Research Topic
Financing problems of photovoltaic
panels in Cameroon
Research Paper
Geneva Business School
Degree of Bachelor in Finance
Submitted by:
TCHABA NOUKEU Rommel Geneva, Switzerland
Approved on the application of
Dr. Brahim GACEM And
Dr Victor YERIS
March 2013
Summary
Illustrations 3
Abbreviations 4
Forward 1
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Context 1
1.2 The Process of the research 2
1.3 Problematic & Hypothesis 2
1.4 Methodologies 3
1.4.1 Structure 3
1.4.2 Approach and perspectives 3
2 Presentation and aspects of photovoltaic technology in Cameroon
4
2.1 Overview of the sector 4
2.2 Definition of photovoltaic panel 5
2.3 Concepts and method of use of a photovoltaic panels 5
2.3.1 The Concepts of photovoltaic panels 5
2.3.2 Method of use of a photovoltaic panels 6
2.4 Regulatory and institutional aspects 6
2.5 Environmental aspects 7
2.6 Economical and Commercial aspects 8
3 Barriers to financing of photovoltaic panels in Cameroon 12
3.1 Institutional Barriers 12
3.1.1 Question of corruption 12
3.1.2 Question of Competitiveness 13
3.2 Economical and Financial barriers 13
3.2.1 Question of currency 13
4 Analysis of an investment project of photovoltaic panels in
Cameroon 16
4.1 Operational hypothesis 16
4.2 Recovery Hypothesis 16
4.3 Result 16
5 Conclusion of the model 19
5.1 General Conclusion: 19
Bibliography & References 19
Illustrations
Figure 1: Map of Cameroon 19
Figure 2 : Solar Panel Diagram 19
Figure 3: solar cell 20
Figure 4: A solar system in a household (with a television)
20
Figure 5: Evolution of the demand and supply of electrical
energy 21
Figure 6: Price ranges per kilowatt of the consumption of a
solar equipment 21
Figure 7: Installation's cost of a solar systemn in a
household in Cameroon 22
Figure 8 : internal rate of return and NPV 22
Abbreviations:
A: Ampere
AC: Alternating current
AES-SONEL: American electronic services -National electric
company of Cameroon
AH: ampere by hour
ALUCAM: Aluminium of Cameroun
CEMAC: Central Africa CFA Franc
CPI: Index perception of corruption
DC: Direct current
FCFA: Franc CFA
IRR: Internal rate of return
MVe: Total Market Value of Debt
MVd: Total market Value of shareholder's equity
MW: Megawatts
MWH: Megawatts by hours
NPV: Net present value
KM: Kilometer
KWH: Kilowatt by hour
Rd: Cost of debt in the country
Re: Cost of Equity
T: Corporate taxe rate
OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development
VCC: Positive supply voltage
W: Watt
WACC: weighted average cost of capital
Forward
Native from Africa more precisely from Cameroon. The African
continent is the most poorly electrified continent. I grew up in an environment
where electricity was a luxury or the guarantee of having electricity on a
daily basis was uncertain.
Once I integrated the university and studied subjects such as
Banking investment, Business Administration, Finance and Development,
sociology, the knowledge acquired in these fields of study will serve as tools
that will enable me realise Financial and Economic development of electric
power in my country.
From my point of view, Cameroon1 has the potentials
to provide significant solar electricity for the entire population. In South
Africa, large solar electricity projects have emerged, but in Cameroon solar
electricity projects are not as developed those in South Africa. To make my
point of view clearer in the field of finance and development I asked myself
these questions:
? Can solar energy be a solution to the lack of electricity in
Cameroon?
? What are the key solutions to resolve this problem?
? Is it possible to integrate large-scale solar projects in
Cameroon to enable people to have electricity?
After attending international seminars on solar energy for
Africa, experts said solar energy is clean and inexpensive for Africa. However,
I spoke with a Cameroonian expert who explained that Cameroon has natural
potentials for unlimited integration of this type of project.
However, the solutions were varied, but then they all depended
on the involvement of the state. To this end, the issue of financial aid drew
my attention, firstly I would like to identify the obstacles to financing solar
photovoltaic panels, my presence in the international seminars on solar energy
for Africa allowed me to have a general idea on the importance of this to
Africa and on how to reduce electricity deficit in Africa and precisely
Cameroon.
1
www.thecommonwealth.org
(figure 1)
In addition, my knowledge on Development Finance and banking
investment will allow me to establish a plan on how to help raise funding for
the purchase price per household. My research paper represents the beginning of
my implementation to development finance project and its substitutes that I
would like to develop in the future.
1 Introduction
1.1 Context
Without electrical power available and accessible in quantity
and quality, no economic development is possible. Considering this reality as a
priority, the Government of Cameroon seems to make electricity a priority for
action. Unfortunately, these days have witnessed considerable energy deficit,
where public policy power lack clarity and consistency. This is why we should
consider the issue of solar energy as a solution to energy deficit in
Cameroon.
Regarding solar energy, Cameroon has abundant and available
potentials especially in its northern part. Several arguments appear therefore
in favour of photovoltaic energy: It is clean and requires no external supply
of fuel. Moreover, the photovoltaic generator that captures light rays is
rather simple and does not virtually require maintenance. Therefore, the
required cost of operations and maintenance are relatively low. For example, in
Equatorial Guinea , a photovoltaic generator produces an amazing energy
equivalent to 25 times faster than the usual operation. And the estimated price
rate is 10 Euro per watt of the initial investment. Knowing that a solar panel
has a lifespan exceeding 50 years. This simple example shows that solar energy
could overcome the lack of hydropower and contribute enormously to the
socio-economic development of the country.
The first point of this research is to understand the question
of the high cost and lack of electricity in Cameroon. Considering the case of
Cameroon, the population suffers the effects of liberalization and market
economy.
To this end, AES-Sonel in Cameroon (the Cameroon Electricity
Company), which was privatized by an American company, has a monopoly on the
supply and distribution of electricity. But it is also at the service of its
customers, the largest of its customers is ALUCAM, ALUCAM is one of the
greatest electricity consumer in Cameroon and a potential AES sonel customer
(Group Anglo-Australian RIO TINTO) it consumes about 45% - 50% of electricity
production in Cameroon.2With a consumption like this, it is clear
that ALUCAM's demands comes before that of the
2
Armelopost.wordpress.com
«ELECTRICITE EN AFRIQUE : L'AUTO CRISE»
population of the country. The agreement signed between ALUCAM
and AES-sonel in terms of price per kilowatts is relatively low to that offered
to the population per household. The population faces a lot of electricity cuts
and suspensions, sometimes for days. At first sight, the energy system is not
satisfied, at least there should be renewable energy such as solar energy to
overcome this problem for the welfare of the population, during the process of
my research my interest would be based on suggesting financing solutions
necessary for the long-term resolution of this problem .
1.2 The Process of the research
The process of research will analyse the financial investment
with a vision of the project « Niches carriers of the secondary sector in
Senegal3. In addition, the objective is to study the possibility of
integrating solar panels in Cameroon following a plan investment strategy.
However, we will establish our assumption to the problem while examining the
theories on the topics of our research. For this purpose, the various topics
that will be described are as follows: Presentation and aspects of photovoltaic
technology in Cameroon and Barriers to financing of photovoltaic panels in
Cameroon and the last part will be the Alternatives to the problems financing
photovoltaic panels.
1.3 Problematic & Hypothesis
Most often, we can notice that globalization; investment
processes and financial management are constantly changing. Fragmented and
divided by ethnic conflicts and state politically unstabilty, nevertheless
Africa is more than ever a land of economic promise. Nowadays, growth prospects
are explained by demographic reasons.
More generally, the African continent has moved from the stage
of rural continent to
3
www.dasp-senegal.com
`'CRENEAUX PORTEURS DU SECTER SECONDAIRE `'
an urbanize continent. This proves that Africa's demand for
energy power today is stupendous. At the same time, the need to mobilize
investments for this purpose is required, however, Africa attracts only 2% -3%
of foreign direct investment in the world. Cameroon has a good rate of sunshine
that is the reason why I think we could promote projects on photovoltaic energy
and it has no political investment plan possible on a long-term investment to
allow foreign investors in the sector of solar energy.
The issue is to understand and review what first-aid plan we
can offer for the investment in Cameroon; then to understand what are the tools
necessary in order to optimize a good investment of photovoltaic panels in
Cameroon. To this end, we will highlight some elements based on the assumption
that Cameroon offers investment incentives based on the direct support of
consumer prices for each household in Cameroon.
1.4 Methodologies 1.4.1 Structure
In order to develop this topic, the first step is to identify
the problem and to apprehend the theories and hypotheses related to the subject
(Chapter 1). In Chapter 2 we will discuss the definition of photovoltaic
panels, its uses, different types and economic and environmental aspects. In
Chapter 3, we will examine the financing barriers such as: institutional,
economical and financial barriers. In Chapter 4 we will focus on Analysis of an
investment project of photovoltaic panels in Cameroon.
1.4.2 Approach and perspectives
The main objective of this research is to highlight and to
evidence the brakes to finance solar panels in Cameroon as well as long-term
viable alternatives. However, the financial theories evolve over time and are
consistent with the companies. All Over Africa, in Cameroon particularly
regarding the evolution of financial theories The question of demand and supply
can be answered by realising large-scale projects. This research on
alternatives involve the establishment of a plan using investments to fund the
use of photovoltaic panels while reducing the financial cost associated with
its use by each household.
2 Presentation and aspects of photovoltaic technology in
Cameroon
2.1 Overview of the sector
The world today suffers a global energy crisis, affecting both
oil producing countries as well as non-oil producers. Yet these countries are
developing strategies to cope. In Cameroon, the demand for energy is not
satisfactory and the rate of access to conventional energy is very low in the
order of 15% for electricity and 18% for domestic gas. In addition, access to
electricity is less than 5% in rural areas against 50% in urban areas. After an
analysis of the World Bank, the investment in electricity for developing
countries will be about $ 185 billion per year over the period
2011-2020.However, in the context of diversification of sources of energies,
Cameroon among others interested in an energy of solar origin characterized by
its availability and inexpensive cost. In fact Cameroon is located in the Gulf
of Guinea. It covers an area of 475,442 km2, with an estimated population of
16.3 million and enjoys sunshine estimated 4kwh/j/m2.
In Cameroon, the energetic problem exists because of the lack
of domestic production and AES-Sonel source cuts (load shedding) are permanent
daily. The electric sector in Cameroon is ambiguous.
Electricity sector in Cameroon has faced Challenges such as: -
Increased electrification in all areas both rural and urban:
? Improvement of the access rate to electricity
? Improvement of the quality of service of electricity
? Reduction cost of household consumption through the funding
support of the state
Nevertheless, solar energy is an option to solve the
challenges of the Government in terms of urban and rural electrification.
2.2 Definition of photovoltaic panel
A solar cell (also called a photovoltaic cell) refers to an
electrical device that converts the energy of light directly into electricity
by the photovoltaic effect. It is a form of photoelectric cell (in that its
electrical characteristics-- e.g. current, voltage, or resistance--varies when
light is incident upon it) which, when exposed to light, can generate and
support an electric current without being attached to any external voltage
source. (Figure 2)
2.3 Concepts and method of use of a photovoltaic panels
2.3.1 The Concepts of photovoltaic panels
We will now try to understand how the electricity is generated
from the light, and how that electricity is produced.
Everyone knows that: «Nothing is lost, nothing lives
without transformation, and everything is transformed»4. The
function of a solar cell is to convert light energy into electricity. All
transformers are therefore photo generating energies which, when exposed to
light, produce electrical energy.
Photovoltaic cells are manufactured as electronic chips, the
transistors from semiconductor materials. Nevertheless, the materials have
electrical conduction properties intermediate between those of metals and
insulators and in particular they are the property of converting light into
electrical load they receive5. Here is a diagram explaining the
operation of a solar cell. (Figure 3)
When light enters a semiconductor, its photons provide an
energy allowing electrons to break free and to move into the light, as a result
there is electric current under light exposure.
4 A.LABOURET, P.CUMUNEL, J-P BRAUN, B.FARAGGI «LES BASES
DE L'ENERGIE PHOTOVOLTAIQUES» p.34.
5 EMMANUEL RIOLET `'L'ENERGIE SOLAIRE ET PHOTOVOLATAIQUE POUR
LE PARTICULIER `'p.10.
2.3.2 Method of use of a photovoltaic panels
It is utmost important to reflect on the good use of solar
energy, by specifying what is possible and what is not yet possible. The main
advantage of the solar panel is the ability to provide a range of operating a
device necessitating a source of independent power.
The electrical equipment are fully autonomous but can be
moderated and placed outside or can be powered by panels exposed to the
outside6, the different types are:
? Lighting and home-entertainment system using a DC with a solar
module and battery.
? Houses and isolated using a telecommunication system has DC
with several solar modules and a string of batteries
? Pumping water using a system without a DC battery
? Professional equipment and solar
2.4 Regulatory and institutional aspects
The first point to underline is the fact that no structure is
put in place to regulate the solar energy, nonetheless an institutional
oriented state policy and budgetary especially on the area of renewable energy
such as wind turbine, thermal, hydrological, and solar is not developed.
However, the nomenclature of the member states of the community thus results
mainly in the classification by purpose, function and classification of
expenses by nature, divided into titles.
For this purpose the sun would be in the class
below7:
Product code
|
Label product
|
7146
|
Taxes on good and services
|
6 Anne Labouret `'INSTALLATIONS
PHOTOVOLTAIQUES».P13.
7
www.droit-afrique.com
`' DIRECTIVES PORTANT NOMANCLATURES
BUDGETAIRES» P.11
8 J-Lapôtre & P.P Louviez
`'ENERGIES RENOUVELABLES : LE PHOTOVOLTAIQUE ET L'EOLIEN
`'P.26.
9 A.LABOURET, P.CUMUNEL, J-P BRAUN, B.FARAGGI
»`'LES BASES DE L'ENERGIE
Categories are included in this tax extraction of minerals,
fossil fuels and other nonrenewable resources deposits belonging to private or
other public administrations and other taxes on goods and services.
In Cameroon, solar energy will be accessible to many families
wishing to fight against power cuts. However, the cost remains high.
In rural or undeveloped areas electricity remains a luxury; the
development of solar energy is a crucial means to improve the living conditions
of the inhabitants. However, the rate of sunshine in Cameroon is favourable
because it rises approximately to 4kwh/j/m2.
For this purpose, it is possible to return on investment in
less than 10 years on solar photovoltaic.
2.5 Environmental aspects
Environmental factors take into account the duration of daily
sunlight and annual local temperature. However, Cameroon enjoys a large
sunshine rate enough to allow the installation of photovoltaic panels. For this
purpose on a scale of 1 to 6, the rate of sunshine in Cameroon is at level
5.
In addition, the photovoltaic panel produces no waste like
most renewable or conventional energies. It is therefore beneficial for a
period of around thirty years. Then recycling is possible at the end of life
after restoration silicon cells, which will allow to create other new panels.
The ecological advantages it presents are as follows, after manufacture the
products does not relieve pollution, it is silent and does not affect the
environmental weather, in terms of installation it does not require an enormous
space8. Furthermore, it is important to note that this is an
important energy for my country because our ecosystem depends on human
activity. However, the current global warming is due to the release into the
atmosphere of greenhouse gas emissions9, the use of photovoltaic
panels in Cameroon will avoid in the near future
negative consequences on our environment.
In accordance with our environment, a solar installation for a
household in Cameroon possessing a television needs a list of specific
materials as listed below10:
> 2 solar modules of 50w-12Vcc
> 2 batteries of 100 Ah-12Vcc
> 1 regulator of 12Vcc-12A
> 1 converter DC/AC-100W-12Vcc/220Ac
> 4 energy saving bulbs 9W-12Vcc
> Accessories: 100m of Cables, 4 switches, support structures,
junction box,
mounting hardware
Figure.4: shows the solar system in a household
with a television. However, this facility represents a cost that we will study
in economics and commercial aspects.
2.6 Economical and Commercial aspects
? the characteristics of demand
The use of electricity is essential to facilitate the daily
lives of each household in Cameroon. Despite the law, which guarantees every
citizen's access to electricity more than half households are
excluded. To this end, less than 60% of the population does not benefit from
electricity.
Although rural electrification agencies were created,
connection rates in rural areas is less than 5%. According to a recent survey
AES-Sonel operator satisfies less than 25% of users and the electricity cost is
high. The connection cost is excessive and inaccessible to the vast majority of
consumers causing benefits unpopularity to AES-Sonel manifested by most
consumers who complained in the courts.
Figure 5 shows an overview of the evolution
of the demand and supply of electrical energy between the years 2007 to 2012 in
Cameroon. As demonstrated on the figure
PHOTOVOLTAIQUES» P.19.
10
www.gvepinternational.org
`' LES ENERGIES RENOUVELABLES : CAS DE
L'ENERGIE SOLAIRE».
below Cameroon went through an energy crisis which explains
the shortage of supply. Growth in electricity demand is estimated at 8% per
annual. Access to electricity oscillates at 6.6% in rural areas, the state
wants to raise this to 30% in 2020.
Despite its vast hydroelectric potential (second in Africa
after the Democratic Republic of Congo) power installed and operated in
Cameroon is estimated at 1060 megawatts only essentially divided between
hydroelectric and thermal sources, which form the grid.
Observed under-utilization of the installed capacity. In
reality, the amount of energy actually delivered is extremely low because of
the enormous technical failures of transmission and distribution of
electricity; this malfunction is between 30 and 40% of producible.
The production of electrical energy is based on the theory of
marginal cost and is the actual cost of sales kW, which is the cost of
reference in the sector of electric power. Globally, this marginal cost depends
on the source of energy production and is a function of two variables:
? The cost of producing power in a Basic Plan ? Technical loss in
transmission lines
Moreover, it is important to know that whatever technical loss
plays the role of regulating the electricity tariff. It must be said that the
rates applied to users incorporate both production costs of transmission and
distribution cost of transport losses. Consumer's electricity Bills increase
due to distribution charge, inflation and an inexorable purchasing power impose
by the producers.
Figure 6 represents the array of price ranges
per monthly consumption in kilowatt. We notice an increase of 7% for domestic
consumption and 8.5% for non-domestic consumption. To this end, we note that
the price of electricity increases significantly each year. Today it stands to
77.7 FCFA = 0.12 Euro per kilowatt.
Figure 7: The details in the diagram below
show the cost of installation of a solar system for a household in Cameroon.
After watching the charging system of Electrical Energy in
force in Cameroon, we see that the operator AES-Sonel uses part of the revenues
derive from huge cuts of electricity to finance transport operation of thermal
power plants. These revenues amounted to 40 million FCFA / year. This money can
be used to improve the transport lines and high tension that would stabilize
electricity prices and even pull them down. Upon reflection, we find that the
price per kilowatt is far too expensive for a household due to unreliable
service. It is therefore important that the government makes a considerable
effort to diversify the sources of supply.
In addition, the promotion of alternative energies like solar
could be an adequate solution because Cameroon has a potential that is elevated
to more than 20 times as compared to its hydro electrical potential. Sunshine
duration is 2000 hours and an average of 4.5 kWh/m2 /j.
? The characteristics of offer
In Cameroon, the supply of solar energy has increased
significantly; we can quote the creation of a rural electrification project
with major Cameroonian localities to electrify 250 households which will be
equivalent to 530 billion FCFA of investment. This project has been provided by
the companies Investricity (Irish-owned company) and
Hanwha (Korean company law), the two main investors
in this project therefore aim to produce 500 Megawatts and will be injected
into the national network of electricity production of Cameroon. This project
could overcome the problem of energetic deficit suffered by Cameroon.
This project will certainly solve the problem of energetic
deficit in Cameroon; because of the high cost of these equipments, it is
accessible only to the urban population and inaccessible to the rural
population. However, the installation of a solar system is around 1 million
FCFA.
In Cameroon, specialized structures in this area are oriented
only in the mounting kit solar and their maintenance. We have identified few
companies in this sector.
Following the studied aspects, Cameroon has enough potential
to justify the use of solar panels as an alternative energy. Due to its
relatively high rate of sunshine, the environment is an advantage favouring the
installation of these panels in both the rural and urban areas. Yet,
popularization of solar energy is not completely tangible in Cameroon due to
the fact that the sector is not liberalized.
Hence it follows the high tax of custom rates, a lack of
measures related to the import of the material.
In general, these problems represent obstacles to funding
solar panels that we will detail below according to Institutional, financial
and political aspects.
3 Barriers to financing of photovoltaic panels in
Cameroon
3.1 Institutional Barriers
Energy production in Cameroon is characterized by inequality
between supply, unstable distribution and growing demand. However, the recovery
of the energetic system will increase the electricity production based on the
exploitation of alternative energy sources like solar.
The potential solar system of Cameroon is conducive to the
implementation of large solar scale infrastructure to improve industrial
development and distribution of electricity in every household; it will be an
essential factor for the functioning of the Cameroonian economy.
The Government's plans however suffer several obstacles in
terms of:
? Transparency
? Corruption
? Business Environment and accountability
? Taxation high
? Urbanization uncontrolled
However, we will develop some points, which attest to the poor
governance in Cameroon.
3.1.1 Question of corruption
From 2011 to 2013, Cameroon has moved from 134th to 144th
corrupt country. Perceived as one of the most corrupt countries in the world,
It is placed in front of 143 countries on the index of perceptions of
corruption (CPI). Unfortunately in recent years, Cameroon lost points, a sign
that show the increasing level of corruption. Currently, the new system of
International transparency of Cameroon rounded 26 points out of 100.
The Central African Republic and Congo democratic republic had
the same points while Chad and Equatorial Guinea had the lowest points, between
20 and 19/10011. Corruption is an obstacle to finance photovoltaic
panels in Cameroon.
11 www.lanouvelleexpression.info
www.transparency.org
3.1.2 Question of Competitiveness
Regarding the competitiveness Cameroon is faced with a high
cost of inputs due to lower supply of energy to the domestic need, low
densification of the road network and lack of efficient seaport services.
Infrastructure (123th place) and the complexity of financial
markets (ranked 125th) are the areas in which the country has the lowest
performance. The low competitiveness factors are also explained by the
complexity of the business environment (112th). Global competitiveness index is
ranked 116th in Cameroon. The appreciation of these indicators confirms the
necessity to pursue reforms for improvement of the environment for private
sector.
Many governmental barriers push investors to moderate their
investments in Cameroon. As part of the extension of solar energy, Cameroon
should strengthen its governance and strategic management of the state. We
suggest that to this effect
? An improvement should be made in public financial management
and revenue mobilization systems in order to increase the investment rate over
18%.
? Improve the environment of the private sector through
establishment of technical assistance for the improvement of performance
? Facilitate access to the property so as to improve and
manage the issue of urbanization in Cameroon.
3.2 Economical and Financial barriers For this purpose
we apprehend one hypothesis:
3.2.1 Question of currency
Cameroon as part of the Franc zone (CFA) was associated with
the Euro on 1 January 1999 by a peg. (1 euro = 655.95 FCFA).
The Central Bank of Cameroon, like other countries of the
Franc zone, is connected by French treasure following the mechanism of the
operational account, which is in principle a technique of collecting currency
to ensure its international credibility.
This responsibility is heavy for Cameroon because:
? It deprives the Cameroon economic autonomy of monetary
policy and it is an obstacle to the development process in Cameroon.
? Secondly, the fact that the CFA Franc is tied to Euro, shows
that it is a very flexible currency, and leads to the devaluation of the CFA
Franc, as it significantly slows down exports and imports and hinders
competitiveness of the national economy.
For a country like Cameroon, the trade balance deficit
undergoes considerable importation and double exportation. It is clear that the
project to install solar panels in Cameroon will necessitate the importation of
raw material. But the Mechanism of the Franc Zone encourages a form of laziness
in economics, leading to a tendency of excess importation and less
exportation.
Thus, at this rate, Cameroon is a net importer of consumer
goods. In general, we think that a fixed parity of the CFA Franc and a fixed
exchange rate will be beneficial for these states , but these are the same
countries that fail to develop the industrial sectors, which waive the Small
and Medium local firms who faces high costs of importation in terms of
currencies CFA Franc (as linked to the Euro) and thus fail to compete with
cheap imports produced in weaker currencies (Chinese Yuan) or in countries with
strong currency that subsidize their exports (Swiss Franc). We believe that the
CFA Franc primarily benefits foreign companies as well as those located in
Africa because they repatriate their capital in Europe and enjoy absence of
exchange rate risk, while African consumers do not enjoy any advantages in
terms of exportations.
According to the data, we can believe that the CFA Franc is an
obstacle to the development of the competitiveness of the concurrency and local
businesses also to the industrialization of Cameroon.
Studies we have conducted show that the success of a project
lies less in its technical execution but depends mostly to its economic or
financial profitability. The challenge to restore funding for photovoltaic
panels in Cameroon is to develop
models that can generate technologies to consumers at
affordable prices without destroying the management model of energetic system
in Cameroon. Unfavourable political environment with minimal government support
for renewable energy subject renewable energy projects to the private sector in
the economy.
To this end, we have realized an economic model aimed at
reducing the high costs of displaying Photovoltaic firm in each household while
providing quality services according to the international standard.
This model meets the reduced cost issues mentioned throughout
this study.
4 Analysis of an investment project of photovoltaic
panels in Cameroon
Previously we were able to enumerate the institutional,
economical and financial barriers concerning the financing of photovoltaic
panels in Cameroon. Considering the characteristics of Cameroon in the
socio-economical, and geographical aspects, we will simulate a project Based on
the internal rate of return, which is a tool for investment decision. Our
project would be viable only if its internal rate of return is sufficiently
higher by considering the specific premium risk to the type of project.
In principle, we must be able to determine the grounds on
which the government can intervene in order to realize these types of project
with return on investment.
4.1 Operational hypothesis
Our project is to install a field of solar panels with a
capacity of 1MW. In principle 1MW = 1,000,000 watts per year, however this
production will amount to 2000MWH. The initial investment amounts to EUR 3
million or (1.98 Billion FCFA) over a period of 25 years.
To this end we consider that the operating costs consist
mainly of caretaking and cleaning. It was estimated that 27 Euros/MWh (17,710
FCFA/MWh) is the load factor of the field that corresponds to the number of
hours in the year in which the fieldwork is 2000 hours. These data allow us to
determine the efficiency rate of the field is (2000heures / 24 hours * 365
days) = 22.80%
4.2 Recovery Hypothesis
In our first hypothesis we proceed to calculate the weighted
average cost of capital which is the average annual rate of return expected by
shareholders and creditors, in return for their investment. In general, the
WACC is used to measure what the company owes to all those who contributed
capital. In our case we are considering a financing structure composed of:
· MVe: 60% of foreign
funds (1.2 billion FCFA)
· MVd: 40% of equity (0.787
Billion FCFA)
· T: 30% tax rate normative
· Rd: 12% of the cost of
equity
· Re: 15% of the cost of foreign
funds
· 3.2% inflation12
0,6 + 0,4 0,6 + 0,4
We will consider that WACC takes into account a risk premium for
equities as well as risk premium countries of the CEMAC zone and will not take
into account the maintenance investments. Considering these data the
WACC13 is calculated as:
Numerical application
WACC
WACC = 12.36%
12
www.investiraucameroun.com
13
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_average_cost_of_capital
4.3 Result
The results obtained on the basis of our hypotheses according
to the average price of electricity sold in the CEMAC zone (77.7 FCFA / KWh)
yields a rate of return of 10.95%, a net present value (NPV) of negative -
66MFCFA. The IRR (Internal rate of return) is less than the WACC (12.34%),
which represents the minimum rate of return an investor would expect from this
type of project.
Figure 8 shows how we obtain the results of
IRR and NPV.
At first glance, this project is not possible because it does
not bring enough capital invested. Therefore the amount of FCFA 77.7 does not
approve of sufficient profitability compared to the level of profitability that
we expect from this type of project.
14
WWW.OECD.ORG
5 Conclusion of the model
Following the previous results on sales prices and cost
constraints, under these conditions a solar project could not be realized. We
are not surprised because we said earlier that production of solar electricity
is relatively expensive in Cameroon. According to the solar projects realized
in countries like Switzerland or France we can say they have the mechanisms
necessary to established positive result for this type of project.
Although the radiation level is high in Cameroon that does not
change the deficit that we encounter in our calculations, this is due to the
results obtained at the WACC (12.35%). Recently, solar system projects have
been launched in France, Switzerland and other European countries despite the
fact that they do not possess many natural advantages as Africa. At first, a
project equivalent would have been born with a WACC between 11 to 14% in
Europe; the surplus efficiency characterized by a minimum number of hours is
500 hours which gives a better Internal rate of return (IRR). In general, this
explained by the fact that Cameroon is rated at level 7 according to the
country risk classification by the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development)14, while the introduction of a risk premium changes
the WACC. As a result, foreign investment clients consider that the risks of
investment in Cameroon still remain very elevated.
5.1 General Conclusion:
Depending on the different questions asked and practical cases
studied, this research could conclude that solar energy is a real alternative
to settle the deficit in electric power in Cameroon.
However, the realization of such a project in Cameroon depends
on several aspects namely: institutional, environmental, economical and
financial aspects but unfortunately these aspect are characterised by lot of
barriers which can hinder the installation of photovoltaic panels in Cameroon.
Though a middle-class household
with the moderate income revenue can probably afford for these
photovoltaic panels, obstacles such as: corruption, elevated taxation,
non-controlled urbanization and pegged currency can be a barrier.
Secondly, we have simulated a case study to evaluate the
feasibility of the project based on the level of profitability we expect, such
a project with a level of weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 12%, but
it follows the net present value which was negative showing an insufficient
level of profitability compared to the expected level of profitability.
Finally, funding for solar panels is a luxury for Cameroon
therefore we are not able to afford under such conditions, nevertheless the
government should be incentive based on a policy of proactive actions at
reducing the cost that would be a solution. At the same, to guarantee a price
paid to producers of renewable energy for a given period is a second solution.
Also, it can create the mechanisms through which the state finances in cash
part of the initial investment, that would be a third solution. Finally, the
government can also reduce the rate of taxation imposed on photovoltaic panels
producers; it can eventually establish a fixed guarantee rate to encourage
solar energy investment15
15 La Revue : `'LE SOLAIRE ESPOIR DE LA
PLANETE»P.14
Bibliography & References
? Emmanuel Riolet
Title: L'Energie Solaire et photovoltaïque pour le
particulier
Area/ Date: France 2010
? J-Lapôtre & P.P Louviez
Title: Energies Renouvelables: Le photovoltaïque et
éolien
Area/Date: France 2012
? Anne Labouret
Title: Installations Photovoltaïques
Area/Date: France 17 October 2012
? A.LABOURET, P.CUMUNEL, J-P BRAUN, B.FARAGGI
Title: »`'LES BASES DE
L'ENERGIE PHOTOVOLTAIQUES»
Area/Date: France 2011
? La Revue
Title: Le solaire espoir de la planète
Area/ Date: France May 2011
Articles:
« Energie Solaire: Faut-il croire au
photovoltaïque?»
www.jeuneafrique.com
«Electricité en Afrique: l'auto crise»
www.Armelopost.wordpress.com
`'créneaux porteurs du secteur secondaire
`'
www.dasp-senegal.com»
`'Directives portant nomenclature budgétaire»
www.droit-afrique.com
`'
`' Les énergies renouvelables : cas de
l'énergie solaire»
www.gvepinternational.org
'The Sun Rescues Rural Cameroonians from «Incessant
Darkness» http://www.ipsnews.net/
Web sites:
www.camereco.com
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_panel
www.lanouvelleexpression.info
www.transparency.org
www.investiraucameroun.com
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_average_cost_of_capital
www.thecommonweath.org
www.cameroon-photovoltaic.info
WWW.OECD.ORG
Documents:
? Mise en oeuvre de l'agenda 21 pour le Cameroun
Title: Rapport national du Cameroun sur l'environnement et le
développement
durable 2001
? Cameroon &Renewable Energy 2009
? The solar Energy Initiative 2011
APPENDICES
Figure 1: Map of Cameroon Source:
Commonwealth.org
Figure 2 : Solar Panel Diagram
An electrical device that converts the energy of light directly
into electricity by the photovoltaic effect
Source: Ron Curtis & Mr
Solar.com
Figure 3: solar cell
Here is a diagram explaining the operation of a solar cell
Source:
Lasmotorhomes.com
Figure 4: A solar system in a household (with a
television)
Source:
Lasmotorhomes.com
Figure 5: Evolution of the demand and supply of
electrical energy Source:
www.camereco.com
Figure 6: Price ranges per kilowatt of the consumption of
a solar equipment Source:
www.agencecofin.com
.
Figure 7: Installation's cost of a solar systemn in a
household in Cameroon Source: own representation
Figure 8 : internal rate of return and NPV
Source: own representation
Cash flows
|
Discount factor
|
Interest rate
|
Discount cash Flow
|
Capital
|
-3'000'000
|
|
-3'000'000
|
Revenu N
|
550'000
|
0.909
|
499950
|
Revenu N+1
|
1'100'000
|
0.8264
|
909040
|
Revenu N+2
|
2'200'000
|
0.751
|
1652200
|
VAN
|
-66'099
|
|
Discount rate
|
12%
|
IRR
|
10.95%
|
|