-.3697565	^.3021838	^-1.22	^F( 17, 10) = ^0.249 -1.043064
^Log likelihood = ^48.673284	^-.1726231 ^-.0793512	^.1737673 ^.0287426	^-0.99 ^-2.76	^Prob > ^F = ^R-squared = ^Adj R-squared = ^Root MSE = ^0.344 -.5598008 ^0.020 -.1433938
	^.0545479	^.0337275	^1.62	^0.137 -.0206016
^lconsel ^lconsel	^Coef. ^-.1311944 ^.0185985	^Std. Err. ^.0440706 ^.0045882	^-2.98 ^4.05	^P>|t| [95% Conf. ^0.014 -.2293898 ^0.002 .0083752
L1.	^.0164146	^.0066987	^2.45	^0.034 .0014889			L2.
^.0334341	^.0084989	^3.93	^0.003 .0144975
^tempss	^-.0001526	^.0002217	^-0.69	^0.507 -.0006465
--. L1. L2.	^-.6141055 ^29.87407	^.2925987 ^15.38891	^-2.10 ^1.94	^0.062 -1.266056 ^0.081 -4.414555
^tempsp --. L1. L2.	^-28.05072 ^-1.057576	^14.70548 ^.6191787	^-1.91 ^-1.71	^0.086 -60.81657 ^0.118 -2.437192
	^1.667693	^.6379061	^2.61	^0.026 .2463497
^precip ^lpib ^lpoptot	^-2.123449 ^-.0203474	^.7342652 ^.0053405	^-2.89 ^-3.81	^0.016 -3.759494 ^0.003 -.0322467
--.	^-.0075805	^.0051595	^-1.47	^0.173 -.0190765
^L1.	^4.681863	^3.934385	^1.19	^0.262 -4.084492

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Tableau 3 : Test de cointegration

^Sample: 1992		^48.673283			^Number of obs ^R-squared ^Adj R-squared ^Root MSE
^D.lconsel				^t		^P>|t|
^ADJ ^lconsel	- ^2019 ^-1.54238		^.3193274	^-4.83		^0.001	= = = ^-2.253885
^Log likelihood = ^L1. ^LR ^tempss ^tempsp ^precip ^lpib ^lpoptot ^prixel ^emissco	^Coef. ^-.101141 ^.0443777 ^-.0000989 ^-.3981546 ^1.18217 ^-.0104344 ^-.018107		^Std. Err. ^.0299882 ^.0092199 ^.000132 ^.1549709 ^.3859393 ^.0035916 ^.0047255	^-3.37 ^4.81 ^-0.75 ^-2.57 ^3.06 ^-2.91 ^-3.83		^0.007 ^0.001 ^0.471 ^0.028 ^0.012 ^0.016 ^0.003	= ^[95% Conf. ^-.167959 ^.0238344 ^-.0003931 ^-.7434514 ^.3222434 ^-.018437 ^-.0286361		^Interval] ^-.8308738
^SR ^lconsel ^LD. ^tempss ^D1. ^LD. ^tempsp ^D1. ^LD. ^lpoptot ^D1. ^prixel ^emissco ^_cons	^.1726231 ^.0766466 ^.1311945 ^-.0498487 ^-.0334341 ^28.05072 ^.0048468 ^.0225823 ^.0075805 ^-.6695165		^.1737673 ^.0559746 ^.0440706 ^.0142448 ^.0084989 ^14.70548 ^.0073721 ^.0078087 ^.0051595 ^3.780649	^0.99 ^1.37 ^2.98 ^-3.50 ^-3.93 ^1.91 ^0.66 ^2.89 ^1.47 ^-0.18		^0.344 ^0.201 ^0.014 ^0.006 ^0.003 ^0.086 ^0.526 ^0.016 ^0.173 ^0.863	^-.2145546 ^-.0480726 ^.0329991 ^-.0815882 ^-.0523708 ^-4.715132 ^-.0115792 ^.0051834 ^-.0039155 ^-9.093328		^-.034323 ^.0649209 ^.0001953 ^-.0528578 ^2.042096 ^-.0024319 ^-.0075779 ^.5598008 ^.2013657 ^.2293898

Tableau 4 : Intervalle de comparaison du Fisher calculé

^{Pesaran/Shin/Smith (2001) ARDL Bounds Test}

^{H0: no levels relationship F} = ^4.803

^t = ^-4.830

^{Critical Values (0.1-0.01), F-statistic, Case 3}

^{[I_0] [I_1]}

^{[I_0] [I_1]}

^{[I_0] [I_1]}

^{L_025 L_025}

^{[I_0] [I_1]}

^{L_01 L_01}

^k_7

^{2.96 4.26}

^{accept if F} < ^{critical value for I(0) regressors reject if F} > ^{critical value for I(1) regressors}

^{L_1 L_1}

^{L_05 L_05}

^{Critical Values (0.1-0.01), t-statistic, Case 3}

2.03 3.13

^{[I_0] [I_1]}

^{2.32 3.50}

^{[I_0] [I_1]}

^{2.60 3.84}

^{[I_0] [I_1]}

^{[I_0] [I_1]}

^{L_01 L_01}

^k_7

^{-2.57 -4.23}

^{-2.86 -4.57}

^{-3.13 -4.85}

^{-3.43 -5.19}

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^{accept if t} > ^{critical value for I(0) regressors reject if t} < ^{critical value for I(1) regressors}

^{L_1 L_1}

^{L_05 L_05}

^{L_025 L_025}

^k: # ^{of non-deterministic regressors in long-run relationship}

^{Critical values from Pesaran/Shin/Smith (2001)}

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Tableau 5 : Estimation de relation de court terme et long terme

^Sample: 1992		- ^2019 ^48.673283			^Number of obs ^R-squared ^Adj R-squared ^Root MSE			=
^Log likelihood = ^D.lconsel				^t		^P>|t|	= =
^ADJ ^lconsel	^Coef.		^Std. Err.				^[95% Conf.		^Interval]
	^-1.54238		^.3193274	^-4.83		^0.001	^-2.253885
^L1. ^LR ^tempss	^-.101141		^.0299882	^-3.37		^0.007	^-.167959		^-.8308738
^tempsp	^.0443777		^.0092199	^4.81		^0.001	^.0238344
^precip	^-.0000989		^.000132	^-0.75		^0.471	^-.0003931
^lpib	^-.3981546		^.1549709	^-2.57		^0.028	^-.7434514		^-.034323
^lpoptot	^1.18217		^.3859393	^3.06		^0.012	^.3222434		^.0649209
^lprixel	^-.9811669		^.337722	^-2.91		^0.016	^-1.733658		^.0001953
^emissco	^-.018107		^.0047255	^-3.83		^0.003	^-.0286361		^-.0528578
^SR ^lconsel									^2.042096 ^-.2286754 ^-.0075779
^tempss	^.1726231		^.1737673	^0.99		^0.344	^-.2145546
^LD.	^.0766466		^.0559746	^1.37		^0.201	^-.0480726		^.5598008
^D1. ^tempsp	^.1311945		^.0440706	^2.98		^0.014	^.0329991		^.2013657
^LD.	^-.0498487		^.0142448	^-3.50		^0.006	^-.0815882		^.2293898
^D1. ^lpoptot	^-.0334341		^.0084989	^-3.93		^0.003	^-.0523708		^-.0181093
^LD. ^lprixel	^28.05072		^14.70548	^1.91		^0.086	^-4.715132		^-.0144975
^D1.	^.4557561		^.6932104	^0.66		^0.526	^-1.088813		^60.81657
^D1. ^emissco	^2.123449		^.7342652	^2.89		^0.016	^.4874043		^2.000325
^LD.	^.0075805		^.0051595	^1.47		^0.173	^-.0039155
^_cons	^4.681863		^3.934385	^1.19		^0.262	^-4.084492

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Figure : Etat de stabilité du modèle

xvii

Table des matières

DEDICACE II

REMERCIEMENTS III

LISTES DES ABREVIATIONS V

LISTE DES FIGURES VI

LISTE DES GRAPHIQUES VI

LISTE DES TABLEAUX VII

SOMMAIRE VIII

INTRODUCTION GENERALE 1