ANNEXES
Annexe 1 : Les données utilisées dans le
modèle économétrique (en miilards de Frw)
|
Année
|
PIB réel
|
M2
|
Marge d'intermédiation
bancaire
|
|
1990
|
632.7
|
32
|
1.25
|
|
1991
|
611.3
|
34
|
1.09
|
|
1992
|
651.7
|
38
|
0.77
|
|
1993
|
591.2
|
38
|
0.95
|
|
1994
|
310.7
|
32
|
1.13
|
|
1995
|
411.2
|
63
|
0.62
|
|
1996
|
473.5
|
70
|
2.06
|
|
1997
|
552.5
|
90
|
1.81
|
|
1998
|
598.4
|
92
|
3.66
|
|
1999
|
987.0
|
98
|
4.33
|
|
2000
|
1070.0
|
120
|
4.18
|
|
2001
|
1160.0
|
131
|
5.44
|
|
2002
|
1314.0
|
147
|
6.28
|
|
2003
|
1342.0
|
168
|
9.16
|
|
2004
|
1436.8
|
185
|
9.29
|
|
2005
|
1571.4
|
218
|
13.34
|
|
2006
|
1716.4
|
286
|
16.42
|
|
2007
|
1848.7
|
375
|
24.25
|
|
2008
|
2063.5
|
384
|
33.29
|
|
2009
|
2187.0
|
402
|
24.17
|
Source : BNR, Département de
recherche et analyse économique
Annexe 2 : Tableaux des lags LPIBr
|
LAG
|
AKAIKE
|
SCHWARZ
|
|
TR&I
|
INT
|
NONE
|
TR&I
|
INT
|
NONE
|
|
0
|
-0.357
|
-0.124
|
-0.225
|
-0.208
|
-0.025
|
-0.176
|
|
1
|
-0.247
|
0.037
|
-0.066
|
-0.050
|
0.186
|
0.032
|
|
2
|
-0.330
|
0.231
|
0.121
|
-0.085
|
0.427
|
0.268
|
|
3
|
-0.807
|
0.387
|
0.287
|
-0.518
|
0.628
|
0.480
|
|
4
|
-2.718
|
-1.352
|
-0.873
|
-2.387
|
-1.069
|
-0.637
|
|
5
|
-2.562
|
-1.989
|
-1.835
|
-2.197
|
-1.669
|
-1.561
|
|
6
|
-2.318
|
-2.222
|
-1.921
|
-1.927
|
-1.875
|
-1.617
|
|
7
|
-1.981
|
-1.956
|
-1.785
|
-1.577
|
-1.593
|
-1.461
|
LM2
|
LAG
|
AKAIKE
|
SCHWARZ
|
|
TR&I
|
INT
|
NONE
|
TR&I
|
INT
|
NONE
|
|
0
|
-1.038
|
-1.703
|
-0.673
|
-0.888
|
-0.503
|
-0.623
|
|
1
|
-0.912
|
-0.509
|
-0.575
|
-0.714
|
-0.361
|
-0.476
|
|
2
|
-0.918
|
-0.337
|
-0.409
|
-0.672
|
-0.140
|
-0.261
|
|
3
|
-0.843
|
-0.255
|
-0.293
|
-0.553
|
-0.014
|
-0.101
|
|
4
|
-1.722
|
-1.177
|
-0.534
|
-1.392
|
-0.893
|
-0.298
|
|
5
|
-2.172
|
-1.593
|
-1.645
|
-1.807
|
-1.273
|
-1.371
|
|
6
|
-2.244
|
-1.527
|
-1.431
|
-1.853
|
-1.179
|
-1.127
|
|
7
|
-2.583
|
-1.680
|
-1.796
|
-2.179
|
-1.316
|
-1.472
|
LMi
|
LAG
|
AKAIKE
|
SCHWARZ
|
|
TR&I
|
INT
|
NONE
|
TR&I
|
INT
|
NONE
|
|
0
|
0.532
|
1.142
|
1.131
|
0.681
|
1.241
|
1.181
|
|
1
|
0.375
|
1.042
|
1.096
|
0.573
|
1.190
|
1.195
|
|
2
|
0.545
|
0.987
|
1.202
|
0.789
|
1.183
|
1.349
|
|
3
|
0.497
|
1.019
|
1.293
|
0.786
|
1.259
|
1.487
|
|
4
|
-0.491
|
1.252
|
1.409
|
-0.160
|
1.534
|
1.645
|
|
5
|
-0.519
|
-0.053
|
1.479
|
-0.154
|
0.267
|
1.754
|
|
6
|
-0.657
|
0.235
|
1.574
|
-0.266
|
0.583
|
1.878
|
|
7
|
-1.739
|
0.264
|
0.900
|
-1.335
|
0.627
|
1.224
|
Annexe 3 : La stationnarité à niveau pour
le PIB LPIB-MODEL3
ADF Test Statistic -6.025170 1% Critical Value* -4.7315
5% Critical Value -3.7611
10% Critical Value -3.3228
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit
root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LPIB) Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/30/10 Time: 10:33 Sample(adjusted): 1995 2009
Included observations: 15 after adjusting endpoints
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
LPIB(-1)
|
-1.079918
|
0.179235 -6.025170
|
0.0003
|
|
D(LPIB(-1))
|
0.271305
|
0.092476 2.933789
|
0.0189
|
|
D(LPIB(-2))
|
0.344366
|
0.081359 4.232682
|
0.0029
|
|
D(LPIB(-3))
|
0.330339
|
0.078936 4.184911
|
0.0031
|
|
D(LPIB(-4))
|
0.405305
|
0.077625 5.221316
|
0.0008
|
|
C
|
6.135777
|
0.970330 6.323389
|
0.0002
|
|
@TREND(1990)
|
0.110666
|
0.020982 5.274420
|
0.0008
|
|
R-squared
|
0.883421
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.130097
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.795987
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.118207
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.053392
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-2.717603
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.022805
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-2.387180
|
|
Log likelihood
|
27.38202
|
F-statistic
|
10.10383
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.430372
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.002279
|
Annexe 4 : La stationnarité à niveau pour
la marge d'intermédiation bancaire LMi-MODEL3
ADF Test Statistic -4.023158 1% Critical Value* -4.5348
5% Critical Value -3.6746
10% Critical Value -3.2762
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit
root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LMI)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/06/10 Time: 10:42
Sample(adjusted): 1991 2009
Included observations: 19 after adjusting endpoints
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
LMI(-1)
|
-0.816521
|
0.202955
|
-4.023158
|
0.0010
|
|
C
|
-0.557454
|
0.207347
|
-2.688504
|
0.0161
|
|
@TREND(1990)
|
0.179731
|
0.043965
|
4.088043
|
0.0009
|
|
R-squared
|
0.512729
|
Mean dependent var
|
|
0.156007
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.451820
|
S.D. dependent var
|
|
0.396771
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.293766
|
Akaike info criterion
|
|
0.531875
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
1.380778
|
Schwarz criterion
|
|
0.680997
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-2.052809
|
F-statistic
|
|
8.417957
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.401697
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
|
0.003178
|
Annexe 5 : La stationnarité de variable M2 en
première différence LM2-MODEL 3
ADF Test Statistic -5.052866 1% Critical Value* -4.5743
5% Critical Value -3.6920
10% Critical Value -3.2856
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit
root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LM2,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/30/10 Time: 10:51
Sample(adjusted): 1992 2009
Included observations: 18 after adjusting endpoints
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
D(LM2(-1))
|
-1.268381
|
0.251022 -5.052866
|
0.0001
|
|
C
|
0.159468
|
0.095782 1.664908
|
0.1167
|
|
@TREND(1990)
|
0.001462
|
0.007952 0.183859
|
0.8566
|
|
R-squared
|
0.631467
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.000519
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.582329
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.268974
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.173831
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-0.510456
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.453257
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-0.362061
|
|
Log likelihood
|
7.594108
|
F-statistic
|
12.85095
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.041374
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000560
|
| 
