ANNEXES
Annexe 1 : Données de
l'étude
Annexe 2 : Stationnarité des variables de
l'étude
Annexe 3 :
Hétéroscédasticité des résidus
Annexe 4 : Autocorrélation des
résidus
Annexe 5 : Le test de Hausman
Annexe 6 : Le modèle à effets
fixes
Annexe 7 : Le modèle à effets
aléatoires
Annexe 8 : La régression par pays
Annexe 1 : Données d'étude (toutes ces
données sont en US $ Courant)
|
Pays
|
Années
|
PIBH
|
k
|
VA AGR
|
VA IND
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
1995
|
626,955746
|
1161211545
|
1918648334
|
2544874233
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
1996
|
679,777381
|
1385910070
|
2128435199
|
2783956095
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
1997
|
668,996218
|
1488919276
|
2249475638
|
2778209602
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
1998
|
637,390826
|
1448817823
|
2253380747
|
2598876762
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
1999
|
675,950159
|
1558197926
|
2366747833
|
3117381516
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
2000
|
583,094859
|
1581438994
|
1900966236
|
3093108203
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
2001
|
589,165139
|
1994047666
|
1969453931
|
2896494630
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
2002
|
648,298761
|
2194387967
|
2224746307
|
3217702720
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
2003
|
790,895343
|
2353408839
|
2742772091
|
3866405338
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
2004
|
892,525739
|
3216682442
|
2991653229
|
4481654781
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
2005
|
914,55312
|
2781630122
|
3157536664
|
4907784546
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
2006
|
964,601535
|
2566946191
|
3473770046
|
5491784884
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
2007
|
1069,85683
|
3072694269
|
3923240342
|
6176338258
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
2008
|
1211,30419
|
4159176227
|
266482916
|
703692907
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
2009
|
1102,52039
|
3623226124
|
271772878
|
1199582355
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
2010
|
1090,61907
|
3681429025
|
1382658030
|
1582180319
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
2011
|
1204,69821
|
4875634238
|
1791296316
|
2108454575
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
2012
|
1166,91341
|
4886354767
|
354063386
|
2214907376
|
|
CAMEROUN
|
2013
|
386,530892
|
1378047819
|
1132617560
|
2445203978
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
1995
|
340,50474
|
157482216
|
491495089
|
224294006
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
1996
|
300,806324
|
73317020,5
|
505512211
|
163003819
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
1997
|
273,814488
|
94526118,1
|
482153105
|
128524818
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
1998
|
276,529353
|
106530742
|
498564480
|
129278364
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
1999
|
280,003087
|
129551912
|
482845234
|
134709315
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
2000
|
251,35264
|
101256183
|
452683271
|
127100471
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
2001
|
251,571807
|
95427456,2
|
475474530
|
127592762
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
2002
|
263,159703
|
95420553,3
|
504618573
|
131583178
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
2003
|
297,614387
|
72998928,2
|
618535519
|
148814340
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
2004
|
326,197313
|
86519618,2
|
668177918
|
169191720
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
2005
|
340,907867
|
131928347
|
698146538
|
181150975
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
2006
|
365,497083
|
149476914
|
767888491
|
198192109
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
2007
|
413,481439
|
169947100
|
869182993
|
229968732
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
2008
|
474,389479
|
230374697
|
1043470033
|
250363046
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
2009
|
464,513231
|
223587601
|
1012353888
|
253934885
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
2010
|
456,563409
|
280188650
|
998743281
|
254408386
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
2011
|
498,780067
|
328822086
|
1149730790
|
288403863
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
2012
|
482,669727
|
320247424
|
1119151089
|
282862535
|
|
CENTRAFRIQUE
|
2013
|
329,719201
|
26094745,8
|
293968235
|
85791829,2
|
|
CONGO
|
1995
|
777,761597
|
773878530
|
221176697
|
949416998
|
|
CONGO
|
1996
|
908,179499
|
833105220
|
228324592
|
1317167039
|
|
CONGO
|
1997
|
806,966776
|
516419079
|
212277714
|
1320781998
|
|
CONGO
|
1998
|
658,306776
|
520206927
|
213576779
|
897870000
|
|
CONGO
|
1999
|
773,182046
|
653728386
|
196686975
|
1442262875
|
|
CONGO
|
2000
|
1029,97458
|
728535513
|
170792208
|
2323251574
|
|
CONGO
|
2001
|
871,670943
|
736472907
|
162065156
|
1829917511
|
|
CONGO
|
2002
|
919,687014
|
706907947
|
189099327
|
1912227485
|
|
CONGO
|
2003
|
1039,3798
|
912083483
|
219373591
|
2138505383
|
|
CONGO
|
2004
|
1347,87091
|
1046887059
|
256111850
|
3061795402
|
|
CONGO
|
2005
|
1718,10082
|
1228979769
|
276604383
|
4375430121
|
|
CONGO
|
2006
|
2120,09785
|
1672461722
|
306182881
|
5837172943
|
|
CONGO
|
2007
|
2233,30825
|
1831096051
|
363263231
|
6148340544
|
|
CONGO
|
2008
|
3059,22653
|
2170553081
|
436050201
|
9180497863
|
|
CONGO
|
2009
|
2401,29816
|
2159794753
|
432274976
|
6822630341
|
|
CONGO
|
2010
|
2920,40671
|
2464397628
|
459949910
|
9051203454
|
|
CONGO
|
2011
|
3414,05471
|
3645711737
|
488035238
|
1041588743
|
|
CONGO
|
2012
|
3153,73946
|
806159489
|
140922553
|
677357846
|
|
CONGO
|
2013
|
289,498097
|
240188741
|
171585736
|
804784260
|
|
GABON
|
1995
|
4589,49672
|
1155568064
|
398278327
|
2596622433
|
|
GABON
|
1996
|
5135,78991
|
1414908674
|
403868671
|
3152560529
|
|
GABON
|
1997
|
4683,27845
|
1638598929
|
384464237
|
2857953628
|
|
GABON
|
1998
|
3843,39582
|
1773534830
|
314771492
|
1934225896
|
|
GABON
|
1999
|
3899,08664
|
1220238825
|
340101178
|
2276274120
|
|
GABON
|
2000
|
4135,25406
|
1109966762
|
314898134
|
2850937697
|
|
GABON
|
2001
|
3754,36392
|
1211644806
|
300257078
|
2419654606
|
|
GABON
|
2002
|
3836,79668
|
1208803028
|
300148552
|
2549540998
|
|
GABON
|
2003
|
4601,60445
|
1450453386
|
367515287
|
3149172422
|
|
GABON
|
2004
|
5328,48519
|
1750972592
|
404516648
|
3969449742
|
|
GABON
|
2005
|
6281,95468
|
1846704163
|
423532687
|
5316908780
|
|
GABON
|
2006
|
6756,27116
|
2469983943
|
471609609
|
5839659125
|
|
GABON
|
2007
|
7994,30483
|
2997024084
|
560741030
|
6971748174
|
|
GABON
|
2008
|
10577,9168
|
3654695830
|
636617778
|
1,0083E+10
|
|
GABON
|
2009
|
7919,71089
|
3031879637
|
644898775
|
6397199329
|
|
GABON
|
2010
|
9321,95587
|
4352109842
|
591630661
|
8659564502
|
|
GABON
|
2011
|
11768,6063
|
5796703595
|
714951257
|
1,2008E+10
|
|
GABON
|
2012
|
11256,5228
|
5696896003
|
717108844
|
1,1424E+10
|
|
GABON
|
2013
|
2430,619
|
207120150
|
314663998
|
1871459773
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
1995
|
371,14036
|
1506037,66
|
83099370,1
|
43874725,2
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
1996
|
567,6601
|
14025433,8
|
93608305,7
|
124327432
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
1997
|
1056,13238
|
1881507,5
|
115250545
|
338033841
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
1998
|
936,815256
|
13649612,1
|
97965634,6
|
300194029
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
1999
|
1736,5007
|
2403815,75
|
111418055
|
694170217
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
2000
|
2398,4933
|
12066666,7
|
120523679
|
1055135887
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
2001
|
3247,55355
|
12683333,3
|
122954250
|
1511030838
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
2002
|
3893,29744
|
14772893,1
|
134571876
|
1874483783
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
2003
|
5192,7693
|
14042857,1
|
159663713
|
2585293154
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
2004
|
8943,67629
|
85884664,1
|
211836983
|
4772941092
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
2005
|
13612,8479
|
76715613,9
|
213008921
|
7705096108
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
2006
|
15451,1997
|
66331021,5
|
263955997
|
8992619147
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
2007
|
19660,0804
|
58908510,6
|
334112285
|
1,18E+10
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
2008
|
23511,0971
|
55938906,3
|
365391536
|
1,4554E+10
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
2009
|
15300,6997
|
52915514,2
|
369345751
|
9344828697
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
2010
|
17612,7579
|
47982854,8
|
465799926
|
1,0901E+10
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
2011
|
23473,4356
|
15662107,6
|
530870924
|
1,5019E+10
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
2012
|
24035,7061
|
14646412,6
|
75630892,9
|
34942067,6
|
|
GUINEE EQ
|
2013
|
385,819446
|
13629786,4
|
70986554,3
|
43874725,2
|
|
TCHAD
|
1995
|
207,141431
|
190752803
|
506920640
|
192928586
|
|
TCHAD
|
1996
|
222,737508
|
325490014
|
603524728
|
200065478
|
|
TCHAD
|
1997
|
206,970087
|
300979348
|
592306023
|
211114211
|
|
TCHAD
|
1998
|
225,88337
|
295467354
|
680556176
|
224592663
|
|
TCHAD
|
1999
|
191,764697
|
210119832
|
584231803
|
187451054
|
|
TCHAD
|
2000
|
166,851345
|
322357094
|
563789247
|
151146717
|
|
TCHAD
|
2001
|
198,279113
|
688018923
|
688789179
|
223636647
|
|
TCHAD
|
2002
|
221,833734
|
1195677491
|
753367522
|
283431758
|
|
TCHAD
|
2003
|
293,910179
|
1426399111
|
883560770
|
640749543
|
|
TCHAD
|
2004
|
456,794431
|
1072115738
|
1010894106
|
2029776327
|
|
TCHAD
|
2005
|
663,709697
|
1408054029
|
3576843503
|
614095855
|
|
TCHAD
|
2006
|
716,638996
|
1694347697
|
4139449112
|
744774079
|
|
TCHAD
|
2007
|
807,78157
|
1857151687
|
4723064905
|
838391939
|
|
TCHAD
|
2008
|
938,471829
|
2261027506
|
5651103468
|
1083708825
|
|
TCHAD
|
2009
|
813,75603
|
2616128473
|
4307440734
|
1222375253
|
|
TCHAD
|
2010
|
909,299907
|
3622013382
|
5536211300
|
1275520808
|
|
TCHAD
|
2011
|
1006,31977
|
3499933457
|
6223604665
|
1532798501
|
|
TCHAD
|
2012
|
1035,25795
|
3420778010
|
6964762008
|
1584832506
|
|
TCHAD
|
2013
|
172,348098
|
122822457
|
338230586
|
162531396
|
Annexe 2 : Stationnarité des variables de
l'étude
Annexe 2.1 : Le produit intérieur brut par
tête (PIBH)
|
Panel unit root test: Summary
|
|
|
Series: LOG(PIBH)
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 09:15
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Exogenous variables: Individualeffects
|
|
User-specifiedlags: 0
|
|
|
|
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
|
|
Balanced observations for each test
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cross-
|
|
|
Method
|
Statistic
|
Prob.**
|
sections
|
Obs
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
Levin, Lin & Chu t*
|
1.01633
|
0.8453
|
6
|
108
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)
|
|
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat
|
0.26283
|
0.6037
|
6
|
108
|
|
ADF - Fisher Chi-square
|
7.42090
|
0.8286
|
6
|
108
|
|
PP - Fisher Chi-square
|
7.86335
|
0.7957
|
6
|
108
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an
asymptotic Chi
|
|
-square
distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
|
Annexe 2.2: Le capital physique par tête (k)
|
Panel unit root test: Summary
|
|
|
Series: LOG(k)
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 09:16
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Exogenous variables: Individualeffects
|
|
User-specifiedlags: 0
|
|
|
|
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
|
|
Balanced observations for each test
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cross-
|
|
|
Method
|
Statistic
|
Prob.**
|
sections
|
Obs
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
Levin, Lin & Chu t*
|
0.39512
|
0.6536
|
6
|
108
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)
|
|
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat
|
-0.86926
|
0.1924
|
6
|
108
|
|
ADF - Fisher Chi-square
|
14.2809
|
0.2831
|
6
|
108
|
|
PP - Fisher Chi-square
|
14.2493
|
0.2851
|
6
|
108
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an
asymptotic Chi
|
|
-square
distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
|
Annexe 2.3: La valeur ajoutée agricole
(VAAGR)
|
Panel unit root test: Summary
|
|
|
Series: LOG(VAAGR)
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 09:17
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Exogenous variables: Individualeffects
|
|
User-specifiedlags: 0
|
|
|
|
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
|
|
Balanced observations for each test
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cross-
|
|
|
Method
|
Statistic
|
Prob.**
|
sections
|
Obs
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
Levin, Lin & Chu t*
|
-0.01432
|
0.4943
|
6
|
108
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)
|
|
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat
|
-0.47844
|
0.3162
|
6
|
108
|
|
ADF - Fisher Chi-square
|
11.3282
|
0.5010
|
6
|
108
|
|
PP - Fisher Chi-square
|
11.2573
|
0.5070
|
6
|
108
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an
asymptotic Chi
|
|
-square
distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
|
Annexe 2.4: La
valeurajoutéeindustrielle
|
Panel unit root test: Summary
|
|
|
Series: LOG(VAIND)
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 09:18
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Exogenous variables: Individualeffects
|
|
User-specifiedlags: 0
|
|
|
|
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
|
|
Balanced observations for each test
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cross-
|
|
|
Method
|
Statistic
|
Prob.**
|
sections
|
Obs
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)
|
|
Levin, Lin & Chu t*
|
-0.00846
|
0.4966
|
6
|
108
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)
|
|
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat
|
-0.58949
|
0.2778
|
6
|
108
|
|
ADF - Fisher Chi-square
|
11.6791
|
0.4718
|
6
|
108
|
|
PP - Fisher Chi-square
|
12.0094
|
0.4449
|
6
|
108
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an
asymptotic Chi
|
|
-square
distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
|
Annexe 3:
Hétéroscédasticité
Annexe 3.1: Detection de
l'hétéroscédasticité
Annexe 3.2: Correction de
l'hétéroscédasticité
Annexe 4: Test d'autocorrélation
Annexe 5: Le test de Hausman
Annexe 5.1: Le modèle 1
Annexe 5.2: Le modèle 2
Annexe 6: Le test à effet fixe
Annexe 6.1 : Le modèle 1
Annexe 6.2 : Le modèle 2
Annexe 7 : Le test à effet
aléatoire
Annexe 7.1: Le modèle 1
Annexe 7.2 : Le modèle 2
Annexe 8 : La régression par pays
Annexe 8.1 : Le modèle 1
Le Cameroun
|
Dependent Variable: LOG(PIBH)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 13:07
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 18
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
-7.271906
|
2.894763
|
-2.512090
|
0.0249
|
|
LOG(k)
|
0.629203
|
0.093519
|
6.728047
|
0.0000
|
|
LOG(VAAGR)
|
0.074368
|
0.098574
|
0.754438
|
0.4631
|
|
LOG(VAIND)
|
-0.055417
|
0.159558
|
-0.347313
|
0.7335
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.782559
|
Meandependent var
|
6.661619
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.735964
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.308111
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.158321
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-0.655253
|
|
Sumsquaredresid
|
0.350918
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-0.457393
|
|
Log likelihood
|
9.897281
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-0.627971
|
|
F-statistic
|
16.79506
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.852528
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000065
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
La Centrafrique
|
Dependent Variable: LOG(PIBH)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 13:10
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 19
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
-7.989513
|
2.022864
|
-3.949605
|
0.0013
|
|
LOG(k)
|
-0.187584
|
0.108595
|
-1.727369
|
0.1046
|
|
LOG(VAAGR)
|
0.336151
|
0.196146
|
1.713780
|
0.1072
|
|
LOG(VAIND)
|
0.553722
|
0.244927
|
2.260769
|
0.0391
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.805220
|
Meandependent var
|
5.836373
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.766264
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.237766
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.114951
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-1.303965
|
|
Sumsquaredresid
|
0.198205
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-1.105135
|
|
Log likelihood
|
16.38766
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-1.270315
|
|
F-statistic
|
20.67003
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.602080
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000014
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Le Congo
|
Dependent Variable: LOG(PIBH)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 13:13
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 19 afteradjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
-4.129327
|
3.576847
|
-1.154460
|
0.2664
|
|
LOG(k)
|
1.330105
|
0.196374
|
6.773310
|
0.0000
|
|
LOG(VAAGR)
|
-0.877146
|
0.350229
|
-2.504493
|
0.0243
|
|
LOG(VAIND)
|
0.032426
|
0.101888
|
0.318253
|
0.7547
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.871144
|
Meandependent var
|
7.181814
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.845373
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.670108
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.263504
|
Akaike info criterion
|
0.355166
|
|
Sumsquaredresid
|
1.041514
|
Schwarz criterion
|
0.553995
|
|
Log likelihood
|
0.625924
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
0.388816
|
|
F-statistic
|
33.80314
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.688345
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000001
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
La Gabon
|
Dependent Variable: LOG(PIBH)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 13:17
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 19
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
-9.608223
|
1.004410
|
-9.566037
|
0.0000
|
|
LOG(k)
|
0.199413
|
0.023655
|
8.429884
|
0.0000
|
|
LOG(VAAGR)
|
0.339839
|
0.100023
|
3.397619
|
0.0040
|
|
LOG(VAIND)
|
0.326669
|
0.054439
|
6.000622
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.993451
|
Meandependent var
|
8.642470
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.992141
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.439696
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.038979
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-3.466933
|
|
Sumsquaredresid
|
0.022790
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-3.268103
|
|
Log likelihood
|
36.93586
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-3.433283
|
|
F-statistic
|
758.4810
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.409853
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
La Guinée Equatoriale
|
Dependent Variable: LOG(PIBH)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 13:20
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 19
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
-22.48795
|
11.50906
|
-1.953935
|
0.0696
|
|
LOG(k)
|
0.437820
|
0.238422
|
1.836320
|
0.0862
|
|
LOG(VAAGR)
|
1.235518
|
0.862764
|
1.432046
|
0.1726
|
|
LOG(VAIND)
|
0.009096
|
0.274264
|
0.033164
|
0.9740
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.686446
|
Meandependent var
|
8.418194
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.623736
|
S.D. dependent var
|
1.482908
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.909622
|
Akaike info criterion
|
2.833088
|
|
Sumsquaredresid
|
12.41118
|
Schwarz criterion
|
3.031917
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-22.91434
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
2.866738
|
|
F-statistic
|
10.94624
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.263070
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000460
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Le Tchad
|
Dependent Variable: LOG(PIBH)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 13:22
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 19
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
-9.092103
|
0.269347
|
-33.75609
|
0.0000
|
|
LOG(k)
|
-0.148685
|
0.030927
|
-4.807640
|
0.0002
|
|
LOG(VAAGR)
|
0.571035
|
0.026907
|
21.22223
|
0.0000
|
|
LOG(VAIND)
|
0.302760
|
0.029830
|
10.14959
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.995747
|
Meandependent var
|
5.973460
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.994896
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.716814
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.051212
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-2.921034
|
|
Sumsquaredresid
|
0.039340
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-2.722205
|
|
Log likelihood
|
31.74982
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-2.887384
|
|
F-statistic
|
1170.508
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.264152
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Annexe 8.2 : Le modèle 2
Le Cameroun
|
Dependent Variable: LOG(VAIND)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 17:37
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 18
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
6.473873
|
5.551838
|
1.166078
|
0.2631
|
|
LOG(PIBH)
|
-0.154152
|
0.443841
|
-0.347313
|
0.7335
|
|
LOG(k)
|
0.256170
|
0.313532
|
0.817045
|
0.4276
|
|
LOG(VAAGR)
|
0.508613
|
0.098236
|
5.177471
|
0.0001
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.666315
|
Meandependent var
|
21.80529
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.594812
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.414825
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.264054
|
Akaike info criterion
|
0.367805
|
|
Sumsquaredresid
|
0.976144
|
Schwarz criterion
|
0.565665
|
|
Log likelihood
|
0.689758
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
0.395087
|
|
F-statistic
|
9.318600
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.381874
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.001217
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
La Centrafrique
|
Dependent Variable: LOG(VAIND)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 17:40
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 19
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
6.945918
|
1.924235
|
3.609703
|
0.0026
|
|
LOG(PIBH)
|
0.458971
|
0.203015
|
2.260769
|
0.0391
|
|
LOG(k)
|
0.252089
|
0.086503
|
2.914215
|
0.0107
|
|
LOG(VAAGR)
|
0.229157
|
0.186100
|
1.231367
|
0.2371
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.922482
|
Meandependent var
|
18.97982
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.906978
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.343135
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.104654
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-1.491642
|
|
Sumsquaredresid
|
0.164288
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-1.292812
|
|
Log likelihood
|
18.17059
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-1.457992
|
|
F-statistic
|
59.50082
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.648560
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Le Congo
|
Dependent Variable: LOG(VAIND)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 17:42
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 19
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
-4.420933
|
9.357223
|
-0.472462
|
0.6434
|
|
LOG(PIBH)
|
0.206840
|
0.649924
|
0.318253
|
0.7547
|
|
LOG(k)
|
0.053721
|
0.999071
|
0.053771
|
0.9578
|
|
LOG(VAAGR)
|
1.207809
|
1.006159
|
1.200416
|
0.2486
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.493684
|
Meandependent var
|
21.54251
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.392421
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.853798
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.665513
|
Akaike info criterion
|
2.208147
|
|
Sumsquaredresid
|
6.643617
|
Schwarz criterion
|
2.406977
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-16.97740
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
2.241797
|
|
F-statistic
|
4.875262
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.189661
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.014620
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Le Gabon
|
Dependent Variable: LOG(VAIND)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 17:43
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 19
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
17.02278
|
5.297994
|
3.213061
|
0.0058
|
|
LOG(PIBH)
|
2.160979
|
0.360126
|
6.000622
|
0.0000
|
|
LOG(k)
|
-0.376874
|
0.108489
|
-3.473844
|
0.0034
|
|
LOG(VAAGR)
|
-0.276584
|
0.334686
|
-0.826400
|
0.4215
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.978069
|
Meandependent var
|
22.15898
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.973683
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.617990
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.100254
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-1.577564
|
|
Sumsquaredresid
|
0.150762
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-1.378735
|
|
Log likelihood
|
18.98686
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-1.543914
|
|
F-statistic
|
222.9892
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.498756
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
La Guinée Equatoriale
|
Dependent Variable: LOG(VAIND)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 17:46
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 19
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
-34.47760
|
8.247253
|
-4.180495
|
0.0008
|
|
LOG(PIBH)
|
0.008061
|
0.243057
|
0.033164
|
0.9740
|
|
LOG(k)
|
0.248560
|
0.239965
|
1.035819
|
0.3167
|
|
LOG(VAAGR)
|
2.707521
|
0.511018
|
5.298289
|
0.0001
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.862909
|
Meandependent var
|
21.03801
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.835491
|
S.D. dependent var
|
2.111231
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.856308
|
Akaike info criterion
|
2.712291
|
|
Sumsquaredresid
|
10.99896
|
Schwarz criterion
|
2.911120
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-21.76676
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
2.745941
|
|
F-statistic
|
31.47224
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.368156
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000001
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Le Tchad
|
Dependent Variable: LOG(VAIND)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 11/24/15 Time: 17:48
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1995 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 19
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
26.75755
|
2.332580
|
11.47123
|
0.0000
|
|
LOG(PIBH)
|
2.883131
|
0.284064
|
10.14959
|
0.0000
|
|
LOG(k)
|
0.501541
|
0.079835
|
6.282200
|
0.0000
|
|
LOG(VAAGR)
|
-1.622767
|
0.195832
|
-8.286509
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.975178
|
Meandependent var
|
20.00084
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.970214
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.915686
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.158035
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-0.667342
|
|
Sumsquaredresid
|
0.374624
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-0.468512
|
|
Log likelihood
|
10.33975
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-0.633692
|
|
F-statistic
|
196.4376
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.651577
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
