Annexes :
Annexe 1 : Base de données
|
Année
|
TXCROIS
|
TINV
|
TPOP
|
TOUV
|
DETPIB
|
DETPIB2
|
SDET
|
APD
|
PIBH
|
|
1985
|
4,4721264
|
15,295977
|
2,89
|
26,644543
|
21,475446
|
461,1948
|
7,9277744
|
39,449504
|
0,0002895
|
|
1986
|
-0,751791
|
19,924819
|
2,9
|
21,836117
|
21,096525
|
445,06337
|
10,60795
|
42,138931
|
0,0002873
|
|
1987
|
-4,339874
|
22,816868
|
2,93
|
20,456504
|
21,315918
|
454,36835
|
21,247393
|
37,273116
|
0,0002749
|
|
1988
|
0,360547
|
18,167367
|
2,99
|
19,190184
|
22,16158
|
491,13562
|
23,178376
|
51,8607
|
0,0002759
|
|
1989
|
-5,820203
|
18,169003
|
3,1
|
16,418773
|
18,521337
|
343,03991
|
34,37856
|
90,536304
|
0,0002598
|
|
1990
|
5,5071072
|
19,993293
|
3,24
|
22,197074
|
17,770307
|
315,7838
|
5,6028496
|
68,431125
|
0,0002741
|
|
1991
|
0,7647007
|
21,071277
|
3,38
|
26,203656
|
19,821966
|
392,91035
|
3,921805
|
82,713977
|
0,0002762
|
|
1992
|
-0,5626
|
21,800383
|
3,48
|
30,507023
|
19,214292
|
369,18902
|
4,9501487
|
73,790803
|
0,0002747
|
|
1993
|
2,1951902
|
22,308268
|
3,5
|
31,741567
|
20,734275
|
429,91016
|
5,5211404
|
84,282905
|
0,0002807
|
|
1994
|
-1,415684
|
21,425056
|
3,43
|
28,99744
|
43,703196
|
1909,9694
|
6,5433524
|
133,79484
|
0,0002767
|
|
1995
|
2,6093715
|
23,319123
|
3,29
|
28,073132
|
41,9287
|
1758,0158
|
6,1779862
|
131,75947
|
0,0002839
|
|
1996
|
1,0940149
|
22,699396
|
3,15
|
24,867573
|
41,116818
|
1690,5927
|
5,6454761
|
152,68912
|
0,000287
|
|
1997
|
2,5806444
|
23,258571
|
3,03
|
26,025625
|
40,451964
|
1636,3614
|
7,5788115
|
142,72809
|
0,0002944
|
|
1998
|
0,930263
|
23,323249
|
2,96
|
27,624621
|
40,121904
|
1609,7672
|
6,8421865
|
119,42803
|
0,0002972
|
|
1999
|
2,2774714
|
23,795419
|
2,95
|
30,289791
|
41,844392
|
1750,9531
|
7,9808017
|
143,37311
|
0,000304
|
|
2000
|
2,7478002
|
22,347619
|
2,98
|
25,35093
|
42,706244
|
1823,8233
|
7,546288
|
180,50615
|
0,0003123
|
|
2001
|
2,1931221
|
24,453201
|
3,02
|
26,248561
|
43,444169
|
1887,3958
|
4,2085918
|
205,57282
|
0,0003192
|
|
2002
|
1,5080165
|
22,517453
|
3,04
|
25,697059
|
40,220013
|
1617,6494
|
4,0638908
|
154,17721
|
0,000324
|
|
2003
|
0,3469909
|
23,534705
|
3,04
|
25,755655
|
34,32533
|
1178,2283
|
3,2434022
|
175,46351
|
0,0003251
|
|
2004
|
1,3378533
|
21,804011
|
3,01
|
23,411797
|
32,531725
|
1058,3131
|
3,2506483
|
206,83875
|
0,0003294
|
|
2005
|
-1,247442
|
20,097039
|
2,95
|
23,668605
|
35,537371
|
1262,9048
|
2,7925418
|
184,35226
|
0,0003253
|
|
2006
|
0,9783319
|
18,948655
|
2,9
|
23,696007
|
9,8736756
|
97,48947
|
2,9493657
|
209,32137
|
0,0003285
|
|
2007
|
3,004341
|
22,338343
|
2,85
|
28,902482
|
19,003495
|
361,13283
|
2,1355617
|
227,82692
|
0,0003384
|
|
2008
|
1,9697294
|
21,820121
|
2,82
|
29,729415
|
23,7762
|
565,30771
|
1,81692
|
285,47092
|
0,0003451
|
|
2009
|
-0,505468
|
22,883288
|
2,81
|
29,075485
|
27,114706
|
735,20729
|
5,0917703
|
319,54557
|
0,0003433
|
|
2010
|
-0,715295
|
24,563082
|
2,81
|
30,32434
|
31,398073
|
985,83899
|
2,8522703
|
341,75842
|
0,0003409
|
|
2011
|
0,1163546
|
24,485055
|
2,8
|
27,308348
|
35,096051
|
1231,7328
|
3,9913053
|
317,32182
|
0,0003413
|
|
2012
|
1,9253406
|
23,451537
|
2,8
|
30,376773
|
32,844563
|
1078,7653
|
4,4563067
|
259,47114
|
0,0003478
|
|
2013
|
4,2401927
|
31,825325
|
2,79
|
35,811761
|
31,539161
|
994,7187
|
5,5227649
|
326,19775
|
0,0003626
|
|
2014
|
3,4336036
|
33,978796
|
2,78
|
40,18975
|
37,893175
|
1435,8927
|
3,1274165
|
296,39525
|
0,000375
|
|
2015
|
-0,696393
|
32,009242
|
2,77
|
35,806325
|
52,824852
|
2790,465
|
4,1393349
|
254,47305
|
0,0003724
|
|
2016
|
1,1310919
|
30,693298
|
2,76
|
37,640754
|
61,373119
|
3766,6597
|
2,91102
|
292,37724
|
0,0003766
|
|
2017
|
2,7178302
|
35,262022
|
2,75
|
41,654255
|
67,711155
|
4584,8005
|
4,902717
|
393,24239
|
0,0003869
|
Annexes 2 : Tableau d'analyse
descriptive
|
TXCROIS
|
PIBHR
|
TINV
|
TPOP
|
TOUV
|
DETPIB
|
DETPIB2
|
SDET
|
LOGAPD
|
|
Mean
|
0.934849
|
0.000314
|
23.72140
|
3.000313
|
27.97117
|
33.40676
|
1282.918
|
6.849342
|
5.062434
|
|
Median
|
1.112553
|
0.000316
|
22.75813
|
2.955000
|
27.46648
|
33.58495
|
1128.497
|
4.926433
|
5.181598
|
|
Maximum
|
5.507107
|
0.000377
|
35.26202
|
3.500000
|
41.65425
|
67.71115
|
4584.800
|
34.37856
|
5.974426
|
|
Minimum
|
-5.820203
|
0.000260
|
18.16737
|
2.750000
|
16.41877
|
9.873676
|
97.48947
|
1.816920
|
3.618272
|
|
Std. Dev.
|
2.268861
|
3.41E-05
|
4.336038
|
0.219464
|
5.761604
|
13.12596
|
998.5394
|
6.864656
|
0.636968
|
|
Skewness
|
-0.879992
|
0.269672
|
1.362270
|
0.955621
|
0.507746
|
0.557484
|
1.555035
|
2.784003
|
0.650479
|
|
Kurtosis
|
4.526797
|
1.900625
|
4.081788
|
2.916048
|
3.166401
|
3.161259
|
5.712783
|
10.37165
|
2.543836
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jarque-Bera
|
7.238205
|
1.999358
|
11.45785
|
4.879862
|
1.411887
|
1.692212
|
22.70896
|
113.7919
|
2.534102
|
|
Probability
|
0.026807
|
0.367998
|
0.003251
|
0.087167
|
0.493643
|
0.429083
|
0.000012
|
0.000000
|
0.281661
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sum
|
29.91516
|
0.010044
|
759.0849
|
96.01000
|
895.0774
|
1069.016
|
41053.39
|
219.1790
|
161.9979
|
|
Sum Sq. Dev.
|
159.5796
|
3.60E-08
|
582.8381
|
1.493097
|
1029.079
|
5341.019
|
30909508
|
1460.828
|
12.57759
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Observations
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
32
|
Annexe 3 : Test de stationnarité à
niveau.
· TXCROIS
|
Null Hypothesis: TXCROIS has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-6,152760
|
0,0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3,653730
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-2,957110
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2,617434
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
· PIBH
|
Null Hypothesis: PIBH has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
|
|
|
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-3,912678
|
0,0235
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-4,284580
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3,562882
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-3,215267
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
· TINV
|
Null Hypothesis: TINV has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
|
|
|
Lag Length: 8 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-3,932800
|
0,0263
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-4,394309
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3,612199
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-3,243079
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
· TPOP
|
Null Hypothesis: TPOP has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
|
|
|
Lag Length: 4 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-3,847334
|
0,0287
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-4,323979
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3,580623
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-3,225334
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
· TOUV
|
Null Hypothesis: TOUV has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-2,070137
|
0,5421
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-4,273277
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3,557759
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-3,212361
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
· DETPIB
|
Null Hypothesis: DETPIB has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
0,797839
|
0,8801
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.639210
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1,951687
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1,610579
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
· DETPIB2
|
Null Hypothesis: DETPIB2 has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
1,683009
|
0,9750
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2,639210
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1,951687
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1,610579
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
· SDET
|
Null Hypothesis: SDET has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-1,655025
|
0,0918
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.641672
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1,952066
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1,610400
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
· LOGAPD
|
Null Hypothesis: LOGAPD has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-2,963630
|
0,1575
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-4,273277
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3,557759
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-3,212361
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Annexe 4 : Test de stationnarité en
différence première
· D(TOUV)
|
Null Hypothesis: D(TOUV) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-4,850498
|
0,0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2,641672
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1,952066
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1,610400
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
· D(DETPIB)
|
Null Hypothesis: D(DETPIB) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-5,244140
|
0,0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2,641672
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1,952066
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1,610400
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
· D(DETPIB2)
|
Null Hypothesis: D(DETPIB2) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-3,742880
|
0,0005
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2,641672
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1,952066
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1,610400
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
· D(SDET)
|
Null Hypothesis: D(SDET) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-6,709005
|
0,0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2,641672
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1,952066
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1,610400
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
· D(LOGAPD)
|
Null Hypothesis: D(LOGAPD) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-6,271143
|
0,0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3,661661
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-2,960411
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.619160
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
Annexe 5 : Estimation
économétrique : méthode MCO
|
Dependent Variable: TXCROIS
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 10/21/19 Time: 15:37
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1986 2017
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 32 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(TOUV)
|
0.018413
|
0.111219
|
0.165554
|
0.8700
|
|
TINV
|
0.348726
|
0.112110
|
3.110570
|
0.0049
|
|
TPOP
|
0.199027
|
2.150571
|
0.092546
|
0.9271
|
|
D(DETPIB)
|
0.232382
|
0.121286
|
1.915988
|
0.0679
|
|
D(DETPIB2)
|
-0.005397
|
0.002117
|
-2.549338
|
0.0179
|
|
D(SDET)
|
-0.261891
|
0.053393
|
-4.904957
|
0.0001
|
|
D(LOGAPD)
|
1.951818
|
1.476689
|
1.321753
|
0.1992
|
|
PIBH(-1)
|
307.7807
|
17352.73
|
0.017737
|
0.9860
|
|
C
|
-7.845146
|
10.77104
|
-0.728356
|
0.4737
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.697288
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.934849
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.591997
|
S.D. dependent var
|
2.268861
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
1.449238
|
Akaike info criterion
|
3.812211
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
48.30667
|
Schwarz criterion
|
4.224449
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-51.99537
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
3.948856
|
|
F-statistic
|
6.622477
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.936546
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000165
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Annexe 6 : Etude de la
normalité (Test de Jarque-Bera (1984)
Annexe 7 : Test
d'hetéroscédasticité de Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey
|
Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
0.811249
|
Prob. F(8,23)
|
0.6000
|
|
Obs*R-squared
|
7.042383
|
Prob. Chi-Square(8)
|
0.5321
|
|
Scaled explained SS
|
3.662555
|
Prob. Chi-Square(8)
|
0.8862
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Annexe 8 : Test d'autocorrélation de
Breusch-Godfrey
|
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
0.026259
|
Prob. F(1,22)
|
0.8727
|
|
Obs*R-squared
|
0.038149
|
Prob. Chi-Square(1)
|
0.8451
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
